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Phillies 2020 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Phillies Projected Pitching

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.969)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Jose Alvarez, actual: 27 24 7 2 0 0 9 3 0 0 0 0 696
Jose Alvarez, projected: 26 24 6 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 698
Jake Arrieta, actual: 190 171 51 9 0 6 78 16 0 2 1 0 857
Jake Arrieta, projected: 184 165 39 8 1 5 61 15 1 1 2 0 636
Connor Brogdon, actual: 44 39 5 1 0 3 15 5 0 0 0 0 506
Connor Brogdon, projected: 43 38 5 1 0 3 15 5 0 0 0 0 526
Garrett Cleavinger, actual: 4 4 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 3443
Garrett Cleavinger, projected: 4 4 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 3443
Austin Davis, actual: 20 19 10 1 0 1 14 1 0 0 0 0 3200
Austin Davis, projected: 19 17 5 1 0 1 8 2 0 0 0 0 1151
Zach Eflin, actual: 245 228 60 18 0 8 102 15 1 0 1 0 670
Zach Eflin, projected: 237 217 59 14 1 9 102 15 2 2 2 0 820
Deolis Guerra, actual: 36 32 10 1 0 3 20 2 0 0 2 0 1358
Deolis Guerra, projected: 35 32 9 2 0 2 15 2 0 0 0 0 896
David Hale, actual: 49 48 16 5 0 2 27 1 0 0 0 0 1011
David Hale, projected: 47 43 12 3 0 1 19 3 0 0 0 0 743
Heath Hembree, actual: 50 42 17 2 1 7 42 5 0 1 2 0 2617
Heath Hembree, projected: 48 44 11 2 0 2 20 4 0 0 0 0 834
Spencer Howard, actual: 113 100 30 3 1 6 53 10 0 2 1 0 1145
Spencer Howard, projected: 110 97 29 3 1 6 51 10 0 2 1 0 1134
Tommy Hunter, actual: 102 92 22 6 1 2 36 6 1 0 3 0 599
Tommy Hunter, projected: 99 92 24 4 0 3 39 5 0 0 1 0 643
Cole Irvin, actual: 22 21 11 1 1 1 17 1 0 0 0 0 3161
Cole Irvin, projected: 21 19 6 1 0 1 10 1 0 0 0 0 983
Trevor Kelley, actual: 19 18 8 1 0 2 15 1 0 0 0 0 2399
Trevor Kelley, projected: 18 15 5 2 0 1 11 2 0 1 0 0 1864
Mauricio Llovera, actual: 10 8 5 2 0 0 7 1 0 0 1 0 6912
Mauricio Llovera, projected: 10 8 5 2 0 0 7 1 0 0 1 0 6912
Reggie McClain, actual: 29 25 9 2 0 1 14 3 0 1 0 0 1823
Reggie McClain, projected: 28 24 7 2 0 1 11 4 0 0 0 0 1175
Adonis Medina, actual: 18 15 3 1 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 516
Adonis Medina, projected: 17 15 3 1 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 552
Adam Morgan, actual: 58 52 14 3 0 3 26 6 0 0 0 0 937
Adam Morgan, projected: 56 51 14 3 0 2 24 4 0 0 0 0 771
Hector Neris, actual: 103 90 24 2 1 0 28 13 0 0 0 0 760
Hector Neris, projected: 100 89 20 3 0 3 34 8 0 0 1 0 588
Aaron Nola, actual: 289 263 54 12 0 9 93 23 0 1 2 0 524
Aaron Nola, projected: 280 254 58 11 1 7 94 21 1 1 2 0 563
Blake Parker, actual: 69 59 12 2 1 2 22 9 0 1 0 0 664
Blake Parker, projected: 67 60 14 2 0 2 24 5 0 1 1 0 660
David Phelps, actual: 37 34 12 1 0 5 28 3 0 0 0 0 1731
David Phelps, projected: 36 32 8 1 0 1 12 3 0 0 0 0 643
Nick Pivetta, actual: 29 26 10 4 1 3 25 1 0 1 1 0 2217
Nick Pivetta, projected: 28 25 7 1 0 1 12 2 0 0 0 0 794
JoJo Romero, actual: 47 42 13 3 0 1 19 2 1 0 2 0 820
JoJo Romero, projected: 46 41 13 3 0 1 18 2 1 0 2 0 867
Ramon Rosso, actual: 46 37 9 4 0 1 16 8 0 0 1 0 949
Ramon Rosso, projected: 45 36 9 4 0 1 16 8 0 0 1 0 1005
Ranger Suarez, actual: 26 21 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 1 0 3036
Ranger Suarez, projected: 25 23 7 1 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 892
Vince Velasquez, actual: 154 134 36 8 0 5 59 17 0 0 3 0 866
Vince Velasquez, projected: 149 132 34 7 1 5 59 14 1 1 2 0 778
Neil Walker, actual: 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 244
Neil Walker, projected: 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 244
Zack Wheeler, actual: 288 264 67 16 0 3 92 16 1 0 7 0 493
Zack Wheeler, projected: 279 249 62 11 0 6 92 23 2 2 3 0 644
Brandon Workman, actual: 70 61 23 5 1 4 42 9 0 0 0 0 1825
Brandon Workman, projected: 68 59 14 3 0 2 23 7 0 1 0 0 733
Phillies, Actual: 2197 1971 550 117 8 80 923 185 4 9 28 0 870
Phillies, Projected: 2128 1907 487 97 5 69 806 174 8 12 19 0 741
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.279 0.255
Slugging Average: 0.468 0.423
Walks (per PA): 0.084 0.082
SOs (per PA): 0.242 0.227
On-Base Average: 0.348 0.322
Power Factor: 1.678 1.655
OPS: 0.816 0.745
TPP Runs (to date): 311 257

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 54 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.