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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CHW "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Avilan, Luis 2018: 154 40 5 2 2 14 1 1 2 46 3 1 172
Avilan, Luis proj: 152 35 6 1 2 16 1 1 2 37 3 1 172
Beck, Chris 2018: 89 24 7 0 5 11 1 0 1 16 0 2 102
Beck, Chris proj: 87 25 6 0 5 13 1 0 1 15 2 1 102
Bummer, Aaron 2018: 133 40 5 1 1 10 0 0 1 35 4 1 144
Bummer, Aaron proj: 126 32 4 1 3 15 1 1 1 32 3 1 144
Burr, Ryan 2018: 36 12 3 0 3 6 0 1 1 6 2 1 44
Burr, Ryan proj: 36 12 3 0 3 6 0 1 1 6 2 1 44
Cedeno, Xavier 2018: 93 19 5 1 1 13 0 0 0 28 0 0 106
Cedeno, Xavier proj: 94 24 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 24 1 0 106
Covey, Dylan 2018: 480 129 17 2 13 52 3 5 2 91 11 2 542
Covey, Dylan proj: 479 135 22 2 21 55 3 4 2 84 13 2 543
Danish, Tyler 2018: 25 8 0 0 2 4 1 0 1 5 0 1 31
Danish, Tyler proj: 24 8 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 30
Davidson, Matt 2018: 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Davidson, Matt proj: 10 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Farquhar, Danny 2018: 28 6 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 9 0 0 29
Farquhar, Danny proj: 26 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 29
Frare, Caleb 2018: 26 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 31
Frare, Caleb proj: 26 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 9 0 0 31
Fry, Jace 2018: 191 37 5 1 4 20 0 2 1 70 2 0 214
Fry, Jace proj: 190 42 6 2 4 21 0 2 1 62 2 0 214
Fulmer, Carson 2018: 132 37 7 1 8 24 2 1 5 29 1 0 164
Fulmer, Carson proj: 135 34 4 1 7 23 1 1 5 30 1 1 165
Giolito, Lucas 2018: 664 166 40 4 27 90 5 1 15 125 26 4 775
Giolito, Lucas proj: 672 164 35 5 31 84 4 1 14 125 21 6 775
Gomez, Jeanmar 2018: 99 29 7 0 3 10 3 1 1 27 2 1 114
Gomez, Jeanmar proj: 102 29 6 1 3 9 1 1 1 17 2 1 114
Gonzalez, Miguel 2018: 60 24 7 2 4 6 0 0 0 5 0 1 66
Gonzalez, Miguel proj: 60 15 3 0 2 5 0 0 1 11 1 0 66
Hamilton, Ian 2018: 29 6 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 5 0 0 33
Hamilton, Ian proj: 29 6 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 5 0 0 33
Infante, Gregory 2018: 33 12 4 0 0 8 1 0 0 6 1 1 42
Infante, Gregory proj: 36 9 2 0 1 5 1 0 0 9 1 0 42
Jones, Nate 2018: 117 28 5 0 4 15 1 1 3 32 1 0 137
Jones, Nate proj: 121 28 4 0 3 12 2 1 1 37 2 1 137
Kopech, Michael 2018: 61 20 5 0 4 2 0 0 5 15 1 1 68
Kopech, Michael proj: 61 20 5 0 4 2 0 0 5 15 1 1 68
Lopez, Reynaldo 2018: 705 165 34 4 25 75 9 0 10 151 14 4 799
Lopez, Reynaldo proj: 708 173 36 5 24 73 9 2 7 148 10 3 799
Minaya, Juan 2018: 177 39 11 0 3 29 0 0 3 58 14 2 209
Minaya, Juan proj: 179 41 10 0 5 26 0 0 4 55 11 2 209
Rodon, Carlos 2018: 442 97 20 2 15 55 2 0 12 90 16 4 511
Rodon, Carlos proj: 447 112 21 2 15 51 4 3 7 113 13 3 512
Rondon, Bruce 2018: 124 37 11 1 1 27 2 0 1 40 6 0 154
Rondon, Bruce proj: 130 34 8 1 3 19 2 1 2 42 5 1 154
Ruiz, Jose 2018: 18 5 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 21
Ruiz, Jose proj: 18 4 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 21
Santiago, Hector 2018: 391 102 24 1 16 60 3 1 5 103 7 3 460
Santiago, Hector proj: 401 97 18 1 16 49 3 2 6 94 8 4 461
Scahill, Rob 2018: 20 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 2 3 1 0 25
Scahill, Rob proj: 22 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 25
Shields, James 2018: 775 190 41 2 34 78 7 2 9 154 18 9 871
Shields, James proj: 796 204 42 5 29 59 4 4 8 177 10 5 871
Soria, Joakim 2018: 152 35 6 0 2 10 0 1 1 49 0 0 164
Soria, Joakim proj: 148 33 5 1 3 12 1 1 1 43 1 0 163
Vieira, Thyago 2018: 72 21 4 0 4 9 1 0 3 15 0 0 85
Vieira, Thyago proj: 72 20 4 0 4 9 1 0 3 15 0 0 85
Volstad, Chris 2018: 196 65 16 0 9 12 3 1 3 29 3 1 215
Volstad, Chris proj: 192 55 10 1 6 17 2 3 2 31 6 1 216
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5532 1405 293 24 196 653 47 18 89 1259 133 39 6339
PROJECTED: 5579 1410 265 29 202 611 43 30 79 1261 119 35 6342
difference: -47 -5 +28 -5 -6 +42 +4 -12 +10 -2 +14 +4 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .253
Slugging Average: .422 .419
Walks (per PA): .103 .096
SOs (per PA): .199 .199
On-Base Average: .339 .331
Power Factor: 1.66 1.66
OPS: .761 .750
TPP Runs (to date): 804 789

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 15 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.