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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CHW "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alburquerque, Al 2017: 27 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 29
Alburquerque, Al proj: 25 5 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 8 1 0 29
Beck, Chris 2017: 252 73 17 0 16 34 3 1 4 42 5 2 294
Beck, Chris proj: 250 75 17 1 12 36 3 1 4 43 5 1 294
Brantly, Rob 2017: 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Brantly, Rob proj: 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Bummer, Aaron 2017: 73 13 2 0 4 15 1 1 1 17 1 1 91
Bummer, Aaron proj: 73 13 2 0 4 15 1 1 1 17 1 1 91
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 38 8 3 0 0 5 1 0 0 12 3 0 44
Clippard, Tyler proj: 39 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 12 1 0 43
Covey, Dylan 2017: 272 83 17 1 20 34 1 1 1 41 10 1 309
Covey, Dylan proj: 272 83 17 1 20 34 1 1 1 41 10 1 309
Danish, Tyler 2017: 17 3 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 23
Danish, Tyler proj: 17 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 23
Farquhar, Danny 2017: 53 11 3 0 1 6 1 1 0 12 1 0 61
Farquhar, Danny proj: 54 13 2 0 1 6 1 0 1 16 1 0 62
Fry, Jace 2017: 31 12 2 1 1 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 36
Fry, Jace proj: 31 12 2 1 1 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 36
Fulmer, Carson 2017: 85 16 0 0 4 13 0 1 2 19 0 0 101
Fulmer, Carson proj: 85 18 1 1 4 13 0 1 3 19 1 1 102
Giolito, Lucas 2017: 163 31 4 2 8 12 0 1 3 34 2 4 179
Giolito, Lucas proj: 160 36 5 2 10 15 0 1 3 29 1 3 179
Goldberg, Brad 2017: 46 14 4 0 2 14 0 0 2 3 0 0 62
Goldberg, Brad proj: 46 14 4 0 2 14 0 0 2 3 0 0 62
Gonzalez, Miguel 2017: 531 145 37 4 16 47 4 2 4 85 7 1 588
Gonzalez, Miguel proj: 533 136 28 2 19 45 4 1 6 98 6 2 589
Holland, Derek 2017: 539 156 31 4 31 75 3 1 8 104 9 2 626
Holland, Derek proj: 565 150 32 2 21 50 4 3 5 116 7 4 627
Holmberg, David 2017: 229 63 14 2 12 34 3 0 6 33 2 1 272
Holmberg, David proj: 225 64 11 1 14 33 4 3 7 32 2 1 272
Infante, Gregory 2017: 199 45 10 1 4 20 5 0 3 49 8 0 227
Infante, Gregory proj: 197 43 9 1 4 22 5 0 3 50 7 0 227
Jennings, Dan 2017: 164 35 3 0 6 19 1 0 1 38 2 0 185
Jennings, Dan proj: 161 41 6 2 3 19 2 1 1 35 2 1 184
Jones, Nate 2017: 41 9 2 0 1 6 0 1 1 15 0 0 49
Jones, Nate proj: 43 10 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 13 1 0 48
Kahnle, Tommy 2017: 131 28 3 1 3 7 2 1 0 60 2 0 141
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 122 27 6 0 3 17 2 1 1 39 2 0 143
Lopez, Reynaldo 2017: 190 49 6 3 7 14 2 0 1 30 0 1 207
Lopez, Reynaldo proj: 185 49 10 2 6 18 2 2 1 37 1 1 208
Minaya, Juan 2017: 159 38 7 1 7 20 1 0 4 51 8 2 184
Minaya, Juan proj: 159 38 9 1 6 20 1 0 5 45 8 2 185
Pelfrey, Mike 2017: 471 127 22 3 25 62 3 0 10 79 26 3 546
Pelfrey, Mike proj: 485 141 26 3 12 45 4 5 7 70 11 3 546
Petricka, Jake 2017: 114 39 8 0 6 6 1 0 1 26 3 0 122
Petricka, Jake proj: 107 30 6 0 2 12 1 1 1 21 1 1 122
Putnam, Zach 2017: 27 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 28
Putnam, Zach proj: 25 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 1 0 28
Quintana, Jose 2017: 399 98 21 3 14 40 2 1 2 109 3 3 444
Quintana, Jose proj: 408 104 22 2 10 29 2 2 3 93 5 3 444
Robertson, David 2017: 119 21 5 0 4 11 0 0 2 47 1 0 132
Robertson, David proj: 117 24 4 1 3 13 1 1 1 43 3 1 133
Rodon, Carlos 2017: 260 64 14 0 12 31 2 1 3 76 12 2 297
Rodon, Carlos proj: 261 68 12 1 8 29 2 2 3 70 7 1 297
Shields, James 2017: 459 116 22 3 27 53 0 1 3 103 9 0 516
Shields, James proj: 473 122 25 3 17 34 2 3 4 106 6 2 516
Swarzak, Anthony 2017: 171 37 4 1 2 13 2 0 0 52 3 1 186
Swarzak, Anthony proj: 170 46 8 1 5 13 2 1 1 31 1 1 187
Volstad, Chris 2017: 69 16 2 0 4 5 1 0 1 10 1 0 76
Volstad, Chris proj: 68 19 4 0 2 6 1 1 1 11 2 1 77
Ynoa, Michael 2017: 114 28 8 2 4 22 0 0 5 23 2 2 141
Ynoa, Michael proj: 114 25 8 1 2 20 1 1 5 27 2 1 141
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5447 1384 275 32 242 632 39 14 68 1193 120 26 6200
PROJECTED: 5474 1427 283 29 195 584 47 33 70 1139 96 32 6208
difference: -27 -43 -8 +3 +47 +48 -8 -19 -2 +54 +24 -6 -8
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .261
Slugging Average: .450 .430
Walks (per PA): .102 .094
SOs (per PA): .192 .184
On-Base Average: .336 .335
Power Factor: 1.77 1.65
OPS: .786 .765
TPP Runs (to date): 835 790

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 45 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.