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Cardinals 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Cardinals Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.009)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Harrison Bader, actual: 125 106 24 7 2 4 47 13 0 1 5 0 851
Harrison Bader, projected: 126 110 26 5 1 4 44 11 0 1 3 0 773
Dylan Carlson, actual: 119 110 22 7 1 3 40 8 0 1 0 0 431
Dylan Carlson, projected: 120 111 22 7 1 3 40 8 0 1 0 0 424
Matt Carpenter, actual: 169 140 26 6 0 4 44 23 0 0 6 0 574
Matt Carpenter, projected: 171 144 38 10 1 5 66 23 0 2 2 0 972
Austin Dean, actual: 7 4 1 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 2202
Austin Dean, projected: 7 7 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 151
Paul DeJong, actual: 174 152 38 6 0 3 53 17 0 4 1 0 673
Paul DeJong, projected: 176 157 39 9 0 8 72 13 0 2 3 0 796
Tommy Edman, actual: 227 204 51 7 1 5 75 16 0 2 5 0 630
Tommy Edman, projected: 229 211 60 10 3 6 95 13 0 1 5 0 860
Dexter Fowler, actual: 101 90 21 2 0 4 35 10 0 0 1 0 657
Dexter Fowler, projected: 102 87 23 4 1 2 36 13 1 0 1 0 844
Paul Goldschmidt, actual: 231 191 58 13 0 6 89 37 0 1 1 1 1194
Paul Goldschmidt, projected: 233 198 58 13 1 10 103 32 0 2 1 0 1161
Andrew Knizner, actual: 17 16 4 1 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 235
Andrew Knizner, projected: 17 16 4 1 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 377
Brad Miller, actual: 171 142 33 8 1 7 64 25 0 1 3 0 916
Brad Miller, projected: 173 153 37 7 2 6 64 17 1 1 1 0 756
Yadier Molina, actual: 156 145 38 2 0 4 52 6 1 1 3 0 548
Yadier Molina, projected: 157 143 40 8 0 3 58 10 1 1 1 0 677
John Nogowski, actual: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
John Nogowski, projected: 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 319
Tyler O'Neill, actual: 157 139 24 5 0 7 50 15 0 1 2 0 527
Tyler O'Neill, projected: 158 144 33 6 0 7 61 11 0 1 2 0 680
Rangel Ravelo, actual: 41 35 6 1 0 1 10 4 0 2 0 0 491
Rangel Ravelo, projected: 41 36 7 1 0 1 13 3 0 1 0 0 423
Max Schrock, actual: 17 17 3 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 402
Max Schrock, projected: 17 17 3 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 402
Lane Thomas, actual: 40 36 4 2 0 1 9 4 0 0 0 0 246
Lane Thomas, projected: 40 36 8 1 0 2 17 4 0 0 1 0 668
Matt Wieters, actual: 41 35 7 1 0 0 8 3 1 0 2 0 332
Matt Wieters, projected: 41 37 9 2 0 1 15 3 0 0 0 0 591
Justin Williams, actual: 6 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 459
Justin Williams, projected: 6 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 229
Kolten Wong, actual: 208 181 48 4 2 1 59 20 2 1 4 0 688
Kolten Wong, projected: 210 186 48 9 2 4 71 16 1 2 5 0 741
Cardinals, Actual: 2011 1752 410 73 7 51 650 205 4 16 33 1 663
Cardinals, Projected: 2028 1802 458 93 12 63 772 179 4 15 25 0 766
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.234 0.254
Slugging Average: 0.371 0.428
Walks (per PA): 0.102 0.088
SOs (per PA): 0.237 0.224
On-Base Average: 0.323 0.328
Power Factor: 1.585 1.686
OPS: 0.694 0.756
TOP Runs (to date): 240 252

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -12 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.