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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barnes, Matt 2018: 230 47 10 1 5 31 2 0 2 96 6 1 265
Barnes, Matt proj: 234 57 11 1 7 26 2 1 2 73 6 2 265
Beeks, Jalen 2018: 29 11 4 1 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 34
Beeks, Jalen proj: 30 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 34
Brasier, Ryan 2018: 111 19 3 1 2 7 5 1 0 29 0 1 124
Brasier, Ryan proj: 110 20 2 1 2 9 5 1 0 28 1 2 125
Cuevas, William 2018: 68 20 6 0 3 11 0 1 4 20 0 2 84
Cuevas, William proj: 66 21 7 0 2 13 0 1 4 18 0 1 84
Eovaldi, Nathan 2018: 214 57 13 1 3 12 2 1 2 48 1 0 231
Eovaldi, Nathan proj: 211 56 11 1 5 16 1 1 1 41 1 1 230
Haley, Justin 2018: 31 10 2 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 35
Haley, Justin proj: 31 10 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 4 0 0 35
Hembree, Heath 2018: 227 53 9 2 10 27 5 0 1 76 3 2 260
Hembree, Heath proj: 235 60 12 1 9 22 2 0 1 63 6 3 260
Johnson, Brian 2018: 395 104 19 2 16 38 0 0 1 87 3 1 434
Johnson, Brian proj: 395 105 20 2 16 38 1 0 1 84 5 1 435
Kelly, Joe 2018: 244 57 6 3 4 32 4 0 5 68 7 1 285
Kelly, Joe proj: 252 65 10 2 6 27 2 1 3 53 3 1 285
Kimbrel, Craig 2018: 213 31 9 2 7 31 0 1 2 96 4 0 247
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 219 34 5 0 4 24 0 1 2 103 4 2 246
Pomeranz, Drew 2018: 293 88 23 1 12 44 3 0 4 66 2 3 344
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 303 74 14 1 10 35 2 2 2 78 5 2 344
Porcello, Rick 2018: 735 177 29 3 27 48 6 3 16 190 6 1 808
Porcello, Rick proj: 749 205 36 4 23 44 4 3 8 140 12 4 808
Poyner, Bobby 2018: 86 22 5 1 4 3 1 1 2 24 2 0 93
Poyner, Bobby proj: 86 22 5 1 4 3 1 1 2 24 2 0 93
Price, David 2018: 657 151 28 4 25 50 4 1 10 177 5 3 722
Price, David proj: 665 157 31 3 18 45 4 3 5 170 8 5 722
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2018: 501 119 16 3 16 45 3 0 4 146 1 2 553
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 498 121 24 2 17 45 4 2 4 129 2 2 553
Sale, Chris 2018: 565 102 22 3 11 34 4 0 14 237 6 3 617
Sale, Chris proj: 569 124 23 2 15 35 2 2 9 186 7 3 617
Scott, Robby 2018: 30 10 3 0 2 5 0 0 5 8 0 0 40
Scott, Robby proj: 34 7 1 0 2 4 0 0 2 9 0 0 40
Smith, Carson 2018: 58 14 1 2 2 6 0 0 0 18 4 0 64
Smith, Carson proj: 57 11 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 20 2 1 63
Thornburg, Tyler 2018: 95 28 1 2 6 10 1 0 1 21 2 1 107
Thornburg, Tyler proj: 94 21 3 0 3 11 1 1 1 25 1 1 108
Velazquez, Hector 2018: 335 97 17 2 7 26 2 0 7 53 5 3 370
Velazquez, Hector proj: 337 94 17 2 9 26 2 0 6 57 4 4 371
Walden, Marcus 2018: 55 14 6 0 0 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 59
Walden, Marcus proj: 55 14 6 0 0 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 59
Workman, Brandon 2018: 148 34 6 1 6 16 3 0 0 37 5 4 167
Workman, Brandon proj: 149 38 7 1 5 15 2 1 0 36 5 3 167
Wright, Steven 2018: 195 41 9 0 5 26 0 0 2 42 0 2 223
Wright, Steven proj: 200 49 8 1 6 20 1 0 2 41 2 1 223
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5515 1306 247 35 176 512 46 9 84 1558 63 30 6166
PROJECTED: 5579 1373 258 26 167 473 37 21 57 1402 77 39 6167
difference: -64 -67 -11 +9 +9 +39 +9 -12 +27 +156 -14 -9 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .237 .246
Slugging Average: .390 .391
Walks (per PA): .083 .077
SOs (per PA): .253 .227
On-Base Average: .308 .309
Power Factor: 1.65 1.59
OPS: .698 .700
TPP Runs (to date): 664 667

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.