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Yankees 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Yankees Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.018)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Greg Allen, actual: 28 23 5 1 1 1 11 2 1 0 2 0 890
Greg Allen, projected: 28 25 6 1 0 0 9 2 0 0 1 0 533
Harrison Bader, actual: 310 288 69 11 2 7 105 14 1 4 3 0 565
Harrison Bader, projected: 315 284 69 13 2 9 112 23 1 2 6 0 698
Jake Bauers, actual: 272 242 49 15 0 12 100 27 0 3 0 0 623
Jake Bauers, projected: 277 241 51 12 1 8 87 31 0 2 2 0 624
Oswaldo Cabrera, actual: 330 298 63 11 0 5 89 25 3 2 2 0 435
Oswaldo Cabrera, projected: 336 303 68 13 1 7 104 27 3 2 1 0 526
Willie Calhoun, actual: 149 134 32 7 0 5 54 14 0 1 0 0 658
Willie Calhoun, projected: 152 138 33 6 1 5 56 11 0 1 1 0 650
Franchy Cordero, actual: 71 69 13 2 0 6 33 2 0 0 0 0 607
Franchy Cordero, projected: 72 65 14 3 0 2 26 6 0 0 0 0 537
Jasson Domínguez, actual: 33 31 8 1 0 4 21 2 0 0 0 0 1040
Jasson Domínguez, projected: 34 32 8 1 0 4 21 2 0 0 0 0 986
Josh Donaldson, actual: 120 106 15 1 0 10 46 12 0 2 0 0 604
Josh Donaldson, projected: 122 105 27 6 0 6 51 15 0 1 1 0 963
Estevan Florial, actual: 71 61 14 3 1 0 19 7 0 1 2 0 667
Estevan Florial, projected: 72 62 13 3 1 1 18 8 0 1 2 0 658
Aaron Hicks, actual: 76 69 13 2 0 1 18 7 0 0 0 0 368
Aaron Hicks, projected: 77 66 15 3 0 2 26 10 0 1 0 0 737
Kyle Higashioka, actual: 260 242 57 13 0 10 100 14 1 3 0 0 590
Kyle Higashioka, projected: 265 246 52 11 0 11 97 15 1 3 1 0 525
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Aaron Judge, actual: 458 367 98 16 0 37 225 88 0 3 0 0 1350
Aaron Judge, projected: 466 387 109 18 1 33 227 72 0 3 3 1 1275
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, actual: 361 326 79 12 1 6 111 28 1 3 3 0 552
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, projected: 367 337 88 14 2 4 117 22 2 2 5 0 593
DJ LeMahieu, actual: 562 497 121 22 3 15 194 60 0 2 3 0 674
DJ LeMahieu, projected: 572 514 150 24 3 11 214 48 3 4 3 0 817
Billy McKinney, actual: 147 128 29 3 1 6 52 17 0 1 1 0 735
Billy McKinney, projected: 150 134 28 6 1 6 52 14 0 1 1 0 619
Oswald Peraza, actual: 191 173 33 8 0 2 47 13 0 0 5 0 375
Oswald Peraza, projected: 194 174 38 9 0 2 53 15 0 0 5 0 485
Everson Pereira, actual: 103 93 14 4 0 0 18 8 0 0 2 0 234
Everson Pereira, projected: 105 95 14 4 0 0 18 8 0 0 2 0 222
Anthony Rizzo, actual: 421 373 91 14 0 12 141 35 0 1 12 0 653
Anthony Rizzo, projected: 428 366 96 20 1 18 174 46 0 3 13 0 932
Ben Rortvedt, actual: 79 68 8 1 0 2 15 11 0 0 0 0 309
Ben Rortvedt, projected: 80 71 10 1 0 2 18 8 1 0 0 0 294
Giancarlo Stanton, actual: 415 371 71 13 0 24 156 41 0 1 2 0 600
Giancarlo Stanton, projected: 422 368 95 19 1 26 195 48 0 2 3 0 959
Gleyber Torres, actual: 672 596 163 28 2 25 270 67 0 6 3 0 854
Gleyber Torres, projected: 684 612 163 29 1 28 278 61 1 5 4 0 819
Jose Trevino, actual: 168 157 33 4 0 4 49 8 1 0 2 0 410
Jose Trevino, projected: 171 161 39 8 0 4 59 7 1 1 1 0 496
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Anthony Volpe, actual: 601 541 113 23 4 21 207 52 1 2 5 0 587
Anthony Volpe, projected: 612 551 115 23 4 21 211 53 1 2 5 0 582
Austin Wells, actual: 75 70 16 6 0 4 34 3 0 1 0 1 615
Austin Wells, projected: 76 71 16 6 0 4 35 3 0 1 0 1 599
Yankees, Actual: 5973 5323 1207 221 15 219 2115 557 9 36 47 1 652
Yankees, Projected: 6077 5408 1317 253 20 214 2258 555 14 37 60 2 718
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.227 0.244
Slugging Average: 0.397 0.418
Walks (per PA): 0.093 0.091
SOs (per PA): 0.239 0.230
On-Base Average: 0.304 0.319
Power Factor: 1.752 1.715
OPS: 0.701 0.736
TOP Runs (to date): 673 718

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -45 less than Projected Runs.





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