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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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ARI "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bracho, Silvino 2017: 26 6 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 8 1 0 28
Bracho, Silvino proj: 25 7 1 0 2 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 28
Bradley, Archie 2017: 115 21 2 0 3 7 0 1 1 41 2 0 124
Bradley, Archie proj: 109 28 6 1 3 13 1 1 1 28 2 1 125
Chafin, Andrew 2017: 87 17 4 0 1 8 0 1 0 33 0 1 96
Chafin, Andrew proj: 84 19 5 0 1 10 0 1 1 22 0 0 96
Corbin, Patrick 2017: 327 98 20 3 15 23 3 0 1 67 2 1 354
Corbin, Patrick proj: 323 87 18 3 11 24 2 2 3 70 2 2 354
De La Rosa, Jorge 2017: 92 21 6 0 3 13 0 1 1 22 3 0 107
De La Rosa, Jorge proj: 93 24 6 0 3 11 1 1 1 20 2 1 107
Delgado, Randall 2017: 196 49 11 2 6 9 2 4 0 49 5 2 211
Delgado, Randall proj: 188 47 11 1 6 18 2 2 1 43 2 1 211
Godley, Zack 2017: 174 36 7 0 3 16 1 3 1 44 0 0 195
Godley, Zack proj: 172 43 7 1 6 17 1 3 2 40 1 0 195
Greinke, Zack 2017: 364 83 14 2 14 19 3 1 0 111 3 3 387
Greinke, Zack proj: 358 89 18 2 9 23 2 3 2 85 3 3 388
Hoover, J.J. 2017: 97 29 6 1 3 17 0 0 1 36 1 1 115
Hoover, J.J. proj: 99 22 5 1 4 13 1 1 1 28 0 0 115
McFarland, T.J. 2017: 80 17 3 0 0 5 1 1 1 16 1 0 88
McFarland, T.J. proj: 80 23 5 0 1 7 0 1 1 13 1 0 89
Miller, Shelby 2017: 87 20 7 0 1 12 0 0 0 20 1 0 99
Miller, Shelby proj: 88 22 4 0 2 9 0 1 1 19 2 1 99
Ray, Robbie 2017: 310 61 10 1 10 39 1 4 2 114 4 3 356
Ray, Robbie proj: 315 81 17 3 9 33 2 3 3 92 5 2 356
Rodney, Fernando 2017: 93 18 3 1 2 13 1 1 1 31 5 2 109
Rodney, Fernando proj: 93 22 4 0 2 12 1 1 2 25 3 1 109
Shipley, Braden 2017: 37 12 3 0 1 9 2 0 0 5 1 0 48
Shipley, Braden proj: 42 12 3 0 2 5 1 0 0 7 1 0 48
Walker, Taijuan 2017: 245 61 20 2 5 23 1 1 2 60 4 0 272
Walker, Taijuan proj: 247 61 13 1 9 19 2 1 3 59 4 1 272
Wilhelmsen, Tom 2017: 99 25 3 1 4 12 1 0 1 17 2 0 113
Wilhelmsen, Tom proj: 99 22 4 1 2 12 1 1 1 24 3 0 114
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2429 574 119 13 74 227 16 18 12 674 35 13 2702
PROJECTED: 2415 609 127 14 72 228 17 22 24 581 31 13 2706
difference: +14 -35 -8 -1 +2 -1 -1 -4 -12 +93 +4 0 -4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .236 .252
Slugging Average: .387 .406
Walks (per PA): .084 .084
SOs (per PA): .249 .215
On-Base Average: .301 .318
Power Factor: 1.64 1.61
OPS: .688 .724
TPP Runs (to date): 284 310

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 26 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.