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2020 Major-League Team-Performance Results


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 28 September 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

“Manifested ability” means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean “how good they really are”, which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or tab.)

(The “Projected Seasonal Wins” number is based on a 162-game season; obviously, for 2020 that is not the case, but we didn’t want to proportion it to 60 games because not all teams will necessarily end up playing a full 60 games in their “season”.)
All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Dodgers.717116
Padres.633103
White Sox.60097
Braves.60097
Rays.58394
Yankees.58394
Twins.58394
Indians.55089
Cubs.55089
Giants.53386
Reds.53386
Athletics.53386
Mets.51784
Angels.51784
Phillies.50081
Astros.50081
Brewers.50081
Cardinals.50081
Blue Jays.48378
Orioles.48378
Royals.46776
Nationals.43370
Marlins.41768
Diamondbacks.41768
Red Sox.40065
Mariners.40065
Rockies.38362
Rangers.36759
Tigers.36259
Pirates.35057


Divisional Standings

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a “prediction” of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a “prediction” only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .600 Cubs .550 Dodgers .717 Rays .583 White Sox .600 Athletics .533
Mets .517 Reds .533 Padres .633 Yankees .583 Twins .583 Angels .517
Phillies .500 Cardinals .500 Giants .533 Orioles .483 Indians .550 Astros .500
Nationals .433 Brewers .500 Diamondbacks .417 Blue Jays .483 Royals .467 Mariners .400
Marlins .417 Pirates .350 Rockies .383 Red Sox .400 Tigers .362 Rangers .367


Actual Standings

This Table merely sorts actual results by Division.


Actual (not projected) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Braves .583 Cubs .567 Dodgers .717 Rays .667 Twins .600 Athletics .600
Marlins .517 Reds .517 Padres .617 Yankees .550 White Sox .583 Astros .483
Phillies .467 Cardinals .517 Giants .483 Blue Jays .533 Indians .583 Mariners .450
Nationals .433 Brewers .483 Rockies .433 Orioles .417 Royals .433 Angels .433
Mets .433 Pirates .317 Diamondbacks .417 Red Sox .400 Tigers .397 Rangers .367

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated (“TOP/TPP”) runs scored and allowed. The “error” columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—“expectation” meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—“Seasonal”—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current “luck rate” of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team’s detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab.

(We pro-rated to 162 even though in 2020 the schedule is much shorter; that is because teams will almost surely not end their seasons having all played the same numbers of games. Also note that the “Seasonal Errors” sizes look large right now even though they flow from rather small actual differences; such is usually the case with small games-played sample sizes.)

Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Diamondbacks602552693102952527+22500
Braves603423482762883535036+1+3
Orioles602732742832942528+329+4+11
Red Sox602972923673512425+12400
Cubs602552652322403433-133-1-3
White Sox603043062422463536+136+1+3
Reds602422432272433130-132+1+3
Indians602372482112093535033-2-5
Rockies602622753353532623-323-3-8
Tigers582262493053182323021-2-6
Astros602582792562752930+130+1+3
Royals602522482742722627+128+2+5
Angels602932942843212628+231+5+14
Dodgers60333349203213434304300
Marlins602522632983043126-525-6-16
Brewers602382472392642928-130+1+3
Twins602622692182153636035-1-3
Mets603122862973082628+231+5+14
Yankees603023152532703334+135+2+5
Athletics602542742362323635-132-4-11
Phillies602993063023112830+230+2+5
Pirates602012192762981922+321+2+5
Padres603013252282413738+138+1+3
Mariners602322542863032725-224-3-8
Giants602962992752972930+132+3+8
Cardinals582182402142293030029-1-3
Rays602872892392294036-435-5-14
Rangers602142242923122221-12200
Blue Jays602933023023123229-329-3-8
Nationals602852933293012629+32600


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.3 runs4.16%-8.97 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP13.83 runs4.87%-8.5 runs
All Runs, from TOP/TPP12.57 runs4.52%-8.74 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.53 wins---0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.07 wins---0 wins

Expected deviation (“error”) sizes go down as the season goes on, and can look pretty wild in the early weeks and even months. Errors will be modest by mid-season and small by late season (for a 162-game season). Right now, the expected average error for “All Runs” is 4.48%.

(The “expected error” is calculated as described on our “Formula Proof” page.)




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 29 September 2020, at 6:26 am Pacific Time.