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BAL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 21 April 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Araujo, Pedro 2018: 42 9 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 16 3 0 48
Araujo, Pedro proj: 42 9 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 16 3 0 48
Bleier, Richard 2018: 52 11 3 0 0 3 1 0 1 7 1 0 57
Bleier, Richard proj: 52 13 2 0 1 3 1 0 1 6 1 0 57
Brach, Brad 2018: 27 5 0 0 0 6 0 1 0 9 0 0 34
Brach, Brad proj: 30 6 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 34
Bundy, Dylan 2018: 118 26 6 1 1 9 0 1 1 40 4 1 129
Bundy, Dylan proj: 116 28 6 0 4 10 1 0 1 29 2 1 128
Cashner, Andrew 2018: 85 19 4 1 5 11 0 0 1 21 0 2 97
Cashner, Andrew proj: 86 22 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 18 2 1 97
Castro, Miguel 2018: 46 11 3 0 1 5 0 0 0 9 1 0 51
Castro, Miguel proj: 44 11 2 0 2 5 1 0 0 8 1 0 50
Cobb, Alex 2018: 40 20 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 42
Cobb, Alex proj: 38 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 41
Cortes Jr., Nestor 2018: 22 10 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 3 0 1 26
Cortes Jr., Nestor proj: 22 10 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 3 0 1 26
Gausman, Kevin 2018: 89 27 5 0 6 6 0 0 1 19 0 0 96
Gausman, Kevin proj: 88 23 5 0 3 7 1 0 0 21 1 0 96
Givens, Mychal 2018: 38 9 1 0 1 8 0 0 1 14 1 1 47
Givens, Mychal proj: 41 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 14 1 0 46
Hart, Donnie 2018: 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12
Hart, Donnie proj: 11 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 12
O'Day, Darren 2018: 32 7 1 0 2 2 0 0 3 11 0 1 37
O'Day, Darren proj: 33 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 9 1 0 37
Scott, Tanner 2018: 12 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 13
Scott, Tanner proj: 11 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 13
Tillman, Chris 2018: 76 30 7 1 5 11 2 0 1 8 0 2 90
Tillman, Chris proj: 81 21 5 0 3 8 1 0 1 16 0 1 91
Wright Jr., Mike 2018: 50 16 2 0 2 6 1 0 2 11 0 0 59
Wright Jr., Mike proj: 52 15 4 0 2 5 1 0 2 10 0 0 60
Yacabonis, Jimmy 2018: 4 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 6
Yacabonis, Jimmy proj: 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 745 208 41 5 30 81 4 2 12 175 11 9 844
PROJECTED: 752 191 41 1 25 73 7 1 9 172 14 5 842
difference: -7 +17 0 +4 +5 +8 -3 +1 +3 +3 -3 +4 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .279 .254
Slugging Average: .468 .411
Walks (per PA): .096 .086
SOs (per PA): .207 .204
On-Base Average: .357 .324
Power Factor: 1.68 1.62
OPS: .825 .735
TPP Runs (to date): 120 99

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 21 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.