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Orioles 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Orioles Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.993)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Anthony Bemboom, actual: 13 11 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 369
Anthony Bemboom, projected: 13 11 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 223
Colton Cowser, actual: 77 61 7 2 0 0 9 13 0 1 2 0 333
Colton Cowser, projected: 76 61 7 2 0 0 9 13 0 1 2 0 339
Adam Frazier, actual: 455 412 99 21 2 13 163 32 4 2 4 1 637
Adam Frazier, projected: 452 408 110 22 3 7 160 34 2 2 6 0 704
Austin Hays, actual: 566 520 143 36 2 16 231 38 0 5 3 0 768
Austin Hays, projected: 562 517 135 31 2 18 226 34 1 3 7 0 717
Gunnar Henderson, actual: 622 560 143 29 9 28 274 56 0 3 3 0 841
Gunnar Henderson, projected: 617 554 142 29 8 26 266 59 0 2 2 0 835
Aaron Hicks, actual: 236 200 55 7 1 7 85 35 0 1 0 0 990
Aaron Hicks, projected: 234 201 47 8 1 7 78 30 1 2 1 0 749
Heston Kjerstad, actual: 33 30 7 1 0 2 14 2 0 0 0 1 771
Heston Kjerstad, projected: 33 30 7 1 0 2 14 2 0 0 0 1 771
Josh Lester, actual: 23 22 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 199
Josh Lester, projected: 23 22 3 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 109
Jorge Mateo, actual: 350 318 69 14 2 7 108 22 5 3 1 1 500
Jorge Mateo, projected: 347 320 71 16 3 7 116 18 3 2 3 1 514
James McCann, actual: 226 207 46 14 0 6 78 9 3 2 5 0 503
James McCann, projected: 224 206 50 9 1 6 78 13 1 1 3 0 579
Ryan McKenna, actual: 139 122 31 7 0 2 44 9 3 2 3 0 633
Ryan McKenna, projected: 138 121 27 6 0 2 39 12 2 1 2 0 522
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Ryan Mountcastle, actual: 470 423 114 21 1 18 191 37 0 7 3 0 807
Ryan Mountcastle, projected: 467 423 111 20 1 20 193 34 0 6 3 0 787
Cedric Mullins, actual: 455 404 94 23 3 15 168 43 3 4 1 0 690
Cedric Mullins, projected: 452 404 104 21 3 14 174 36 3 3 5 1 779
Ryan O'Hearn, actual: 368 346 100 22 1 14 166 15 1 3 3 0 847
Ryan O'Hearn, projected: 365 332 79 16 2 13 137 29 0 3 2 0 661
Joey Ortiz, actual: 34 33 7 1 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 195
Joey Ortiz, projected: 34 33 7 1 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 195
Adley Rutschman, actual: 687 588 163 31 1 20 256 92 0 5 2 0 921
Adley Rutschman, projected: 682 581 156 39 1 19 255 93 0 5 4 0 921
Anthony Santander, actual: 656 591 152 41 1 28 279 55 0 4 6 0 805
Anthony Santander, projected: 651 594 147 35 1 29 273 45 1 5 7 0 734
Kyle Stowers, actual: 33 30 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 37
Kyle Stowers, projected: 33 30 6 1 0 1 10 2 0 0 1 0 454
Ramón Urías, actual: 396 360 95 22 3 4 135 27 0 1 8 0 647
Ramón Urías, projected: 393 355 94 19 1 9 143 29 1 2 6 0 720
Terrin Vavra, actual: 56 49 12 0 0 0 12 5 2 0 0 0 336
Terrin Vavra, projected: 56 48 12 1 0 0 15 6 1 1 0 0 475
Jordan Westburg, actual: 228 208 54 17 2 3 84 16 0 3 1 0 693
Jordan Westburg, projected: 226 206 54 17 2 3 83 16 0 3 1 0 708
Orioles, Actual: 6123 5495 1399 309 28 183 2313 512 21 47 45 3 738
Orioles, Projected: 6078 5457 1371 294 29 183 2283 507 16 43 55 3 718
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.255 0.251
Slugging Average: 0.421 0.418
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.224 0.223
On-Base Average: 0.321 0.319
Power Factor: 1.653 1.665
OPS: 0.742 0.737
TOP Runs (to date): 807 717

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 90 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.