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Rangers 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Rangers Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.966)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Evan Carter, actual: 75 62 19 4 1 5 40 12 0 1 0 0 1541
Evan Carter, projected: 72 60 18 4 1 5 39 12 0 1 0 0 1501
Ezequiel Durán, actual: 439 406 112 22 2 14 180 23 1 2 7 0 768
Ezequiel Durán, projected: 424 395 104 21 2 12 165 23 1 1 5 0 672
Adolis García, actual: 632 555 136 29 0 39 282 65 0 6 6 0 906
Adolis García, projected: 610 556 136 28 2 31 260 44 0 5 5 0 761
Mitch Garver, actual: 344 296 80 11 0 19 148 44 0 0 3 1 1033
Mitch Garver, projected: 332 290 73 14 1 17 140 37 0 2 3 0 895
Robbie Grossman, actual: 420 353 84 23 1 10 139 57 0 8 2 0 794
Robbie Grossman, projected: 406 346 84 18 1 8 131 52 1 3 3 0 755
Austin Hedges, actual: 25 24 5 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 219
Austin Hedges, projected: 24 22 4 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 416
Jonah Heim, actual: 501 457 118 28 0 18 200 40 0 3 1 0 734
Jonah Heim, projected: 484 442 102 23 0 17 176 38 0 3 1 0 608
Sam Huff, actual: 45 43 11 2 0 3 22 2 0 0 0 0 747
Sam Huff, projected: 43 40 11 2 0 2 19 3 0 0 0 0 794
Travis Jankowski, actual: 287 247 65 12 1 1 82 35 1 2 2 0 794
Travis Jankowski, projected: 277 243 58 9 2 2 76 30 2 0 1 0 613
Josh Jung, actual: 515 478 127 25 1 23 223 30 0 2 5 0 770
Josh Jung, projected: 497 464 118 23 2 23 213 27 0 2 4 0 726
Sandy León, actual: 44 41 6 2 0 0 8 1 1 0 1 0 97
Sandy León, projected: 42 38 8 2 0 1 12 3 1 0 0 0 488
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Nathaniel Lowe, actual: 724 623 163 38 3 17 258 93 0 3 5 0 813
Nathaniel Lowe, projected: 699 617 169 30 3 23 272 75 0 2 4 0 869
J.P. Martínez, actual: 44 40 9 1 0 1 13 2 0 2 0 0 538
J.P. Martínez, projected: 42 39 9 1 0 1 13 2 0 2 0 0 579
Brad Miller, actual: 67 56 12 4 0 1 19 10 0 1 0 0 672
Brad Miller, projected: 65 57 14 2 1 2 24 6 0 0 0 0 695
Jonathan Ornelas, actual: 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 211
Jonathan Ornelas, projected: 8 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 211
Josh Sborz, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Sborz, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corey Seager, actual: 536 477 156 42 0 33 297 49 0 6 4 0 1313
Corey Seager, projected: 518 462 135 30 2 23 236 48 0 3 4 0 1000
Marcus Semien, actual: 753 670 185 40 4 29 320 72 0 5 5 1 962
Marcus Semien, projected: 727 655 169 35 4 27 293 65 1 4 2 0 801
Josh H. Smith, actual: 232 195 36 8 1 6 64 25 2 1 9 0 559
Josh H. Smith, projected: 224 188 36 6 0 4 54 24 2 2 7 0 517
Leody Taveras, actual: 554 511 136 31 3 14 215 35 3 4 1 0 724
Leody Taveras, projected: 535 493 120 25 4 11 187 35 3 3 2 0 611
Bubba Thompson, actual: 60 53 9 4 1 0 15 4 1 1 1 0 317
Bubba Thompson, projected: 58 54 13 2 0 0 16 3 1 0 1 0 451
Rangers, Actual: 6306 5595 1470 326 18 233 2531 599 10 47 53 2 855
Rangers, Projected: 6088 5469 1382 276 25 210 2334 528 12 33 43 0 748
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.263 0.253
Slugging Average: 0.452 0.427
Walks (per PA): 0.095 0.087
SOs (per PA): 0.225 0.240
On-Base Average: 0.337 0.322
Power Factor: 1.722 1.689
OPS: 0.790 0.748
TOP Runs (to date): 881 747

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 134 greater than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.