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COL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Tyler 2017: 101 30 9 2 6 8 0 3 0 22 0 0 112
Anderson, Tyler proj: 102 28 6 1 3 7 1 2 1 23 1 0 113
Chatwood, Tyler 2017: 117 31 4 1 7 11 0 0 0 22 0 2 128
Chatwood, Tyler proj: 112 31 6 1 3 13 1 1 1 19 2 1 128
Dunn, Mike 2017: 26 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 10 0 1 29
Dunn, Mike proj: 25 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 28
Estevez, Carlos 2017: 39 12 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 42
Estevez, Carlos proj: 36 9 1 1 1 5 1 0 1 10 1 0 43
Freeland, Kyle 2017: 81 22 5 0 1 10 1 2 2 14 0 0 96
Freeland, Kyle proj: 81 22 5 0 1 10 1 2 2 14 0 0 96
Gray, Jon 2017: 45 11 3 0 1 7 0 1 0 9 0 0 53
Gray, Jon proj: 47 12 2 0 1 4 1 0 1 13 1 0 53
Holland, Greg 2017: 34 6 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 11 0 0 39
Holland, Greg proj: 35 7 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 13 0 0 39
Lyles, Jordan 2017: 46 16 2 0 3 3 0 0 1 12 1 0 50
Lyles, Jordan proj: 45 13 3 0 1 4 0 0 1 8 1 0 50
Marquez, German 2017: 21 9 3 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 24
Marquez, German proj: 21 7 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 24
McGee, Jake 2017: 27 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 10 0 0 31
McGee, Jake proj: 28 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 30
Oberg, Scott 2017: 40 9 1 2 1 5 0 0 1 10 0 0 46
Oberg, Scott proj: 40 10 2 0 2 5 0 0 1 8 0 0 46
Ottavino, Adam 2017: 34 8 1 0 1 4 1 0 0 12 3 1 39
Ottavino, Adam proj: 35 9 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 38
Qualls, Chad 2017: 7 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 8
Qualls, Chad proj: 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Rusin, Chris 2017: 38 10 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 8 0 0 40
Rusin, Chris proj: 36 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 39
Senzatela, Antonio 2017: 112 25 7 2 3 7 3 1 3 18 2 0 126
Senzatela, Antonio proj: 112 25 7 2 3 7 3 1 3 18 2 0 126
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 768 200 41 9 24 75 6 7 7 169 6 4 863
PROJECTED: 762 197 40 6 19 72 8 6 12 161 9 1 860
difference: +6 +3 +1 +3 +5 +3 -2 +1 -5 +8 -3 +3 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .260 .259
Slugging Average: .431 .402
Walks (per PA): .087 .083
SOs (per PA): .196 .187
On-Base Average: .327 .327
Power Factor: 1.66 1.55
OPS: .758 .728
TPP Runs (to date): 106 101

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 5 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.