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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Abad, Fernando 2017: 160 37 9 0 4 13 2 0 1 36 5 1 176
Abad, Fernando proj: 157 39 7 1 5 15 2 1 2 35 2 1 177
Barnes, Matt 2017: 240 53 9 1 6 28 2 1 1 75 3 3 272
Barnes, Matt proj: 241 62 12 1 8 26 1 2 2 66 6 3 272
Boyer, Blaine 2017: 143 42 6 2 3 11 1 1 1 31 0 0 157
Boyer, Blaine proj: 141 39 8 1 3 12 1 2 1 23 3 1 157
Elias, Roenis 2017: 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Elias, Roenis proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Fister, Doug 2017: 322 82 17 2 8 37 5 3 3 78 0 1 370
Fister, Doug proj: 341 90 16 2 8 20 2 2 4 60 1 2 369
Hembree, Heath 2017: 242 70 14 0 9 18 2 1 1 68 8 2 264
Hembree, Heath proj: 242 64 13 0 8 20 1 0 0 59 7 3 263
Johnson, Brian 2017: 113 32 8 0 5 8 0 0 0 21 1 0 121
Johnson, Brian proj: 110 30 7 0 4 10 1 0 0 21 3 0 121
Kelly, Joe 2017: 199 40 7 0 3 25 2 0 1 50 1 0 227
Kelly, Joe proj: 202 52 9 1 5 21 2 1 2 40 2 1 228
Kendrick, Kyle 2017: 42 18 4 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 45
Kendrick, Kyle proj: 41 11 2 0 1 3 0 1 1 6 0 0 46
Kimbrel, Craig 2017: 227 30 5 0 5 14 0 1 4 122 4 5 246
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 219 34 5 0 4 23 0 1 2 103 5 2 245
Maddox, Austin 2017: 51 11 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 1 0 52
Maddox, Austin proj: 51 11 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 1 0 52
Martin, Kyle 2017: 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Martin, Kyle proj: 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Moreland, Mitch 2017: 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Moreland, Mitch proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Pomeranz, Drew 2017: 628 156 25 3 18 66 6 2 4 171 6 3 706
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 623 148 27 2 19 68 5 5 4 164 11 4 705
Porcello, Rick 2017: 801 229 52 3 36 46 6 1 6 173 15 4 860
Porcello, Rick proj: 799 221 40 4 24 46 4 3 7 142 14 5 859
Price, David 2017: 274 65 14 0 8 23 2 0 4 69 2 2 303
Price, David proj: 279 66 13 1 7 19 2 1 2 71 3 2 303
Ramirez, Noe 2017: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Ramirez, Noe proj: 15 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
Reed, Addison 2017: 81 14 3 0 4 6 0 1 1 27 0 1 89
Reed, Addison proj: 82 19 4 0 2 5 1 0 0 23 2 0 88
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2017: 512 120 31 3 18 48 3 1 5 148 2 3 569
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 512 125 28 2 17 46 4 3 4 127 2 3 569
Ross Jr., Robbie 2017: 37 12 1 1 0 5 0 0 3 9 0 0 45
Ross Jr., Robbie proj: 40 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 45
Sale, Chris 2017: 772 157 33 3 20 41 4 2 7 300 10 2 826
Sale, Chris proj: 762 168 31 2 21 47 3 3 11 241 9 4 826
Scott, Robby 2017: 119 22 3 1 7 13 2 0 3 30 0 1 137
Scott, Robby proj: 119 24 3 1 6 13 2 1 3 30 0 1 138
Smith, Carson 2017: 16 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 6 0 1 18
Smith, Carson proj: 16 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 17
Taylor, Ben 2017: 71 20 3 1 3 9 0 0 0 18 0 0 80
Taylor, Ben proj: 71 20 3 1 3 9 0 0 0 18 0 0 80
Velazquez, Hector 2017: 69 18 3 0 4 4 0 0 0 12 0 2 73
Velazquez, Hector proj: 69 18 3 0 4 4 0 0 0 12 0 2 73
Workman, Brandon 2017: 138 33 6 2 6 10 1 2 1 36 0 3 152
Workman, Brandon proj: 136 35 6 1 5 13 1 1 0 33 5 3 151
Wright, Steven 2017: 106 40 9 1 9 5 1 0 2 13 0 1 114
Wright, Steven proj: 103 26 4 1 3 9 0 0 1 21 1 1 113
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5395 1311 263 23 180 440 39 16 48 1514 60 35 5938
PROJECTED: 5387 1323 246 21 160 439 32 27 47 1327 77 38 5932
difference: +8 -12 +17 +2 +20 +1 +7 -11 +1 +187 -17 -3 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .243 .246
Slugging Average: .400 .388
Walks (per PA): .074 .074
SOs (per PA): .255 .223
On-Base Average: .303 .305
Power Factor: 1.65 1.58
OPS: .703 .693
TPP Runs (to date): 640 631

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 9 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.