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CHC "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 98 34 14 1 2 12 1 0 0 16 1 0 111
Anderson, Brett proj: 102 28 5 0 2 7 0 1 1 19 2 1 111
Arrieta, Jake 2017: 438 106 22 3 16 38 2 0 7 111 16 3 485
Arrieta, Jake proj: 435 97 20 2 11 41 2 2 4 108 14 3 484
Butler, Eddie 2017: 205 50 13 1 4 28 1 1 2 30 4 0 237
Butler, Eddie proj: 207 64 16 2 8 24 1 3 2 30 5 2 237
Davis, Wade 2017: 122 22 5 0 1 16 0 1 1 48 4 0 140
Davis, Wade proj: 125 30 6 1 3 12 1 0 1 30 2 1 139
Duensing, Brian 2017: 162 37 6 1 5 10 0 0 2 49 3 0 174
Duensing, Brian proj: 158 43 8 1 4 13 1 1 1 28 2 1 174
Edwards Jr., Carl 2017: 131 17 1 0 4 25 0 1 1 57 2 0 158
Edwards Jr., Carl proj: 135 18 3 0 4 21 1 1 1 57 2 1 159
Floro, Dylan 2017: 42 15 3 0 2 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 45
Floro, Dylan proj: 42 15 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 45
Frankoff, Seth 2017: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Frankoff, Seth proj: 9 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Grimm, Justin 2017: 139 31 3 0 9 20 0 0 1 42 7 0 160
Grimm, Justin proj: 142 36 8 0 4 15 1 1 1 38 3 1 160
Hendricks, Kyle 2017: 248 61 8 0 9 21 1 2 2 56 7 1 274
Hendricks, Kyle proj: 252 58 11 1 6 16 1 2 3 58 5 2 274
Jay, Jon 2017: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Jay, Jon proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Johnson, Pierce 2017: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Johnson, Pierce proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 7
Lackey, John 2017: 401 106 21 2 25 32 7 3 6 87 9 1 449
Lackey, John proj: 408 107 21 2 12 30 3 3 5 85 10 3 449
Leathersich, Jack 2017: 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 7
Leathersich, Jack proj: 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 6
Lester, Jon 2017: 462 114 23 2 17 38 2 3 2 126 12 11 507
Lester, Jon proj: 458 112 23 2 11 39 3 2 4 114 12 5 506
Montero, Miguel 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montero, Miguel proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Montgomery, Mike 2017: 291 68 14 0 6 38 1 3 6 65 5 2 339
Montgomery, Mike proj: 297 71 16 1 7 33 1 2 6 65 2 1 339
Pena, Felix 2017: 64 18 5 0 3 7 0 0 1 13 2 0 72
Pena, Felix proj: 65 15 3 0 3 7 0 0 1 17 1 0 73
Quintana, Jose 2017: 44 8 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 19 0 1 46
Quintana, Jose proj: 42 11 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 0 0 45
Rondon, Hector 2017: 143 32 7 0 5 16 0 0 1 48 6 1 160
Rondon, Hector proj: 146 33 6 0 4 11 1 1 1 40 4 1 160
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Rosscup, Zac proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Strop, Pedro 2017: 136 27 7 1 3 16 0 1 3 40 1 0 156
Strop, Pedro proj: 134 27 6 0 2 17 1 1 3 41 1 0 156
Uehara, Koji 2017: 125 28 3 1 3 10 1 1 0 36 0 1 137
Uehara, Koji proj: 129 26 5 1 4 6 1 1 0 42 1 0 137
Zastryzny, Rob 2017: 13 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 17
Zastryzny, Rob proj: 15 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3290 785 158 12 118 342 17 16 36 855 79 21 3701
PROJECTED: 3322 804 162 13 88 303 18 21 34 800 67 22 3698
difference: -32 -19 -4 -1 +30 +39 -1 -5 +2 +55 +12 -1 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .239 .242
Slugging Average: .402 .378
Walks (per PA): .092 .082
SOs (per PA): .231 .216
On-Base Average: .314 .309
Power Factor: 1.68 1.56
OPS: .716 .687
TPP Runs (to date): 425 391

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 34 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.