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Giants 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Giants Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.999)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Patrick Bailey, actual: 353 326 76 18 1 7 117 21 2 1 3 0 503
Patrick Bailey, projected: 353 326 76 18 1 7 117 21 2 1 3 0 503
Joey Bart, actual: 95 87 18 5 0 0 23 3 0 1 4 0 365
Joey Bart, projected: 95 86 19 3 0 2 29 6 0 0 2 0 505
Matt Beaty, actual: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 180
Matt Beaty, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 481
Johan Camargo, actual: 20 18 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 267
Johan Camargo, projected: 20 18 5 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 814
Michael Conforto, actual: 470 406 97 14 0 15 156 53 0 4 7 0 710
Michael Conforto, projected: 470 403 102 21 1 20 184 56 0 3 8 0 885
Brandon Crawford, actual: 320 283 55 11 1 7 89 28 1 4 4 0 474
Brandon Crawford, projected: 320 286 71 15 2 7 113 27 0 3 3 0 653
J.D. Davis, actual: 546 480 119 23 1 18 198 52 0 6 6 2 738
J.D. Davis, projected: 546 479 125 24 1 19 207 54 0 4 8 1 810
Paul DeJong, actual: 50 49 9 2 0 1 14 0 0 1 0 0 260
Paul DeJong, projected: 50 45 10 2 0 2 19 4 0 0 1 0 618
Isan Díaz, actual: 21 19 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 35
Isan Díaz, projected: 21 18 3 1 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 301
Thairo Estrada, actual: 530 495 134 26 2 14 206 22 0 2 11 0 709
Thairo Estrada, projected: 530 486 127 22 2 16 199 27 1 3 12 0 724
Tyler Fitzgerald, actual: 34 32 7 2 0 2 15 2 0 0 0 0 691
Tyler Fitzgerald, projected: 34 32 7 2 0 2 15 2 0 0 0 0 691
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Wilmer Flores, actual: 454 405 115 22 0 23 206 41 0 3 5 0 957
Wilmer Flores, projected: 454 414 109 22 1 17 183 31 0 4 4 0 756
Mitch Haniger, actual: 229 211 44 13 1 6 77 15 0 1 2 0 469
Mitch Haniger, projected: 229 204 52 10 1 10 95 20 0 2 3 0 832
Bryce Johnson, actual: 48 43 7 1 0 1 11 4 0 1 0 0 403
Bryce Johnson, projected: 48 44 6 1 0 1 9 4 0 1 0 0 319
Marco Luciano, actual: 45 39 9 3 0 0 12 6 0 0 0 0 598
Marco Luciano, projected: 45 39 9 3 0 0 12 6 0 0 0 0 598
Mark Mathias, actual: 10 10 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 90
Mark Mathias, projected: 10 9 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 400
Luis Matos, actual: 253 228 57 13 1 2 78 20 2 0 3 0 599
Luis Matos, projected: 253 228 57 13 1 2 78 20 2 0 3 0 599
Wade Meckler, actual: 64 56 13 1 0 0 14 6 0 0 2 0 504
Wade Meckler, projected: 64 56 13 1 0 0 14 6 0 0 2 0 504
Joc Pederson, actual: 425 358 84 14 3 15 149 57 0 3 7 0 780
Joc Pederson, projected: 425 366 87 18 2 20 170 49 1 2 7 0 826
Roberto Pérez, actual: 17 15 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 180
Roberto Pérez, projected: 17 15 3 1 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 720
AJ Pollock, actual: 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AJ Pollock, projected: 6 5 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 283
Heliot Ramos, actual: 60 56 10 4 0 1 17 4 0 0 0 0 341
Heliot Ramos, projected: 60 56 9 3 0 1 14 4 0 0 0 0 287
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Darin Ruf, actual: 27 23 6 2 0 0 8 4 0 0 0 0 759
Darin Ruf, projected: 27 23 6 1 0 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 749
Blake Sabol, actual: 344 310 73 10 0 13 122 24 2 2 6 0 662
Blake Sabol, projected: 344 310 73 10 0 13 122 24 2 2 6 0 662
Casey Schmitt, actual: 277 253 52 15 0 5 82 13 3 3 5 0 399
Casey Schmitt, projected: 277 253 52 15 0 5 82 13 3 3 5 0 399
Austin Slater, actual: 207 185 50 9 0 5 74 20 0 0 2 0 799
Austin Slater, projected: 207 182 47 8 1 5 73 21 0 0 3 0 781
Cal Stevenson, actual: 12 9 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 234
Cal Stevenson, projected: 12 10 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 175
David Villar, actual: 140 124 18 6 0 5 39 11 0 1 4 0 413
David Villar, projected: 140 122 24 5 0 6 48 13 0 1 4 0 614
LaMonte Wade Jr., actual: 519 429 110 14 2 17 179 76 4 4 6 0 938
LaMonte Wade Jr., projected: 519 442 107 18 3 18 185 62 4 3 8 0 811
Brett Wisely, actual: 131 120 21 5 0 2 32 9 1 1 0 0 304
Brett Wisely, projected: 131 120 21 5 0 2 32 9 1 1 0 0 304
Austin Wynns, actual: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Wynns, projected: 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Yastrzemski, actual: 381 330 77 23 1 15 147 45 2 1 3 0 751
Mike Yastrzemski, projected: 381 334 80 21 2 16 154 40 1 2 4 0 802
Giants, Actual: 6095 5412 1271 256 13 174 2075 544 17 39 81 2 656
Giants, Projected: 6095 5417 1305 264 18 194 2193 530 17 35 86 1 692
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.235 0.241
Slugging Average: 0.383 0.405
Walks (per PA): 0.089 0.087
SOs (per PA): 0.245 0.242
On-Base Average: 0.312 0.317
Power Factor: 1.633 1.680
OPS: 0.695 0.721
TOP Runs (to date): 674 695

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -21 less than Projected Runs.





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