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CIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alaniz, R.J. 2019: 41 8 2 0 0 4 1 0 0 7 2 0 46
Alaniz, R.J. proj: 41 12 3 0 2 5 1 0 0 8 1 1 47
Bauer, Trevor 2019: 218 57 14 2 12 19 2 3 5 68 6 1 247
Bauer, Trevor proj: 219 52 12 1 7 23 2 1 3 61 4 2 248
Bowman, Matt 2019: 122 27 8 0 2 13 2 0 0 25 5 0 137
Bowman, Matt proj: 122 30 6 1 2 11 1 1 1 26 2 0 136
Castillo, Luis 2019: 688 139 29 1 22 79 1 6 7 226 8 2 781
Castillo, Luis proj: 697 153 33 1 26 68 4 5 6 207 6 1 780
DeSclafani, Anthony 2019: 635 151 28 1 29 49 3 5 4 167 11 3 696
DeSclafani, Anthony proj: 634 166 33 2 24 45 5 8 5 148 12 5 697
Duke, Zach 2019: 84 21 5 0 4 18 1 1 2 18 4 0 106
Duke, Zach proj: 96 28 6 0 2 8 1 1 1 15 1 1 107
Farmer, Kyle 2019: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Farmer, Kyle proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Garrett, Amir 2019: 207 44 9 0 7 35 0 0 4 78 7 1 246
Garrett, Amir proj: 212 52 11 1 11 30 1 1 3 63 4 2 247
Gausman, Kevin 2019: 84 21 4 0 3 5 0 1 1 29 3 3 91
Gausman, Kevin proj: 83 22 4 0 3 6 1 0 1 20 1 0 91
Gray, Sonny 2019: 622 122 21 4 17 68 5 6 7 205 14 5 708
Gray, Sonny proj: 636 148 27 2 16 60 5 3 5 157 8 3 709
Herget, Jimmy 2019: 23 8 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
Herget, Jimmy proj: 23 8 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
Hernandez, David 2019: 173 53 13 3 7 20 3 1 1 53 2 0 198
Hernandez, David proj: 176 42 9 1 6 18 1 1 2 47 2 1 198
Hughes, Jared 2019: 174 41 9 0 6 19 1 3 2 34 3 1 199
Hughes, Jared proj: 176 43 9 1 4 16 1 3 3 33 6 2 199
Iglesias, Raisel 2019: 254 61 13 1 12 21 1 1 2 89 0 1 279
Iglesias, Raisel proj: 251 55 11 1 8 22 1 1 3 78 1 1 278
Kuhnel, Joel 2019: 37 8 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 9 1 0 42
Kuhnel, Joel proj: 37 8 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 9 1 0 42
Lorenzen, Michael 2019: 307 68 12 1 9 28 2 4 2 85 5 1 343
Lorenzen, Michael proj: 303 77 15 1 9 32 1 2 4 68 4 2 342
Mahle, Tyler 2019: 512 136 21 1 25 34 2 2 6 129 3 2 556
Mahle, Tyler proj: 496 135 22 1 23 47 2 4 6 122 2 1 555
Mella, Keury 2019: 16 5 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Mella, Keury proj: 15 5 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 18
Peralta, Wandy 2019: 131 36 5 0 10 15 3 0 2 27 1 1 151
Peralta, Wandy proj: 131 35 6 0 5 17 2 1 1 27 1 1 152
Peraza, Jose 2019: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Peraza, Jose proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Reed, Cody 2019: 24 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 25
Reed, Cody proj: 22 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 25
Roark, Tanner 2019: 436 119 23 2 14 38 1 0 9 108 3 0 484
Roark, Tanner proj: 440 111 19 1 13 33 2 3 6 94 5 3 484
Romano, Sal 2019: 67 22 8 0 4 8 1 0 1 16 0 1 77
Romano, Sal proj: 68 19 5 0 3 7 1 1 1 14 1 0 78
Sims, Lucas 2019: 154 31 7 1 8 19 1 1 2 57 3 2 177
Sims, Lucas proj: 152 38 9 1 7 19 1 2 3 41 2 2 177
Stephenson, Robert 2019: 237 43 15 2 9 24 1 0 0 81 6 1 262
Stephenson, Robert proj: 224 54 15 1 10 32 2 1 2 62 4 2 261
Wood, Alex 2019: 141 41 9 0 11 9 0 2 1 30 1 1 153
Wood, Alex proj: 139 35 6 0 3 10 1 2 1 34 1 1 153
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5396 1270 260 19 214 536 31 36 58 1552 88 26 6057
PROJECTED: 5402 1336 267 16 189 523 36 41 57 1342 70 31 6059
difference: -6 -66 -7 +3 +25 +13 -5 -5 +1 +210 +18 -5 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .235 .247
Slugging Average: .410 .408
Walks (per PA): .088 .086
SOs (per PA): .256 .222
On-Base Average: .308 .316
Power Factor: 1.74 1.65
OPS: .717 .724
TPP Runs (to date): 688 695

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 7 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.