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Giants 2020 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Giants Projected Pitching

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.984)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Shaun Anderson, actual: 67 55 10 0 1 3 21 12 0 0 0 0 734
Shaun Anderson, projected: 66 58 16 3 0 2 26 7 1 0 0 0 778
Tyler Anderson, actual: 260 227 58 16 2 5 93 25 1 3 4 0 769
Tyler Anderson, projected: 256 230 61 14 2 9 106 20 2 2 2 0 783
Caleb Baragar, actual: 88 81 17 6 0 3 32 5 0 1 1 0 529
Caleb Baragar, projected: 87 80 17 6 0 3 31 5 0 1 1 0 542
Trevor Cahill, actual: 106 87 16 4 0 3 29 14 1 2 2 0 670
Trevor Cahill, projected: 104 92 23 5 1 3 37 10 1 1 1 0 766
Sam Coonrod, actual: 71 60 17 5 1 2 30 7 0 1 2 1 1192
Sam Coonrod, projected: 70 58 14 3 0 2 23 8 0 0 2 0 758
Johnny Cueto, actual: 277 246 61 12 2 9 104 26 0 2 3 0 767
Johnny Cueto, projected: 273 246 60 12 1 7 95 19 2 1 4 0 606
Jarlin Garcia, actual: 73 61 11 2 0 0 13 7 0 3 2 0 398
Jarlin Garcia, projected: 72 64 14 2 0 2 25 6 0 1 1 0 588
Rico Garcia, actual: 44 39 13 3 0 1 19 4 0 1 0 0 1016
Rico Garcia, projected: 43 37 13 4 0 2 23 5 0 1 0 0 1462
Kevin Gausman, actual: 245 226 50 10 2 8 88 16 0 2 0 1 601
Kevin Gausman, projected: 241 220 58 12 1 8 95 17 1 2 1 0 750
Trevor Gott, actual: 57 48 13 3 1 7 39 8 0 0 1 0 1565
Trevor Gott, projected: 56 49 12 2 0 2 20 5 0 1 1 0 743
Tyler Heineman, actual: 3 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tyler Heineman, projected: 3 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dany Jimenez, actual: 8 5 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 1162
Dany Jimenez, projected: 8 5 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 1162
Conner Menez, actual: 45 38 6 2 0 2 14 5 1 0 1 0 497
Conner Menez, projected: 44 36 7 2 0 2 15 6 1 0 0 0 623
Wandy Peralta, actual: 114 100 22 0 2 3 35 11 0 1 2 0 627
Wandy Peralta, projected: 112 97 25 4 0 3 40 12 0 1 1 0 773
Dereck Rodriguez, actual: 24 21 10 2 0 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 2921
Dereck Rodriguez, projected: 24 21 5 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 681
Tyler Rogers, actual: 123 112 31 3 1 2 42 6 1 0 4 0 682
Tyler Rogers, projected: 121 111 27 4 1 1 36 6 1 0 3 0 517
Jeff Samardzija, actual: 77 71 21 3 0 7 45 4 0 0 2 0 1192
Jeff Samardzija, projected: 76 69 17 3 1 2 28 5 0 0 1 0 671
Sam Selman, actual: 82 70 13 1 1 2 22 9 1 0 2 0 548
Sam Selman, projected: 81 67 12 1 1 3 22 10 1 0 3 0 631
Drew Smyly, actual: 111 101 20 4 0 2 30 9 0 1 0 0 555
Drew Smyly, projected: 109 99 25 5 0 4 43 8 0 1 0 0 725
Andrew Suarez, actual: 42 36 9 3 0 1 15 6 0 0 0 0 729
Andrew Suarez, projected: 41 37 10 2 0 1 17 3 0 0 0 0 660
Andrew Triggs, actual: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 4104
Andrew Triggs, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 638
Tony Watson, actual: 73 68 13 1 0 3 23 3 0 1 1 0 589
Tony Watson, projected: 72 65 15 2 0 2 23 5 1 1 1 0 567
Logan Webb, actual: 246 212 61 16 1 4 91 24 0 1 7 2 943
Logan Webb, projected: 242 213 61 14 2 5 94 22 0 1 5 1 896
Giants, Actual: 2240 1968 474 97 14 69 806 210 5 19 34 4 752
Giants, Projected: 2205 1961 495 102 10 64 812 184 11 14 27 1 715
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.241 0.252
Slugging Average: 0.410 0.414
Walks (per PA): 0.094 0.083
SOs (per PA): 0.218 0.206
On-Base Average: 0.322 0.323
Power Factor: 1.700 1.640
OPS: 0.731 0.737
TPP Runs (to date): 297 256

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 41 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.