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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 98 34 14 1 2 12 1 0 0 16 1 0 111
Anderson, Brett proj: 102 28 5 0 2 7 0 1 1 19 2 1 111
Arrieta, Jake 2017: 303 78 16 3 12 25 2 0 5 86 8 1 335
Arrieta, Jake proj: 301 67 14 2 7 28 1 2 3 76 9 2 335
Butler, Eddie 2017: 144 34 11 1 3 21 1 0 0 25 4 0 166
Butler, Eddie proj: 145 45 12 1 6 17 1 2 1 22 3 1 166
Davis, Wade 2017: 89 14 3 0 1 9 0 1 1 36 2 0 100
Davis, Wade proj: 90 21 4 1 2 9 1 0 1 21 1 1 101
Duensing, Brian 2017: 122 30 5 1 5 8 0 0 1 36 3 0 131
Duensing, Brian proj: 119 32 6 1 3 10 1 1 1 21 1 1 132
Edwards Jr., Carl 2017: 96 12 0 0 3 14 0 1 1 40 1 0 112
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 97 12 2 0 3 13 1 0 0 40 1 0 111
Floro, Dylan 2017: 31 13 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 32
Floro, Dylan proj: 30 11 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 32
Frankoff, Seth 2017: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Frankoff, Seth proj: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Grimm, Justin 2017: 91 19 2 0 7 10 0 0 1 32 3 0 102
Grimm, Justin proj: 91 23 5 0 3 9 1 0 1 25 2 1 102
Hendricks, Kyle 2017: 227 53 7 0 9 21 1 2 2 51 7 1 253
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 233 53 10 1 6 15 1 2 3 53 5 2 254
Johnson, Pierce 2017: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Johnson, Pierce proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Lackey, John 2017: 317 83 14 2 20 26 4 2 4 77 7 1 353
Lackey, John proj: 321 84 16 1 9 24 2 2 4 67 8 2 353
Lester, Jon 2017: 339 86 19 2 11 29 1 2 1 93 7 8 372
Lester, Jon proj: 336 82 17 1 8 29 2 2 3 84 8 4 372
Montero, Miguel 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montgomery, Mike 2017: 179 38 4 0 2 26 1 3 2 39 2 2 211
Montgomery, Mike proj: 185 43 9 0 4 21 1 1 3 40 1 1 211
Pena, Felix 2017: 46 15 4 0 3 6 0 0 1 11 2 0 53
Pena, Felix proj: 47 12 2 0 2 5 0 0 1 14 1 0 53
Rondon, Hector 2017: 102 22 4 0 5 11 0 0 1 32 5 1 114
Rondon, Hector proj: 104 23 4 0 3 8 1 1 1 28 3 0 115
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rosscup, Zac proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Strop, Pedro 2017: 97 21 6 1 2 13 0 1 2 29 1 0 113
Strop, Pedro proj: 97 19 5 0 2 13 1 1 2 30 1 0 114
Uehara, Koji 2017: 93 18 3 1 1 7 1 1 0 28 0 1 102
Uehara, Koji proj: 96 19 4 1 3 4 1 1 0 31 1 0 102
Zastryzny, Rob 2017: 13 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 17
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 15 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2407 579 115 12 90 246 12 13 22 642 53 15 2700
PROJECTED: 2430 584 117 9 65 218 15 16 25 586 48 16 2704
difference: -23 -5 -2 +3 +25 +28 -3 -3 -3 +56 +5 -1 -4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .241 .240
Slugging Average: .410 .376
Walks (per PA): .091 .081
SOs (per PA): .238 .217
On-Base Average: .314 .306
Power Factor: 1.71 1.57
OPS: .724 .682
TPP Runs (to date): 315 283

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 32 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.