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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Abad, Fernando 2017: 165 40 9 0 4 14 2 0 1 37 5 1 182
Abad, Fernando proj: 163 40 7 1 5 15 2 1 2 37 2 1 183
Barnes, Matt 2017: 254 57 10 1 7 28 3 1 1 83 4 3 287
Barnes, Matt proj: 254 66 13 1 8 27 2 2 2 71 7 3 287
Boyer, Blaine 2017: 161 50 8 2 3 14 1 1 1 33 0 1 178
Boyer, Blaine proj: 160 44 9 1 3 14 1 2 1 26 3 1 178
Elias, Roenis 2017: 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Elias, Roenis proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Fister, Doug 2017: 343 87 18 2 9 38 5 3 3 83 0 1 392
Fister, Doug proj: 362 95 17 2 9 22 2 2 5 64 1 2 393
Hembree, Heath 2017: 249 72 14 0 10 18 2 1 1 70 8 2 271
Hembree, Heath proj: 248 66 14 0 9 21 1 0 0 60 7 3 270
Johnson, Brian 2017: 113 32 8 0 5 8 0 0 0 21 1 0 121
Johnson, Brian proj: 110 30 7 0 4 10 1 0 0 21 3 0 121
Kelly, Joe 2017: 208 42 7 0 3 27 2 0 1 52 1 1 238
Kelly, Joe proj: 211 55 9 1 5 22 2 1 2 42 2 1 238
Kendrick, Kyle 2017: 42 18 4 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 45
Kendrick, Kyle proj: 41 11 2 0 1 3 0 1 1 6 0 0 46
Kimbrel, Craig 2017: 235 33 6 0 6 14 0 1 4 126 4 6 254
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 226 35 5 0 4 24 0 1 2 107 5 2 253
Maddox, Austin 2017: 65 13 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 14 1 0 67
Maddox, Austin proj: 65 13 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 14 1 0 67
Martin, Kyle 2017: 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Martin, Kyle proj: 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Moreland, Mitch 2017: 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Moreland, Mitch proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Pomeranz, Drew 2017: 659 166 27 3 19 69 6 2 4 174 6 4 740
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 653 155 29 2 20 72 5 5 4 171 11 5 739
Porcello, Rick 2017: 824 236 54 3 38 48 6 1 6 181 15 4 885
Porcello, Rick proj: 823 228 41 4 25 48 4 3 8 147 14 5 886
Price, David 2017: 287 65 14 0 8 24 2 0 4 76 2 2 317
Price, David proj: 292 69 14 1 7 20 2 1 2 74 3 2 317
Ramirez, Noe 2017: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Ramirez, Noe proj: 15 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
Reed, Addison 2017: 95 16 3 0 5 9 0 1 1 28 0 1 106
Reed, Addison proj: 97 23 5 1 3 7 1 1 0 27 2 0 106
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2017: 523 126 33 3 19 50 3 1 5 150 2 3 582
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 524 129 29 2 18 47 4 3 4 130 2 3 582
Ross Jr., Robbie 2017: 37 12 1 1 0 5 0 0 3 9 0 0 45
Ross Jr., Robbie proj: 40 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 45
Sale, Chris 2017: 794 165 34 3 24 43 4 2 8 308 10 2 851
Sale, Chris proj: 785 174 32 2 22 49 3 3 11 248 10 4 851
Scott, Robby 2017: 123 22 3 1 7 13 2 0 3 31 0 1 141
Scott, Robby proj: 123 24 3 1 6 13 2 1 3 31 0 1 142
Smith, Carson 2017: 25 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 1 27
Smith, Carson proj: 24 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 9 1 0 27
Taylor, Ben 2017: 71 20 3 1 3 9 0 0 0 18 0 0 80
Taylor, Ben proj: 71 20 3 1 3 9 0 0 0 18 0 0 80
Velazquez, Hector 2017: 89 21 4 0 4 7 0 0 0 19 0 2 96
Velazquez, Hector proj: 89 21 4 0 4 7 0 0 0 19 0 2 96
Workman, Brandon 2017: 147 37 8 2 7 11 1 2 1 37 0 3 162
Workman, Brandon proj: 145 38 7 1 5 14 1 2 0 35 5 3 162
Wright, Steven 2017: 106 40 9 1 9 5 1 0 2 13 0 1 114
Wright, Steven proj: 103 26 4 1 3 9 0 0 1 21 1 1 113
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5647 1384 278 23 195 465 40 16 49 1580 61 39 6217
PROJECTED: 5640 1385 259 22 168 465 33 29 50 1393 80 39 6217
difference: +7 -1 +19 +1 +27 0 +7 -13 -1 +187 -19 0 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .245 .246
Slugging Average: .406 .389
Walks (per PA): .075 .075
SOs (per PA): .254 .224
On-Base Average: .305 .306
Power Factor: 1.66 1.58
OPS: .711 .694
TPP Runs (to date): 682 664

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 18 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.