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COL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Tyler 2017: 304 84 22 2 16 26 2 5 2 76 6 1 339
Anderson, Tyler proj: 308 84 18 2 12 22 2 5 2 73 5 1 339
Bettis, Chad 2017: 157 48 11 2 8 10 1 5 1 26 0 2 174
Bettis, Chad proj: 156 45 10 2 5 13 1 3 1 29 1 1 174
Carle, Shane 2017: 19 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Carle, Shane proj: 19 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Chatwood, Tyler 2017: 519 129 25 9 20 75 3 4 2 115 5 5 603
Chatwood, Tyler proj: 527 142 26 4 15 65 4 4 4 94 8 5 604
Diaz, Jairo 2017: 24 12 2 1 0 5 0 0 1 2 2 0 30
Diaz, Jairo proj: 26 7 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 29
Dunn, Mike 2017: 183 42 7 1 8 28 3 0 0 55 3 1 214
Dunn, Mike proj: 185 43 9 1 5 25 2 1 1 55 2 1 214
Estevez, Carlos 2017: 123 38 5 1 3 10 0 1 1 28 0 0 135
Estevez, Carlos proj: 117 31 4 1 3 13 1 1 2 31 2 0 134
Freeland, Kyle 2017: 578 161 29 3 17 62 6 13 8 107 8 3 667
Freeland, Kyle proj: 578 161 29 3 17 62 6 13 8 107 8 3 667
Gray, Jon 2017: 401 107 17 5 9 30 2 2 2 107 8 2 437
Gray, Jon proj: 391 102 19 3 10 34 4 3 5 109 8 2 437
Hoffman, Jeff 2017: 376 99 22 6 15 36 5 3 4 81 2 0 424
Hoffman, Jeff proj: 375 101 22 4 16 39 4 3 3 76 2 0 424
Holland, Greg 2017: 203 38 6 1 7 26 1 0 1 69 3 1 231
Holland, Greg proj: 205 41 8 2 3 23 1 2 0 75 2 1 231
Lyles, Jordan 2017: 193 61 11 1 11 12 1 1 4 33 2 0 211
Lyles, Jordan proj: 189 54 11 1 6 16 1 2 3 32 3 1 211
Marquez, German 2017: 614 168 37 7 24 48 4 4 7 145 6 5 677
Marquez, German proj: 611 171 38 9 23 47 4 5 9 140 7 4 676
McGee, Jake 2017: 209 47 11 1 4 16 1 1 1 58 1 1 228
McGee, Jake proj: 209 46 8 1 5 16 1 1 1 64 2 1 228
Neshek, Pat 2017: 82 19 7 0 1 1 1 0 0 23 1 0 84
Neshek, Pat proj: 76 16 3 0 2 6 1 1 0 21 1 0 84
Oberg, Scott 2017: 228 68 16 2 4 21 2 1 2 55 1 0 254
Oberg, Scott proj: 222 62 13 1 7 26 1 2 4 48 2 1 255
Ottavino, Adam 2017: 191 48 7 1 8 38 3 0 4 60 10 2 236
Ottavino, Adam proj: 207 53 9 1 6 23 2 2 2 57 8 1 236
Qualls, Chad 2017: 66 17 3 1 3 5 0 1 0 11 1 0 72
Qualls, Chad proj: 65 17 3 0 2 4 1 1 1 13 2 0 72
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 30 9 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 30
Rosscup, Zac proj: 26 6 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 30
Rusin, Chris 2017: 308 75 8 1 9 19 3 2 3 70 2 3 335
Rusin, Chris proj: 305 85 18 2 9 23 1 2 3 55 4 2 334
Senzatela, Antonio 2017: 487 124 26 5 18 46 5 4 4 100 4 1 546
Senzatela, Antonio proj: 487 124 26 5 18 46 5 4 4 100 4 1 546
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5295 1400 274 50 188 514 43 47 47 1235 65 27 5946
PROJECTED: 5284 1397 278 42 166 510 42 55 53 1197 72 25 5944
difference: +11 +3 -4 +8 +22 +4 +1 -8 -6 +38 -7 +2 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .264 .264
Slugging Average: .442 .427
Walks (per PA): .086 .086
SOs (per PA): .208 .201
On-Base Average: .330 .330
Power Factor: 1.67 1.62
OPS: .771 .757
TPP Runs (to date): 761 739

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 22 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.