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COL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Tyler 2017: 327 88 22 2 16 26 2 5 2 81 6 1 362
Anderson, Tyler proj: 330 89 19 3 12 23 2 5 2 78 6 1 362
Bettis, Chad 2017: 182 52 11 2 8 11 1 5 1 30 0 2 200
Bettis, Chad proj: 179 51 11 2 6 15 1 3 2 33 1 1 200
Carle, Shane 2017: 19 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Carle, Shane proj: 19 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Chatwood, Tyler 2017: 543 136 26 9 20 77 3 4 4 120 5 5 631
Chatwood, Tyler proj: 551 149 27 4 15 68 4 4 5 99 9 6 632
Diaz, Jairo 2017: 24 12 2 1 0 5 0 0 1 2 2 0 30
Diaz, Jairo proj: 26 7 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 29
Dunn, Mike 2017: 189 43 8 1 8 28 3 0 0 57 3 1 220
Dunn, Mike proj: 190 44 10 1 5 25 2 2 1 56 2 1 220
Estevez, Carlos 2017: 133 39 5 1 3 14 0 1 1 31 0 0 149
Estevez, Carlos proj: 129 34 5 2 3 16 2 1 2 34 3 0 150
Freeland, Kyle 2017: 596 169 34 3 17 63 7 14 8 107 8 3 688
Freeland, Kyle proj: 596 169 34 3 17 63 7 14 8 107 8 3 688
Gray, Jon 2017: 425 113 17 5 10 30 2 2 2 112 9 2 461
Gray, Jon proj: 414 108 20 3 11 35 4 3 5 114 8 2 461
Hoffman, Jeff 2017: 388 106 27 6 15 40 5 3 4 82 2 0 440
Hoffman, Jeff proj: 388 107 26 4 16 43 4 3 3 78 2 0 441
Holland, Greg 2017: 207 40 7 1 7 26 1 0 1 70 4 1 235
Holland, Greg proj: 209 42 8 2 4 23 1 2 0 77 2 1 235
Lyles, Jordan 2017: 193 61 11 1 11 12 1 1 4 33 2 0 211
Lyles, Jordan proj: 189 54 11 1 6 16 1 2 3 32 3 1 211
Marquez, German 2017: 635 174 37 7 25 49 4 5 8 147 6 5 701
Marquez, German proj: 633 177 39 9 24 48 4 6 10 142 7 4 701
McGee, Jake 2017: 210 47 11 1 4 16 1 1 1 58 1 1 229
McGee, Jake proj: 210 46 8 1 5 16 1 1 1 65 2 1 229
Neshek, Pat 2017: 85 20 7 0 1 1 1 0 0 24 1 0 87
Neshek, Pat proj: 79 16 3 0 2 6 1 1 0 22 1 0 87
Oberg, Scott 2017: 236 70 17 2 4 24 2 1 2 55 1 0 265
Oberg, Scott proj: 231 64 14 1 7 27 1 2 4 50 2 1 265
Ottavino, Adam 2017: 197 48 7 1 8 39 3 0 4 63 10 2 243
Ottavino, Adam proj: 213 54 9 1 6 23 2 2 2 59 8 1 242
Qualls, Chad 2017: 66 17 3 1 3 5 0 1 0 11 1 0 72
Qualls, Chad proj: 65 17 3 0 2 4 1 1 1 13 2 0 72
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 30 9 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 30
Rosscup, Zac proj: 26 6 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 30
Rusin, Chris 2017: 313 75 8 1 9 19 3 2 3 71 2 3 340
Rusin, Chris proj: 310 86 18 3 9 24 1 3 3 56 4 2 341
Senzatela, Antonio 2017: 504 128 28 5 18 47 5 4 4 102 4 1 564
Senzatela, Antonio proj: 504 128 28 5 18 47 5 4 4 102 4 1 564
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5502 1453 290 50 190 532 44 49 50 1270 67 27 6177
PROJECTED: 5491 1454 297 45 170 529 44 59 56 1235 75 26 6179
difference: +11 -1 -7 +5 +20 +3 0 -10 -6 +35 -8 +1 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .264 .265
Slugging Average: .439 .428
Walks (per PA): .086 .086
SOs (per PA): .206 .200
On-Base Average: .329 .330
Power Factor: 1.66 1.62
OPS: .768 .758
TPP Runs (to date): 785 769

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 16 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.