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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 22 August 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alaniz, R.J. 2019: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Alaniz, R.J. proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Bauer, Trevor 2019: 89 23 4 1 4 8 1 1 2 30 4 0 101
Bauer, Trevor proj: 89 21 5 0 3 9 1 0 1 25 2 1 100
Bowman, Matt 2019: 86 24 6 0 2 9 2 0 0 17 4 0 97
Bowman, Matt proj: 87 22 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 19 1 0 98
Castillo, Luis 2019: 553 112 23 0 18 61 1 6 7 179 6 2 628
Castillo, Luis proj: 561 124 27 1 21 53 4 5 6 164 4 1 629
DeSclafani, Anthony 2019: 481 126 24 1 25 39 2 3 2 127 10 3 527
DeSclafani, Anthony proj: 480 129 26 1 19 34 4 6 3 111 10 4 527
Duke, Zach 2019: 84 21 5 0 4 18 1 1 2 18 4 0 106
Duke, Zach proj: 96 28 6 0 2 8 1 1 1 15 1 1 107
Farmer, Kyle 2019: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Farmer, Kyle proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Garrett, Amir 2019: 165 32 4 0 6 27 0 0 3 65 6 1 195
Garrett, Amir proj: 169 41 8 1 9 23 1 1 2 50 3 2 196
Gausman, Kevin 2019: 25 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 11 0 1 27
Gausman, Kevin proj: 25 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 27
Gray, Sonny 2019: 496 102 17 1 14 53 4 4 4 164 12 4 561
Gray, Sonny proj: 505 119 22 1 13 47 4 2 3 124 6 2 561
Herget, Jimmy 2019: 15 6 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
Herget, Jimmy proj: 15 6 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
Hernandez, David 2019: 173 53 13 3 7 20 3 1 1 53 2 0 198
Hernandez, David proj: 176 42 9 1 6 18 1 1 2 47 2 1 198
Hughes, Jared 2019: 174 41 9 0 6 19 1 3 2 34 3 1 199
Hughes, Jared proj: 176 43 9 1 4 16 1 3 3 32 6 2 199
Iglesias, Raisel 2019: 201 46 11 0 9 20 1 0 1 70 0 1 223
Iglesias, Raisel proj: 201 43 9 0 6 18 1 1 2 62 1 1 223
Kuhnel, Joel 2019: 11 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 12
Kuhnel, Joel proj: 11 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 12
Lorenzen, Michael 2019: 245 56 10 0 8 26 1 2 1 66 4 0 275
Lorenzen, Michael proj: 243 62 12 1 7 27 1 1 3 54 4 1 275
Mahle, Tyler 2019: 404 109 18 1 18 26 1 2 4 106 3 2 437
Mahle, Tyler proj: 389 107 18 1 17 38 2 4 5 97 2 1 438
Peralta, Wandy 2019: 118 29 3 0 7 14 3 0 2 26 0 1 137
Peralta, Wandy proj: 118 31 6 0 4 16 1 1 1 24 1 1 137
Peraza, Jose 2019: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Peraza, Jose proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Reed, Cody 2019: 24 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 25
Reed, Cody proj: 22 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 25
Roark, Tanner 2019: 436 119 23 2 14 38 1 0 9 108 3 0 484
Roark, Tanner proj: 440 110 19 1 13 33 2 3 5 94 5 3 483
Romano, Sal 2019: 33 14 5 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 36
Romano, Sal proj: 32 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 35
Sims, Lucas 2019: 98 17 2 1 6 12 0 0 2 39 3 1 112
Sims, Lucas proj: 96 24 6 1 5 12 0 1 2 25 2 2 111
Stephenson, Robert 2019: 185 35 13 2 7 21 0 0 0 67 1 1 206
Stephenson, Robert proj: 175 44 12 1 8 26 2 1 2 49 2 2 206
Wood, Alex 2019: 102 33 8 0 8 4 0 1 0 21 1 1 107
Wood, Alex proj: 97 24 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 24 1 1 107
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 4210 1013 200 12 169 423 22 24 42 1216 66 19 4721
PROJECTED: 4215 1047 207 12 147 403 28 33 43 1036 54 26 4722
difference: -5 -34 -7 0 +22 +20 -6 -9 -1 +180 +12 -7 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .241 .248
Slugging Average: .414 .408
Walks (per PA): .090 .085
SOs (per PA): .258 .219
On-Base Average: .313 .316
Power Factor: 1.72 1.64
OPS: .727 .724
TPP Runs (to date): 550 541

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 9 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 23 August 2019, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.