Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


Blue Jays 2020 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2020 Blue Jays Projected Batting

Through games of Tuesday, 29 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.994)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Anthony Alford, actual: 16 16 3 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 514
Anthony Alford, projected: 16 15 3 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 527
Bo Bichette, actual: 128 123 37 9 1 5 63 5 0 0 0 0 889
Bo Bichette, projected: 127 119 37 10 0 6 66 7 0 0 0 0 1004
Cavan Biggio, actual: 265 220 55 16 0 8 95 41 0 0 3 1 978
Cavan Biggio, projected: 264 218 52 13 1 9 94 42 0 1 2 1 976
Jonathan Davis, actual: 34 27 7 2 0 1 12 3 0 1 2 1 1083
Jonathan Davis, projected: 34 29 6 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 2 0 527
Brandon Drury, actual: 49 46 7 1 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 0 167
Brandon Drury, projected: 49 45 11 3 0 1 19 3 0 0 0 0 558
Santiago Espinal, actual: 66 60 16 4 0 0 20 4 1 1 0 0 586
Santiago Espinal, projected: 66 60 16 4 0 0 20 4 1 1 0 0 586
Derek Fisher, actual: 39 31 7 2 1 1 14 7 0 1 0 0 935
Derek Fisher, projected: 39 34 7 1 0 1 13 4 0 0 0 0 494
Randal Grichuk, actual: 231 216 59 9 0 12 104 13 0 2 0 0 799
Randal Grichuk, projected: 230 214 53 13 2 11 103 13 0 1 2 0 717
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., actual: 243 221 58 13 2 9 102 20 0 0 2 0 789
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., projected: 242 219 59 12 1 8 97 21 0 1 1 0 783
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., actual: 224 208 64 14 0 11 111 14 0 2 0 0 1006
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., projected: 223 207 59 11 1 11 105 12 1 2 2 0 901
Teoscar Hernandez, actual: 207 190 55 7 0 16 110 14 0 1 1 1 1085
Teoscar Hernandez, projected: 206 187 46 10 1 11 92 17 0 1 1 0 784
Danny Jansen, actual: 147 120 22 3 0 6 43 21 3 1 2 0 678
Danny Jansen, projected: 146 128 27 5 0 5 47 14 1 1 2 0 610
Caleb Joseph, actual: 9 8 1 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 704
Caleb Joseph, projected: 9 8 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 275
Alejandro Kirk, actual: 25 24 9 2 0 1 14 1 0 0 0 0 1369
Alejandro Kirk, projected: 25 24 9 2 0 1 14 1 0 0 0 0 1369
Reese McGuire, actual: 45 41 3 0 0 1 6 0 4 0 0 0 110
Reese McGuire, projected: 45 41 10 2 0 2 18 2 1 0 0 0 614
Billy McKinney, actual: 3 3 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5825
Billy McKinney, projected: 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Joe Panik, actual: 141 120 27 6 0 1 36 20 0 0 1 0 554
Joe Panik, projected: 140 125 34 6 1 2 48 12 1 1 1 0 715
Travis Shaw, actual: 180 163 39 10 0 6 67 16 0 1 0 0 644
Travis Shaw, projected: 179 158 38 9 0 8 71 19 0 1 1 0 769
Rowdy Tellez, actual: 127 113 32 5 0 8 61 11 0 2 1 0 1062
Rowdy Tellez, projected: 126 115 29 7 0 7 56 9 0 1 2 0 796
Jonathan Villar, actual: 79 69 13 1 0 0 14 9 0 1 0 0 468
Jonathan Villar, projected: 79 70 18 3 0 2 28 7 1 0 0 0 714
Daniel Vogelbach, actual: 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 51
Daniel Vogelbach, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 763
Blue Jays, Actual: 2263 2023 516 104 4 88 892 203 8 14 12 3 795
Blue Jays, Projected: 2253 2023 518 112 7 87 911 191 6 11 16 1 777
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.255 0.256
Slugging Average: 0.441 0.450
Walks (per PA): 0.090 0.085
SOs (per PA): 0.224 0.237
On-Base Average: 0.325 0.324
Power Factor: 1.729 1.759
OPS: 0.766 0.774
TOP Runs (to date): 302 286

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 16 greater than Projected Runs.





  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2020 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Wednesday, 30 September 2020, at 1:20 pm Pacific Time.