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Brewers 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Brewers Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.008)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Willy Adames, actual: 638 553 120 29 2 24 225 71 0 6 6 2 683
Willy Adames, projected: 643 576 142 31 1 26 253 60 1 3 2 0 742
Brian Anderson, actual: 361 318 72 12 3 9 117 36 0 3 4 0 601
Brian Anderson, projected: 364 321 81 17 2 10 129 34 0 2 8 0 753
Mike Brosseau, actual: 78 73 15 2 0 4 29 4 0 0 1 0 526
Mike Brosseau, projected: 79 71 17 3 0 3 30 6 0 0 2 0 700
Mark Canha, actual: 204 178 51 10 0 5 76 17 0 1 8 0 936
Mark Canha, projected: 206 176 44 9 1 7 75 20 0 2 7 0 859
Víctor Caratini, actual: 226 201 52 4 0 7 77 19 0 3 3 0 710
Víctor Caratini, projected: 228 201 47 8 0 6 72 21 0 2 4 0 621
William Contreras, actual: 611 540 157 38 1 17 248 63 1 2 5 0 895
William Contreras, projected: 616 546 151 30 2 23 254 63 1 3 4 0 888
Josh Donaldson, actual: 69 59 10 4 0 3 23 10 0 0 0 0 517
Josh Donaldson, projected: 70 60 16 3 0 3 29 9 0 1 1 0 941
Sal Frelick, actual: 223 191 47 9 1 3 67 28 0 3 1 0 759
Sal Frelick, projected: 225 193 47 9 1 3 68 28 0 3 1 0 742
Jahmai Jones, actual: 11 10 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 626
Jahmai Jones, projected: 11 10 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 207
Owen Miller, actual: 314 291 76 17 0 5 108 17 0 4 2 0 627
Owen Miller, projected: 317 290 70 16 0 5 101 19 0 4 3 0 550
Garrett Mitchell, actual: 73 65 16 2 1 3 29 7 0 1 0 0 819
Garrett Mitchell, projected: 74 66 18 3 1 3 30 7 1 1 0 0 1038
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Andruw Monasterio, actual: 315 282 73 14 1 3 98 28 0 2 3 0 638
Andruw Monasterio, projected: 318 284 74 14 1 3 99 28 0 2 3 0 635
Blake Perkins, actual: 168 143 31 7 0 4 50 23 2 0 0 0 604
Blake Perkins, projected: 169 144 31 7 0 4 50 23 2 0 0 0 595
Darin Ruf, actual: 30 26 5 1 0 0 6 4 0 0 0 0 392
Darin Ruf, projected: 30 26 6 1 0 1 11 3 0 0 0 0 695
Carlos Santana, actual: 226 205 51 8 1 11 94 20 0 1 0 0 735
Carlos Santana, projected: 228 192 46 10 0 8 83 34 0 2 1 0 834
Jon Singleton, actual: 32 29 3 1 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 112
Jon Singleton, projected: 32 28 5 1 0 1 9 4 0 0 0 0 501
Raimel Tapia, actual: 61 52 9 0 0 2 15 6 1 1 1 0 460
Raimel Tapia, projected: 62 57 16 3 0 1 22 4 0 0 0 0 661
Tyrone Taylor, actual: 243 231 54 17 1 10 103 8 0 1 3 0 572
Tyrone Taylor, projected: 245 226 54 13 2 10 102 13 0 1 5 0 668
Rowdy Tellez, actual: 351 311 67 9 1 13 117 35 0 5 0 0 590
Rowdy Tellez, projected: 354 318 74 15 1 17 142 30 0 3 3 0 699
Abraham Toro, actual: 21 18 8 0 0 2 14 2 0 0 1 0 2732
Abraham Toro, projected: 21 19 4 1 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 0 640
Brice Turang, actual: 448 404 88 9 3 6 121 38 3 2 1 0 491
Brice Turang, projected: 452 407 89 9 3 6 122 38 3 2 1 0 491
Luis Urías, actual: 68 55 8 2 0 1 13 7 0 0 5 1 426
Luis Urías, projected: 69 59 14 3 0 2 23 7 0 0 2 0 708
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Luke Voit, actual: 74 68 15 3 0 0 18 4 0 0 2 0 380
Luke Voit, projected: 75 66 17 3 0 4 31 7 0 0 1 0 889
Joey Wiemer, actual: 410 367 75 19 0 13 133 36 0 2 5 0 569
Joey Wiemer, projected: 413 370 76 19 0 13 134 36 0 2 5 0 570
Jesse Winker, actual: 197 166 33 5 0 1 41 26 0 1 4 0 504
Jesse Winker, projected: 199 169 45 9 0 7 75 26 0 1 3 0 931
Christian Yelich, actual: 632 550 153 34 1 19 246 78 0 1 3 0 942
Christian Yelich, projected: 637 553 158 31 3 20 256 77 0 3 5 0 1008
Brewers, Actual: 6084 5386 1291 257 16 165 2075 591 7 39 58 3 682
Brewers, Projected: 6137 5428 1344 268 18 187 2209 600 8 37 61 0 732
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.240 0.248
Slugging Average: 0.385 0.407
Walks (per PA): 0.097 0.098
SOs (per PA): 0.232 0.233
On-Base Average: 0.319 0.327
Power Factor: 1.607 1.644
OPS: 0.705 0.734
TOP Runs (to date): 728 730

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -2 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.