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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 98 34 14 1 2 12 1 0 0 16 1 0 111
Anderson, Brett proj: 102 28 5 0 2 7 0 1 1 19 2 1 111
Arrieta, Jake 2017: 203 57 10 2 8 14 2 0 3 55 6 1 222
Arrieta, Jake proj: 199 45 9 1 5 19 1 1 2 50 6 1 222
Butler, Eddie 2017: 32 5 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 8 1 0 40
Butler, Eddie proj: 35 11 3 0 1 4 0 1 0 5 1 0 40
Davis, Wade 2017: 58 6 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 22 1 0 63
Davis, Wade proj: 57 13 3 0 1 5 0 0 0 13 1 0 62
Duensing, Brian 2017: 82 21 3 1 3 4 0 0 1 25 1 0 87
Duensing, Brian proj: 79 22 4 1 2 6 0 1 1 14 1 0 87
Edwards Jr., Carl 2017: 58 6 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 24 0 0 65
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 57 7 1 0 2 7 1 0 0 23 0 0 65
Floro, Dylan 2017: 31 13 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 32
Floro, Dylan proj: 30 11 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 1 0 32
Grimm, Justin 2017: 55 16 2 0 6 8 0 0 1 15 2 0 64
Grimm, Justin proj: 57 15 3 0 2 6 0 0 0 15 1 1 63
Hendricks, Kyle 2017: 166 38 5 0 6 18 1 2 1 38 5 1 188
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 173 39 8 0 4 11 0 2 2 40 3 1 188
Johnson, Pierce 2017: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Johnson, Pierce proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Lackey, John 2017: 210 58 12 1 12 15 3 1 3 55 6 1 232
Lackey, John proj: 211 55 11 1 6 16 1 1 2 44 5 2 231
Lester, Jon 2017: 202 52 12 2 5 21 1 1 1 54 6 7 226
Lester, Jon proj: 204 50 10 1 5 18 1 1 2 51 5 2 226
Montero, Miguel 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montgomery, Mike 2017: 94 21 4 0 0 19 0 2 2 21 1 1 117
Montgomery, Mike proj: 102 24 5 0 2 12 0 1 2 22 1 1 117
Pena, Felix 2017: 23 7 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 24
Pena, Felix proj: 22 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 24
Rondon, Hector 2017: 62 13 3 0 3 6 0 0 0 18 2 0 68
Rondon, Hector proj: 62 14 2 0 1 4 0 1 1 16 2 0 68
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rosscup, Zac proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Strop, Pedro 2017: 54 12 2 0 2 8 0 1 2 16 1 0 65
Strop, Pedro proj: 56 11 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 17 0 0 65
Uehara, Koji 2017: 58 12 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 18 0 0 62
Uehara, Koji proj: 59 12 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 19 0 0 61
Zastryzny, Rob 2017: 13 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 17
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 15 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1510 376 76 7 54 157 9 7 14 398 34 11 1697
PROJECTED: 1532 368 71 4 38 132 4 11 14 368 29 9 1693
difference: -22 +8 +5 +3 +16 +25 +5 -4 0 +30 +5 +2 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .249 .240
Slugging Average: .416 .366
Walks (per PA): .093 .078
SOs (per PA): .235 .217
On-Base Average: .322 .304
Power Factor: 1.67 1.52
OPS: .738 .670
TPP Runs (to date): 204 173

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 31 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.