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Astros 2020 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Astros Projected Pitching

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.997)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Bryan Abreu, actual: 20 11 1 1 0 0 2 7 0 0 2 0 1071
Bryan Abreu, projected: 20 15 2 1 0 0 3 4 0 0 1 0 408
Brandon Bailey, actual: 30 26 6 2 0 1 11 3 0 0 1 0 635
Brandon Bailey, projected: 30 26 6 2 0 1 11 3 0 0 1 0 635
Joe Biagini, actual: 27 23 10 4 0 1 17 4 0 0 0 0 2551
Joe Biagini, projected: 27 24 7 1 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 911
Brandon Bielak, actual: 148 128 39 8 0 9 74 17 1 0 2 0 1212
Brandon Bielak, projected: 148 128 39 8 0 9 74 17 1 0 2 0 1212
Humberto Castellanos, actual: 51 44 12 3 0 2 21 5 0 0 2 0 1001
Humberto Castellanos, projected: 51 44 12 3 0 2 21 5 0 0 2 0 1001
Chase De Jong, actual: 38 32 12 0 0 2 18 4 0 1 1 0 1760
Chase De Jong, projected: 38 33 10 1 0 2 17 4 0 0 0 0 1073
Chris Devenski, actual: 21 18 7 2 0 1 12 3 0 0 0 0 2179
Chris Devenski, projected: 21 19 4 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 572
Luis Garcia, actual: 49 42 7 3 1 1 15 5 0 1 1 0 485
Luis Garcia, projected: 49 42 7 3 1 1 15 5 0 1 1 0 485
Zack Greinke, actual: 273 262 67 17 2 6 106 9 0 1 1 0 560
Zack Greinke, projected: 272 252 62 13 1 7 98 15 2 1 2 0 571
Josh James, actual: 83 64 15 4 0 4 31 17 0 0 2 0 1107
Josh James, projected: 83 70 14 3 0 3 27 11 0 0 2 0 665
Cristian Javier, actual: 214 192 36 6 0 11 75 18 0 2 2 0 555
Cristian Javier, projected: 213 191 36 6 0 11 75 18 0 2 2 0 560
Lance McCullers Jr., actual: 227 200 44 18 2 5 81 20 1 1 5 0 596
Lance McCullers Jr., projected: 226 201 47 12 1 4 74 21 0 1 3 0 602
Roberto Osuna, actual: 16 16 3 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 252
Roberto Osuna, projected: 16 15 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 231
Enoli Paredes, actual: 90 76 18 2 1 1 25 11 1 1 1 0 634
Enoli Paredes, projected: 90 76 18 2 1 1 25 11 1 1 1 0 634
Brad Peacock, actual: 12 10 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 1057
Brad Peacock, projected: 12 11 2 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 304
Cionel Pérez, actual: 32 26 7 0 0 0 7 6 0 0 0 0 749
Cionel Pérez, projected: 32 28 7 1 0 2 12 4 0 0 0 0 886
Ryan Pressly, actual: 91 83 21 3 2 2 34 7 0 0 1 0 694
Ryan Pressly, projected: 91 82 20 3 0 2 30 7 1 1 1 0 585
Brooks Raley, actual: 62 56 8 2 0 3 19 4 1 0 1 0 431
Brooks Raley, projected: 62 54 13 2 0 3 24 6 1 0 1 0 801
Nivaldo Rodriguez, actual: 46 39 15 2 0 3 26 6 0 1 0 0 1951
Nivaldo Rodriguez, projected: 46 39 15 2 0 3 26 6 0 1 0 0 1951
Carlos Sanabria, actual: 12 9 3 1 0 1 7 3 0 0 0 0 2246
Carlos Sanabria, projected: 12 9 3 1 0 1 7 3 0 0 0 0 2246
Andre Scrubb, actual: 102 79 15 1 0 1 19 20 1 2 0 0 551
Andre Scrubb, projected: 102 79 15 1 0 1 19 20 1 2 0 0 551
Cy Sneed, actual: 83 71 22 7 0 3 38 10 2 0 0 0 1061
Cy Sneed, projected: 83 74 23 6 0 4 39 7 1 0 0 0 1013
Blake Taylor, actual: 87 75 13 2 0 2 21 12 0 0 0 0 495
Blake Taylor, projected: 87 75 13 2 0 2 21 12 0 0 0 0 495
Jose Urquidy, actual: 116 107 22 1 0 4 35 8 0 0 1 0 460
Jose Urquidy, projected: 116 108 25 4 0 4 40 6 1 0 0 0 520
Framber Valdez, actual: 288 263 63 6 3 5 90 16 1 3 5 0 549
Framber Valdez, projected: 287 248 59 8 1 6 89 31 0 3 5 0 686
Justin Verlander, actual: 21 20 3 0 0 2 9 1 0 0 0 0 529
Justin Verlander, projected: 21 19 4 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 607
Astros, Actual: 2239 1972 472 96 12 70 802 217 8 13 29 0 699
Astros, Projected: 2235 1962 466 89 5 72 781 222 9 13 24 0 686
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.239 0.238
Slugging Average: 0.407 0.398
Walks (per PA): 0.097 0.099
SOs (per PA): 0.235 0.229
On-Base Average: 0.322 0.321
Power Factor: 1.699 1.676
OPS: 0.729 0.719
TPP Runs (to date): 275 251

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 24 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.