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Astros 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Astros Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.02)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jose Altuve, actual: 210 192 42 9 0 5 66 17 0 0 1 0 495
Jose Altuve, projected: 214 196 61 12 1 5 90 14 1 1 2 0 936
Yordan Álvarez, actual: 9 8 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 908
Yordan Álvarez, projected: 9 8 2 1 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 1210
Michael Brantley, actual: 187 170 51 15 0 5 81 17 0 0 0 0 962
Michael Brantley, projected: 191 173 51 11 1 4 76 15 0 2 1 0 885
Alex Bregman, actual: 180 153 37 12 1 6 69 24 0 1 2 0 844
Alex Bregman, projected: 184 156 44 12 1 8 82 23 0 2 2 0 1121
Carlos Correa, actual: 221 201 53 9 0 5 77 16 0 1 3 0 699
Carlos Correa, projected: 225 198 55 11 1 9 95 24 0 2 1 0 948
Aledmys Díaz, actual: 59 58 14 5 0 3 28 1 0 0 0 0 589
Aledmys Díaz, projected: 60 55 15 3 0 2 25 4 0 1 1 0 828
Dustin Garneau, actual: 46 38 6 0 1 1 11 6 2 0 0 0 376
Dustin Garneau, projected: 47 41 8 2 0 1 14 5 0 0 1 0 522
Yuli Gurriel, actual: 230 211 49 12 1 6 81 12 0 5 2 0 555
Yuli Gurriel, projected: 235 219 63 15 1 8 102 11 0 3 2 0 817
Taylor Jones, actual: 22 21 4 1 0 1 8 1 0 0 0 0 352
Taylor Jones, projected: 22 21 4 1 0 1 8 1 0 0 0 0 352
Martin Maldonado, actual: 165 135 29 4 0 6 51 27 2 0 1 0 755
Martin Maldonado, projected: 168 150 33 6 0 5 53 13 2 0 3 0 531
Jack Mayfield, actual: 47 42 8 1 0 0 9 2 1 1 1 0 255
Jack Mayfield, projected: 48 45 8 3 0 1 13 1 0 0 0 0 282
Josh Reddick, actual: 210 188 46 11 1 4 71 20 0 1 0 1 629
Josh Reddick, projected: 214 193 51 9 1 7 83 18 0 2 0 1 782
George Springer, actual: 222 189 50 6 2 14 102 24 0 2 5 2 1106
George Springer, projected: 227 196 53 9 1 11 96 25 0 1 3 1 986
Myles Straw, actual: 86 82 17 4 0 0 21 4 0 0 0 0 331
Myles Straw, projected: 88 78 19 3 1 0 25 9 0 0 0 0 587
Garrett Stubbs, actual: 10 8 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
Garrett Stubbs, projected: 10 9 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 325
Abraham Toro, actual: 97 87 13 2 0 3 24 3 0 0 7 0 379
Abraham Toro, projected: 99 88 16 3 1 3 29 6 0 1 4 0 508
Kyle Tucker, actual: 228 209 56 12 6 9 107 18 0 1 0 0 907
Kyle Tucker, projected: 233 213 52 13 4 8 98 18 0 1 2 0 742
Astros, Actual: 2229 1992 478 103 12 69 812 192 6 13 23 3 697
Astros, Projected: 2274 2039 537 115 13 74 896 189 3 16 22 2 793
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.240 0.263
Slugging Average: 0.408 0.439
Walks (per PA): 0.086 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.197 0.176
On-Base Average: 0.312 0.330
Power Factor: 1.699 1.669
OPS: 0.720 0.770
TOP Runs (to date): 279 291

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -12 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.