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Red Sox 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Red Sox Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.998)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Wilyer Abreu, actual: 85 76 24 6 0 2 36 9 0 0 0 0 1096
Wilyer Abreu, projected: 85 76 24 6 0 2 36 9 0 0 0 0 1096
Jorge Alfaro, actual: 20 17 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 152
Jorge Alfaro, projected: 20 19 5 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 756
Christian Arroyo, actual: 206 195 47 16 0 3 72 7 1 2 1 0 416
Christian Arroyo, projected: 205 190 48 11 0 5 75 11 1 1 3 0 595
Triston Casas, actual: 502 429 113 21 2 24 210 70 0 2 1 0 994
Triston Casas, projected: 501 424 107 18 2 24 202 75 0 2 1 0 963
Yu Chang, actual: 112 105 17 2 0 6 37 3 2 0 2 0 417
Yu Chang, projected: 112 102 21 4 1 3 37 7 0 1 1 0 477
Bobby Dalbec, actual: 53 49 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 0 0 439
Bobby Dalbec, projected: 53 48 11 2 0 3 21 4 0 0 1 0 716
Rafael Devers, actual: 656 580 157 34 0 33 290 62 0 3 11 0 924
Rafael Devers, projected: 654 593 166 40 1 31 302 53 0 3 6 0 913
Jarren Duran, actual: 362 332 98 34 2 8 160 24 0 2 3 1 967
Jarren Duran, projected: 361 333 86 26 4 7 140 22 0 2 4 1 737
Adam Duvall, actual: 353 320 79 24 2 21 170 22 0 5 6 0 880
Adam Duvall, projected: 352 321 74 17 2 19 151 23 0 3 5 0 728
Caleb Hamilton, actual: 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 27
Caleb Hamilton, projected: 6 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 27
David Hamilton, actual: 39 33 4 2 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 227
David Hamilton, projected: 39 33 4 2 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 227
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Kiké Hernández, actual: 323 297 66 11 0 6 95 22 0 2 2 0 449
Kiké Hernández, projected: 322 287 69 16 1 10 117 29 1 3 2 0 685
Reese McGuire, actual: 206 187 50 12 1 1 67 11 2 1 1 4 624
Reese McGuire, projected: 205 188 49 12 0 3 71 11 3 1 1 1 578
Ceddanne Rafaela, actual: 89 83 20 6 0 2 32 4 0 1 1 0 548
Ceddanne Rafaela, projected: 89 83 20 6 0 2 32 4 0 1 1 0 548
Rob Refsnyder, actual: 243 202 50 9 1 1 64 33 1 1 5 1 721
Rob Refsnyder, projected: 242 209 51 11 0 3 72 27 0 2 3 1 658
Pablo Reyes, actual: 185 167 48 9 0 2 63 14 2 2 0 0 768
Pablo Reyes, projected: 185 167 43 8 1 3 61 15 1 1 0 0 663
Trevor Story, actual: 168 158 32 9 0 3 50 9 0 0 1 0 427
Trevor Story, projected: 168 151 40 10 1 8 76 14 0 1 2 0 912
Raimel Tapia, actual: 97 87 23 4 1 1 32 9 0 0 0 1 767
Raimel Tapia, projected: 97 90 25 5 1 1 35 6 0 0 0 0 666
Justin Turner, actual: 626 558 154 31 0 23 254 51 0 6 11 0 890
Justin Turner, projected: 624 550 158 35 1 20 256 56 1 6 13 0 959
Luis Urías, actual: 109 89 20 4 0 2 30 14 0 0 5 1 705
Luis Urías, projected: 109 94 22 4 0 3 36 11 0 1 3 0 721
Enmanuel Valdéz, actual: 149 139 37 8 0 6 63 8 0 0 1 1 743
Enmanuel Valdéz, projected: 149 139 37 8 0 6 63 8 0 0 1 1 743
Alex Verdugo, actual: 602 546 144 37 5 13 230 45 0 5 6 0 726
Alex Verdugo, projected: 601 546 153 36 2 13 234 45 0 5 4 0 775
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Connor Wong, actual: 403 371 87 25 2 9 143 22 3 1 6 0 570
Connor Wong, projected: 402 367 85 25 3 8 140 24 3 2 6 0 573
Masataka Yoshida, actual: 580 537 155 33 3 15 239 34 0 2 7 0 799
Masataka Yoshida, projected: 579 536 155 33 3 15 238 34 0 2 7 0 802
Red Sox, Actual: 6174 5562 1437 339 19 182 2360 486 11 35 71 9 753
Red Sox, Projected: 6160 5551 1453 336 23 190 2409 496 10 37 64 4 766
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.258 0.262
Slugging Average: 0.424 0.434
Walks (per PA): 0.079 0.081
SOs (per PA): 0.222 0.219
On-Base Average: 0.324 0.327
Power Factor: 1.642 1.658
OPS: 0.748 0.761
TOP Runs (to date): 772 767

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 5 greater than Projected Runs.





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