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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Adleman, Tim 2017: 469 124 34 2 29 51 4 1 6 108 6 2 531
Adleman, Tim proj: 470 122 29 3 27 46 3 5 7 101 6 2 531
Arroyo, Bronson 2017: 294 94 27 1 23 19 2 5 2 45 1 2 322
Arroyo, Bronson proj: 293 78 17 1 11 21 2 3 3 49 2 2 322
Astin, Barrett 2017: 31 9 1 1 2 7 1 0 2 2 0 1 41
Astin, Barrett proj: 31 9 1 1 2 7 1 0 2 2 0 1 41
Bailey, Homer 2017: 363 112 31 0 11 42 2 5 8 67 8 3 420
Bailey, Homer proj: 377 100 19 2 11 33 3 3 4 81 8 3 420
Bonilla, Lisalverto 2017: 144 42 9 2 8 22 2 2 2 28 4 1 172
Bonilla, Lisalverto proj: 144 37 7 2 7 23 1 1 2 30 5 1 171
Brice, Austin 2017: 125 33 4 0 6 7 1 1 3 26 4 1 137
Brice, Austin proj: 124 29 4 0 6 8 1 1 3 28 3 1 137
Buchanan, Jake 2017: 64 24 5 0 1 7 1 2 3 4 0 0 77
Buchanan, Jake proj: 67 19 4 0 2 6 0 2 1 9 1 0 76
Castillo, Luis 2017: 317 64 13 2 11 32 3 4 3 98 1 0 359
Castillo, Luis proj: 317 64 13 2 11 32 3 4 3 98 1 0 359
Chacin, Alejandro 2017: 28 11 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 32
Chacin, Alejandro proj: 28 11 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 32
Cingrani, Tony 2017: 92 25 7 0 9 6 0 0 1 24 1 1 99
Cingrani, Tony proj: 85 20 4 0 3 12 1 1 1 25 1 1 100
Davis, Rookie 2017: 105 38 8 0 7 14 1 2 1 20 5 0 123
Davis, Rookie proj: 105 38 8 0 7 14 1 2 1 20 5 0 123
Farrell, Luke 2017: 36 5 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 7 0 0 43
Farrell, Luke proj: 36 8 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 6 0 0 43
Feldman, Scott 2017: 424 116 20 3 21 35 1 6 6 93 13 5 472
Feldman, Scott proj: 426 115 21 2 13 35 4 2 5 70 14 4 472
Finnegan, Brandon 2017: 46 9 2 0 1 13 0 0 0 16 1 0 59
Finnegan, Brandon proj: 51 12 2 0 2 7 0 0 0 13 1 0 58
Garrett, Amir 2017: 275 74 13 1 23 40 3 1 2 63 4 4 321
Garrett, Amir proj: 275 74 13 1 23 40 3 1 2 63 4 4 321
Gennett, Scooter 2017: 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 7
Gennett, Scooter proj: 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 7
Hernandez, Ariel 2017: 85 14 3 0 6 22 1 0 0 29 6 0 108
Hernandez, Ariel proj: 85 14 3 0 6 22 1 0 0 29 6 0 108
Iglesias, Raisel 2017: 276 57 8 1 5 27 1 1 1 92 3 3 306
Iglesias, Raisel proj: 275 60 12 1 7 24 1 2 4 83 2 1 306
Lorenzen, Michael 2017: 320 78 12 1 9 34 1 2 4 80 3 1 361
Lorenzen, Michael proj: 319 84 17 1 11 35 1 1 5 71 4 2 361
Mahle, Tyler 2017: 75 19 4 0 0 11 0 2 4 14 0 0 92
Mahle, Tyler proj: 75 19 4 0 0 11 0 2 4 14 0 0 92
McGuire, Deck 2017: 53 10 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 11 0 0 56
McGuire, Deck proj: 53 10 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 11 0 0 56
Mella, Keury 2017: 17 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 19
Mella, Keury proj: 17 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 19
Peralta, Wandy 2017: 233 53 12 0 8 24 3 2 1 57 1 1 263
Peralta, Wandy proj: 230 56 13 0 8 27 3 2 2 54 1 1 264
Reed, Cody 2017: 60 11 4 0 3 19 0 0 0 17 0 0 79
Reed, Cody proj: 68 20 5 0 4 10 0 0 1 15 2 0 79
Romano, Sal 2017: 331 91 27 2 9 37 6 6 4 73 2 4 384
Romano, Sal proj: 331 91 27 2 9 37 6 6 4 73 2 4 384
Shackelford, Kevin 2017: 118 30 2 0 6 13 1 0 3 38 0 0 135
Shackelford, Kevin proj: 118 30 2 0 6 13 1 0 3 38 0 0 135
Stephens, Jackson 2017: 91 19 3 0 6 9 0 0 1 21 2 2 101
Stephens, Jackson proj: 91 19 3 0 6 9 0 0 1 21 2 2 101
Stephenson, Robert 2017: 317 81 22 1 12 53 6 5 2 86 4 5 383
Stephenson, Robert proj: 321 84 21 1 15 50 4 3 4 81 3 3 382
Storen, Drew 2017: 210 57 9 1 7 23 3 0 10 48 2 2 246
Storen, Drew proj: 221 53 9 1 5 18 2 2 4 56 3 1 247
Wojciechowski, Asher 2017: 248 71 17 3 14 19 2 5 5 64 3 1 279
Wojciechowski, Asher proj: 248 73 19 4 12 20 3 4 4 62 3 1 279
Wood, Blake 2017: 225 64 11 1 5 29 4 0 1 62 5 3 259
Wood, Blake proj: 224 60 12 1 6 29 3 2 2 56 7 3 260
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5477 1442 315 22 248 631 49 52 77 1300 79 42 6286
PROJECTED: 5510 1416 296 25 226 605 48 49 74 1266 86 37 6286
difference: -33 +26 +19 -3 +22 +26 +1 +3 +3 +34 -7 +5 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .263 .257
Slugging Average: .465 .443
Walks (per PA): .100 .096
SOs (per PA): .207 .201
On-Base Average: .342 .333
Power Factor: 1.76 1.72
OPS: .807 .776
TPP Runs (to date): 861 812

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 49 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.