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BOS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Abad, Fernando 2017: 78 20 5 0 2 6 1 0 0 13 1 1 85
Abad, Fernando proj: 76 19 3 0 3 7 1 0 1 17 1 1 85
Barnes, Matt 2017: 116 26 6 1 3 16 1 0 0 39 2 2 133
Barnes, Matt proj: 118 31 6 0 4 13 1 1 1 32 3 2 134
Boyer, Blaine 2017: 53 19 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 55
Boyer, Blaine proj: 49 14 3 0 1 4 0 1 0 8 1 0 54
Hembree, Heath 2017: 138 42 7 0 5 6 1 0 1 33 4 1 146
Hembree, Heath proj: 135 35 7 0 5 10 1 0 0 30 4 2 146
Johnson, Brian 2017: 87 24 5 0 5 5 0 0 0 17 1 0 92
Johnson, Brian proj: 84 22 4 0 4 7 1 0 0 17 2 0 92
Kelly, Joe 2017: 108 20 5 0 0 15 0 0 0 23 1 0 123
Kelly, Joe proj: 109 28 5 1 3 11 1 0 1 21 1 1 122
Kendrick, Kyle 2017: 42 18 4 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 45
Kendrick, Kyle proj: 41 11 2 0 1 3 0 1 1 6 0 0 46
Kimbrel, Craig 2017: 105 9 3 0 1 5 0 0 1 59 0 3 111
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 99 15 2 0 2 11 0 0 1 46 2 1 111
Maddox, Austin 2017: 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7
Maddox, Austin proj: 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7
Pomeranz, Drew 2017: 285 75 10 2 11 25 3 1 0 82 5 2 314
Pomeranz, Drew proj: 278 66 12 1 9 30 2 3 2 73 6 2 315
Porcello, Rick 2017: 393 124 30 1 16 18 3 0 1 85 9 2 415
Porcello, Rick proj: 386 107 19 2 11 22 2 1 3 68 7 2 414
Price, David 2017: 108 25 3 0 7 14 0 0 3 24 1 0 125
Price, David proj: 115 27 5 0 3 8 1 1 1 29 1 1 126
Ramirez, Noe 2017: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Ramirez, Noe proj: 15 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 18
Rodriguez, Eduardo 2017: 221 49 12 2 9 21 2 1 2 65 1 3 247
Rodriguez, Eduardo proj: 222 54 11 1 8 20 2 1 2 53 1 1 247
Ross Jr., Robbie 2017: 37 12 1 1 0 5 0 0 3 9 0 0 45
Ross Jr., Robbie proj: 40 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 45
Sale, Chris 2017: 389 78 18 1 8 19 4 2 2 146 3 0 416
Sale, Chris proj: 383 85 16 1 10 24 2 2 6 118 5 2 417
Scott, Robby 2017: 59 11 1 0 2 7 1 0 0 14 0 1 67
Scott, Robby proj: 59 12 1 0 1 7 1 1 0 14 0 1 68
Taylor, Ben 2017: 57 17 2 1 3 9 0 0 0 14 0 0 66
Taylor, Ben proj: 57 17 2 1 3 9 0 0 0 14 0 0 66
Velazquez, Hector 2017: 53 15 3 0 4 3 0 0 0 9 0 1 56
Velazquez, Hector proj: 53 15 3 0 4 3 0 0 0 9 0 1 56
Workman, Brandon 2017: 22 8 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 4 0 0 24
Workman, Brandon proj: 21 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 1 0 23
Wright, Steven 2017: 106 40 9 1 9 5 1 0 2 13 0 1 114
Wright, Steven proj: 103 26 4 1 3 9 0 0 1 21 1 1 113
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2481 636 127 11 90 186 17 4 16 666 31 17 2704
PROJECTED: 2450 606 109 8 78 206 15 12 22 595 38 18 2705
difference: +31 +30 +18 +3 +12 -20 +2 -8 -6 +71 -7 -1 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .256 .247
Slugging Average: .425 .394
Walks (per PA): .069 .076
SOs (per PA): .246 .220
On-Base Average: .310 .308
Power Factor: 1.66 1.59
OPS: .735 .702
TPP Runs (to date): 315 295

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 20 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.