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Rockies 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Rockies Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.993)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jorge Alfaro, actual: 32 31 5 4 0 1 12 0 0 0 1 0 264
Jorge Alfaro, projected: 32 30 7 1 0 1 12 1 0 0 1 0 557
Charlie Blackmon, actual: 413 359 100 24 5 8 158 39 0 4 11 0 930
Charlie Blackmon, projected: 410 371 110 20 4 14 180 29 2 2 7 0 965
Sean Bouchard, actual: 43 38 12 2 0 4 26 4 0 1 0 0 1480
Sean Bouchard, projected: 43 34 10 2 0 2 19 8 0 1 0 0 1511
Kris Bryant, actual: 335 300 70 10 0 10 110 29 0 0 6 0 646
Kris Bryant, projected: 333 286 79 17 1 14 141 37 0 2 7 0 1029
Harold Castro, actual: 270 258 65 13 0 1 81 9 1 2 0 0 437
Harold Castro, projected: 268 254 71 11 1 3 93 10 2 2 0 0 596
C.J. Cron, actual: 224 208 54 12 0 11 99 13 0 2 1 0 710
C.J. Cron, projected: 222 202 52 11 1 10 95 15 0 2 4 0 793
Yonathan Daza, actual: 80 74 20 6 0 0 26 3 1 1 1 0 461
Yonathan Daza, projected: 79 73 20 3 0 0 26 5 1 1 1 0 578
Elias Díaz, actual: 526 486 130 25 1 14 199 34 0 4 2 0 700
Elias Díaz, projected: 522 480 120 25 1 14 187 36 0 4 2 0 620
Brenton Doyle, actual: 431 399 81 16 5 10 137 22 3 3 4 0 446
Brenton Doyle, projected: 428 396 80 16 5 10 136 22 3 3 4 0 449
Hunter Goodman, actual: 77 70 14 4 3 1 27 5 0 2 0 0 471
Hunter Goodman, projected: 76 70 14 4 3 1 27 5 0 2 0 0 477
Randal Grichuk, actual: 263 240 74 19 1 8 119 18 0 1 4 0 972
Randal Grichuk, projected: 261 243 61 14 2 12 113 14 0 1 2 0 708
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nolan Jones, actual: 424 367 109 22 4 20 199 53 0 1 3 0 1237
Nolan Jones, projected: 421 368 106 22 3 18 188 50 0 1 2 0 1101
Connor Kaiser, actual: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Connor Kaiser, projected: 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan McMahon, actual: 627 555 133 31 3 23 239 68 0 3 1 0 703
Ryan McMahon, projected: 623 552 134 28 2 23 236 64 0 3 3 0 727
Elehuris Montero, actual: 307 284 69 15 2 11 121 15 0 3 5 0 671
Elehuris Montero, projected: 305 285 68 19 2 11 122 14 0 2 4 0 636
Coco Montes, actual: 41 38 7 2 0 1 12 2 0 0 1 0 394
Coco Montes, projected: 41 38 7 2 0 1 12 2 0 0 1 0 394
Mike Moustakas, actual: 136 115 31 7 0 4 50 17 0 3 1 0 950
Mike Moustakas, projected: 135 123 30 7 0 5 53 10 0 1 1 0 674
Jurickson Profar, actual: 472 415 98 25 2 8 151 45 0 5 6 1 632
Jurickson Profar, projected: 469 412 98 21 2 11 158 46 2 3 6 0 666
Brendan Rodgers, actual: 192 178 46 9 1 4 69 11 0 0 3 0 606
Brendan Rodgers, projected: 191 176 47 9 1 5 72 12 0 1 2 0 673
Brian Serven, actual: 23 23 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 73
Brian Serven, projected: 23 21 4 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 451
Michael Toglia, actual: 152 141 23 5 0 4 40 10 0 0 1 0 322
Michael Toglia, projected: 151 140 26 7 1 3 46 11 0 0 1 0 388
Ezequiel Tovar, actual: 615 581 147 37 4 15 237 25 2 3 4 0 595
Ezequiel Tovar, projected: 611 577 145 36 4 15 233 25 2 3 4 0 590
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Alan Trejo, actual: 227 207 48 11 0 4 71 16 1 2 1 0 528
Alan Trejo, projected: 225 208 50 11 0 5 76 13 1 2 2 0 553
Cole Tucker, actual: 10 8 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 3125
Cole Tucker, projected: 10 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 267
Austin Wynns, actual: 131 117 25 5 0 1 33 8 3 1 2 0 371
Austin Wynns, projected: 130 120 27 4 0 3 39 7 2 0 1 0 438
Rockies, Actual: 6055 5496 1368 305 31 163 2224 447 11 41 59 1 677
Rockies, Projected: 6013 5472 1368 291 33 182 2274 438 15 36 55 0 683
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.249 0.250
Slugging Average: 0.405 0.416
Walks (per PA): 0.074 0.073
SOs (per PA): 0.255 0.249
On-Base Average: 0.310 0.310
Power Factor: 1.626 1.662
OPS: 0.715 0.726
TOP Runs (to date): 721 685

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 36 greater than Projected Runs.





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