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Padres 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Padres Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.015)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
José Azocar, actual: 102 91 21 6 0 2 33 4 5 0 2 0 475
José Azocar, projected: 103 95 24 5 1 1 33 5 2 0 1 0 478
Matthew Batten, actual: 139 120 31 6 0 2 43 17 1 0 1 0 725
Matthew Batten, projected: 141 122 29 6 0 2 40 17 1 0 2 0 646
Xander Bogaerts, actual: 665 596 170 31 2 19 262 56 0 6 7 0 868
Xander Bogaerts, projected: 675 605 176 38 2 20 276 58 1 5 6 0 918
Luis Campusano, actual: 174 163 52 7 0 7 80 7 0 1 3 0 920
Luis Campusano, projected: 177 165 45 5 0 6 68 8 0 1 3 0 667
Matt Carpenter, actual: 237 188 33 12 0 5 60 41 0 5 2 1 649
Matt Carpenter, projected: 240 202 52 14 1 7 91 32 1 2 3 0 919
Ji Man Choi, actual: 41 31 2 1 0 0 3 8 0 1 1 0 239
Ji Man Choi, projected: 42 35 8 2 0 2 15 5 0 0 0 0 773
Garrett Cooper, actual: 133 117 28 7 0 4 47 14 0 1 1 0 647
Garrett Cooper, projected: 135 121 33 7 0 4 53 11 0 1 2 0 792
Jake Cronenworth, actual: 522 458 105 24 7 10 173 46 1 5 11 1 648
Jake Cronenworth, projected: 530 463 115 26 5 13 193 49 1 4 10 2 765
Nelson Cruz, actual: 152 143 35 5 1 5 57 6 0 1 2 0 604
Nelson Cruz, projected: 154 138 38 7 0 9 71 14 0 1 2 0 966
David Dahl, actual: 9 9 1 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 511
David Dahl, projected: 9 8 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 354
Brandon Dixon, actual: 86 79 16 4 0 2 26 1 0 2 4 0 451
Brandon Dixon, projected: 87 82 18 4 1 3 32 4 0 1 1 0 578
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Adam Engel, actual: 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36
Adam Engel, projected: 6 6 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 226
Ben Gamel, actual: 15 15 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 215
Ben Gamel, projected: 15 13 3 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 570
Trent Grisham, actual: 555 469 93 31 1 13 165 75 4 1 5 1 610
Trent Grisham, projected: 563 484 104 25 3 17 185 65 4 3 7 1 672
Ha-Seong Kim, actual: 626 538 140 23 0 17 214 75 5 5 3 0 867
Ha-Seong Kim, projected: 635 558 137 27 2 15 213 62 4 5 6 0 715
Taylor Kohlwey, actual: 13 13 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 92
Taylor Kohlwey, projected: 13 13 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 92
Manny Machado, actual: 601 543 140 21 0 30 251 50 0 6 2 0 778
Manny Machado, projected: 610 551 154 30 2 28 270 50 1 5 2 0 885
Austin Nola, actual: 154 130 19 3 0 1 25 18 4 0 2 0 237
Austin Nola, projected: 156 137 34 7 0 3 51 14 1 2 3 0 668
Rougned Odor, actual: 157 138 28 9 0 4 49 17 0 0 2 0 557
Rougned Odor, projected: 159 146 33 7 1 6 61 10 0 1 3 0 608
Jurickson Profar, actual: 49 44 13 2 0 1 18 5 0 0 0 0 800
Jurickson Profar, projected: 50 44 10 2 0 1 17 5 0 0 1 0 598
Alfonso Rivas, actual: 17 15 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 459
Alfonso Rivas, projected: 17 15 4 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 685
Eguy Rosario, actual: 37 36 9 1 1 2 18 1 0 0 0 0 690
Eguy Rosario, projected: 38 36 9 1 1 2 17 2 0 0 0 0 693
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Gary Sánchez, actual: 260 234 51 9 0 19 117 21 0 1 4 0 794
Gary Sánchez, projected: 264 233 52 10 0 16 109 25 0 1 4 0 771
Chandler Seagle, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chandler Seagle, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Juan Soto, actual: 708 568 156 32 1 35 295 132 1 5 2 0 1194
Juan Soto, projected: 718 575 163 31 2 34 302 136 0 3 3 0 1249
Brett Sullivan, actual: 86 81 17 3 0 1 23 4 0 1 0 0 358
Brett Sullivan, projected: 87 82 17 3 0 1 23 4 0 1 0 0 349
Fernando Tatis Jr., actual: 635 575 148 33 1 25 258 53 1 3 3 0 787
Fernando Tatis Jr., projected: 644 573 161 31 3 38 311 61 0 4 5 0 1063
Padres, Actual: 6180 5401 1316 273 14 205 2232 653 22 44 57 3 760
Padres, Projected: 6269 5503 1424 290 24 228 2449 642 16 40 64 3 834
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.244 0.259
Slugging Average: 0.413 0.445
Walks (per PA): 0.106 0.102
SOs (per PA): 0.212 0.210
On-Base Average: 0.329 0.341
Power Factor: 1.696 1.720
OPS: 0.742 0.786
TOP Runs (to date): 752 831

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -79 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.