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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Aoki, Norichika 2017: 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6
Aoki, Norichika proj: 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 53 11 3 0 3 7 1 0 1 18 3 0 62
Clippard, Tyler proj: 54 11 2 0 2 6 1 0 0 17 1 0 61
Davis, J.D. 2017: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Davis, J.D. proj: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Devenski, Chris 2017: 287 50 11 2 11 26 1 0 2 100 12 2 316
Devenski, Chris proj: 292 56 13 2 7 20 1 0 2 89 9 3 315
Diaz, Dayan 2017: 54 17 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 20 5 0 58
Diaz, Dayan proj: 50 17 4 1 3 7 1 1 0 14 3 0 59
Feliz, Michael 2017: 192 53 17 2 8 22 4 0 0 70 2 0 218
Feliz, Michael proj: 195 48 11 1 8 20 2 0 0 71 3 0 217
Fiers, Mike 2017: 592 157 24 3 32 62 1 3 13 146 18 2 671
Fiers, Mike proj: 607 154 31 3 24 50 5 3 6 150 12 4 671
Giles, Ken 2017: 222 44 8 1 4 21 2 1 1 83 4 0 247
Giles, Ken proj: 223 47 9 1 4 20 1 1 1 83 3 1 246
Gregerson, Luke 2017: 241 62 14 0 13 20 1 1 0 70 11 0 263
Gregerson, Luke proj: 239 52 11 1 6 18 1 3 2 66 6 0 263
Guduan, Reymin 2017: 71 24 6 0 1 12 0 0 0 16 1 0 83
Guduan, Reymin proj: 71 24 6 0 1 12 0 0 0 16 1 0 83
Gustave, Jandel 2017: 18 5 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 25
Gustave, Jandel proj: 22 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 25
Harris, Will 2017: 170 37 4 0 7 7 0 0 0 52 2 1 177
Harris, Will proj: 162 37 6 0 4 12 1 1 1 46 4 0 177
Hoyt, James 2017: 195 51 10 1 7 14 0 0 2 66 4 0 211
Hoyt, James proj: 191 47 8 1 8 16 1 1 2 66 3 0 211
Jankowski, Jordan 2017: 20 7 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 22
Jankowski, Jordan proj: 20 7 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 22
Keuchel, Dallas 2017: 534 116 18 0 15 47 0 1 2 125 3 2 584
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 535 134 24 2 14 41 2 3 3 114 4 2 584
Liriano, Francisco 2017: 52 14 5 0 0 10 0 0 2 11 2 0 64
Liriano, Francisco proj: 56 14 3 0 1 7 0 0 1 15 1 0 64
Martes, Francis 2017: 208 51 10 1 7 31 2 0 8 69 3 0 249
Martes, Francis proj: 208 51 10 1 7 31 2 0 8 69 3 0 249
McCullers Jr., Lance 2017: 457 114 28 2 8 40 2 2 11 132 4 2 512
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 456 111 26 3 9 47 2 1 6 136 3 2 512
McHugh, Collin 2017: 246 62 21 0 7 20 0 0 5 62 4 0 271
McHugh, Collin proj: 248 65 13 2 7 18 2 2 3 58 3 1 273
Morton, Charlie 2017: 550 125 39 3 14 50 2 2 13 163 4 1 617
Morton, Charlie proj: 542 146 29 4 12 53 4 7 12 108 12 4 618
Musgrove, Joe 2017: 423 117 22 3 18 28 2 5 4 98 2 2 462
Musgrove, Joe proj: 424 113 25 3 17 28 2 3 5 98 1 1 462
Paulino, David 2017: 121 36 9 0 8 7 0 0 0 34 2 0 128
Paulino, David proj: 119 34 9 0 7 8 0 0 1 29 2 0 128
Peacock, Brad 2017: 485 100 22 2 10 57 0 1 3 161 10 2 546
Peacock, Brad proj: 479 112 24 3 16 60 3 1 4 126 11 2 547
Sipp, Tony 2017: 146 36 10 2 8 16 1 1 1 39 6 0 165
Sipp, Tony proj: 144 32 8 1 6 18 1 2 1 42 4 1 166
Tolliver, Ashur 2017: 17 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 22
Tolliver, Ashur proj: 18 5 1 0 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 1 23
Verlander, Justin 2017: 114 17 2 0 4 5 0 0 1 43 0 0 120
Verlander, Justin proj: 109 26 5 0 3 9 1 0 1 28 1 1 120
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5477 1312 293 23 191 522 20 17 70 1593 102 14 6106
PROJECTED: 5473 1350 281 30 171 513 34 29 60 1459 90 24 6109
difference: +4 -38 +12 -7 +20 +9 -14 -12 +10 +134 +12 -10 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .240 .247
Slugging Average: .406 .403
Walks (per PA): .085 .084
SOs (per PA): .261 .239
On-Base Average: .312 .315
Power Factor: 1.7 1.63
OPS: .718 .717
TPP Runs (to date): 699 694

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 5 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.