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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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BAL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Aquino, Jayson 2017: 56 15 4 0 4 6 0 0 0 13 1 0 62
Aquino, Jayson proj: 57 14 4 0 4 5 0 0 0 14 1 0 62
Asher, Alec 2017: 232 61 11 1 10 23 2 1 7 47 5 0 265
Asher, Alec proj: 236 64 13 1 10 19 2 3 5 39 3 1 265
Bleier, Richard 2017: 241 62 9 0 6 13 4 3 4 26 5 1 265
Bleier, Richard proj: 243 61 10 1 4 13 4 2 4 29 5 1 266
Brach, Brad 2017: 245 51 11 0 7 26 3 1 0 70 0 2 275
Brach, Brad proj: 241 52 10 0 7 29 3 1 1 72 5 2 275
Britton, Zach 2017: 141 39 5 0 1 18 1 1 0 29 3 1 161
Britton, Zach proj: 144 35 6 0 2 14 1 1 0 32 1 1 160
Bundy, Dylan 2017: 633 152 34 1 26 51 7 0 7 152 5 4 698
Bundy, Dylan proj: 629 155 31 1 26 56 5 1 8 152 9 6 699
Castro, Miguel 2017: 237 53 12 0 8 28 4 3 2 38 4 3 274
Castro, Miguel proj: 238 59 12 1 10 28 4 3 2 44 5 3 275
Crichton, Stefan 2017: 57 26 4 1 2 4 1 0 0 8 0 1 62
Crichton, Stefan proj: 57 26 4 1 2 4 1 0 0 8 0 1 62
Drake, Oliver 2017: 15 6 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 1 18
Drake, Oliver proj: 16 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 18
Gausman, Kevin 2017: 736 208 39 2 29 71 3 1 5 179 9 3 816
Gausman, Kevin proj: 744 199 39 2 27 59 5 4 4 178 6 3 816
Givens, Mychal 2017: 285 57 10 0 10 25 0 0 5 88 6 1 315
Givens, Mychal proj: 279 58 14 0 7 28 1 1 5 94 5 2 314
Hart, Donnie 2017: 172 48 8 0 5 13 1 0 4 29 2 0 190
Hart, Donnie proj: 170 44 7 0 4 14 1 1 3 30 1 1 189
Hellickson, Jeremy 2017: 202 49 13 0 13 17 2 0 2 31 3 1 223
Hellickson, Jeremy proj: 203 50 11 1 8 16 1 1 2 39 3 1 223
Jackson, Edwin 2017: 24 11 4 0 2 4 0 1 0 2 0 0 29
Jackson, Edwin proj: 26 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 29
Jimenez, Ubaldo 2017: 580 169 39 4 33 58 4 1 5 139 18 4 648
Jimenez, Ubaldo proj: 567 141 29 4 15 68 3 3 6 138 18 5 647
Miley, Wade 2017: 624 179 30 2 25 93 6 1 4 142 5 4 728
Miley, Wade proj: 657 178 38 3 19 59 4 5 4 135 4 5 729
Nuno, Vidal 2017: 67 23 8 0 7 10 0 0 0 13 1 0 77
Nuno, Vidal proj: 70 19 4 0 3 5 1 0 1 15 1 0 77
O'Day, Darren 2017: 212 41 2 1 8 24 1 0 3 76 3 3 240
O'Day, Darren proj: 216 45 7 1 6 17 2 1 5 61 4 2 241
Rodriguez, Richard 2017: 27 12 3 0 4 3 0 0 1 3 0 0 31
Rodriguez, Richard proj: 27 12 3 0 4 3 0 0 1 3 0 0 31
Scott, Tanner 2017: 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Scott, Tanner proj: 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Tillman, Chris 2017: 386 125 25 0 24 51 2 1 4 63 2 2 444
Tillman, Chris proj: 398 102 22 2 15 39 3 1 3 78 2 3 444
Verrett, Logan 2017: 40 11 2 0 3 3 0 2 2 9 1 0 47
Verrett, Logan proj: 41 11 3 0 2 4 0 1 1 8 0 0 47
Wilson, Tyler 2017: 64 22 3 1 3 4 1 0 1 9 3 2 70
Wilson, Tyler proj: 64 19 5 0 2 4 1 0 1 9 1 1 70
Wright, Mike 2017: 98 26 8 0 5 7 1 0 3 28 1 0 109
Wright, Mike proj: 96 27 7 0 4 9 1 0 3 18 0 0 109
Yacabonis, Jimmy 2017: 73 18 1 1 2 14 3 0 0 8 0 0 90
Yacabonis, Jimmy proj: 73 18 1 1 2 14 3 0 0 8 0 0 90
Ynoa, Gabriel 2017: 135 39 7 2 5 8 2 1 1 26 0 1 147
Ynoa, Gabriel proj: 133 41 4 2 3 9 3 1 1 27 2 1 147
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5589 1505 293 17 242 579 48 17 60 1233 77 34 6293
PROJECTED: 5632 1443 287 21 187 523 49 30 60 1243 77 39 6294
difference: -43 +62 +6 -4 +55 +56 -1 -13 0 -10 0 -5 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .269 .256
Slugging Average: .458 .414
Walks (per PA): .092 .083
SOs (per PA): .196 .198
On-Base Average: .341 .322
Power Factor: 1.7 1.62
OPS: .798 .736
TPP Runs (to date): 855 740

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 115 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.