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CHW "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 21 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Banuelos, Manny 2019: 33 7 1 0 1 7 1 0 0 9 1 1 41
Banuelos, Manny proj: 35 9 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 7 2 1 41
Burr, Ryan 2019: 41 9 1 1 3 4 1 1 0 9 0 0 47
Burr, Ryan proj: 40 11 2 1 3 5 1 1 1 8 1 1 48
Colome, Alex 2019: 32 6 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 8 0 0 34
Colome, Alex proj: 31 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 34
Covey, Dylan 2019: 8 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Covey, Dylan proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Frare, Caleb 2019: 10 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 13
Frare, Caleb proj: 11 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 13
Fry, Jace 2019: 26 6 2 0 1 6 0 1 0 7 0 0 33
Fry, Jace proj: 29 6 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 33
Fulmer, Carson 2019: 14 4 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 4 0 0 20
Fulmer, Carson proj: 16 4 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 20
Giolito, Lucas 2019: 68 15 4 0 2 10 1 0 1 23 0 0 80
Giolito, Lucas proj: 69 17 4 0 3 9 0 0 1 14 2 1 79
Herrera, Kelvin 2019: 37 7 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 8 1 0 38
Herrera, Kelvin proj: 35 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 38
Jones, Nate 2019: 32 8 0 0 2 5 0 0 1 9 0 0 38
Jones, Nate proj: 33 8 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 36
Lopez, Reynaldo 2019: 105 34 8 1 7 14 1 0 1 25 3 1 121
Lopez, Reynaldo proj: 107 27 6 1 4 11 1 0 1 23 2 1 120
Nova, Ivan 2019: 90 28 7 0 0 3 0 0 1 14 4 0 94
Nova, Ivan proj: 86 23 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 16 1 0 95
Osich, Josh 2019: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Osich, Josh proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Rodon, Carlos 2019: 104 19 3 1 1 12 2 0 1 35 5 0 119
Rodon, Carlos proj: 104 26 5 0 3 12 1 1 2 27 3 1 120
Ruiz, Jose 2019: 25 12 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 4 0 1 28
Ruiz, Jose proj: 24 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 6 0 1 28
Santana, Ervin 2019: 37 13 5 0 5 6 1 0 0 4 1 0 44
Santana, Ervin proj: 40 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 43
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 668 173 37 3 27 80 9 2 8 165 15 3 767
PROJECTED: 675 171 31 2 25 74 4 3 9 156 13 6 765
difference: -7 +2 +6 +1 +2 +6 +5 -1 -1 +9 +2 -3 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .259 .253
Slugging Average: .445 .416
Walks (per PA): .104 .096
SOs (per PA): .215 .203
On-Base Average: .340 .332
Power Factor: 1.72 1.64
OPS: .785 .748
TPP Runs (to date): 102 94

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 8 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 22 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.