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Red Sox 2020 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Red Sox Projected Pitching

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.981)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Matt Barnes, actual: 102 84 18 1 0 4 31 14 1 1 2 0 808
Matt Barnes, projected: 100 87 21 4 0 3 33 11 0 1 1 0 759
Ryan Brasier, actual: 110 98 24 7 0 2 37 11 0 1 0 0 696
Ryan Brasier, projected: 108 96 21 4 0 3 35 9 0 2 1 0 584
Colten Brewer, actual: 122 107 31 7 0 6 56 14 0 0 1 0 1155
Colten Brewer, projected: 120 102 30 6 0 3 47 16 0 1 1 0 1072
Austin Brice, actual: 87 72 17 7 0 3 33 13 0 0 2 0 899
Austin Brice, projected: 85 75 18 4 0 4 32 7 0 0 2 0 775
Dylan Covey, actual: 60 58 18 3 0 2 27 2 0 0 0 0 786
Dylan Covey, projected: 59 52 15 2 0 2 25 6 0 0 0 0 898
Nathan Eovaldi, actual: 199 187 51 10 2 8 89 7 1 0 4 0 725
Nathan Eovaldi, projected: 195 178 48 9 1 5 74 14 1 1 1 0 705
Zack Godley, actual: 143 125 42 7 1 9 78 14 0 1 3 0 1491
Zack Godley, projected: 140 123 32 6 1 4 52 13 1 1 2 0 761
Matt Hall, actual: 54 43 17 4 0 2 27 10 0 0 1 0 2349
Matt Hall, projected: 53 45 16 3 0 2 25 7 0 0 1 0 1573
Kyle Hart, actual: 67 56 24 4 0 4 40 10 0 1 0 0 2605
Kyle Hart, projected: 66 55 24 4 0 4 39 10 0 1 0 0 2725
Heath Hembree, actual: 40 37 9 3 0 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 785
Heath Hembree, projected: 39 35 9 2 0 2 16 3 0 0 0 0 828
Darwinzon Hernandez, actual: 40 31 5 0 0 0 5 8 0 0 1 0 555
Darwinzon Hernandez, projected: 39 31 7 2 0 0 9 7 0 0 1 0 727
Tanner Houck, actual: 63 53 6 1 0 1 10 9 0 0 1 0 254
Tanner Houck, projected: 62 52 6 1 0 1 10 9 0 0 1 0 263
Mike Kickham, actual: 70 63 21 4 0 6 43 5 0 0 2 0 1508
Mike Kickham, projected: 69 62 22 5 0 4 41 5 1 0 1 0 1571
Robinson Leyer, actual: 34 26 12 2 0 3 23 8 0 0 0 0 3660
Robinson Leyer, projected: 33 26 12 2 0 3 23 8 0 0 0 0 3752
Tzu-Wei Lin, actual: 7 7 4 2 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 4794
Tzu-Wei Lin, projected: 7 7 4 2 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 4794
Chris Mazza, actual: 136 118 34 6 0 3 49 15 0 1 2 0 911
Chris Mazza, projected: 133 116 35 10 1 2 51 13 0 1 4 0 973
Josh Osich, actual: 70 64 16 0 0 6 34 5 0 0 1 0 1067
Josh Osich, projected: 69 61 16 3 0 3 28 6 0 0 1 0 862
Jose Peraza, actual: 3 3 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 7190
Jose Peraza, projected: 3 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Martin Perez, actual: 262 229 55 16 0 8 95 28 1 1 3 0 720
Martin Perez, projected: 257 231 65 13 1 7 100 22 1 2 2 0 828
Nick Pivetta, actual: 42 37 8 0 0 1 11 5 0 0 0 0 540
Nick Pivetta, projected: 41 37 10 2 0 2 17 4 0 0 0 0 859
Kevin Plawecki, actual: 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 244
Kevin Plawecki, projected: 3 3 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 674
Jeffrey Springs, actual: 99 90 30 8 0 5 53 7 0 1 1 0 1321
Jeffrey Springs, projected: 97 85 25 6 0 3 41 11 0 1 0 0 1025
Robert Stock, actual: 62 50 16 4 0 0 20 10 1 1 0 0 1001
Robert Stock, projected: 61 53 14 3 0 1 19 7 0 0 1 0 767
Domingo Tapia, actual: 19 17 4 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 792
Domingo Tapia, projected: 19 17 4 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 792
Josh Taylor, actual: 36 30 7 2 0 2 15 5 0 0 1 0 1107
Josh Taylor, projected: 35 31 7 1 0 1 12 3 0 0 0 0 559
Andrew Triggs, actual: 35 32 8 0 0 3 17 3 0 0 0 0 957
Andrew Triggs, projected: 34 31 8 1 0 1 13 3 0 0 0 0 737
Phillips Valdez, actual: 137 117 33 4 1 3 48 16 0 1 3 0 894
Phillips Valdez, projected: 134 114 32 4 1 4 48 16 0 1 3 0 1006
Marcus Walden, actual: 71 62 23 3 3 5 47 9 0 0 0 0 2060
Marcus Walden, projected: 70 62 15 4 1 2 25 7 0 0 1 0 780
Ryan Weber, actual: 185 166 44 11 0 8 79 14 1 1 3 0 837
Ryan Weber, projected: 182 168 46 10 2 6 78 9 1 1 3 0 780
Brandon Workman, actual: 31 27 8 0 0 0 8 4 0 0 0 0 734
Brandon Workman, projected: 30 27 6 1 0 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 586
Red Sox, Actual: 2389 2091 587 118 7 98 1013 252 5 10 31 0 998
Red Sox, Projected: 2343 2065 570 115 8 75 924 231 5 13 27 0 888
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.281 0.276
Slugging Average: 0.484 0.447
Walks (per PA): 0.105 0.099
SOs (per PA): 0.225 0.211
On-Base Average: 0.365 0.354
Power Factor: 1.726 1.621
OPS: 0.849 0.802
TPP Runs (to date): 351 324

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 27 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.