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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barnes, Matt 2018: 197 35 8 1 3 27 2 0 2 86 4 0 228
Barnes, Matt proj: 201 48 10 1 6 23 2 1 2 63 5 2 229
Beeks, Jalen 2018: 29 11 4 1 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 34
Beeks, Jalen proj: 30 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 34
Brasier, Ryan 2018: 60 9 1 1 0 5 2 0 0 18 0 1 67
Brasier, Ryan proj: 59 11 1 1 1 6 2 0 0 16 1 1 67
Cuevas, William 2018: 11 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 13
Cuevas, William proj: 10 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 12
Eovaldi, Nathan 2018: 89 24 4 0 1 3 0 1 0 14 0 0 93
Eovaldi, Nathan proj: 85 23 4 1 2 7 0 1 0 16 0 0 93
Haley, Justin 2018: 31 10 2 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 35
Haley, Justin proj: 31 10 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 35
Hembree, Heath 2018: 189 44 7 2 7 24 5 0 0 65 2 2 218
Hembree, Heath proj: 197 51 10 1 7 18 2 0 0 53 5 2 217
Johnson, Brian 2018: 311 81 14 1 11 27 0 0 0 72 2 1 338
Johnson, Brian proj: 310 82 16 1 11 28 1 0 0 68 4 1 339
Kelly, Joe 2018: 186 39 6 2 3 25 3 0 3 51 6 1 217
Kelly, Joe proj: 192 49 8 1 4 20 2 1 2 40 3 1 217
Kimbrel, Craig 2018: 177 29 9 1 7 23 0 1 1 77 3 0 202
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 180 28 5 0 3 19 0 1 2 84 4 1 202
Pomeranz, Drew 2018: 223 66 18 0 10 35 2 0 2 47 0 3 262
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 231 56 11 1 7 26 2 2 2 59 4 2 263
Porcello, Rick 2018: 609 144 26 2 22 37 5 2 11 156 4 0 664
Porcello, Rick proj: 617 169 30 3 19 36 3 2 6 114 10 3 664
Poyner, Bobby 2018: 42 12 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 44
Poyner, Bobby proj: 42 12 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 44
Price, David 2018: 531 127 24 4 19 41 4 1 8 142 3 3 585
Price, David proj: 539 127 25 2 14 37 3 2 4 138 6 4 585
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2018: 406 96 11 2 12 32 2 0 4 110 1 1 444
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 401 98 19 2 13 35 3 2 4 101 2 2 445
Sale, Chris 2018: 519 91 20 2 10 33 3 0 11 219 6 2 566
Sale, Chris proj: 522 113 21 1 14 32 2 2 8 170 6 3 566
Scott, Robby 2018: 10 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 13
Scott, Robby proj: 11 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
Smith, Carson 2018: 58 14 1 2 2 6 0 0 0 18 4 0 64
Smith, Carson proj: 57 11 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 20 2 1 63
Thornburg, Tyler 2018: 59 15 1 1 2 5 1 0 0 14 1 1 65
Thornburg, Tyler proj: 57 12 2 0 2 6 0 0 1 16 1 1 64
Velazquez, Hector 2018: 254 71 12 0 6 20 2 0 5 38 1 1 281
Velazquez, Hector proj: 256 69 12 0 7 20 1 0 4 42 1 2 281
Walden, Marcus 2018: 55 14 6 0 0 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 59
Walden, Marcus proj: 55 14 6 0 0 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 59
Workman, Brandon 2018: 96 21 4 1 4 7 1 0 0 25 2 2 104
Workman, Brandon proj: 93 24 4 1 3 9 1 1 0 23 3 2 104
Wright, Steven 2018: 144 30 5 0 4 20 0 0 1 31 0 2 165
Wright, Steven proj: 148 37 6 1 5 14 0 0 2 30 2 1 164
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4286 988 186 24 129 384 33 6 52 1215 40 20 4761
PROJECTED: 4324 1057 198 19 124 355 25 16 39 1093 60 29 4759
difference: -38 -69 -12 +5 +5 +29 +8 -10 +13 +122 -20 -9 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .231 .244
Slugging Average: .375 .385
Walks (per PA): .081 .075
SOs (per PA): .255 .230
On-Base Average: .299 .305
Power Factor: 1.63 1.58
OPS: .675 .690
TPP Runs (to date): 481 502

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 21 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.