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Diamondbacks 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Diamondbacks Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.001)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nick Ahmed, actual: 210 198 42 10 1 2 60 12 0 0 0 0 398
Nick Ahmed, projected: 210 192 45 10 2 5 72 14 1 2 1 0 576
Dominic Canzone, actual: 41 38 9 2 0 1 14 2 0 0 1 0 532
Dominic Canzone, projected: 41 39 9 3 0 1 16 2 0 0 0 0 469
Corbin Carroll, actual: 645 565 161 30 10 25 286 57 6 4 13 0 1085
Corbin Carroll, projected: 645 568 160 33 10 25 287 55 5 3 14 0 1054
Diego Castillo, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Diego Castillo, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dominic Fletcher, actual: 102 93 28 5 1 2 41 7 2 0 0 0 776
Dominic Fletcher, projected: 102 93 28 5 1 2 41 7 2 0 0 0 776
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., actual: 592 551 144 35 2 24 255 33 0 2 6 0 709
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., projected: 592 549 153 33 2 22 256 34 1 4 5 0 799
José Herrera, actual: 120 101 21 5 0 0 26 13 5 1 0 0 367
José Herrera, projected: 120 104 21 3 0 0 24 11 4 0 0 0 284
Carson Kelly, actual: 92 84 19 3 0 1 25 7 0 1 0 0 456
Carson Kelly, projected: 92 81 18 4 0 3 30 9 0 1 1 0 612
Buddy Kennedy, actual: 29 24 4 1 0 0 5 4 0 0 1 0 389
Buddy Kennedy, projected: 29 25 5 1 0 0 8 3 0 0 0 0 397
Jordan Lawlar, actual: 34 31 4 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 0 163
Jordan Lawlar, projected: 34 31 4 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 0 163
Kyle Lewis, actual: 54 51 8 2 0 1 13 3 0 0 0 0 263
Kyle Lewis, projected: 54 48 11 1 0 2 20 6 0 0 0 0 690
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Evan Longoria, actual: 237 211 47 9 0 11 89 23 0 3 0 0 662
Evan Longoria, projected: 237 211 56 12 1 10 99 21 0 3 2 0 842
Ketel Marte, actual: 650 569 157 26 9 25 276 71 0 5 5 0 960
Ketel Marte, projected: 650 584 163 36 7 18 265 56 1 5 4 0 871
Jake McCarthy, actual: 312 276 67 7 5 2 90 26 4 1 5 0 633
Jake McCarthy, projected: 312 278 73 11 3 5 106 24 3 1 6 0 761
Gabriel Moreno, actual: 380 341 97 19 1 7 139 29 0 7 3 0 764
Gabriel Moreno, projected: 380 344 100 17 1 7 138 28 0 6 3 0 775
Geraldo Perdomo, actual: 495 407 100 20 4 6 146 64 14 4 6 0 741
Geraldo Perdomo, projected: 495 417 92 16 3 5 131 58 12 3 5 0 562
Jace Peterson, actual: 106 93 17 3 2 0 24 11 1 0 1 0 373
Jace Peterson, projected: 106 92 21 4 1 2 31 12 1 1 1 0 625
Tommy Pham, actual: 217 195 47 12 2 6 81 18 0 3 1 0 655
Tommy Pham, projected: 217 188 49 9 1 7 82 25 0 1 2 0 841
Emmanuel Rivera, actual: 283 257 67 13 0 4 92 22 0 4 0 0 611
Emmanuel Rivera, projected: 283 259 64 13 1 7 98 20 0 2 2 0 617
Josh Rojas, actual: 216 189 43 13 0 0 56 18 2 4 1 2 529
Josh Rojas, projected: 216 190 48 11 1 3 70 22 1 2 1 1 708
Pavin Smith, actual: 228 191 36 5 0 7 62 35 0 0 1 1 595
Pavin Smith, projected: 228 202 49 9 1 6 77 23 0 1 1 0 678
Alek Thomas, actual: 402 374 86 17 5 9 140 19 2 3 4 0 548
Alek Thomas, projected: 402 374 86 17 3 8 134 20 1 4 3 0 520
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Christian Walker, actual: 661 582 150 36 2 33 289 62 0 8 8 1 905
Christian Walker, projected: 661 584 146 32 2 29 270 64 0 5 8 0 817
Seby Zavala, actual: 17 14 5 1 0 0 6 2 0 0 1 0 1473
Seby Zavala, projected: 17 15 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 357
Diamondbacks, Actual: 6124 5436 1359 274 44 166 2219 540 36 50 58 4 730
Diamondbacks, Projected: 6124 5469 1404 281 40 167 2264 517 32 44 60 1 739
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.250 0.257
Slugging Average: 0.408 0.414
Walks (per PA): 0.088 0.084
SOs (per PA): 0.204 0.204
On-Base Average: 0.322 0.325
Power Factor: 1.633 1.613
OPS: 0.730 0.739
TOP Runs (to date): 746 735

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 11 greater than Projected Runs.





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