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Mariners 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Mariners Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.988)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
José Caballero, actual: 280 231 51 9 1 4 74 28 0 4 17 0 809
José Caballero, projected: 277 228 50 9 1 4 73 28 0 4 17 0 811
Dominic Canzone, actual: 141 135 29 11 0 5 55 6 0 0 0 0 490
Dominic Canzone, projected: 139 132 29 10 0 5 53 6 0 0 1 0 524
J.P. Crawford, actual: 638 534 142 35 0 19 234 94 3 2 5 0 957
J.P. Crawford, projected: 630 545 138 30 3 10 205 71 2 4 7 0 732
Mike Ford, actual: 251 219 50 6 0 16 104 24 0 1 7 0 829
Mike Ford, projected: 248 216 46 8 0 12 90 26 0 1 5 0 699
Ty France, actual: 665 587 147 32 0 12 215 43 0 1 34 0 642
Ty France, projected: 657 585 158 31 1 18 244 41 0 4 26 0 780
Sam Haggerty, actual: 108 91 23 3 1 1 31 15 1 0 1 0 852
Sam Haggerty, projected: 107 94 22 4 0 2 34 10 1 0 1 0 634
Teoscar Hernández, actual: 678 625 161 29 2 26 272 38 0 7 8 0 733
Teoscar Hernández, projected: 670 614 160 34 3 33 298 47 0 3 5 0 809
Cooper Hummel, actual: 26 23 2 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 107
Cooper Hummel, projected: 26 23 4 1 0 0 6 3 0 0 0 0 292
Jarred Kelenic, actual: 416 372 94 25 2 11 156 41 0 2 1 0 734
Jarred Kelenic, projected: 411 368 75 18 2 13 137 39 0 2 2 0 549
Tommy La Stella, actual: 24 21 4 1 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 377
Tommy La Stella, projected: 24 21 6 1 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 0 650
Cade Marlowe, actual: 100 88 21 3 2 3 37 12 0 0 0 0 748
Cade Marlowe, projected: 99 87 21 3 2 3 37 12 0 0 0 0 766
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Dylan Moore, actual: 165 145 30 9 1 7 62 16 0 0 4 0 688
Dylan Moore, projected: 163 140 29 7 1 6 55 17 0 0 5 0 667
Tom Murphy, actual: 159 145 42 12 0 8 78 10 0 2 1 1 953
Tom Murphy, projected: 157 141 34 7 0 7 64 14 0 1 1 1 742
Brian O'Keefe, actual: 21 19 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 74
Brian O'Keefe, projected: 21 18 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 117
AJ Pollock, actual: 138 127 22 4 0 5 41 9 0 2 0 0 422
AJ Pollock, projected: 136 124 34 7 1 5 58 10 0 1 1 0 843
Cal Raleigh, actual: 569 513 119 23 1 30 234 54 0 1 1 0 747
Cal Raleigh, projected: 562 507 110 27 1 29 227 49 0 3 2 0 683
Julio Rodríguez, actual: 714 654 180 37 2 32 317 47 0 2 11 0 873
Julio Rodríguez, projected: 705 645 180 34 3 33 319 48 0 2 11 0 916
Josh Rojas, actual: 134 125 34 4 0 4 50 9 0 0 0 0 766
Josh Rojas, projected: 132 116 30 7 0 2 43 13 1 1 0 0 710
Eugenio Suárez, actual: 694 598 139 29 0 22 234 70 0 11 15 0 732
Eugenio Suárez, projected: 685 599 148 26 2 32 273 69 1 6 10 0 833
Luis Torrens, actual: 8 8 2 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 489
Luis Torrens, projected: 8 7 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 488
Taylor Trammell, actual: 56 46 6 0 0 3 15 9 0 0 1 0 508
Taylor Trammell, projected: 55 48 8 3 0 2 18 6 0 0 1 0 476
Kolten Wong, actual: 216 194 32 6 0 2 44 16 0 2 4 0 302
Kolten Wong, projected: 213 189 48 9 2 4 74 16 1 2 5 0 714
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Mariners, Actual: 6201 5500 1332 283 12 210 2269 548 4 37 111 1 741
Mariners, Projected: 6125 5447 1334 278 22 220 2323 530 6 34 100 1 745
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.242 0.245
Slugging Average: 0.413 0.426
Walks (per PA): 0.088 0.087
SOs (per PA): 0.259 0.249
On-Base Average: 0.321 0.321
Power Factor: 1.703 1.741
OPS: 0.734 0.748
TOP Runs (to date): 758 749

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 9 greater than Projected Runs.





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