Skip to main content 

Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called “panorama” screen view).


The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

(click for menu)
(click for menu)
You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   ( = this page)
(Click on any image above to see it at full size.)

You are here:  Home  »  dailies  »  teams  »  individual  »  projected  »   ( = this page)
You can get a site directory by clicking on the “hamburger” icon () in the upper right of this page.
Or you can search this site with Google (standard Google-search rules apply).
(Be aware that “sponsored” links to other sites will appear atop the actual results.)

Search term(s):



Nationals 2023 Projected Pitching Performance


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

2023 Nationals Projected Pitching

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Explanation of the Table

The Table below shows two lines for each pitcher and for the team as a whole: Actual and Projected. The Actual lines are just what it says: the actual stats for this season to date; the Projected lines want a little explanation.

The projecting has two steps. The first is simple: for each man, we calculate the ratio of his current-season-to-date BFPs (Batters Faced Pitcher, the equivalent of Plate Appearances for batters) to his career BFPs, then multiply all his career stats by that ratio to get what one might call his “raw” career-performance data pro-rated to his current-year number of BFPs. So, as a hypothetical example, a man with 5,000 career BFPs and 250 BFPs this season would have a ratio of 250/5000, or .050; so, if he had yielded, say, 1215 career Hits, his raw projected Hits number for this season would be 1215 x .05, or 61 (if the calculated number is fractional, as with 60.75, we round it off to the nearest whole number).

That much is simple and, we hope, clear. The second adjustment takes a little explaining. It derives from the fact that—for a team or for an individual man—the number of BFPs that will be had for a given number of Outs made (which is to say “innings played”) depends exactly on the on-base percentage: the higher the on-base percentage, the more BFPs the man or team will see in any given number of innings.

To clarify: imagine a staff with a great .250 on-base percentage; that number means that, on average, one man in four that they see at the plate will get on safely. The converse of that is that three men in four will make out. (For simplicity’s sake in this elementary example, we ignore outs made on the bases.) So, in an average inning, the batters, to make the three outs that constitute an inning, will send 4 men to the plate. If we next imagine a staff with an equally absurd .500 on-base percentage, only half the batters it faces make an out: thus, to make the three outs that define an inning, the batters would have—again, on average—to send 6 men to the plate. So (as should be intuitively obvious anyway), for a given number of innings, a higher OBP means more PAs.

The consequence of that is that each man’s “raw”stat projections, which were based on his BFPs for this season, are slightly inaccurate, because his—and the team’s—BFPs would be different (perhaps higher, perhaps lower) from what they are if all the men were performing at their career rates. To correct for that, we calculate each man’s career "outs rate" (all Outs made per plate appearance, which does include outs made behind him on the bases) and multiply it by his percentage of the staff’s total BFPs; we then sum up those outs rates to get a projected team Outs rate, and from that—holding Outs made (which, again, is just innings played) constant—we can reckon the projected team BFP total. We can then adjust each projected stat line by the ratio of expected team BFPs to actual BFPs (which normally yields a number fairly close to, but not equalling,1.0), giving us the true projected stats for each man and for the team.

(For this season for this team’s pitching, the adjustment factor, rounded to three decimal places—the actual calculations use many more decimals— is 0.988)

Incidentally, that last adjustment is the reason that even rookies, whose whole “career” is just the current season, can have “adjusted” lines that differ slightly from their actual data lines, and why the TPP numbers here may differ slightly from those on other pages here.

You can see the overall “win-capability” of the team (its wins projected from these team numbers and the corresponding team batting numbers) at our “Projected Team-Performances” page.

The Table

Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Cory Abbott, actual: 183 157 48 4 1 9 81 19 0 3 4 0 1198
Cory Abbott, projected: 181 154 42 8 0 11 82 21 0 2 3 0 1133
Joan Adon, actual: 240 211 60 18 0 8 102 24 1 1 3 0 995
Joan Adon, projected: 237 204 59 15 2 7 98 27 1 1 4 0 1057
Anthony Banda, actual: 35 28 9 0 0 1 12 5 0 1 1 0 1327
Anthony Banda, projected: 35 30 9 2 0 1 15 3 0 0 1 0 941
Patrick Corbin, actual: 790 717 210 34 1 33 345 57 3 9 4 0 955
Patrick Corbin, projected: 780 710 191 38 4 25 313 55 5 5 5 0 771
Carl Edwards Jr., actual: 142 124 31 8 1 1 44 17 0 0 1 0 691
Carl Edwards Jr., projected: 140 121 23 4 0 3 37 18 0 1 1 0 511
Paolo Espino, actual: 28 24 14 2 0 1 19 3 0 1 0 0 4674
Paolo Espino, projected: 28 26 7 1 0 1 13 2 0 0 0 0 752
José Ferrer, actual: 142 128 37 5 0 4 54 13 0 0 1 0 740
José Ferrer, projected: 140 126 37 5 0 4 53 13 0 0 1 0 766
Kyle Finnegan, actual: 288 260 66 11 0 11 110 24 2 1 1 0 712
Kyle Finnegan, projected: 284 253 61 10 1 9 100 28 1 1 1 0 685
Rico Garcia, actual: 16 15 6 0 0 1 9 1 0 0 0 0 1682
Rico Garcia, projected: 16 14 5 1 0 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 1459
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Robert Garcia, actual: 124 109 25 2 0 3 36 11 2 1 0 1 480
Robert Garcia, projected: 122 107 25 2 0 3 36 12 2 1 0 1 504
MacKenzie Gore, actual: 582 519 134 19 2 27 238 57 1 4 1 0 814
MacKenzie Gore, projected: 575 506 129 18 3 22 218 61 1 4 3 0 792
Josiah Gray, actual: 698 605 152 29 1 22 249 80 0 4 9 0 803
Josiah Gray, projected: 689 600 146 25 3 33 276 75 2 5 8 0 853
Hobie Harris, actual: 91 77 21 3 1 2 32 13 0 0 1 0 991
Hobie Harris, projected: 90 76 21 3 1 2 32 13 0 0 1 0 1020
Hunter Harvey, actual: 235 217 44 7 0 7 72 13 0 3 2 0 456
Hunter Harvey, projected: 232 211 45 8 2 6 74 16 0 4 1 0 535
Jake Irvin, actual: 530 462 118 17 2 20 199 54 0 6 8 0 830
Jake Irvin, projected: 524 456 117 17 2 20 197 53 0 6 8 0 837
Chad Kuhl, actual: 187 150 47 12 1 8 85 28 1 5 3 0 1499
Chad Kuhl, projected: 185 160 43 10 1 6 74 19 1 2 2 0 870
Joe LaSorsa, actual: 125 114 29 4 0 3 42 6 0 0 5 0 704
Joe LaSorsa, projected: 123 111 27 4 0 3 39 8 0 0 5 0 704
Andrés Machado, actual: 207 188 53 9 0 12 98 13 3 2 1 0 866
Andrés Machado, projected: 204 180 47 10 1 8 82 18 1 3 3 0 889
Tanner Rainey, actual: 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 763
Tanner Rainey, projected: 5 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 763
Erasmo Ramírez, actual: 126 112 36 6 0 4 54 6 0 5 3 0 1199
Erasmo Ramírez, projected: 124 113 29 5 0 5 49 8 1 1 2 0 722
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP
Jackson Rutledge, actual: 88 79 24 5 0 4 41 6 0 1 2 0 995
Jackson Rutledge, projected: 87 78 24 5 0 4 40 6 0 1 2 0 1023
Lane Thomas, actual: 6 6 3 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 3306
Lane Thomas, projected: 6 6 3 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 3306
Mason Thompson, actual: 240 211 62 10 2 4 88 22 1 2 4 0 876
Mason Thompson, projected: 237 207 58 9 2 5 85 24 2 1 3 0 850
Ildemaro Vargas, actual: 10 8 2 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 1387
Ildemaro Vargas, projected: 10 8 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 1 0 1152
Thaddeus Ward, actual: 160 129 29 4 0 7 54 28 0 1 2 0 874
Thaddeus Ward, projected: 158 127 29 4 0 7 53 28 0 1 2 0 900
Jordan Weems, actual: 232 196 38 10 1 9 77 28 2 3 3 0 652
Jordan Weems, projected: 229 199 42 9 2 9 82 25 1 2 2 0 683
Trevor Williams, actual: 659 593 178 32 2 34 316 53 1 7 5 0 1079
Trevor Williams, projected: 651 585 159 33 3 23 267 50 5 5 6 0 815
Amos Willingham, actual: 116 104 35 6 0 8 65 9 0 2 1 0 1362
Amos Willingham, projected: 115 103 35 6 0 8 64 9 0 2 1 0 1390
Nationals, Actual: 6285 5547 1512 258 15 245 2535 592 17 62 66 1 893
Nationals, Projected: 6207 5475 1416 253 27 228 2401 596 23 48 66 1 813
Pitcher (alphabetical by last name) PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB SH SF HBP CI TPP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: 0.273 0.259
Slugging Average: 0.457 0.439
Walks (per PA): 0.094 0.096
SOs (per PA): 0.195 0.210
On-Base Average: 0.346 0.336
Power Factor: 1.677 1.696
OPS: 0.803 0.775
TPP Runs (to date): 845 806

Runs differential:
Actual Runs 39 greater than Projected Runs.





  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2024 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the WHATWG (Web Hypertext Application Technology Working Group) HyperText Markup Language (HTML5) Protocol versionless “Living Standard” and the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Cascading Style Sheets (CSS3) Protocol v3  — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.