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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CHW "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Beck, Chris 2017: 145 39 9 0 8 16 1 0 2 29 4 1 164
Beck, Chris proj: 141 41 9 1 6 19 1 1 2 27 4 1 164
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 3 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5
Clippard, Tyler proj: 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Covey, Dylan 2017: 157 52 9 1 13 16 0 1 1 22 5 0 175
Covey, Dylan proj: 157 52 9 1 13 16 0 1 1 22 5 0 175
Danish, Tyler 2017: 17 3 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 23
Danish, Tyler proj: 17 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 23
Goldberg, Brad 2017: 10 4 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Goldberg, Brad proj: 10 4 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Gonzalez, Miguel 2017: 369 104 25 3 13 34 1 1 3 53 2 1 408
Gonzalez, Miguel proj: 370 95 19 2 13 31 2 1 4 68 4 1 408
Holland, Derek 2017: 402 111 24 1 24 42 2 1 6 82 7 1 453
Holland, Derek proj: 410 108 23 2 15 35 3 2 3 85 5 3 453
Holmberg, David 2017: 171 41 8 0 8 21 3 0 1 24 2 0 196
Holmberg, David proj: 164 44 6 0 10 22 3 2 4 23 2 0 195
Infante, Gregory 2017: 100 29 5 0 3 12 2 0 1 22 5 0 115
Infante, Gregory proj: 99 27 4 0 3 14 2 0 1 23 4 0 116
Jennings, Dan 2017: 164 35 3 0 6 19 1 0 1 38 2 0 185
Jennings, Dan proj: 162 41 6 2 3 19 2 1 1 35 2 0 185
Jones, Nate 2017: 41 9 2 0 1 6 0 1 1 15 0 0 49
Jones, Nate proj: 43 10 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 13 1 0 48
Kahnle, Tommy 2017: 131 28 3 1 3 7 2 1 0 60 2 0 141
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 121 26 5 0 3 17 1 1 0 38 3 0 140
Minaya, Juan 2017: 72 17 6 1 3 9 1 0 0 28 5 0 82
Minaya, Juan proj: 71 17 6 1 2 9 1 0 1 22 4 1 82
Pelfrey, Mike 2017: 300 75 10 1 11 39 1 0 5 52 18 1 345
Pelfrey, Mike proj: 307 89 16 2 7 28 2 3 4 44 7 2 344
Petricka, Jake 2017: 48 17 4 0 3 3 0 0 0 13 1 0 51
Petricka, Jake proj: 44 12 2 0 1 5 0 1 0 9 1 0 50
Putnam, Zach 2017: 27 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 28
Putnam, Zach proj: 25 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 1 0 28
Quintana, Jose 2017: 399 98 21 3 14 40 2 1 2 109 3 3 444
Quintana, Jose proj: 409 105 22 2 10 29 2 2 2 91 4 3 444
Robertson, David 2017: 119 21 5 0 4 11 0 0 2 47 1 0 132
Robertson, David proj: 117 25 4 1 3 13 1 1 1 42 4 1 133
Rodon, Carlos 2017: 77 18 2 0 5 15 0 0 0 20 2 0 92
Rodon, Carlos proj: 81 21 4 0 3 9 1 1 1 21 2 0 93
Shields, James 2017: 188 51 11 2 12 25 0 0 3 34 3 0 216
Shields, James proj: 198 51 10 1 7 14 1 1 2 44 2 1 216
Swarzak, Anthony 2017: 171 37 4 1 2 13 2 0 0 52 3 1 186
Swarzak, Anthony proj: 170 47 8 1 5 12 2 1 1 30 1 1 186
Ynoa, Michael 2017: 114 28 8 2 4 22 0 0 5 23 2 2 141
Ynoa, Michael proj: 114 25 8 1 2 20 1 1 5 27 2 1 141
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3225 822 163 16 139 359 19 6 33 739 67 10 3642
PROJECTED: 3234 853 166 17 110 327 26 20 33 677 58 15 3640
difference: -9 -31 -3 -1 +29 +32 -7 -14 0 +62 +9 -5 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .255 .264
Slugging Average: .445 .428
Walks (per PA): .099 .090
SOs (per PA): .203 .186
On-Base Average: .333 .333
Power Factor: 1.74 1.62
OPS: .778 .761
TPP Runs (to date): 484 461

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 23 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.