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Cardinals 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Cardinals Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.002)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nolan Arenado, actual: 612 560 149 26 2 26 257 41 0 8 3 0 755
Nolan Arenado, projected: 613 555 159 35 3 31 293 48 0 7 3 0 945
Luken Baker, actual: 99 86 18 3 0 2 27 13 0 0 0 0 564
Luken Baker, projected: 99 86 18 3 0 2 27 13 0 0 0 0 564
Tres Barrera, actual: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tres Barrera, projected: 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alec Burleson, actual: 347 315 77 20 1 8 123 23 1 2 3 3 586
Alec Burleson, projected: 348 316 75 18 1 8 118 24 1 2 3 3 570
Dylan Carlson, actual: 255 219 48 8 1 5 73 26 0 3 7 0 630
Dylan Carlson, projected: 256 225 55 13 2 6 89 23 0 3 4 0 719
Willson Contreras, actual: 495 428 113 27 0 20 200 51 1 2 13 0 917
Willson Contreras, projected: 496 430 111 24 1 20 198 49 1 3 14 0 871
Paul DeJong, actual: 306 279 65 11 0 13 115 21 0 1 5 0 619
Paul DeJong, projected: 307 276 63 13 0 13 115 23 0 2 5 0 662
Brendan Donovan, actual: 371 327 93 10 1 11 138 33 1 1 9 0 926
Brendan Donovan, projected: 372 318 90 14 1 7 127 41 1 1 10 0 927
Tommy Edman, actual: 528 479 119 25 4 13 191 35 3 4 7 0 681
Tommy Edman, projected: 529 486 129 26 4 12 198 33 1 2 7 0 738
José Fermín, actual: 61 51 12 1 0 0 13 6 2 0 2 0 440
José Fermín, projected: 61 51 12 1 0 0 13 6 2 0 2 0 440
Paul Goldschmidt, actual: 687 593 159 31 0 25 265 87 0 3 3 1 912
Paul Goldschmidt, projected: 688 588 172 37 2 31 305 90 0 5 4 1 1148
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nolan Gorman, actual: 464 406 96 17 0 27 194 53 0 2 3 0 854
Nolan Gorman, projected: 465 412 96 18 0 25 187 48 0 1 3 0 786
Iván Herrera, actual: 44 37 11 2 0 0 13 5 0 0 2 0 906
Iván Herrera, projected: 44 37 9 1 0 0 10 5 1 1 1 0 595
Andrew Knizner, actual: 241 224 54 11 0 10 95 12 1 1 3 0 610
Andrew Knizner, projected: 241 217 47 9 0 5 72 19 1 1 4 0 472
Irving López, actual: 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Irving López, projected: 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Óscar Mercado, actual: 32 31 9 3 0 0 12 1 0 0 0 0 681
Óscar Mercado, projected: 32 29 7 2 0 1 11 2 0 0 0 0 578
Taylor Motter, actual: 82 76 13 3 0 0 16 5 0 0 1 0 228
Taylor Motter, projected: 82 75 14 3 0 2 22 7 0 0 0 0 403
Lars Nootbaar, actual: 503 426 111 23 1 14 178 72 1 3 1 0 913
Lars Nootbaar, projected: 504 427 105 22 3 17 183 70 1 5 1 0 877
Tyler O'Neill, actual: 266 238 55 14 0 9 96 28 0 0 0 0 668
Tyler O'Neill, projected: 267 239 59 11 0 13 109 22 0 2 4 0 812
Richie Palacios, actual: 102 93 24 6 0 6 48 6 1 1 1 0 861
Richie Palacios, projected: 102 93 23 5 0 3 36 7 0 1 1 0 659
Juniel Querecuto, actual: 21 20 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 71
Juniel Querecuto, projected: 21 20 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 126
Michael Siani, actual: 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Michael Siani, projected: 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Adam Wainwright, actual: 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Adam Wainwright, projected: 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jordan Walker, actual: 465 420 116 19 2 16 187 37 0 2 6 0 827
Jordan Walker, projected: 466 421 116 19 2 16 187 37 0 2 6 0 823
Masyn Winn, actual: 137 122 21 2 0 2 29 10 2 3 0 0 336
Masyn Winn, projected: 137 122 21 2 0 2 29 10 2 3 0 0 336
Juan Yepez, actual: 65 60 11 1 0 2 18 4 0 0 1 0 393
Juan Yepez, projected: 65 60 14 3 0 3 25 4 0 1 0 0 668
Cardinals, Actual: 6204 5510 1376 264 12 209 2291 570 13 37 70 4 752
Cardinals, Projected: 6216 5503 1398 280 20 217 2361 582 11 43 72 4 781
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.250 0.254
Slugging Average: 0.416 0.429
Walks (per PA): 0.092 0.094
SOs (per PA): 0.214 0.214
On-Base Average: 0.326 0.331
Power Factor: 1.665 1.689
OPS: 0.742 0.760
TOP Runs (to date): 719 784

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -65 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.