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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 98 34 14 1 2 12 1 0 0 16 1 0 111
Anderson, Brett proj: 102 28 5 0 2 7 1 1 1 19 2 1 112
Arrieta, Jake 2017: 622 144 33 3 21 54 4 1 10 159 19 4 691
Arrieta, Jake proj: 620 138 28 3 16 58 3 3 6 155 19 4 690
Butler, Eddie 2017: 205 50 13 1 4 28 1 1 2 30 4 0 237
Butler, Eddie proj: 207 64 16 2 8 24 1 3 2 30 5 2 237
Davis, Wade 2017: 201 36 7 0 6 28 0 1 3 76 4 0 233
Davis, Wade proj: 208 49 10 1 5 21 1 1 2 51 3 1 233
Duensing, Brian 2017: 230 55 9 1 5 18 0 1 2 61 4 1 251
Duensing, Brian proj: 228 62 12 1 6 19 1 2 1 41 2 1 251
Edwards Jr., Carl 2017: 211 29 3 0 6 36 1 1 3 92 5 0 252
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 215 29 4 0 6 33 2 1 2 91 4 1 253
Floro, Dylan 2017: 42 15 3 0 2 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 45
Floro, Dylan proj: 42 15 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 45
Frankoff, Seth 2017: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Frankoff, Seth proj: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Grimm, Justin 2017: 189 45 5 0 12 26 1 1 1 57 7 1 218
Grimm, Justin proj: 193 49 10 0 6 21 2 1 1 52 5 2 218
Hendricks, Kyle 2017: 503 122 16 0 17 39 1 6 2 114 12 3 551
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 507 117 22 1 12 33 1 5 5 116 10 4 551
Jay, Jon 2017: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Jay, Jon proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Johnson, Pierce 2017: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Johnson, Pierce proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Lackey, John 2017: 630 161 28 2 36 51 9 3 12 145 13 2 705
Lackey, John proj: 641 168 33 3 19 48 4 4 8 134 15 4 705
Leathersich, Jack 2017: 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 7
Leathersich, Jack proj: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 7
Lester, Jon 2017: 650 170 33 3 25 58 4 4 4 169 19 11 720
Lester, Jon proj: 650 159 33 2 17 56 4 3 6 162 17 7 719
Maples, Dillon 2017: 15 5 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 19
Maples, Dillon proj: 15 5 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 19
Martin, Leonys 2017: 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Martin, Leonys proj: 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montgomery, Mike 2017: 453 100 17 0 10 52 2 5 8 97 6 3 520
Montgomery, Mike proj: 457 106 22 1 11 50 2 3 9 99 4 2 521
Pena, Felix 2017: 116 31 9 0 6 15 0 0 1 32 3 0 132
Pena, Felix proj: 117 28 7 0 6 14 0 0 1 36 2 0 132
Quintana, Jose 2017: 297 66 13 1 9 21 1 0 8 93 7 3 327
Quintana, Jose proj: 301 77 16 2 8 21 2 1 2 68 3 2 327
Rondon, Hector 2017: 207 49 9 1 10 20 0 1 1 67 6 1 229
Rondon, Hector proj: 209 47 8 0 6 16 1 2 2 57 6 1 230
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rosscup, Zac proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Strop, Pedro 2017: 211 44 11 1 4 26 1 2 3 60 2 1 243
Strop, Pedro proj: 209 42 10 0 4 27 1 2 4 64 2 1 243
Tseng, Jen-Ho 2017: 14 5 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 6 2 0 17
Tseng, Jen-Ho proj: 14 5 1 0 2 1 1 0 1 6 2 0 17
Uehara, Koji 2017: 164 38 4 1 7 12 1 1 0 50 0 1 178
Uehara, Koji proj: 168 33 7 1 6 7 1 1 0 55 1 0 177
Wilson, Justin 2017: 65 17 6 0 0 16 0 0 0 21 4 0 81
Wilson, Justin proj: 72 16 3 0 1 8 0 0 1 21 2 0 81
Zastryzny, Rob 2017: 43 14 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 9 0 0 51
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 44 11 1 0 1 5 1 0 1 11 0 0 51
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5197 1241 239 15 188 533 29 28 63 1372 118 31 5850
PROJECTED: 5255 1260 253 17 145 479 29 33 55 1290 106 33 5851
difference: -58 -19 -14 -2 +43 +54 0 -5 +8 +82 +12 -2 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .239 .240
Slugging Average: .399 .377
Walks (per PA): .091 .082
SOs (per PA): .235 .221
On-Base Average: .314 .307
Power Factor: 1.67 1.57
OPS: .713 .684
TPP Runs (to date): 667 616

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 51 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.