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Blue Jays 2023 Projected Batting Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Blue Jays Projected Batting

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each player and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date Plate Appearances to his career Plate Appearances, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of Plate Appearances. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career PAs and 250 PAs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of Plate Appearances that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more PAs the man or team will have in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a team with an abysmal .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they send to the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, that team, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a team with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half its batters make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, they would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his PAs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—PAs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the team’s total Plate Appearances; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team PA total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team PAs to actual PAs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s batting, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 1.005)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TOP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team pitching numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Brandon Belt, actual: 404 339 86 23 0 19 166 61 0 2 2 0 1006
Brandon Belt, projected: 406 350 91 21 3 14 161 50 0 2 4 0 898
Bo Bichette, actual: 601 571 175 30 3 20 271 27 0 1 2 0 863
Bo Bichette, projected: 604 566 169 34 2 23 276 33 0 2 3 0 892
Cavan Biggio, actual: 338 289 68 12 0 9 107 40 0 2 7 0 751
Cavan Biggio, projected: 340 286 65 15 1 10 111 47 0 2 4 1 798
Matt Chapman, actual: 581 509 122 39 2 17 216 62 0 2 8 0 764
Matt Chapman, projected: 584 511 123 31 3 25 236 62 0 4 7 0 813
Ernie Clement, actual: 52 50 19 1 1 1 25 1 0 1 0 0 1322
Ernie Clement, projected: 52 48 11 1 0 1 14 3 1 0 1 0 462
Paul DeJong, actual: 44 44 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 5
Paul DeJong, projected: 44 40 9 2 0 2 17 3 0 0 1 0 635
Cam Eden, actual: 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 113
Cam Eden, projected: 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 113
Santiago Espinal, actual: 254 230 57 14 0 2 77 18 2 1 3 0 533
Santiago Espinal, projected: 255 232 63 14 0 3 85 19 1 1 1 0 655
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., actual: 682 602 159 30 0 26 267 67 0 4 9 0 809
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., projected: 686 610 170 32 1 31 299 67 0 3 6 0 908
Tyler Heineman, actual: 37 29 8 1 1 0 11 7 0 0 1 0 1139
Tyler Heineman, projected: 37 33 7 1 0 0 9 3 1 0 1 0 347
Spencer Horwitz, actual: 44 39 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 1 0 698
Spencer Horwitz, projected: 44 39 10 2 0 1 15 4 0 0 1 0 698
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP
Danny Jansen, actual: 301 268 61 15 0 17 127 23 0 0 10 0 773
Danny Jansen, projected: 303 266 60 13 0 14 116 28 1 2 6 0 716
Kevin Kiermaier, actual: 408 370 98 21 6 8 155 29 1 4 4 0 748
Kevin Kiermaier, projected: 410 373 93 18 6 10 153 29 2 2 4 0 689
Alejandro Kirk, actual: 422 372 93 16 0 8 133 42 0 2 6 0 607
Alejandro Kirk, projected: 424 372 99 16 0 11 149 45 0 3 5 0 782
Nathan Lukes, actual: 31 26 5 1 1 0 8 4 0 1 0 0 503
Nathan Lukes, projected: 31 26 5 1 1 0 8 4 0 1 0 0 503
Jordan Luplow, actual: 17 14 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 422
Jordan Luplow, projected: 17 15 3 1 0 1 6 2 0 0 0 0 720
Mason McCoy, actual: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mason McCoy, projected: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Whit Merrifield, actual: 592 547 149 27 0 11 209 36 0 6 3 0 668
Whit Merrifield, projected: 595 548 155 32 3 12 230 37 1 6 4 0 787
Davis Schneider, actual: 141 116 32 12 1 8 70 21 0 0 4 0 1311
Davis Schneider, projected: 142 117 32 12 1 8 70 21 0 0 4 0 1289
George Springer, actual: 683 613 158 25 1 21 248 60 0 3 5 2 730
George Springer, projected: 687 599 160 27 3 32 288 73 0 4 9 2 954
Daulton Varsho, actual: 581 527 117 23 3 20 206 45 1 3 4 1 614
Daulton Varsho, projected: 584 526 121 25 4 22 219 48 1 3 5 1 678
Blue Jays, Actual: 6220 5562 1424 292 19 188 2318 550 4 32 69 3 755
Blue Jays, Projected: 6252 5564 1447 298 28 220 2463 578 8 35 66 4 810
Player (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TOP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.256 0.260
Slugging Average: 0.417 0.443
Walks (per PA): 0.088 0.092
SOs (per PA): 0.209 0.206
On-Base Average: 0.329 0.335
Power Factor: 1.628 1.702
OPS: 0.746 0.778
TOP Runs (to date): 746 815

Runs differential:
Actual Runs -69 less than Projected Runs.





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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.