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Braves 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Braves Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.99)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Kolby Allard, actual: 56 52 16 3 0 2 25 4 0 0 0 0 947
Kolby Allard, projected: 55 50 14 2 0 3 24 4 0 0 0 0 904
Nick Anderson, actual: 141 131 30 9 0 3 48 9 0 1 0 0 497
Nick Anderson, projected: 140 129 26 6 1 4 46 9 0 1 1 0 472
Jesse Chavez, actual: 144 128 26 4 1 2 38 12 0 1 3 0 523
Jesse Chavez, projected: 143 129 34 6 1 5 55 11 1 1 1 0 746
Yonny Chirinos, actual: 105 96 33 5 0 5 53 7 0 1 1 0 1220
Yonny Chirinos, projected: 104 95 24 5 0 4 40 7 0 1 1 0 692
Dylan Dodd, actual: 164 151 53 13 0 9 93 12 0 0 1 0 1322
Dylan Dodd, projected: 162 150 52 13 0 9 92 12 0 0 1 0 1320
Bryce Elder, actual: 732 654 160 32 3 19 255 63 1 5 8 1 661
Bryce Elder, projected: 725 644 154 32 2 17 243 65 2 5 8 1 636
Max Fried, actual: 311 289 70 8 0 7 99 18 1 1 2 0 499
Max Fried, projected: 308 282 68 13 1 7 102 20 1 2 3 0 564
Brad Hand, actual: 79 68 19 4 1 2 31 6 3 0 2 0 784
Brad Hand, projected: 78 69 16 4 0 2 26 7 1 1 1 0 624
Taylor Hearn, actual: 5 3 2 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 13203
Taylor Hearn, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 763
Ben Heller, actual: 82 69 16 1 1 2 25 11 0 0 2 0 727
Ben Heller, projected: 81 69 16 2 1 3 28 10 0 0 2 0 796
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Daysbel Hernández, actual: 20 17 6 0 0 1 9 3 0 0 0 0 1656
Daysbel Hernández, projected: 20 17 6 0 0 1 9 3 0 0 0 0 1656
Raisel Iglesias, actual: 231 214 51 9 0 7 81 15 0 2 0 0 583
Raisel Iglesias, projected: 229 208 45 9 0 7 74 16 1 1 2 0 524
Joe Jiménez, actual: 238 219 51 12 1 9 92 14 2 1 2 0 683
Joe Jiménez, projected: 236 209 50 12 1 8 88 20 0 2 4 0 758
Pierce Johnson, actual: 89 84 16 3 0 3 28 5 0 0 0 0 380
Pierce Johnson, projected: 88 77 18 4 0 2 31 10 0 1 0 0 628
Dylan Lee, actual: 101 91 24 3 0 4 39 8 2 0 0 0 754
Dylan Lee, projected: 100 93 22 3 0 3 35 6 1 1 0 0 563
Nicky Lopez, actual: 13 11 4 0 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 0 1839
Nicky Lopez, projected: 13 12 5 0 0 2 11 1 0 0 0 0 2403
Lucas Luetge, actual: 65 56 17 1 0 2 24 7 0 1 1 0 1093
Lucas Luetge, projected: 64 57 15 3 0 1 22 6 0 1 1 0 738
Collin McHugh, actual: 268 239 70 10 0 5 95 22 2 0 4 1 833
Collin McHugh, projected: 265 242 60 12 1 7 95 18 1 1 3 0 626
A.J. Minter, actual: 260 237 56 8 1 6 84 21 0 2 0 0 574
A.J. Minter, projected: 257 231 53 12 1 4 80 22 1 2 1 0 554
Charlie Morton, actual: 716 615 150 30 3 14 228 83 2 3 12 1 724
Charlie Morton, projected: 709 624 155 30 4 15 238 61 5 4 14 0 683
Dereck Rodríguez, actual: 26 22 8 4 0 2 18 4 0 0 0 0 2064
Dereck Rodríguez, projected: 26 23 6 1 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 668
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Jared Shuster, actual: 230 201 53 10 2 7 88 26 0 2 1 0 861
Jared Shuster, projected: 228 199 52 10 2 7 87 26 0 2 1 0 865
AJ Smith-Shawver, actual: 105 93 17 1 0 7 39 11 0 0 1 0 708
AJ Smith-Shawver, projected: 104 92 17 1 0 7 39 11 0 0 1 0 722
Michael Soroka, actual: 145 128 36 8 0 9 71 12 1 0 4 0 1027
Michael Soroka, projected: 144 131 33 6 0 3 49 9 1 0 2 0 565
Jackson Stephens, actual: 52 46 13 1 0 1 17 5 1 0 0 0 760
Jackson Stephens, projected: 51 46 12 2 0 2 19 5 0 0 1 0 814
Spencer Strider, actual: 763 696 146 29 3 22 247 58 0 0 9 0 534
Spencer Strider, projected: 756 687 136 27 2 17 220 60 0 1 7 0 461
Michael Tonkin, actual: 325 295 64 7 1 13 112 23 2 3 2 0 593
Michael Tonkin, projected: 322 289 73 11 2 13 125 26 2 2 3 0 784
Darius Vines, actual: 84 74 15 3 2 3 31 7 0 2 1 0 713
Darius Vines, projected: 83 73 15 3 2 3 31 7 0 2 1 0 732
Allan Winans, actual: 141 129 37 8 1 5 62 8 0 2 2 0 864
Allan Winans, projected: 140 128 37 8 1 5 61 8 0 2 2 0 879
Kyle Wright, actual: 155 132 40 7 1 5 64 17 1 1 4 0 1250
Kyle Wright, projected: 153 135 34 5 0 5 54 15 0 1 2 0 753
Kirby Yates, actual: 254 210 35 4 0 9 66 37 1 1 5 0 590
Kirby Yates, projected: 252 222 46 8 0 9 80 23 1 2 4 0 626
Danny Young, actual: 35 30 7 1 0 0 8 2 0 0 3 0 470
Danny Young, projected: 35 31 9 2 0 1 12 2 0 0 2 0 898
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Braves, Actual: 6135 5480 1341 238 21 187 2182 534 19 29 70 3 701
Braves, Projected: 6076 5447 1304 252 22 177 2129 503 18 36 69 1 659
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.245 0.239
Slugging Average: 0.398 0.391
Walks (per PA): 0.087 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.247 0.246
On-Base Average: 0.318 0.310
Power Factor: 1.627 1.633
OPS: 0.716 0.701
TPP Runs (to date): 716 668

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 48 greater than Projected Runs.





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