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ATL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 23 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Brothers, Rex 2017: 29 6 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 9 0 0 32
Brothers, Rex proj: 27 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 31
Collmenter, Josh 2017: 78 29 5 0 7 6 1 2 0 18 0 0 87
Collmenter, Josh proj: 80 20 4 0 3 5 0 1 0 15 1 1 86
Colon, Bartolo 2017: 272 92 24 2 11 20 2 4 1 42 4 1 299
Colon, Bartolo proj: 273 73 14 1 9 20 2 3 1 53 2 1 299
Dickey, R.A. 2017: 444 115 29 2 17 44 2 4 9 78 3 2 503
Dickey, R.A. proj: 453 116 23 3 15 38 3 3 5 84 4 2 502
Foltynewicz, Mike 2017: 408 109 20 0 16 36 2 7 4 92 4 3 457
Foltynewicz, Mike proj: 411 115 23 2 17 33 4 4 4 92 4 3 456
Freeman, Sam 2017: 131 33 4 0 2 18 0 0 2 34 2 0 151
Freeman, Sam proj: 128 31 4 0 3 19 1 1 2 32 2 0 151
Garcia, Jaime 2017: 429 108 29 2 12 41 1 2 1 85 15 5 474
Garcia, Jaime proj: 432 111 22 2 10 34 2 4 2 90 6 3 474
Hursh, Jason 2017: 21 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 24
Hursh, Jason proj: 20 6 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 24
Jackson, Luke 2017: 113 28 7 1 1 11 2 1 2 18 2 0 129
Jackson, Luke proj: 113 33 7 1 4 12 2 1 1 16 2 1 129
Johnson, Jim 2017: 161 38 7 0 2 15 2 0 1 50 2 0 179
Johnson, Jim proj: 160 42 6 1 3 14 1 1 2 32 3 1 178
Krol, Ian 2017: 137 36 5 0 6 15 0 0 1 32 5 1 153
Krol, Ian proj: 137 38 6 1 5 13 1 1 2 33 3 1 154
Morris, Akeel 2017: 15 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 16
Morris, Akeel proj: 13 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 16
Motte, Jason 2017: 94 21 5 0 5 9 1 0 2 19 4 0 106
Motte, Jason proj: 96 22 5 0 3 8 1 1 1 25 2 0 107
Newcomb, Sean 2017: 165 43 10 1 5 22 2 1 2 44 1 0 192
Newcomb, Sean proj: 165 43 10 1 5 22 2 1 2 44 1 0 192
O'Flaherty, Eric 2017: 72 20 8 0 4 9 1 1 0 15 1 0 83
O'Flaherty, Eric proj: 74 19 3 0 1 7 0 1 1 15 1 1 83
Ramirez, Jose 2017: 134 25 6 0 4 18 2 0 2 34 5 1 156
Ramirez, Jose proj: 129 30 9 1 3 21 2 0 4 32 6 1 156
Roe, Chaz 2017: 10 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 13
Roe, Chaz proj: 11 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 13
Teheran, Julio 2017: 448 116 16 1 23 45 2 5 4 86 16 4 504
Teheran, Julio proj: 457 110 18 3 16 34 2 5 5 103 8 2 503
Vizcaino, Arodys 2017: 138 29 3 1 5 12 0 0 2 40 1 0 152
Vizcaino, Arodys proj: 133 30 5 1 3 17 0 1 1 39 1 0 152
Wisler, Matt 2017: 64 17 6 1 2 7 1 1 1 11 1 0 74
Wisler, Matt proj: 67 18 4 0 3 6 1 0 1 12 1 0 75
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3363 874 188 11 124 337 21 28 35 718 66 17 3784
PROJECTED: 3379 870 167 17 105 316 24 28 34 735 47 17 3781
difference: -16 +4 +21 -6 +19 +21 -3 0 +1 -17 +19 0 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .260 .257
Slugging Average: .433 .410
Walks (per PA): .089 .084
SOs (per PA): .190 .194
On-Base Average: .329 .323
Power Factor: 1.67 1.59
OPS: .762 .733
TPP Runs (to date): 479 446

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 33 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 24 July 2017, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.