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ARI "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Banda, Anthony 2017: 102 26 9 3 1 10 0 0 3 25 0 0 115
Banda, Anthony proj: 102 26 9 3 1 10 0 0 3 25 0 0 115
Barrett, Jake 2017: 104 27 2 1 7 15 2 0 0 26 1 0 121
Barrett, Jake proj: 104 24 5 1 4 14 2 0 1 27 1 1 121
Bracho, Silvino 2017: 80 18 2 0 5 7 0 0 0 25 1 0 87
Bracho, Silvino proj: 78 20 4 0 5 7 0 0 1 20 0 0 86
Bradley, Archie 2017: 266 55 9 2 4 21 1 1 1 79 4 1 290
Bradley, Archie proj: 255 65 15 2 6 29 2 1 2 65 5 2 289
Chafin, Andrew 2017: 195 48 8 1 5 21 1 2 2 61 1 1 221
Chafin, Andrew proj: 193 45 10 0 3 23 1 3 2 51 1 0 222
Corbin, Patrick 2017: 753 208 47 7 26 61 5 4 3 178 6 5 826
Corbin, Patrick proj: 752 202 42 6 24 58 4 6 6 168 4 4 826
De La Rosa, Jorge 2017: 192 46 9 0 7 21 1 2 3 45 5 0 219
De La Rosa, Jorge proj: 191 50 11 1 6 23 2 2 2 42 4 1 220
De La Rosa, Rubby 2017: 30 7 1 1 2 4 0 0 0 12 0 0 34
De La Rosa, Rubby proj: 30 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 33
Delgado, Randall 2017: 239 60 15 2 6 14 2 4 0 60 6 2 259
Delgado, Randall proj: 231 58 13 1 7 23 2 2 1 53 2 1 259
Descalso, Daniel 2017: 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Descalso, Daniel proj: 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Godley, Zack 2017: 561 124 33 1 15 53 2 6 5 165 1 0 627
Godley, Zack proj: 557 135 29 3 18 54 2 8 7 146 2 0 628
Greinke, Zack 2017: 749 172 35 4 25 45 3 4 0 215 5 9 801
Greinke, Zack proj: 740 183 37 5 19 47 3 6 5 178 6 6 801
Hernandez, David 2017: 71 19 3 0 4 1 2 0 0 15 2 1 74
Hernandez, David proj: 66 16 3 0 2 7 0 0 1 17 1 0 74
Hoover, J.J. 2017: 170 47 8 2 7 26 0 0 1 54 1 1 197
Hoover, J.J. proj: 170 39 8 2 7 22 2 2 1 47 1 1 197
Koch, Matt 2017: 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Koch, Matt proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
McFarland, T.J. 2017: 217 65 11 0 4 17 3 2 2 29 2 0 241
McFarland, T.J. proj: 217 65 12 0 4 18 1 2 2 33 2 0 240
Miller, Shelby 2017: 87 20 7 0 1 12 0 0 0 20 1 0 99
Miller, Shelby proj: 88 22 4 0 2 9 0 1 1 19 2 1 99
Ray, Robbie 2017: 582 116 18 2 23 71 3 4 5 218 8 8 665
Ray, Robbie proj: 587 146 29 4 19 63 4 5 6 180 10 5 665
Rodney, Fernando 2017: 200 40 6 1 3 26 1 2 2 65 5 2 231
Rodney, Fernando proj: 198 46 9 1 4 26 1 2 3 53 5 1 230
Sherfy, Jimmie 2017: 35 5 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 1 1 37
Sherfy, Jimmie proj: 35 5 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 1 1 37
Shipley, Braden 2017: 104 31 9 1 5 15 2 0 1 18 2 0 122
Shipley, Braden proj: 107 32 8 1 5 12 1 1 1 17 2 0 122
Walker, Taijuan 2017: 601 148 37 5 17 61 8 5 9 146 15 1 684
Walker, Taijuan proj: 615 151 32 3 22 50 6 4 9 147 12 2 684
Wilhelmsen, Tom 2017: 99 25 3 1 4 12 1 0 1 17 2 0 113
Wilhelmsen, Tom proj: 99 22 4 1 2 12 1 1 1 24 3 0 114
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5445 1309 276 34 171 516 37 36 38 1482 69 32 6072
PROJECTED: 5424 1360 289 34 161 512 34 46 55 1328 64 26 6071
difference: +21 -51 -13 0 +10 +4 +3 -10 -17 +154 +5 +6 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .240 .251
Slugging Average: .398 .406
Walks (per PA): .085 .084
SOs (per PA): .244 .219
On-Base Average: .307 .317
Power Factor: 1.65 1.62
OPS: .705 .723
TPP Runs (to date): 661 692

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 31 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.