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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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CIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bailey, Homer 2018: 382 118 23 2 20 30 3 5 2 64 6 2 422
Bailey, Homer proj: 379 102 19 2 12 33 3 4 4 80 8 3 423
Blandino, Alex 2018: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4
Blandino, Alex proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4
Brice, Austin 2018: 142 38 9 1 8 13 1 1 3 32 3 1 160
Brice, Austin proj: 143 36 7 0 7 11 1 1 4 32 3 1 160
Castillo, Luis 2018: 514 133 32 0 22 40 5 3 3 129 3 1 565
Castillo, Luis proj: 508 120 28 1 20 44 5 4 4 139 2 1 565
Crockett, Kyle 2018: 44 16 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 11 1 0 46
Crockett, Kyle proj: 41 11 3 0 1 4 0 0 1 10 0 0 46
DeSclafani, Anthony 2018: 279 69 8 1 15 19 1 4 1 64 2 2 304
DeSclafani, Anthony proj: 276 74 14 1 9 19 2 4 2 60 6 2 303
Dixon, Brandon 2018: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Dixon, Brandon proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Ervin, Phillip 2018: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ervin, Phillip proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Finnegan, Brandon 2018: 85 27 5 0 5 15 3 0 0 14 6 0 103
Finnegan, Brandon proj: 89 21 3 1 4 12 1 1 0 21 2 1 103
Floro, Dylan 2018: 142 39 10 1 2 12 3 2 0 27 5 1 159
Floro, Dylan proj: 143 39 9 0 2 12 2 1 1 31 3 0 159
Gallardo, Yovani 2018: 15 8 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 2 2 0 19
Gallardo, Yovani proj: 17 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Garrett, Amir 2018: 205 48 11 1 7 20 1 1 3 64 2 1 230
Garrett, Amir proj: 200 51 10 1 13 25 2 1 2 53 3 2 230
Harvey, Matt 2018: 346 88 17 1 14 21 3 4 5 69 2 2 379
Harvey, Matt proj: 345 85 15 2 10 25 3 4 3 85 4 1 380
Hernandez, David 2018: 169 32 10 2 3 13 0 2 4 45 0 0 188
Hernandez, David proj: 167 39 8 1 6 17 1 1 2 44 2 1 188
Hughes, Jared 2018: 218 47 6 1 2 18 3 1 2 48 6 2 242
Hughes, Jared proj: 213 53 11 2 4 19 2 3 4 38 8 3 241
Iglesias, Raisel 2018: 197 39 6 0 8 15 2 1 2 60 0 1 217
Iglesias, Raisel proj: 196 42 8 1 5 17 1 1 3 59 1 1 218
Lorenzen, Michael 2018: 184 45 7 2 3 22 2 2 1 32 4 2 211
Lorenzen, Michael proj: 186 48 10 1 6 21 1 1 3 40 3 1 212
Mahle, Tyler 2018: 429 120 19 2 21 50 3 5 3 105 2 1 490
Mahle, Tyler proj: 424 117 19 2 18 51 3 6 6 100 2 1 490
Mella, Keury 2018: 37 13 4 0 4 8 0 2 1 8 1 0 48
Mella, Keury proj: 39 13 4 0 4 7 0 1 1 6 1 0 48
Pennington, Cliff 2018: 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
Pennington, Cliff proj: 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
Peralta, Wandy 2018: 145 39 6 0 1 27 1 0 2 26 3 2 175
Peralta, Wandy proj: 150 38 8 0 4 21 1 1 1 32 1 1 174
Quackenbush, Kevin 2018: 39 13 3 0 3 6 0 0 0 7 0 0 45
Quackenbush, Kevin proj: 40 10 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 9 1 0 45
Rainey, Tanner 2018: 32 13 4 0 4 12 1 0 0 7 0 0 45
Rainey, Tanner proj: 32 13 4 0 4 12 1 0 0 7 0 0 45
Reed, Cody 2018: 46 13 1 0 3 3 1 0 0 9 0 0 50
Reed, Cody proj: 43 13 3 0 3 6 0 0 1 10 1 0 50
Reyes, Jesus 2018: 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Reyes, Jesus proj: 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Romano, Sal 2018: 493 132 27 3 21 47 3 3 3 88 7 0 549
Romano, Sal proj: 485 131 32 3 18 49 5 5 4 95 5 2 548
Shackelford, Kevin 2018: 34 13 4 0 0 4 2 0 1 7 0 0 41
Shackelford, Kevin proj: 35 10 1 0 1 4 1 0 1 10 0 0 41
Stephens, Jackson 2018: 123 40 5 3 6 9 0 2 1 23 2 0 135
Stephens, Jackson proj: 122 34 5 2 7 10 0 1 1 25 2 1 134
Stephenson, Robert 2018: 21 5 2 0 0 9 1 0 0 6 2 0 31
Stephenson, Robert proj: 26 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 30
Weiss, Zack 2018: 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Weiss, Zack proj: 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4340 1152 225 21 176 423 39 38 38 951 59 18 4878
PROJECTED: 4318 1115 227 20 162 433 36 40 49 1001 58 22 4876
difference: +22 +37 -2 +1 +14 -10 +3 -2 -11 -50 +1 -4 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .265 .258
Slugging Average: .449 .433
Walks (per PA): .087 .089
SOs (per PA): .195 .205
On-Base Average: .331 .328
Power Factor: 1.69 1.68
OPS: .779 .760
TPP Runs (to date): 638 609

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 29 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.