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Braves 2021 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2021 Braves Projected Pitching

Through games of Saturday, 10 April 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.002)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Ian Anderson, actual: 42 38 9 0 0 3 18 3 1 0 0 0 739
Ian Anderson, projected: 42 37 7 1 0 1 11 4 0 0 0 0 499
Grant Dayton, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Grant Dayton, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Max Fried, actual: 39 33 14 4 0 1 21 3 0 2 1 0 2287
Max Fried, projected: 39 35 9 2 0 1 14 3 0 0 1 0 640
Luke Jackson, actual: 10 7 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 515
Luke Jackson, projected: 10 9 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 701
Nate Jones, actual: 12 10 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 310
Nate Jones, projected: 12 11 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 425
Chris Martin, actual: 10 9 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 1765
Chris Martin, projected: 10 10 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 510
Tyler Matzek, actual: 19 15 2 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 196
Tyler Matzek, projected: 19 17 4 1 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 508
A.J. Minter, actual: 18 16 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 530
A.J. Minter, projected: 18 16 4 1 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 587
Charlie Morton, actual: 45 41 10 1 0 0 11 3 0 0 1 0 379
Charlie Morton, projected: 45 40 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 1 0 643
Sean Newcomb, actual: 15 12 2 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 484
Sean Newcomb, projected: 15 13 3 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 570
Will Smith, actual: 14 11 3 1 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 0 867
Will Smith, projected: 14 13 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 326
Drew Smyly, actual: 23 22 4 1 0 1 8 1 0 0 0 0 472
Drew Smyly, projected: 23 21 5 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 743
Josh Tomlin, actual: 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Tomlin, projected: 11 10 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 535
Huascar Ynoa, actual: 21 20 3 2 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 132
Huascar Ynoa, projected: 21 18 5 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 0 762
Braves, Actual: 280 245 58 10 0 5 83 26 2 2 5 0 588
Braves, Projected: 280 251 62 13 0 4 96 24 0 0 2 0 580
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.237 0.247
Slugging Average: 0.339 0.382
Walks (per PA): 0.093 0.086
SOs (per PA): 0.296 0.239
On-Base Average: 0.320 0.318
Power Factor: 1.431 1.548
OPS: 0.659 0.700
TPP Runs (to date): 26 27

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -1 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 11 April 2021, at 6:21 am Pacific Time.