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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Tuesday, 18 June 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2019: 32 4 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 9 1 0 35
Bowman, Matt proj: 31 8 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 34
Castillo, Luis 2019: 302 53 9 0 7 44 1 3 5 103 2 2 355
Castillo, Luis proj: 316 69 14 0 11 31 2 2 3 91 2 1 354
DeSclafani, Anthony 2019: 272 71 16 1 14 22 1 3 2 68 6 2 300
DeSclafani, Anthony proj: 273 73 15 1 10 19 2 4 2 62 6 2 300
Duke, Zach 2019: 76 19 5 0 3 15 0 1 2 16 3 0 94
Duke, Zach proj: 85 25 5 0 2 7 1 1 1 14 1 1 95
Garrett, Amir 2019: 114 25 4 0 3 14 0 0 1 44 6 1 129
Garrett, Amir proj: 113 28 6 0 6 14 1 0 1 32 2 1 129
Gray, Sonny 2019: 262 60 11 1 6 27 4 2 1 79 5 2 296
Gray, Sonny proj: 267 64 12 1 7 24 2 1 2 63 3 1 296
Hernandez, David 2019: 120 29 7 2 2 11 1 1 1 42 1 0 134
Hernandez, David proj: 119 28 6 0 4 12 1 1 1 32 2 0 134
Hughes, Jared 2019: 105 21 4 0 3 9 0 1 1 23 2 1 116
Hughes, Jared proj: 103 25 5 1 2 9 1 1 2 19 4 1 116
Iglesias, Raisel 2019: 119 29 8 0 4 14 1 0 0 42 0 0 134
Iglesias, Raisel proj: 120 26 5 0 4 11 1 1 1 37 1 1 134
Lorenzen, Michael 2019: 149 37 4 0 5 10 0 2 0 38 1 0 161
Lorenzen, Michael proj: 143 37 7 1 4 15 1 1 2 31 2 1 162
Mahle, Tyler 2019: 274 71 13 0 12 17 0 2 4 73 3 2 297
Mahle, Tyler proj: 263 71 12 1 11 27 1 3 4 65 2 1 298
Peralta, Wandy 2019: 84 22 2 0 5 8 3 0 1 20 0 1 96
Peralta, Wandy proj: 83 22 4 0 2 11 1 0 1 17 1 1 96
Reed, Cody 2019: 24 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 25
Reed, Cody proj: 22 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 25
Roark, Tanner 2019: 291 76 16 2 5 27 1 0 4 74 2 0 323
Roark, Tanner proj: 294 73 12 1 8 22 1 2 3 62 3 2 322
Sims, Lucas 2019: 26 6 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 9 0 0 28
Sims, Lucas proj: 24 7 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 28
Stephenson, Robert 2019: 99 16 9 1 2 11 0 0 0 37 1 0 110
Stephenson, Robert proj: 93 23 7 0 4 14 1 1 1 25 1 1 110
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 2349 545 110 7 73 233 13 15 23 684 33 11 2633
PROJECTED: 2349 585 114 6 78 225 16 18 25 567 31 14 2633
difference: 0 -40 -4 +1 -5 +8 -3 -3 -2 +117 +2 -3 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .232 .249
Slugging Average: .378 .402
Walks (per PA): .088 .085
SOs (per PA): .260 .215
On-Base Average: .304 .317
Power Factor: 1.63 1.62
OPS: .682 .719
TPP Runs (to date): 274 299

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 25 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 19 June 2019, at 6:58 am Pacific Time.