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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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ARI "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Andriese, Matt 2019: 276 72 17 2 8 27 3 1 3 79 7 2 310
Andriese, Matt proj: 284 75 16 1 11 21 2 1 2 66 6 1 310
Avila, Alex 2019: 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 8
Avila, Alex proj: 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 8
Bradley, Archie 2019: 272 67 15 2 5 36 2 2 5 87 3 1 317
Bradley, Archie proj: 280 70 15 2 7 31 2 1 3 76 5 1 317
Chafin, Andrew 2019: 202 52 4 0 6 18 0 3 2 68 1 1 225
Chafin, Andrew proj: 197 47 9 0 3 23 1 2 2 56 2 1 225
Clarke, Taylor 2019: 327 86 17 4 23 30 5 1 6 68 2 1 369
Clarke, Taylor proj: 327 86 17 4 23 30 5 1 6 68 2 1 369
Crichton, Stefan 2019: 113 23 3 0 3 8 0 0 2 33 0 0 123
Crichton, Stefan proj: 113 33 5 1 3 8 1 0 1 27 0 1 123
Duplantier, Jon 2019: 138 39 9 0 2 18 1 1 5 34 1 2 163
Duplantier, Jon proj: 138 39 9 0 2 18 1 1 5 34 1 2 163
Gallen, Zac 2019: 162 37 10 1 5 18 1 0 2 53 4 3 183
Gallen, Zac proj: 161 34 9 1 4 20 1 0 2 53 3 3 184
Ginkel, Kevin 2019: 87 15 3 0 2 9 0 0 0 28 1 0 96
Ginkel, Kevin proj: 87 15 3 0 2 9 0 0 0 28 1 0 96
Godley, Zack 2019: 294 81 16 3 12 35 2 3 4 58 0 1 338
Godley, Zack proj: 296 75 15 2 9 32 2 4 4 75 2 1 338
Greinke, Zack 2019: 531 117 26 2 15 21 3 4 3 135 1 4 562
Greinke, Zack proj: 521 128 26 3 14 32 2 4 3 126 4 4 562
Hirano, Yoshihisa 2019: 205 51 9 0 7 22 2 1 3 61 0 1 233
Hirano, Yoshihisa proj: 207 47 8 1 6 21 1 1 2 56 1 0 232
Holland, Greg 2019: 126 25 6 0 5 24 2 0 0 41 2 0 152
Holland, Greg proj: 133 27 5 1 2 17 1 1 0 47 1 1 152
Joseph, Caleb 2019: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Joseph, Caleb proj: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Kelly, Merrill 2019: 711 184 38 4 29 57 5 2 2 158 3 2 777
Kelly, Merrill proj: 711 184 38 4 29 57 5 2 2 158 3 2 777
Koch, Matt 2019: 87 29 8 0 8 4 0 0 5 9 1 0 96
Koch, Matt proj: 87 23 5 0 5 6 0 1 2 13 0 0 96
Leake, Mike 2019: 242 74 8 2 15 8 2 1 6 27 1 2 259
Leake, Mike proj: 240 65 13 1 8 14 2 2 2 41 2 1 260
Lopez, Yoan 2019: 224 52 11 2 11 17 4 1 0 42 3 1 246
Lopez, Yoan proj: 225 52 11 3 11 16 4 2 0 46 4 1 247
McFarland, T.J. 2019: 225 71 13 2 6 20 2 2 1 35 2 5 250
McFarland, T.J. proj: 226 66 13 1 4 19 1 2 1 35 2 1 249
Payamps, Joel 2019: 13 4 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 3 1 0 17
Payamps, Joel proj: 13 4 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 3 1 0 17
Ray, Robbie 2019: 643 150 33 5 30 84 4 11 5 235 10 3 747
Ray, Robbie proj: 653 157 31 4 24 78 4 6 6 214 11 5 747
Ryan Murphy, John 2019: 19 10 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Ryan Murphy, John proj: 19 10 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
Scott, Robby 2019: 29 8 3 0 1 7 0 1 0 9 1 0 37
Scott, Robby proj: 31 7 1 0 2 4 0 0 1 8 0 0 36
Sherfy, Jimmie 2019: 76 23 4 0 4 5 0 1 1 22 1 1 83
Sherfy, Jimmie proj: 73 16 3 0 2 7 1 0 1 21 2 1 82
Walker, Taijuan 2019: 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Walker, Taijuan proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Weaver, Luke 2019: 242 55 16 0 6 14 1 0 3 69 0 0 260
Weaver, Luke proj: 235 63 12 1 8 20 1 2 2 62 0 1 260
Young, Alex 2019: 315 72 16 0 14 27 0 3 4 71 2 1 349
Young, Alex proj: 315 72 16 0 14 27 0 3 4 71 2 1 349
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5574 1400 289 29 220 516 39 39 62 1427 47 31 6230
PROJECTED: 5587 1398 283 30 196 517 37 37 51 1386 55 29 6229
difference: -13 +2 +6 -1 +24 -1 +2 +2 +11 +41 -8 +2 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .250
Slugging Average: .432 .417
Walks (per PA): .083 .083
SOs (per PA): .229 .222
On-Base Average: .317 .316
Power Factor: 1.72 1.67
OPS: .749 .732
TPP Runs (to date): 750 724

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 26 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.