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ATL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Collmenter, Josh 2017: 78 29 5 0 7 6 1 2 0 18 0 0 87
Collmenter, Josh proj: 80 20 4 0 3 5 0 1 0 15 1 1 86
Colon, Bartolo 2017: 253 84 23 1 11 17 2 3 1 40 2 1 276
Colon, Bartolo proj: 252 67 13 1 8 18 2 2 1 49 2 1 275
Dickey, R.A. 2017: 324 86 22 2 15 35 2 3 7 52 1 1 371
Dickey, R.A. proj: 334 86 17 2 11 28 3 2 4 62 3 2 371
Foltynewicz, Mike 2017: 290 82 13 0 12 23 1 7 3 59 2 3 324
Foltynewicz, Mike proj: 292 83 16 1 12 23 3 3 3 63 3 2 324
Freeman, Sam 2017: 82 20 3 0 1 12 0 0 0 19 1 0 94
Freeman, Sam proj: 79 19 3 0 2 12 1 0 1 20 1 0 93
Garcia, Jaime 2017: 308 73 18 1 8 31 1 2 1 60 10 2 343
Garcia, Jaime proj: 312 80 15 1 7 24 2 3 2 65 4 2 343
Hursh, Jason 2017: 14 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Hursh, Jason proj: 13 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Jackson, Luke 2017: 69 17 4 0 1 5 1 0 2 12 2 0 77
Jackson, Luke proj: 68 20 4 0 3 7 1 0 1 10 1 0 77
Johnson, Jim 2017: 114 23 4 0 2 7 0 0 1 34 2 0 122
Johnson, Jim proj: 110 28 4 0 2 9 1 1 2 22 2 0 123
Krol, Ian 2017: 96 21 3 0 4 14 0 0 1 23 3 1 111
Krol, Ian proj: 99 27 4 1 4 10 0 1 1 24 2 1 111
Motte, Jason 2017: 72 14 4 0 4 8 0 0 2 12 3 0 82
Motte, Jason proj: 74 17 4 0 2 6 1 0 1 19 1 0 82
Newcomb, Sean 2017: 65 12 1 1 1 7 1 0 0 13 1 0 73
Newcomb, Sean proj: 65 12 1 1 1 7 1 0 0 13 1 0 73
O'Flaherty, Eric 2017: 72 20 8 0 4 9 1 1 0 15 1 0 83
O'Flaherty, Eric proj: 74 19 3 0 1 7 0 1 1 15 1 1 83
Ramirez, Jose 2017: 102 20 5 0 3 12 1 0 1 24 3 1 116
Ramirez, Jose proj: 96 23 7 1 2 15 1 0 3 23 4 1 115
Roe, Chaz 2017: 10 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 13
Roe, Chaz proj: 11 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 13
Teheran, Julio 2017: 333 89 12 1 17 32 2 5 4 59 10 4 376
Teheran, Julio proj: 341 83 14 2 11 25 2 4 4 77 6 2 376
Vizcaino, Arodys 2017: 109 20 1 1 4 9 0 0 2 36 1 0 120
Vizcaino, Arodys proj: 105 23 4 0 2 13 0 1 1 32 1 0 120
Wisler, Matt 2017: 57 15 4 1 2 6 1 1 0 10 0 0 65
Wisler, Matt proj: 59 16 3 0 2 5 0 0 0 11 1 0 64
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2448 631 131 8 96 237 14 24 26 490 42 13 2749
PROJECTED: 2464 630 118 10 73 219 18 19 25 525 34 13 2745
difference: -16 +1 +13 -2 +23 +18 -4 +5 +1 -35 +8 0 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .258 .256
Slugging Average: .435 .401
Walks (per PA): .086 .080
SOs (per PA): .178 .191
On-Base Average: .325 .318
Power Factor: 1.69 1.57
OPS: .761 .719
TPP Runs (to date): 346 313

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 33 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.