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Rays 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Rays Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.981)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Jonathan Aranda, actual: 103 87 20 4 1 2 32 13 0 1 2 0 710
Jonathan Aranda, projected: 101 88 19 4 1 2 30 11 0 1 2 0 594
Randy Arozarena, actual: 654 551 140 19 3 23 234 80 0 5 18 0 920
Randy Arozarena, projected: 642 561 148 30 3 23 253 61 0 4 16 0 886
Osleivis Basabe, actual: 94 87 19 5 0 1 27 6 0 0 1 0 408
Osleivis Basabe, projected: 92 85 19 5 0 1 26 6 0 0 1 0 430
Christian Bethancourt, actual: 332 315 71 16 0 11 120 13 1 3 0 0 507
Christian Bethancourt, projected: 326 311 72 15 0 8 112 12 1 1 1 0 462
Vidal Bruján, actual: 84 76 13 2 0 0 15 5 1 0 2 0 231
Vidal Bruján, projected: 82 75 12 2 0 1 17 5 0 1 1 0 274
Junior Caminero, actual: 36 34 8 1 0 1 12 2 0 0 0 0 447
Junior Caminero, projected: 35 33 8 1 0 1 12 2 0 0 0 0 475
Yandy Díaz, actual: 600 525 173 35 0 22 274 65 0 2 8 0 1221
Yandy Díaz, projected: 589 510 148 29 1 14 223 72 0 3 5 0 950
Wander Franco, actual: 491 442 124 23 6 17 210 42 0 4 3 0 881
Wander Franco, projected: 482 437 123 26 6 13 199 39 0 4 2 0 870
Tristan Gray, actual: 5 5 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 2094
Tristan Gray, projected: 5 5 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 2094
Brandon Lowe, actual: 436 377 87 15 1 21 167 50 0 3 6 0 813
Brandon Lowe, projected: 428 375 92 19 2 22 181 45 0 2 6 0 883
Josh Lowe, actual: 501 466 136 33 2 20 233 31 0 3 1 0 954
Josh Lowe, projected: 492 455 124 32 3 15 208 33 1 2 1 0 816
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Manuel Margot, actual: 336 311 82 21 1 4 117 18 0 3 4 0 629
Manuel Margot, projected: 330 302 77 15 3 6 116 23 1 2 2 0 647
Curtis Mead, actual: 92 83 21 3 1 1 29 7 0 0 2 0 582
Curtis Mead, projected: 90 81 21 3 1 1 28 7 0 0 2 0 616
Francisco Mejía, actual: 160 150 34 11 0 5 60 6 1 2 1 0 518
Francisco Mejía, projected: 157 146 35 9 1 4 58 7 0 1 2 0 565
Isaac Paredes, actual: 571 492 123 24 0 31 240 58 0 1 20 0 931
Isaac Paredes, projected: 560 487 112 23 0 26 213 59 0 2 12 0 756
René Pinto, actual: 105 103 26 3 0 6 47 2 0 0 0 0 641
René Pinto, projected: 103 100 24 3 0 4 40 2 0 0 1 0 502
Luke Raley, actual: 406 357 89 23 3 19 175 28 1 2 18 0 903
Luke Raley, projected: 398 351 82 19 2 16 153 27 1 2 18 0 765
Harold Ramírez, actual: 434 400 125 19 2 12 184 22 0 6 6 0 962
Harold Ramírez, projected: 426 397 115 21 2 9 166 19 0 4 6 0 776
Jose Siri, actual: 364 338 75 13 2 25 167 20 1 3 2 0 710
Jose Siri, projected: 357 332 74 13 2 17 144 20 0 2 3 0 633
Raimel Tapia, actual: 11 9 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1585
Raimel Tapia, projected: 11 10 3 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 618
Taylor Walls, actual: 349 303 61 12 2 8 101 44 1 0 1 0 616
Taylor Walls, projected: 343 298 56 14 1 6 91 41 1 1 1 0 492
Rays, Actual: 6164 5511 1432 282 24 230 2452 514 6 38 95 0 821
Rays, Projected: 6049 5439 1366 284 28 190 2279 492 5 32 82 0 730
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.260 0.251
Slugging Average: 0.445 0.419
Walks (per PA): 0.083 0.081
SOs (per PA): 0.230 0.231
On-Base Average: 0.331 0.321
Power Factor: 1.712 1.668
OPS: 0.776 0.740
TOP Runs (to date): 860 726

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 134 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.