Skip to main content 

Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called “panorama” screen view).


The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

(click for menu)
(click for menu)
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   ( = this page)
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   ( = this page)
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).
(Be aware that “sponsored” links to other sites will appear atop the actual results.)

Search term(s):



Dodgers 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Dodgers Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.997)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Austin Barnes, actual: 200 178 32 5 0 2 43 17 1 2 2 0 314
Austin Barnes, projected: 199 171 37 7 0 4 59 23 1 1 4 0 589
Mookie Betts, actual: 693 584 179 40 1 39 338 96 0 5 8 0 1386
Mookie Betts, projected: 691 605 178 42 4 30 319 74 0 6 6 0 1137
Michael Busch, actual: 81 72 12 3 0 2 21 8 0 1 0 0 420
Michael Busch, projected: 81 72 12 3 0 2 21 8 0 1 0 0 420
Jonny Deluca, actual: 45 42 11 1 0 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 764
Jonny Deluca, projected: 45 42 11 1 0 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 764
Freddie Freeman, actual: 730 637 211 59 2 29 361 72 0 5 16 0 1350
Freddie Freeman, projected: 728 631 190 43 3 29 324 84 0 5 9 0 1121
Kiké Hernández, actual: 185 168 44 12 0 5 71 12 0 4 1 0 692
Kiké Hernández, projected: 184 165 39 9 1 6 67 16 0 2 1 0 687
Yonny Hernández, actual: 27 22 3 1 0 0 4 2 1 1 1 0 252
Yonny Hernández, projected: 27 23 4 1 0 0 5 3 0 0 1 0 388
Jason Heyward, actual: 377 334 90 23 0 15 158 34 0 3 3 3 889
Jason Heyward, projected: 376 332 86 17 2 10 136 38 0 2 3 1 794
Jake Marisnick, actual: 6 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1133
Jake Marisnick, projected: 6 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 283
J.D. Martinez, actual: 479 432 117 27 2 33 247 34 0 9 2 2 982
J.D. Martinez, projected: 478 429 123 27 2 24 225 41 0 4 3 1 972
Shelby Miller, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shelby Miller, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Max Muncy, actual: 579 482 102 17 1 36 229 85 0 6 6 0 870
Max Muncy, projected: 577 480 109 21 1 32 227 87 0 4 7 0 929
James Outman, actual: 567 483 120 16 3 23 211 68 0 4 12 0 914
James Outman, projected: 565 481 122 17 3 23 215 68 0 4 13 0 950
David Peralta, actual: 422 394 102 25 1 7 150 20 0 6 2 0 608
David Peralta, projected: 421 384 107 22 5 11 173 31 0 3 3 0 815
Miguel Rojas, actual: 423 385 91 16 1 5 124 26 2 5 5 0 506
Miguel Rojas, projected: 422 386 99 19 1 5 136 26 2 3 5 0 571
Amed Rosario, actual: 133 125 32 6 2 3 51 7 0 0 1 0 625
Amed Rosario, projected: 133 125 34 5 2 2 50 6 0 1 1 0 658
Will Smith, actual: 554 464 121 21 2 19 203 63 0 12 15 0 966
Will Smith, projected: 552 469 123 24 2 26 227 60 0 9 14 0 1001
Chris Taylor, actual: 384 338 80 15 1 15 142 41 0 1 4 0 782
Chris Taylor, projected: 383 340 86 20 3 11 147 36 1 2 4 0 794
Trayce Thompson, actual: 87 71 11 0 0 5 26 15 0 0 1 0 677
Trayce Thompson, projected: 87 77 16 3 0 4 31 9 0 0 0 0 624
Miguel Vargas, actual: 304 256 50 15 4 7 94 38 1 4 4 1 636
Miguel Vargas, projected: 303 259 50 14 3 7 91 34 1 4 3 1 581
Luke Williams, actual: 10 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 56
Luke Williams, projected: 10 9 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 338
Kolten Wong, actual: 34 30 9 0 0 2 15 2 0 1 1 0 1044
Kolten Wong, projected: 34 30 8 1 0 1 12 3 0 0 1 0 737
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Austin Wynns, actual: 12 11 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 304
Austin Wynns, projected: 12 11 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 247
Dodgers, Actual: 6333 5524 1422 303 20 249 2512 644 5 69 85 6 885
Dodgers, Projected: 6315 5527 1439 296 32 229 2492 652 5 51 78 3 866
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.257 0.260
Slugging Average: 0.455 0.451
Walks (per PA): 0.102 0.103
SOs (per PA): 0.215 0.212
On-Base Average: 0.340 0.344
Power Factor: 1.767 1.732
OPS: 0.795 0.795
TOP Runs (to date): 906 865

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 41 greater than Projected Runs.





  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2024 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the WHATWG (Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group) HyperText Markup Language (HTML5) Protocol versionless “Living Standard” and the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Cascading Style Sheets (CSS3) Protocol v3  — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.