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Athletics 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Athletics Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.005)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jesús Aguilar, actual: 115 104 23 2 0 5 40 8 0 1 1 1 578
Jesús Aguilar, projected: 116 102 26 5 0 5 46 10 0 2 1 1 812
Nick Allen, actual: 329 303 67 4 2 4 87 17 6 2 1 0 383
Nick Allen, projected: 331 304 65 9 1 4 88 18 6 2 1 0 370
JJ Bleday, actual: 303 256 50 11 0 10 91 42 0 3 2 0 646
JJ Bleday, projected: 304 259 47 12 1 8 87 41 0 3 2 0 556
Jonah Bride, actual: 106 88 15 3 0 0 18 11 1 2 4 0 326
Jonah Bride, projected: 106 91 17 3 0 0 21 11 1 1 3 0 348
Seth Brown, actual: 378 343 76 19 1 14 139 30 1 2 2 0 599
Seth Brown, projected: 380 344 78 19 2 17 152 32 0 1 2 0 675
Lawrence Butler, actual: 129 123 26 4 0 4 42 4 0 1 1 0 406
Lawrence Butler, projected: 130 124 26 4 0 4 42 4 0 1 1 0 400
Conner Capel, actual: 86 73 19 5 0 0 24 12 0 0 1 0 728
Conner Capel, projected: 86 74 21 3 1 2 30 10 0 1 1 0 944
Aledmys Díaz, actual: 344 315 72 20 1 4 106 17 1 4 7 0 439
Aledmys Díaz, projected: 346 316 83 19 1 11 135 21 1 3 5 0 711
Jordan Diaz, actual: 293 272 60 9 0 10 99 17 0 1 3 0 498
Jordan Diaz, projected: 294 275 62 10 0 9 98 16 0 1 3 0 498
Zack Gelof, actual: 300 270 72 20 1 14 136 26 0 1 3 0 905
Zack Gelof, projected: 301 271 72 20 1 14 137 26 0 1 3 0 899
Tony Kemp, actual: 419 359 75 13 3 5 109 44 7 3 6 0 501
Tony Kemp, projected: 421 364 87 16 3 7 128 43 4 4 6 0 661
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Shea Langeliers, actual: 490 448 92 19 4 22 185 34 1 2 5 0 564
Shea Langeliers, projected: 492 452 94 22 4 21 188 33 1 3 4 0 555
Ramón Laureano, actual: 246 225 48 10 3 6 82 17 0 0 4 0 536
Ramón Laureano, projected: 247 220 54 13 1 9 95 18 0 2 7 0 762
Ryan Noda, actual: 495 406 93 22 1 16 165 77 0 2 10 0 851
Ryan Noda, projected: 497 408 93 22 1 16 166 77 0 2 10 0 846
Carlos Pérez, actual: 189 168 38 4 0 6 60 13 1 3 4 0 593
Carlos Pérez, projected: 190 174 38 8 0 4 57 10 3 2 1 0 449
Jace Peterson, actual: 324 281 62 7 2 6 91 36 1 3 3 0 595
Jace Peterson, projected: 325 283 64 12 2 5 95 36 2 2 2 0 589
Manny Piña, actual: 12 12 3 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 586
Manny Piña, projected: 12 11 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 489
Brent Rooker, actual: 526 463 114 20 1 30 226 49 0 4 10 0 867
Brent Rooker, projected: 528 467 108 22 1 27 210 44 0 3 15 0 774
Esteury Ruiz, actual: 497 449 114 24 1 5 155 20 4 1 16 7 660
Esteury Ruiz, projected: 499 453 112 23 2 5 154 20 4 1 15 7 617
Kevin Smith, actual: 146 135 25 4 0 5 44 5 5 0 1 0 347
Kevin Smith, projected: 147 135 23 6 0 4 41 7 4 1 1 0 320
Tyler Soderstrom, actual: 138 125 20 1 0 3 30 11 0 1 1 0 285
Tyler Soderstrom, projected: 139 126 20 1 0 3 30 11 0 1 1 0 281
Cody Thomas, actual: 46 42 10 3 0 1 16 4 0 0 0 0 570
Cody Thomas, projected: 46 43 11 2 0 1 14 4 0 0 0 0 591
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Tyler Wade, actual: 55 51 13 1 1 0 16 4 0 0 0 0 622
Tyler Wade, projected: 55 49 11 2 0 1 15 5 1 0 0 0 527
Athletics, Actual: 5966 5311 1187 225 21 171 1967 498 28 36 85 8 595
Athletics, Projected: 5992 5345 1215 254 21 177 2033 498 27 37 84 8 617
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.223 0.227
Slugging Average: 0.370 0.380
Walks (per PA): 0.083 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.251 0.248
On-Base Average: 0.298 0.301
Power Factor: 1.657 1.673
OPS: 0.669 0.682
TOP Runs (to date): 585 623

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -38 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.