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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Cole, Gerrit 2018: 723 143 36 2 19 64 3 2 7 276 14 5 799
Cole, Gerrit proj: 728 177 35 4 17 53 4 7 8 200 21 6 800
Davis, J.D. 2018: 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Davis, J.D. proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Deetz, Dean 2018: 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 15
Deetz, Dean proj: 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 15
Devenski, Chris 2018: 178 42 6 0 9 13 1 1 3 51 8 0 196
Devenski, Chris proj: 181 36 7 1 5 13 1 0 2 54 6 1 197
Giles, Ken 2018: 126 36 9 1 2 3 0 0 0 31 1 0 129
Giles, Ken proj: 118 26 5 1 2 9 1 1 1 42 2 0 130
Guduan, Reymin 2018: 11 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 11
Guduan, Reymin proj: 10 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Harris, Will 2018: 212 48 7 1 3 14 1 1 2 64 4 2 230
Harris, Will proj: 211 48 8 0 5 15 2 1 2 61 5 1 231
Hoyt, James 2018: 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Hoyt, James proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
James, Josh 2018: 82 15 4 0 3 7 0 0 2 29 1 0 91
James, Josh proj: 82 15 4 0 3 7 0 0 2 29 1 0 91
Keuchel, Dallas 2018: 802 211 48 1 18 58 9 3 2 153 3 0 874
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 801 203 38 3 20 61 4 4 4 167 5 2 874
McCullers Jr., Lance 2018: 465 100 27 1 12 50 4 1 7 142 5 2 527
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 468 110 27 3 10 49 2 1 6 140 3 2 526
McHugh, Collin 2018: 255 45 9 1 6 21 1 1 5 94 2 3 283
McHugh, Collin proj: 258 66 13 2 8 19 2 2 3 64 3 2 284
Morton, Charlie 2018: 610 130 27 3 18 64 4 1 16 201 4 3 695
Morton, Charlie proj: 610 160 32 4 14 60 4 7 14 132 13 4 695
Osuna, Roberto 2018: 81 17 4 0 1 3 1 0 2 19 0 0 87
Osuna, Roberto proj: 81 17 4 0 2 4 1 0 1 25 1 0 87
Peacock, Brad 2018: 248 56 14 2 11 20 1 0 3 96 3 0 272
Peacock, Brad proj: 240 56 12 1 9 28 1 0 2 67 5 1 271
Perez, Cionel 2018: 38 6 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 12 0 1 45
Perez, Cionel proj: 38 6 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 12 0 1 45
Pressly, Ryan 2018: 80 11 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 32 1 0 84
Pressly, Ryan proj: 76 19 3 0 2 7 1 1 1 18 1 0 86
Rondon, Hector 2018: 230 58 14 2 4 20 0 0 0 67 7 0 250
Rondon, Hector proj: 228 53 10 1 6 18 1 2 2 63 6 1 251
Sipp, Tony 2018: 135 27 10 1 1 13 2 0 1 42 0 2 151
Sipp, Tony proj: 132 29 7 1 5 16 1 1 1 38 3 1 151
Smith, Joe 2018: 164 34 5 1 7 12 2 0 2 46 3 2 180
Smith, Joe proj: 161 36 6 1 3 15 1 1 2 39 2 1 180
Valdez, Framber 2018: 126 22 3 0 3 24 0 0 4 34 1 1 154
Valdez, Framber proj: 126 22 3 0 3 24 0 0 4 34 1 1 154
Verlander, Justin 2018: 781 156 31 5 28 37 5 2 8 290 3 4 833
Verlander, Justin proj: 759 176 35 3 20 59 5 3 7 199 9 5 833
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5366 1164 257 21 152 435 34 12 66 1687 60 25 5913
PROJECTED: 5328 1264 251 25 138 466 31 31 63 1391 87 29 5919
difference: +38 -100 +6 -4 +14 -31 +3 -19 +3 +296 -27 -4 -6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .217 .237
Slugging Average: .358 .371
Walks (per PA): .074 .079
SOs (per PA): .285 .235
On-Base Average: .282 .303
Power Factor: 1.65 1.57
OPS: .639 .674
TPP Runs (to date): 540 605

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 65 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.