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Rockies 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Rockies Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.021)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nolan Arenado, actual: 201 182 46 9 0 8 79 15 0 4 0 0 687
Nolan Arenado, projected: 205 185 54 12 1 11 100 16 0 2 1 0 988
Charlie Blackmon, actual: 247 221 67 12 1 6 99 19 0 5 2 0 953
Charlie Blackmon, projected: 252 229 70 13 3 9 116 17 1 1 4 0 1024
Drew Butera, actual: 43 39 6 2 0 0 8 2 1 1 0 0 130
Drew Butera, projected: 44 40 8 2 0 1 12 3 1 0 0 0 378
David Dahl, actual: 99 93 17 2 2 0 23 4 0 1 1 0 295
David Dahl, projected: 101 93 27 5 1 4 46 7 0 1 1 0 915
Elias Diaz, actual: 73 68 16 2 0 2 24 5 0 0 0 0 489
Elias Diaz, projected: 75 69 17 4 0 1 24 5 0 1 0 0 549
Josh Fuentes, actual: 103 98 30 7 0 2 43 2 0 2 1 0 829
Josh Fuentes, projected: 105 101 28 5 0 3 43 2 0 1 1 0 687
Garrett Hampson, actual: 184 167 39 4 3 5 64 13 3 1 0 0 597
Garrett Hampson, projected: 188 170 42 5 3 4 66 15 2 1 0 0 683
Sam Hilliard, actual: 114 105 22 2 2 6 46 9 0 0 0 0 663
Sam Hilliard, projected: 116 105 25 3 2 8 56 10 0 0 1 0 886
Matt Kemp, actual: 132 117 28 3 0 6 49 15 0 0 0 0 699
Matt Kemp, projected: 135 123 35 7 1 6 59 10 0 1 1 0 890
Ryan McMahon, actual: 193 172 37 6 1 9 72 18 0 1 2 0 666
Ryan McMahon, projected: 197 175 42 8 1 8 74 20 0 1 1 0 730
Daniel Murphy, actual: 132 123 29 3 0 3 41 7 0 1 0 1 476
Daniel Murphy, projected: 135 124 37 9 1 3 57 9 0 1 1 0 862
Chris Owings, actual: 44 41 11 1 0 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 803
Chris Owings, projected: 45 42 10 2 0 1 15 2 0 0 0 0 515
Kevin Pillar, actual: 97 91 28 5 1 2 41 5 0 0 1 0 900
Kevin Pillar, projected: 99 93 24 6 0 2 38 4 0 1 1 0 616
Brendan Rodgers, actual: 21 21 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 34
Brendan Rodgers, projected: 21 20 4 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 273
Trevor Story, actual: 259 235 68 13 4 11 122 24 0 0 0 0 1013
Trevor Story, projected: 264 239 66 15 2 14 128 22 0 1 2 0 971
Raimel Tapia, actual: 206 184 59 8 2 1 74 14 1 3 2 2 1001
Raimel Tapia, projected: 210 196 56 11 2 3 80 11 0 1 1 0 759
Tony Wolters, actual: 109 100 23 4 0 0 27 6 2 0 1 0 390
Tony Wolters, projected: 111 97 23 4 1 1 31 11 1 1 2 0 596
Rockies, Actual: 2257 2057 528 84 16 63 833 161 7 19 10 3 702
Rockies, Projected: 2303 2101 568 112 18 79 950 165 5 14 17 0 802
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.257 0.270
Slugging Average: 0.405 0.452
Walks (per PA): 0.071 0.072
SOs (per PA): 0.241 0.231
On-Base Average: 0.311 0.327
Power Factor: 1.578 1.673
OPS: 0.716 0.779
TOP Runs (to date): 275 300

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -25 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.