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COL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Tyler 2017: 252 75 21 2 15 23 0 4 2 63 4 1 281
Anderson, Tyler proj: 255 72 16 2 10 19 1 4 2 60 4 1 281
Chatwood, Tyler 2017: 385 94 20 7 15 60 1 4 2 87 4 5 452
Chatwood, Tyler proj: 394 107 20 3 11 49 3 3 3 70 6 4 452
Diaz, Jairo 2017: 24 12 2 1 0 5 0 0 1 2 2 0 30
Diaz, Jairo proj: 26 7 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 29
Dunn, Mike 2017: 123 31 6 1 7 18 3 0 0 42 1 1 144
Dunn, Mike proj: 124 29 6 0 4 16 1 1 1 37 1 1 143
Estevez, Carlos 2017: 75 25 4 1 1 6 0 0 1 18 0 0 82
Estevez, Carlos proj: 71 19 3 1 2 9 1 0 2 19 2 0 83
Freeland, Kyle 2017: 437 115 19 1 13 44 3 8 8 72 6 3 500
Freeland, Kyle proj: 437 115 19 1 13 44 3 8 8 72 6 3 500
Gray, Jon 2017: 134 42 10 1 3 14 0 1 0 32 2 0 149
Gray, Jon proj: 132 35 7 1 4 12 1 1 2 37 2 1 148
Hoffman, Jeff 2017: 250 65 11 5 7 21 4 2 4 55 1 0 281
Hoffman, Jeff proj: 249 67 12 3 9 25 3 2 3 51 1 0 282
Holland, Greg 2017: 125 21 4 1 2 18 1 0 0 49 2 1 144
Holland, Greg proj: 128 25 5 1 2 14 1 1 0 48 1 1 144
Lyles, Jordan 2017: 182 56 10 1 11 10 1 1 4 31 2 0 198
Lyles, Jordan proj: 178 50 10 1 5 15 1 1 3 30 3 1 198
Marquez, German 2017: 347 92 19 5 10 30 4 2 6 85 4 3 389
Marquez, German proj: 346 96 21 6 10 29 4 3 7 80 5 2 389
McGee, Jake 2017: 147 31 8 0 4 12 0 0 0 47 1 1 159
McGee, Jake proj: 146 32 6 0 4 11 1 0 1 46 1 0 159
Oberg, Scott 2017: 160 49 9 2 3 18 2 1 2 37 1 0 183
Oberg, Scott proj: 158 44 9 1 5 20 1 1 3 33 1 1 183
Ottavino, Adam 2017: 131 33 3 0 7 25 2 0 3 42 5 1 161
Ottavino, Adam proj: 142 36 6 1 4 15 1 1 2 39 5 1 161
Qualls, Chad 2017: 66 17 3 1 3 5 0 1 0 11 1 0 72
Qualls, Chad proj: 65 17 3 0 2 4 1 1 1 13 2 0 72
Rosscup, Zac 2017: 13 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 13
Rosscup, Zac proj: 11 3 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 13
Rusin, Chris 2017: 196 44 5 1 6 14 2 0 1 40 1 0 213
Rusin, Chris proj: 194 54 12 2 6 15 0 1 2 34 2 1 212
Senzatela, Antonio 2017: 381 96 19 2 17 35 5 2 4 75 3 1 427
Senzatela, Antonio proj: 381 96 19 2 17 35 5 2 4 75 3 1 427
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3428 902 173 32 125 358 28 26 38 792 40 17 3878
PROJECTED: 3437 904 176 25 109 337 28 30 44 753 46 18 3876
difference: -9 -2 -3 +7 +16 +21 0 -4 -6 +39 -6 -1 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .263 .263
Slugging Average: .442 .424
Walks (per PA): .092 .087
SOs (per PA): .204 .194
On-Base Average: .335 .332
Power Factor: 1.68 1.61
OPS: .776 .755
TPP Runs (to date): 503 480

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 23 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.