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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Abad, Fernando 2017: 47 10 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 8 1 1 51
Abad, Fernando proj: 46 11 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 10 0 0 50
Barnes, Matt 2017: 67 14 2 0 3 10 1 0 0 20 1 1 78
Barnes, Matt proj: 69 18 4 0 2 8 0 1 1 18 2 1 79
Hembree, Heath 2017: 91 27 3 0 2 5 1 0 1 21 4 0 98
Hembree, Heath proj: 90 23 5 0 3 7 0 0 0 20 3 1 97
Johnson, Brian 2017: 22 7 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 25
Johnson, Brian proj: 20 6 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 5 1 0 25
Kelly, Joe 2017: 73 14 3 0 0 9 0 0 0 13 0 0 82
Kelly, Joe proj: 73 19 3 1 2 7 1 0 1 14 1 0 82
Kendrick, Kyle 2017: 42 18 4 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 45
Kendrick, Kyle proj: 41 11 2 0 1 3 0 1 1 6 0 0 46
Kimbrel, Craig 2017: 65 6 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 36 0 1 68
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 60 9 1 0 1 7 0 0 1 28 1 0 68
Pomeranz, Drew 2017: 150 40 6 2 7 16 2 1 0 45 2 2 169
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 149 35 7 0 5 17 1 2 1 39 3 1 170
Porcello, Rick 2017: 232 66 16 0 10 12 0 0 0 58 4 1 244
Porcello, Rick proj: 227 63 11 1 6 13 1 1 2 40 4 1 244
Ramirez, Noe 2017: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Ramirez, Noe proj: 15 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 18
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2017: 175 36 10 2 5 18 2 1 2 55 0 3 198
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 178 43 9 1 6 16 2 1 2 43 1 1 199
Ross Jr., Robbie 2017: 37 12 1 1 0 5 0 0 3 9 0 0 45
Ross Jr., Robbie proj: 40 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 45
Sale, Chris 2017: 227 39 6 1 4 13 3 1 2 95 1 0 246
Sale, Chris proj: 226 50 9 1 6 14 1 1 3 70 3 1 245
Scott, Robby 2017: 33 4 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 9 0 1 37
Scott, Robby proj: 33 6 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 8 0 1 38
Taylor, Ben 2017: 57 17 2 1 3 9 0 0 0 14 0 0 66
Taylor, Ben proj: 57 17 2 1 3 9 0 0 0 14 0 0 66
Velazquez, Hector 2017: 21 9 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 23
Velazquez, Hector proj: 21 9 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 4 0 1 23
Workman, Brandon 2017: 12 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Workman, Brandon proj: 12 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 13
Wright, Steven 2017: 106 40 9 1 9 5 1 0 2 13 0 1 114
Wright, Steven proj: 103 26 4 1 3 9 0 0 1 21 1 1 113
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1474 367 73 8 53 120 12 3 11 415 15 12 1620
PROJECTED: 1460 364 68 6 46 130 8 8 15 356 22 9 1621
difference: +14 +3 +5 +2 +7 -10 +4 -5 -4 +59 -7 +3 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .249 .249
Slugging Average: .417 .399
Walks (per PA): .074 .080
SOs (per PA): .256 .220
On-Base Average: .307 .314
Power Factor: 1.68 1.6
OPS: .725 .713
TPP Runs (to date): 183 182

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 1 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.