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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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ATL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blair, Aaron 2017: 12 5 1 1 1 5 1 1 0 3 2 0 19
Blair, Aaron proj: 16 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 18
Brothers, Rex 2017: 92 23 5 1 3 12 0 0 1 33 0 0 105
Brothers, Rex proj: 90 22 4 1 2 14 1 0 0 28 1 1 105
Collmenter, Josh 2017: 78 29 5 0 7 6 1 2 0 18 0 0 87
Collmenter, Josh proj: 80 20 4 0 3 5 0 1 0 15 1 1 86
Colon, Bartolo 2017: 272 92 24 2 11 20 2 4 1 42 4 1 299
Colon, Bartolo proj: 274 73 14 1 9 20 2 3 1 52 2 1 300
Dickey, R.A. 2017: 726 193 46 5 26 67 5 7 10 136 4 5 815
Dickey, R.A. proj: 734 188 38 5 24 61 6 6 8 137 7 4 815
Foltynewicz, Mike 2017: 610 169 37 3 20 59 2 11 10 143 7 3 692
Foltynewicz, Mike proj: 619 175 37 4 24 53 5 7 8 140 7 4 692
Freeman, Sam 2017: 222 48 6 0 3 27 1 1 3 59 2 0 254
Freeman, Sam proj: 216 50 7 0 4 31 2 1 4 55 2 1 254
Fried, Max 2017: 105 30 5 1 3 12 0 0 4 22 0 1 121
Fried, Max proj: 105 30 5 1 3 12 0 0 4 22 0 1 121
Garcia, Jaime 2017: 429 108 29 2 12 41 1 2 1 85 15 5 474
Garcia, Jaime proj: 431 112 22 1 10 35 3 4 2 91 7 3 475
Gohara, Luiz 2017: 113 32 13 1 2 8 0 2 0 31 2 1 123
Gohara, Luiz proj: 113 32 13 1 2 8 0 2 0 31 2 1 123
Hursh, Jason 2017: 41 13 2 0 1 4 1 0 1 7 0 0 47
Hursh, Jason proj: 40 14 2 0 1 6 1 0 1 6 0 0 48
Jackson, Luke 2017: 198 55 12 1 4 19 2 1 4 33 5 0 224
Jackson, Luke proj: 198 59 12 1 6 21 2 1 3 30 4 1 225
Johnson, Jim 2017: 227 59 9 0 8 25 3 0 1 61 3 0 256
Johnson, Jim proj: 229 60 8 1 4 20 1 2 3 46 4 1 255
Krol, Ian 2017: 188 50 9 1 8 21 1 0 4 44 6 1 214
Krol, Ian proj: 190 53 9 2 7 19 1 1 3 45 4 1 214
Minter, A.J. 2017: 58 13 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 26 0 0 60
Minter, A.J. proj: 58 13 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 26 0 0 60
Morris, Akeel 2017: 28 6 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 32
Morris, Akeel proj: 26 7 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 32
Motte, Jason 2017: 141 28 8 0 6 20 2 0 3 27 7 0 166
Motte, Jason proj: 149 34 7 1 5 13 2 1 2 38 3 1 167
Newcomb, Sean 2017: 385 100 21 5 10 57 3 5 6 108 2 1 456
Newcomb, Sean proj: 385 100 21 5 10 57 3 5 6 108 2 1 456
O'Flaherty, Eric 2017: 72 20 8 0 4 9 1 1 0 15 1 0 83
O'Flaherty, Eric proj: 74 19 3 0 1 7 0 1 1 15 1 1 83
Ramirez, Jose 2017: 221 45 10 0 9 29 2 1 5 56 8 1 258
Ramirez, Jose proj: 215 50 14 2 7 33 3 1 7 53 9 1 259
Roe, Chaz 2017: 10 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 13
Roe, Chaz proj: 11 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
Sims, Lucas 2017: 222 64 17 2 9 23 1 5 4 44 3 5 255
Sims, Lucas proj: 222 64 17 2 9 23 1 5 4 44 3 5 255
Teheran, Julio 2017: 723 186 31 5 31 72 3 7 7 151 26 6 812
Teheran, Julio proj: 735 178 30 5 25 57 3 9 8 167 14 4 812
Vizcaino, Arodys 2017: 211 42 5 3 7 21 1 0 2 64 1 0 235
Vizcaino, Arodys proj: 206 46 7 1 5 26 0 1 1 62 1 0 234
Winkler, Dan 2017: 46 7 2 0 1 6 0 1 0 18 0 0 53
Winkler, Dan proj: 46 7 2 0 2 6 0 1 0 18 0 0 53
Wisler, Matt 2017: 133 43 16 2 5 13 3 2 2 22 1 0 153
Wisler, Matt proj: 138 38 9 1 6 12 1 1 1 25 2 0 153
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5563 1463 326 36 192 584 36 53 70 1258 99 30 6306
PROJECTED: 5600 1452 291 36 172 550 37 53 67 1267 76 33 6307
difference: -37 +11 +35 0 +20 +34 -1 0 +3 -9 +23 -3 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .263 .259
Slugging Average: .438 .416
Walks (per PA): .093 .087
SOs (per PA): .199 .201
On-Base Average: .336 .328
Power Factor: 1.67 1.61
OPS: .774 .744
TPP Runs (to date): 815 760

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 55 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.