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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 98 34 14 1 2 12 1 0 0 16 1 0 111
Anderson, Brett proj: 102 28 5 0 2 7 0 1 1 19 2 1 111
Arrieta, Jake 2017: 637 150 33 5 23 55 4 1 10 163 19 4 707
Arrieta, Jake proj: 634 141 29 3 16 60 3 4 6 158 19 4 707
Butler, Eddie 2017: 205 50 13 1 4 28 1 1 2 30 4 0 237
Butler, Eddie proj: 207 64 16 2 8 24 1 3 2 30 5 2 237
Davis, Wade 2017: 210 39 8 0 6 28 0 1 3 79 4 0 242
Davis, Wade proj: 217 51 10 1 5 21 2 1 2 53 3 1 243
Duensing, Brian 2017: 236 58 9 1 6 18 0 1 2 61 4 1 257
Duensing, Brian proj: 233 63 12 1 6 19 1 2 1 41 2 1 256
Edwards Jr., Carl 2017: 218 29 3 0 6 38 1 1 4 94 5 0 262
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 223 29 4 0 6 34 2 1 3 94 4 1 263
Floro, Dylan 2017: 42 15 3 0 2 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 45
Floro, Dylan proj: 42 15 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 45
Frankoff, Seth 2017: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Frankoff, Seth proj: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Grimm, Justin 2017: 202 47 5 0 12 27 1 1 1 59 8 1 232
Grimm, Justin proj: 206 52 11 0 7 22 2 1 1 56 5 2 232
Hendricks, Kyle 2017: 521 126 17 0 17 40 1 6 2 123 13 4 570
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 525 121 22 1 13 34 1 5 5 122 10 4 570
Jay, Jon 2017: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Jay, Jon proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Johnson, Pierce 2017: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Johnson, Pierce proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Lackey, John 2017: 654 165 30 2 36 53 9 3 12 149 13 2 731
Lackey, John proj: 665 174 34 3 19 50 4 4 8 139 16 5 731
Leathersich, Jack 2017: 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 7
Leathersich, Jack proj: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 7
Lester, Jon 2017: 691 179 34 3 26 60 4 4 4 180 19 12 763
Lester, Jon proj: 689 169 34 3 17 59 5 4 6 172 17 7 763
Maples, Dillon 2017: 21 6 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 11 0 1 27
Maples, Dillon proj: 21 6 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 11 0 1 27
Martin, Leonys 2017: 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Martin, Leonys proj: 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montgomery, Mike 2017: 470 103 18 0 10 55 2 5 8 100 6 3 540
Montgomery, Mike proj: 474 110 23 1 12 52 2 3 9 102 4 2 540
Pena, Felix 2017: 135 35 10 0 8 18 0 0 2 37 4 0 155
Pena, Felix proj: 136 33 8 0 7 17 0 0 2 41 3 0 155
Quintana, Jose 2017: 316 72 15 1 9 21 1 0 8 98 7 3 346
Quintana, Jose proj: 318 81 17 2 8 22 2 1 2 72 4 2 345
Rondon, Hector 2017: 215 50 9 1 10 20 0 1 1 69 6 1 237
Rondon, Hector proj: 216 49 8 0 6 16 1 2 2 59 6 1 237
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rosscup, Zac proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Strop, Pedro 2017: 218 45 11 1 4 26 1 2 3 65 2 1 250
Strop, Pedro proj: 215 43 10 0 4 27 1 2 4 66 2 1 249
Tseng, Jen-Ho 2017: 22 5 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 8 2 1 26
Tseng, Jen-Ho proj: 22 5 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 8 2 1 26
Uehara, Koji 2017: 164 38 4 1 7 12 1 1 0 50 0 1 178
Uehara, Koji proj: 168 33 7 1 6 7 1 1 0 55 1 0 177
Wilson, Justin 2017: 71 18 6 0 0 19 0 0 1 25 4 0 91
Wilson, Justin proj: 81 18 3 1 2 9 0 0 1 23 2 0 91
Zastryzny, Rob 2017: 54 19 4 0 2 7 0 0 1 11 0 0 62
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 54 15 2 0 1 6 1 0 1 14 0 0 62
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5431 1294 250 17 194 554 29 28 66 1439 121 35 6108
PROJECTED: 5484 1312 261 19 150 500 30 35 57 1350 109 36 6106
difference: -53 -18 -11 -2 +44 +54 -1 -7 +9 +89 +12 -1 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .238 .239
Slugging Average: .398 .376
Walks (per PA): .091 .082
SOs (per PA): .236 .221
On-Base Average: .313 .306
Power Factor: 1.67 1.57
OPS: .711 .682
TPP Runs (to date): 692 639

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 53 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.