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Angels 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Angels Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.976)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Tyler Anderson, actual: 629 549 146 40 2 20 250 64 2 7 7 0 875
Tyler Anderson, projected: 614 555 142 31 4 20 243 44 5 5 4 0 719
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Sam Bachman, actual: 77 65 17 0 1 0 19 11 0 0 1 0 678
Sam Bachman, projected: 75 63 17 0 1 0 19 11 0 0 1 0 730
Jaime Barria, actual: 362 328 91 17 0 20 168 30 0 2 2 0 905
Jaime Barria, projected: 353 321 83 18 1 15 148 27 1 1 3 0 754
Kelvin Cáceres, actual: 8 5 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 1659
Kelvin Cáceres, projected: 8 5 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 1659
Griffin Canning, actual: 536 493 121 19 3 22 212 36 1 1 5 0 684
Griffin Canning, projected: 523 470 117 22 4 21 210 43 1 4 5 0 763
Davis Daniel, actual: 52 42 7 2 1 1 14 9 0 1 0 0 606
Davis Daniel, projected: 51 41 7 2 1 1 14 9 0 1 0 0 635
Tucker Davidson, actual: 148 133 44 14 0 2 64 11 1 1 2 0 1101
Tucker Davidson, projected: 144 124 34 9 1 4 57 17 1 1 2 1 972
Reid Detmers, actual: 644 569 141 28 1 19 228 60 0 2 13 0 736
Reid Detmers, projected: 628 555 136 30 1 18 223 57 0 4 11 0 726
Chris Devenski, actual: 140 127 31 2 1 5 50 9 1 2 1 0 691
Chris Devenski, projected: 137 125 28 6 1 4 49 9 0 1 1 0 600
Jhonathan Diaz, actual: 42 31 13 5 0 0 18 7 0 2 2 0 2836
Jhonathan Diaz, projected: 41 33 9 3 0 0 14 6 0 1 1 0 1004
Eduardo Escobar, actual: 16 13 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 675
Eduardo Escobar, projected: 16 13 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 675
Carlos Estévez, actual: 281 244 62 10 0 7 93 31 1 0 5 0 727
Carlos Estévez, projected: 274 243 63 12 2 8 104 25 1 2 3 0 781
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Carson Fulmer, actual: 39 34 6 1 1 1 12 4 0 0 1 0 471
Carson Fulmer, projected: 38 31 8 1 0 1 13 5 0 0 1 0 819
Lucas Giolito, actual: 149 128 33 5 2 10 72 15 0 2 3 1 1117
Lucas Giolito, projected: 145 130 30 6 1 6 55 13 0 1 1 0 706
Jimmy Herget, actual: 127 117 33 10 0 7 64 8 0 0 2 0 888
Jimmy Herget, projected: 124 111 26 8 0 3 45 9 1 1 2 0 572
Kolton Ingram, actual: 30 24 8 2 0 2 16 5 0 1 0 0 2076
Kolton Ingram, projected: 29 23 8 2 0 2 16 5 0 1 0 0 2278
Ben Joyce, actual: 48 37 9 1 0 1 13 9 0 1 1 0 994
Ben Joyce, projected: 47 36 9 1 0 1 13 9 0 1 1 0 1053
Jake Lamb, actual: 4 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 489
Jake Lamb, projected: 4 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 489
Dominic Leone, actual: 61 52 15 3 1 2 26 9 0 0 0 0 1049
Dominic Leone, projected: 60 52 13 3 0 2 22 6 0 1 0 0 743
Reynaldo López, actual: 60 51 12 2 0 1 17 8 0 0 1 0 665
Reynaldo López, projected: 59 52 13 3 0 2 22 5 0 1 0 0 729
Aaron Loup, actual: 231 208 65 13 0 6 96 20 0 1 2 0 1023
Aaron Loup, projected: 225 200 50 10 1 4 74 17 2 2 5 0 659
José Marte, actual: 48 39 14 3 0 3 26 7 0 2 0 0 1985
José Marte, projected: 47 36 10 2 0 2 19 11 0 1 0 0 1445
Víctor Mederos, actual: 17 12 5 0 0 0 5 3 0 1 1 0 2360
Víctor Mederos, projected: 17 12 5 0 0 0 5 3 0 1 1 0 2360
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Matt Moore, actual: 175 159 33 7 1 6 60 12 1 1 2 0 516
Matt Moore, projected: 171 151 38 8 1 5 63 17 1 1 1 0 733
Reyes Moronta, actual: 11 8 4 0 0 1 7 3 0 0 0 0 4484
Reyes Moronta, projected: 11 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 355
Shohei Ohtani, actual: 531 463 85 15 0 18 154 55 0 1 11 1 514
Shohei Ohtani, projected: 518 462 92 18 1 14 154 46 1 2 6 1 497
Brett Phillips, actual: 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 4104
Brett Phillips, projected: 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2695
José Quijada, actual: 41 36 8 1 0 0 9 3 0 0 2 0 503
José Quijada, projected: 40 33 7 2 0 1 14 6 0 0 1 0 644
Gerardo Reyes, actual: 49 40 11 4 0 2 21 6 0 1 2 0 1428
Gerardo Reyes, projected: 48 40 10 2 1 2 19 5 0 1 1 0 1157
Kenny Rosenberg, actual: 146 131 35 7 0 3 51 14 0 0 1 0 741
Kenny Rosenberg, projected: 142 126 32 7 0 3 48 15 0 1 1 0 738
Patrick Sandoval, actual: 652 567 145 29 1 12 212 74 3 3 4 1 783
Patrick Sandoval, projected: 636 561 137 23 2 15 208 65 3 3 4 1 693
Chase Silseth, actual: 221 193 41 9 0 9 77 26 0 0 2 0 665
Chase Silseth, projected: 216 190 46 10 0 10 86 23 1 0 2 0 791
José Soriano, actual: 185 154 33 3 1 4 50 23 1 0 7 0 615
José Soriano, projected: 181 150 32 3 1 4 49 22 1 0 7 0 608
José Suarez, actual: 165 142 46 8 0 10 84 20 1 1 1 0 1375
José Suarez, projected: 161 143 39 8 0 7 67 14 1 1 2 0 888
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Ryan Tepera, actual: 46 39 15 1 0 2 22 3 0 0 2 2 1711
Ryan Tepera, projected: 45 40 8 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 1 0 491
Andrew Wantz, actual: 160 142 28 4 3 4 50 15 0 2 1 0 534
Andrew Wantz, projected: 156 138 28 4 1 5 51 15 0 1 2 0 558
Austin Warren, actual: 6 6 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1023
Austin Warren, projected: 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 283
Jacob Webb, actual: 140 117 23 4 1 6 47 20 1 0 2 0 705
Jacob Webb, projected: 137 119 27 6 1 3 44 15 1 0 1 0 611
Zack Weiss, actual: 25 22 6 0 0 2 12 2 0 0 1 0 1113
Zack Weiss, projected: 24 20 4 0 0 2 9 3 0 0 0 0 840
Angels, Actual: 6305 5526 1394 271 20 209 2332 636 14 36 88 5 797
Angels, Projected: 6154 5424 1317 264 26 186 2206 585 22 41 72 3 715
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.252 0.243
Slugging Average: 0.422 0.407
Walks (per PA): 0.101 0.095
SOs (per PA): 0.229 0.231
On-Base Average: 0.337 0.322
Power Factor: 1.673 1.675
OPS: 0.759 0.729
TPP Runs (to date): 829 718

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 111 greater than Projected Runs.





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