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Brewers 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Brewers Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.029)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Orlando Arcia, actual: 189 173 45 10 1 5 72 14 0 1 1 0 642
Orlando Arcia, projected: 194 180 44 7 1 4 66 13 1 1 0 0 547
Ryan Braun, actual: 141 129 30 7 1 8 63 7 0 1 2 2 698
Ryan Braun, projected: 145 131 39 8 1 7 70 12 0 1 2 0 1034
Lorenzo Cain, actual: 21 18 6 1 0 0 7 3 0 0 0 0 902
Lorenzo Cain, projected: 22 20 6 1 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 0 731
Ben Gamel, actual: 127 114 27 8 1 3 46 13 0 0 0 0 584
Ben Gamel, projected: 131 117 31 7 1 2 45 12 0 1 1 0 720
Avisail Garcia, actual: 207 181 43 10 0 2 59 20 0 0 6 0 575
Avisail Garcia, projected: 213 196 53 8 1 6 83 13 0 1 3 0 711
Jedd Gyorko, actual: 135 117 29 3 0 9 59 15 0 2 1 0 931
Jedd Gyorko, projected: 139 125 31 5 0 6 53 12 0 1 1 0 723
Ryon Healy, actual: 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 76
Ryon Healy, projected: 7 7 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 450
Keston Hiura, actual: 246 217 46 4 0 13 89 16 0 2 11 0 658
Keston Hiura, projected: 253 226 60 12 1 14 114 17 0 1 8 0 907
Brock Holt, actual: 36 30 3 0 0 0 3 4 0 1 1 0 146
Brock Holt, projected: 37 33 9 2 0 0 12 3 0 0 0 0 637
Mark Mathias, actual: 36 36 10 3 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 611
Mark Mathias, projected: 37 37 10 3 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 570
Logan Morrison, actual: 28 25 3 1 0 1 7 3 0 0 0 0 341
Logan Morrison, projected: 29 25 6 1 0 1 11 3 0 0 0 0 693
Omar Narvaez, actual: 126 108 19 4 0 2 29 16 0 0 2 0 436
Omar Narvaez, projected: 130 113 30 4 0 3 45 15 0 0 1 0 784
Jacob Nottingham, actual: 54 48 9 1 0 4 22 5 0 0 1 0 707
Jacob Nottingham, projected: 56 48 10 1 0 3 21 6 0 0 1 0 716
Jace Peterson, actual: 61 45 9 1 0 2 16 15 0 1 0 0 1003
Jace Peterson, projected: 63 55 12 2 0 1 18 7 0 0 0 0 514
Manny Pina, actual: 45 39 9 1 0 2 16 3 0 0 3 0 779
Manny Pina, projected: 46 42 11 2 0 1 17 3 0 0 1 0 650
Justin Smoak, actual: 126 113 21 7 0 5 43 10 0 1 2 0 515
Justin Smoak, projected: 130 113 26 5 0 5 47 15 0 1 1 0 714
Eric Sogard, actual: 128 115 24 5 0 1 32 11 0 1 1 0 424
Eric Sogard, projected: 132 118 29 6 1 1 40 11 1 1 1 0 579
Tyrone Taylor, actual: 41 38 9 4 0 2 19 2 0 0 1 0 685
Tyrone Taylor, projected: 42 38 10 5 0 2 20 2 0 0 2 0 923
Luis Urias, actual: 120 109 26 4 1 0 32 10 0 0 1 0 434
Luis Urias, projected: 123 109 25 4 1 2 35 11 0 0 3 0 569
Daniel Vogelbach, actual: 67 58 19 2 0 4 33 8 0 0 1 0 1332
Daniel Vogelbach, projected: 69 58 12 2 0 3 24 11 0 0 0 0 726
Christian Yelich, actual: 247 200 41 7 1 12 86 46 0 0 1 0 850
Christian Yelich, projected: 254 222 66 13 1 9 108 29 0 1 2 0 1067
Brewers, Actual: 2188 1920 429 83 5 75 747 221 0 10 35 2 653
Brewers, Projected: 2252 2013 522 98 8 70 853 197 2 9 27 0 755
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.223 0.259
Slugging Average: 0.389 0.424
Walks (per PA): 0.101 0.087
SOs (per PA): 0.266 0.227
On-Base Average: 0.313 0.332
Power Factor: 1.741 1.634
OPS: 0.702 0.756
TOP Runs (to date): 247 275

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -28 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.