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Tigers 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Tigers Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.004)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Sergio Alcantara, actual: 23 21 3 0 1 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 448
Sergio Alcantara, projected: 23 21 3 0 1 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 448
Jorge Bonifacio, actual: 94 86 19 3 0 2 28 5 0 1 2 0 494
Jorge Bonifacio, projected: 94 85 21 4 0 3 34 8 0 0 1 0 663
Miguel Cabrera, actual: 231 204 51 4 0 10 85 24 0 2 1 0 784
Miguel Cabrera, projected: 232 203 64 13 0 11 110 26 0 2 1 0 1151
Daz Cameron, actual: 59 57 11 2 1 0 15 2 0 0 0 0 271
Daz Cameron, projected: 59 57 11 2 1 0 15 2 0 0 0 0 271
Jeimer Candelario, actual: 206 185 55 11 3 7 93 20 0 0 1 0 1013
Jeimer Candelario, projected: 207 181 43 10 1 6 72 22 0 1 3 0 739
Harold Castro, actual: 54 49 17 4 0 0 21 5 0 0 0 0 1055
Harold Castro, projected: 54 52 15 2 1 1 20 2 0 1 0 0 756
Willi Castro, actual: 140 129 45 4 2 6 71 7 1 2 1 0 1260
Willi Castro, projected: 141 129 38 6 2 4 59 7 1 2 2 0 834
C.J. Cron, actual: 52 42 8 3 0 4 23 9 0 0 1 0 917
C.J. Cron, projected: 52 48 12 2 0 2 22 3 0 0 1 0 664
Travis Demeritte, actual: 33 29 5 1 0 0 6 3 0 0 1 0 305
Travis Demeritte, projected: 33 30 7 1 0 0 10 3 0 0 0 0 404
Brandon Dixon, actual: 14 13 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 35
Brandon Dixon, projected: 14 13 3 1 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 664
Niko Goodrum, actual: 179 158 29 7 1 5 53 18 0 3 0 0 492
Niko Goodrum, projected: 180 161 38 10 1 5 66 17 0 1 1 0 658
Grayson Greiner, actual: 55 51 6 2 0 3 17 3 0 0 1 0 347
Grayson Greiner, projected: 55 50 10 2 0 1 15 5 0 1 0 0 452
Eric Haase, actual: 19 17 3 0 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 355
Eric Haase, projected: 19 18 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 73
Derek Hill, actual: 12 11 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 70
Derek Hill, projected: 12 11 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 70
JaCoby Jones, actual: 108 97 26 9 0 5 50 7 0 1 3 0 914
JaCoby Jones, projected: 108 99 21 6 1 3 38 7 0 0 2 0 538
Dawel Lugo, actual: 11 10 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 207
Dawel Lugo, projected: 11 10 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 239
Cameron Maybin, actual: 45 41 10 4 0 1 17 4 0 0 0 0 537
Cameron Maybin, projected: 45 41 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 0 0 666
Jordy Mercer, actual: 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 118
Jordy Mercer, projected: 9 8 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 530
Isaac Paredes, actual: 108 100 22 4 0 1 29 8 0 0 0 0 410
Isaac Paredes, projected: 108 100 22 4 0 1 29 8 0 0 0 0 410
Victor Reyes, actual: 213 202 56 7 2 4 79 9 0 0 2 0 685
Victor Reyes, projected: 214 204 55 8 3 2 77 8 0 1 1 0 616
Austin Romine, actual: 135 130 31 5 0 2 42 4 0 1 0 0 434
Austin Romine, projected: 136 126 30 6 0 3 46 7 1 1 1 0 491
Jonathan Schoop, actual: 177 162 45 4 2 8 77 8 0 2 4 1 839
Jonathan Schoop, projected: 178 167 43 9 0 8 75 7 0 1 3 0 680
Christin Stewart, actual: 99 90 15 3 0 3 27 5 0 1 2 1 374
Christin Stewart, projected: 99 88 20 5 0 3 33 8 0 1 2 0 643
Tigers, Actual: 2076 1893 463 78 12 62 751 147 1 14 19 2 647
Tigers, Projected: 2083 1902 473 93 11 56 760 150 2 12 18 0 648
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.245 0.249
Slugging Average: 0.397 0.400
Walks (per PA): 0.071 0.072
SOs (per PA): 0.273 0.251
On-Base Average: 0.303 0.308
Power Factor: 1.622 1.607
OPS: 0.700 0.707
TOP Runs (to date): 249 226

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 23 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.