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Tigers 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Tigers Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.996)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Akil Baddoo, actual: 357 312 68 13 1 11 116 42 2 1 0 0 632
Akil Baddoo, projected: 356 316 74 12 3 9 119 38 1 1 0 0 655
Javier Báez, actual: 547 510 113 18 4 9 166 24 0 3 9 1 473
Javier Báez, projected: 545 509 130 25 3 22 227 26 1 3 6 0 693
Miguel Cabrera, actual: 370 334 86 20 0 4 118 31 0 3 2 0 615
Miguel Cabrera, projected: 368 323 99 20 1 16 168 39 0 3 2 0 1072
Kerry Carpenter, actual: 459 418 116 17 2 20 197 32 0 1 8 0 882
Kerry Carpenter, projected: 457 416 113 17 2 21 197 30 0 2 9 0 872
Isan Díaz, actual: 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Isan Díaz, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 381
Riley Greene, actual: 416 378 109 19 4 11 169 35 0 2 1 0 886
Riley Greene, projected: 414 375 101 18 4 8 152 35 0 2 2 0 734
Eric Haase, actual: 282 264 53 8 1 4 75 16 1 1 0 0 330
Eric Haase, projected: 281 260 58 10 1 11 102 18 0 2 1 0 561
Andy Ibañez, actual: 383 356 94 23 2 11 154 24 1 1 1 0 688
Andy Ibañez, projected: 381 355 93 20 2 9 145 23 1 1 1 0 649
Carson Kelly, actual: 59 52 9 2 0 1 14 7 0 0 0 0 397
Carson Kelly, projected: 59 52 11 2 0 2 19 6 0 0 1 0 564
Ryan Kreidler, actual: 18 18 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 38
Ryan Kreidler, projected: 18 16 3 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 210
Andre Lipcius, actual: 38 35 10 1 0 1 14 3 0 0 0 0 740
Andre Lipcius, projected: 38 35 10 1 0 1 14 3 0 0 0 0 740
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jake Marisnick, actual: 75 69 16 3 2 2 29 3 1 1 1 0 464
Jake Marisnick, projected: 75 68 16 3 0 2 26 4 1 0 1 0 555
Nick Maton, actual: 293 249 43 9 0 8 76 38 1 2 3 0 484
Nick Maton, projected: 292 251 52 10 1 9 91 33 1 3 3 0 620
Zach McKinstry, actual: 518 464 107 21 4 9 163 44 2 3 5 0 598
Zach McKinstry, projected: 516 465 103 22 4 12 170 41 3 3 4 0 565
Austin Meadows, actual: 21 21 5 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 312
Austin Meadows, projected: 21 19 5 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 861
Parker Meadows, actual: 145 125 30 4 2 3 47 17 0 1 2 0 807
Parker Meadows, projected: 144 124 30 4 2 3 47 17 0 1 2 0 821
Tyler Nevin, actual: 111 95 19 3 1 2 30 12 0 1 3 0 558
Tyler Nevin, projected: 111 94 19 3 0 2 28 13 0 1 2 0 541
Jake Rogers, actual: 365 331 73 11 0 21 147 28 1 2 3 0 673
Jake Rogers, projected: 363 326 67 11 2 18 136 30 4 1 2 0 599
Jonathan Schoop, actual: 151 136 29 8 0 0 37 13 0 2 0 0 359
Jonathan Schoop, projected: 150 141 36 7 0 6 60 6 0 1 2 0 655
Zack Short, actual: 253 221 45 9 0 7 75 28 3 1 0 0 539
Zack Short, projected: 252 216 38 7 0 7 67 29 2 5 0 0 473
Spencer Torkelson, actual: 684 606 141 34 1 31 270 67 0 5 6 0 742
Spencer Torkelson, projected: 681 605 134 31 1 24 241 65 0 4 7 0 628
Matt Vierling, actual: 530 479 125 21 5 10 186 44 1 1 5 0 687
Matt Vierling, projected: 528 479 125 20 4 10 183 39 1 4 5 0 667
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Tigers, Actual: 6080 5478 1293 245 29 165 2091 508 13 31 49 1 638
Tigers, Projected: 6055 5449 1318 244 30 193 2205 499 15 37 50 0 669
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.236 0.242
Slugging Average: 0.382 0.405
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.082
SOs (per PA): 0.242 0.252
On-Base Average: 0.305 0.309
Power Factor: 1.617 1.673
OPS: 0.687 0.714
TOP Runs (to date): 661 676

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -15 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.