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2021 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Friday, 9 April 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

(The “Projected Seasonal Wins” number is based on a 162-game season; obviously, for 2020 that is not the case, but we didn’t want to proportion it to 60 games because not all teams will necessarily end up playing a full 60 games in their “season”.)
All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Reds.857139
Astros.750122
Dodgers.750122
Twins.714116
Red Sox.714116
Indians.667108
Angels.625101
Padres.625101
White Sox.625101
Giants.57193
Phillies.57193
Yankees.57193
Nationals.50081
Royals.50081
Mets.50081
Cardinals.42969
Marlins.42969
Cubs.42969
Orioles.42969
Brewers.42969
Braves.42969
Rockies.37561
Blue Jays.37561
Rangers.28646
Rays.28646
Mariners.28646
Pirates.28646
Tigers.28646
Diamondbacks.25041
Athletics.22236


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies .571 Reds .857 Dodgers .750 Red Sox .714 Twins .714 Astros .750
Nationals .500 Cardinals .429 Padres .625 Yankees .571 Indians .667 Angels .625
Mets .500 Brewers .429 Giants .571 Orioles .429 White Sox .625 Mariners .286
Marlins .429 Cubs .429 Rockies .375 Blue Jays .375 Royals .500 Rangers .286
Braves .429 Pirates .286 Diamondbacks .250 Rays .286 Tigers .286 Athletics .222


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Phillies .714 Reds .857 Dodgers .750 Orioles .571 Twins .714 Astros .750
Mets .500 Cardinals .714 Padres .625 Red Sox .571 Royals .500 Angels .750
Braves .429 Cubs .571 Giants .571 Rays .429 Indians .500 Mariners .429
Nationals .250 Brewers .429 Rockies .375 Yankees .429 White Sox .500 Rangers .429
Marlins .143 Pirates .143 Diamondbacks .250 Blue Jays .375 Tigers .429 Athletics .222

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

(We pro-rated to 162 even though in 2020 the schedule is much shorter; that is because teams will almost surely not end their seasons having all played the same numbers of games. Also note that the “Seasonal Errors” sizes look large right now even though they flow from rather small actual differences; such is usually the case with small games-played sample sizes.)

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks831304849220200
Braves72325242234+1300
Orioles72227292943-13-1-23
Red Sox7333824304405+1+23
Cubs7232325224403-1-23
White Sox84348313645+15+1+20
Reds755632631660600
Indians62221171734+14+1+27
Rockies83545434234+1300
Tigers72324343832-12-1-23
Astros851532526660600
Royals631332931330300
Angels84147343865-15-1-20
Dodgers853452729660600
Marlins72221283212+13+2+46
Brewers719202325330300
Twins74446222256+1500
Mets421161819220200
Yankees73030232534+14+1+23
Athletics92625626121-1200
Phillies72927272454-14-1-23
Pirates7241943461102+1+23
Padres83530231956+1500
Mariners72429444332-12-1-23
Giants726232123440400
Cardinals72736303154-13-2-46
Rays72733384732-12-1-23
Rangers7273239423302-1-23
Blue Jays827263433330300
Nationals41312131512+12+1+41


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP3.6 runs11.29%-1.33 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP2.5 runs8.26%-1.43 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP3.05 runs9.78%-1.38 runs
Games Won from R/OR0.57 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP0.6 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season (for a 162-game season). Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 13.34%.

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 10 April 2021, at 6:20 am Pacific Time.