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White Sox 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 White Sox Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.993)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
José Abreu, actual: 262 240 76 15 0 19 148 18 0 1 3 0 1175
José Abreu, projected: 260 236 70 15 1 12 123 16 0 2 5 0 963
Tim Anderson, actual: 221 208 67 11 1 10 110 10 0 1 2 0 1052
Tim Anderson, projected: 219 209 59 11 1 7 93 7 1 1 1 0 727
Zack Collins, actual: 18 16 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 78
Zack Collins, projected: 18 15 3 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 381
Cheslor Cuthbert, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cheslor Cuthbert, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nicky Delmonico, actual: 22 20 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 109
Nicky Delmonico, projected: 22 19 4 1 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 0 620
Jarrod Dyson, actual: 11 10 3 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 576
Jarrod Dyson, projected: 11 10 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 528
Edwin Encarnacion, actual: 181 159 25 5 0 10 60 16 0 1 4 1 557
Edwin Encarnacion, projected: 180 156 41 8 0 9 77 20 0 1 2 0 925
Adam Engel, actual: 93 88 26 5 1 3 42 3 0 0 2 0 898
Adam Engel, projected: 92 85 19 3 1 2 29 4 1 0 2 0 515
Leury Garcia, actual: 63 59 16 1 0 3 26 4 0 0 0 0 816
Leury Garcia, projected: 63 58 15 2 0 1 21 2 1 0 1 0 525
Ryan Goins, actual: 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Goins, projected: 10 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 400
Luis Gonzalez, actual: 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 839
Luis Gonzalez, projected: 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 839
Yasmani Grandal, actual: 194 161 37 7 0 8 68 30 0 2 1 0 837
Yasmani Grandal, projected: 193 163 39 8 0 8 73 27 0 1 1 0 833
Eloy Jimenez, actual: 226 213 63 14 0 14 119 12 0 1 0 0 985
Eloy Jimenez, projected: 224 209 58 10 1 14 110 13 0 1 1 0 903
Nick Madrigal, actual: 109 103 35 3 0 0 38 4 0 0 2 0 821
Nick Madrigal, projected: 108 102 35 3 0 0 38 4 0 0 2 0 842
Nomar Mazara, actual: 149 136 31 6 0 1 40 10 0 0 3 0 457
Nomar Mazara, projected: 148 134 35 6 0 5 57 11 0 1 1 0 715
James McCann, actual: 111 97 28 3 0 7 52 8 0 2 4 0 1114
James McCann, projected: 110 102 25 4 0 3 40 6 0 1 1 0 593
Danny Mendick, actual: 114 107 26 4 1 3 41 6 0 1 0 0 556
Danny Mendick, projected: 113 107 28 3 1 4 43 5 0 1 0 0 648
Yermin Mercedes, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yermin Mercedes, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yoan Moncada, actual: 231 200 45 8 3 6 77 28 0 2 1 0 708
Yoan Moncada, projected: 229 204 53 11 2 8 92 22 0 1 1 0 845
Luis Robert, actual: 227 202 47 8 0 11 88 20 0 2 1 2 752
Luis Robert, projected: 225 201 47 8 0 11 87 20 0 2 1 2 762
Yolmer Sanchez, actual: 21 16 5 3 0 1 11 5 0 0 0 0 1697
Yolmer Sanchez, projected: 21 19 5 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 471
White Sox, Actual: 2267 2047 534 94 6 96 928 179 1 13 24 3 822
White Sox, Projected: 2250 2041 540 95 7 85 908 164 3 12 20 2 777
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.261 0.265
Slugging Average: 0.453 0.445
Walks (per PA): 0.079 0.073
SOs (per PA): 0.252 0.241
On-Base Average: 0.326 0.324
Power Factor: 1.738 1.681
OPS: 0.779 0.769
TOP Runs (to date): 306 285

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 21 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.