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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 17 June 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Cole, Gerrit 2018: 325 57 13 0 11 25 0 1 3 130 5 3 354
Cole, Gerrit proj: 323 80 15 2 8 23 1 3 3 85 9 3 353
Devenski, Chris 2018: 96 18 4 0 2 7 1 1 2 34 5 0 107
Devenski, Chris proj: 99 19 4 1 2 7 0 0 1 31 3 1 107
Giles, Ken 2018: 96 26 9 0 1 2 0 0 0 24 0 0 98
Giles, Ken proj: 89 19 4 0 1 8 1 1 0 32 1 0 99
Guduan, Reymin 2018: 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Guduan, Reymin proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Harris, Will 2018: 98 26 3 0 2 6 0 0 1 31 2 1 105
Harris, Will proj: 96 22 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 28 2 0 106
Hoyt, James 2018: 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Hoyt, James proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Keuchel, Dallas 2018: 361 96 21 0 12 23 4 1 1 71 3 0 390
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 358 90 16 1 10 27 2 2 2 76 3 1 391
McCullers Jr., Lance 2018: 322 72 20 1 9 34 3 0 3 90 3 1 362
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 322 77 19 2 7 34 2 0 4 95 2 1 362
McHugh, Collin 2018: 110 20 4 0 2 7 0 0 3 41 1 2 120
McHugh, Collin proj: 110 28 6 1 3 8 1 1 1 26 1 1 121
Morton, Charlie 2018: 300 61 12 1 11 33 2 0 8 105 2 0 343
Morton, Charlie proj: 301 80 16 2 7 29 2 3 7 63 7 2 342
Peacock, Brad 2018: 110 22 5 0 5 7 0 0 2 40 1 0 119
Peacock, Brad proj: 105 24 5 1 4 13 1 0 1 28 2 0 120
Rondon, Hector 2018: 96 21 6 0 1 6 0 0 0 31 3 0 102
Rondon, Hector proj: 93 21 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 26 2 0 103
Sipp, Tony 2018: 58 11 6 0 0 7 0 0 0 16 0 2 65
Sipp, Tony proj: 57 12 3 0 2 7 0 1 0 16 1 1 65
Smith, Joe 2018: 70 15 1 1 4 7 0 0 0 20 2 1 77
Smith, Joe proj: 69 16 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 16 1 1 78
Verlander, Justin 2018: 351 56 14 2 8 20 2 1 5 120 3 1 379
Verlander, Justin proj: 345 80 16 2 9 28 2 1 3 88 4 2 379
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 2402 503 118 5 69 185 12 4 28 756 30 11 2631
PROJECTED: 2376 571 114 12 58 206 14 15 25 612 38 13 2636
difference: +26 -68 +4 -7 +11 -21 -2 -11 +3 +144 -8 -2 -5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .209 .240
Slugging Average: .349 .372
Walks (per PA): .070 .078
SOs (per PA): .287 .233
On-Base Average: .272 .304
Power Factor: 1.67 1.55
OPS: .621 .676
TPP Runs (to date): 228 270

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 42 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 18 June 2018, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.