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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 20 July 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bass, Anthony 2018: 59 18 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 14 2 0 62
Bass, Anthony proj: 56 15 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 10 1 0 61
Butler, Eddie 2018: 56 12 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 10 0 1 61
Butler, Eddie proj: 54 16 4 0 2 6 0 1 1 8 1 0 62
Caratini, Victor 2018: 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Caratini, Victor proj: 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Chatwood, Tyler 2018: 309 76 13 1 7 73 2 4 5 76 7 2 393
Chatwood, Tyler proj: 339 91 17 2 9 46 2 3 3 63 6 3 393
Cishek, Steve 2018: 157 29 5 4 2 17 0 1 5 49 0 0 180
Cishek, Steve proj: 159 34 7 1 3 16 1 2 2 46 2 1 180
Darvish, Yu 2018: 153 36 8 0 7 21 1 1 4 49 5 1 180
Darvish, Yu proj: 161 35 7 1 5 16 1 0 2 53 4 1 180
Duensing, Brian 2018: 109 30 5 0 4 23 2 1 1 18 2 0 136
Duensing, Brian proj: 123 33 6 1 3 11 1 1 1 22 1 1 137
Edwards Jr., Carl 2018: 109 22 5 1 2 13 0 0 0 48 4 0 122
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 105 16 3 0 3 15 1 0 1 45 2 0 122
Farrell, Luke 2018: 108 24 3 1 6 14 0 0 0 37 1 0 122
Farrell, Luke proj: 106 24 3 1 5 16 0 0 0 31 1 0 122
Gimenez, Chris 2018: 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
Gimenez, Chris proj: 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Hancock, Justin 2018: 40 5 1 0 1 9 0 0 0 11 0 1 49
Hancock, Justin proj: 40 5 1 0 1 9 0 0 0 11 0 1 49
Happ, Ian 2018: 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Happ, Ian proj: 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Hendricks, Kyle 2018: 434 110 13 3 18 32 4 4 4 87 8 2 478
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 439 103 18 1 12 29 2 4 4 100 9 3 478
La Stella, Tommy 2018: 6 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
La Stella, Tommy proj: 6 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Lester, Jon 2018: 424 99 17 2 15 46 0 5 6 89 8 3 481
Lester, Jon proj: 434 106 21 2 11 38 3 2 4 107 11 4 481
Maples, Dillon 2018: 11 4 1 1 1 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 15
Maples, Dillon proj: 11 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 14
Mazzoni, Cory 2018: 28 5 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 33
Mazzoni, Cory proj: 29 11 3 0 2 4 0 0 0 4 1 0 33
Montgomery, Mike 2018: 288 72 11 0 7 25 2 2 4 48 4 5 321
Montgomery, Mike proj: 283 67 13 0 7 30 1 2 5 58 2 2 321
Morrow, Brandon 2018: 112 24 1 0 2 9 0 0 1 31 1 0 122
Morrow, Brandon proj: 107 25 6 0 3 12 1 1 1 29 2 1 122
Norwood, James 2018: 18 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 21
Norwood, James proj: 18 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 21
Quintana, Jose 2018: 368 89 19 2 14 45 0 5 1 87 5 4 419
Quintana, Jose proj: 384 98 21 2 10 29 2 2 3 88 4 3 420
Rosario, Randy 2018: 99 22 2 0 3 13 0 0 0 16 1 0 112
Rosario, Randy proj: 100 26 4 0 4 11 0 0 1 16 1 0 112
Strop, Pedro 2018: 141 28 5 0 3 14 1 1 1 39 0 0 158
Strop, Pedro proj: 136 27 6 0 2 17 1 1 2 42 1 0 157
Tseng, Jen-Ho 2018: 10 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Tseng, Jen-Ho proj: 9 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 10
Underwood Jr., Duane 2018: 13 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Underwood Jr., Duane proj: 13 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Wilson, Justin 2018: 139 27 7 0 3 27 1 0 0 56 0 1 167
Wilson, Justin proj: 147 32 5 1 3 18 0 1 1 44 4 1 167
Zastryzny, Rob 2018: 21 6 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 3 2 0 26
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 22 6 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 26
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 3226 757 126 15 102 407 14 24 34 787 50 20 3705
PROJECTED: 3296 792 154 13 90 340 17 20 32 796 54 21 3705
difference: -70 -35 -28 +2 +12 +67 -3 +4 +2 -9 -4 -1 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .235 .240
Slugging Average: .378 .377
Walks (per PA): .110 .092
SOs (per PA): .212 .215
On-Base Average: .323 .314
Power Factor: 1.61 1.57
OPS: .701 .691
TPP Runs (to date): 412 396

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 16 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 21 July 2018, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.