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COL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017

About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key: + R * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)

Man	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SF	SH	HBP	SO	SB	CS	BFP
Anderson, Tyler 2017:	304	84	22	2	16	26	2	5	2	76	6	1	339
Anderson, Tyler proj:	308	84	18	2	12	22	2	5	2	73	5	1	339
Bettis, Chad 2017:	157	48	11	2	8	10	1	5	1	26	0	2	174
Bettis, Chad proj:	156	45	10	2	5	13	1	3	1	29	1	1	174
Carle, Shane 2017:	19	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	19
Carle, Shane proj:	19	6	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	19
Chatwood, Tyler 2017:	519	129	25	9	20	75	3	4	2	115	5	5	603
Chatwood, Tyler proj:	527	142	26	4	15	65	4	4	4	94	8	5	604
Diaz, Jairo 2017:	24	12	2	1	0	5	0	0	1	2	2	0	30
Diaz, Jairo proj:	26	7	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	6	1	0	29
Dunn, Mike 2017:	183	42	7	1	8	28	3	0	0	55	3	1	214
Dunn, Mike proj:	185	43	9	1	5	25	2	1	1	55	2	1	214
Estevez, Carlos 2017:	123	38	5	1	3	10	0	1	1	28	0	0	135
Estevez, Carlos proj:	117	31	4	1	3	13	1	1	2	31	2	0	134
Freeland, Kyle 2017:	578	161	29	3	17	62	6	13	8	107	8	3	667
Freeland, Kyle proj:	578	161	29	3	17	62	6	13	8	107	8	3	667
Gray, Jon 2017:	401	107	17	5	9	30	2	2	2	107	8	2	437
Gray, Jon proj:	391	102	19	3	10	34	4	3	5	109	8	2	437
Hoffman, Jeff 2017:	376	99	22	6	15	36	5	3	4	81	2	0	424
Hoffman, Jeff proj:	375	101	22	4	16	39	4	3	3	76	2	0	424
Holland, Greg 2017:	203	38	6	1	7	26	1	0	1	69	3	1	231
Holland, Greg proj:	205	41	8	2	3	23	1	2	0	75	2	1	231
Lyles, Jordan 2017:	193	61	11	1	11	12	1	1	4	33	2	0	211
Lyles, Jordan proj:	189	54	11	1	6	16	1	2	3	32	3	1	211
Marquez, German 2017:	614	168	37	7	24	48	4	4	7	145	6	5	677
Marquez, German proj:	611	171	38	9	23	47	4	5	9	140	7	4	676
McGee, Jake 2017:	209	47	11	1	4	16	1	1	1	58	1	1	228
McGee, Jake proj:	209	46	8	1	5	16	1	1	1	64	2	1	228
Neshek, Pat 2017:	82	19	7	0	1	1	1	0	0	23	1	0	84
Neshek, Pat proj:	76	16	3	0	2	6	1	1	0	21	1	0	84
Oberg, Scott 2017:	228	68	16	2	4	21	2	1	2	55	1	0	254
Oberg, Scott proj:	222	62	13	1	7	26	1	2	4	48	2	1	255
Ottavino, Adam 2017:	191	48	7	1	8	38	3	0	4	60	10	2	236
Ottavino, Adam proj:	207	53	9	1	6	23	2	2	2	57	8	1	236
Qualls, Chad 2017:	66	17	3	1	3	5	0	1	0	11	1	0	72
Qualls, Chad proj:	65	17	3	0	2	4	1	1	1	13	2	0	72
Rosscup, Zac 2017:	30	9	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	10	0	0	30
Rosscup, Zac proj:	26	6	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	8	0	0	30
Rusin, Chris 2017:	308	75	8	1	9	19	3	2	3	70	2	3	335
Rusin, Chris proj:	305	85	18	2	9	23	1	2	3	55	4	2	334
Senzatela, Antonio 2017:	487	124	26	5	18	46	5	4	4	100	4	1	546
Senzatela, Antonio proj:	487	124	26	5	18	46	5	4	4	100	4	1	546
2017 TEAM TOTALS:	5295	1400	274	50	188	514	43	47	47	1235	65	27	5946
PROJECTED:	5284	1397	278	42	166	510	42	55	53	1197	72	25	5944
difference:	+11	+3	-4	+8	+22	+4	+1	-8	-6	+38	-7	+2	+2
Man	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SF	SH	HBP	SO	SB	CS	BFP

Assorted Team Stats:
Stat	Actual	Projected
Batting Average:	.264	.264
Slugging Average:	.442	.427
Walks (per PA):	.086	.086
SOs (per PA):	.208	.201
On-Base Average:	.330	.330
Power Factor:	1.67	1.62
OPS:	.771	.757
TPP Runs (to date):	761	739
Runs differential:
Actual TPP 22 more than Projected TPP.

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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.