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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Cole, Gerrit 2018: 589 114 30 1 14 52 2 2 6 226 14 3 651
Cole, Gerrit proj: 593 145 28 3 14 43 3 6 6 161 17 5 651
Davis, J.D. 2018: 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Davis, J.D. proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Devenski, Chris 2018: 145 35 6 0 6 11 1 1 3 44 6 0 161
Devenski, Chris proj: 148 30 6 1 4 10 1 0 1 45 5 1 160
Giles, Ken 2018: 126 36 9 1 2 3 0 0 0 31 1 0 129
Giles, Ken proj: 118 26 5 1 2 10 1 1 1 42 1 0 131
Guduan, Reymin 2018: 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Guduan, Reymin proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Harris, Will 2018: 174 43 6 1 3 12 1 1 2 55 4 2 190
Harris, Will proj: 174 40 7 0 4 12 1 1 1 50 4 1 189
Hoyt, James 2018: 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Hoyt, James proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Keuchel, Dallas 2018: 627 161 37 0 15 41 8 3 2 119 3 0 681
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 625 157 29 2 16 47 3 3 3 131 4 2 681
McCullers Jr., Lance 2018: 458 100 27 1 12 50 4 1 7 138 5 2 520
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 462 109 26 3 10 49 2 1 6 138 3 2 520
McHugh, Collin 2018: 201 32 6 1 5 15 0 1 5 74 1 3 222
McHugh, Collin proj: 203 52 10 1 6 15 1 1 2 50 2 1 222
Morton, Charlie 2018: 515 108 22 3 14 56 3 1 12 175 3 3 587
Morton, Charlie proj: 516 135 27 4 11 51 4 6 12 111 11 3 589
Osuna, Roberto 2018: 19 5 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
Osuna, Roberto proj: 19 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 20
Peacock, Brad 2018: 200 41 9 2 10 15 1 0 2 81 2 0 218
Peacock, Brad proj: 192 44 10 1 7 23 1 0 1 54 4 1 217
Perez, Cionel 2018: 24 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 7 0 1 29
Perez, Cionel proj: 24 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 7 0 1 29
Pressly, Ryan 2018: 32 6 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 13 1 0 33
Pressly, Ryan proj: 30 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 33
Rondon, Hector 2018: 171 36 12 0 3 14 0 0 0 54 6 0 185
Rondon, Hector proj: 169 38 7 0 4 13 1 1 1 47 5 1 185
Sipp, Tony 2018: 110 25 10 1 1 9 2 0 1 33 0 2 122
Sipp, Tony proj: 107 24 6 1 4 13 1 1 1 31 3 1 123
Smith, Joe 2018: 119 23 2 1 4 8 0 0 1 36 3 1 128
Smith, Joe proj: 114 26 4 0 2 11 0 1 2 28 2 1 128
Verlander, Justin 2018: 625 129 24 4 26 29 4 1 7 223 3 3 666
Verlander, Justin proj: 607 141 28 3 16 48 4 3 5 157 8 4 667
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4148 901 204 16 119 322 26 11 49 1316 52 20 4556
PROJECTED: 4114 986 195 20 102 355 23 25 42 1068 69 24 4559
difference: +34 -85 +9 -4 +17 -33 +3 -14 +7 +248 -17 -4 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .217 .240
Slugging Average: .360 .371
Walks (per PA): .071 .078
SOs (per PA): .289 .234
On-Base Average: .279 .303
Power Factor: 1.66 1.55
OPS: .639 .675
TPP Runs (to date): 416 466

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 50 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.