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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Aoki, Norichika 2017: 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6
Aoki, Norichika proj: 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 44 11 3 0 3 6 1 0 1 13 3 0 52
Clippard, Tyler proj: 46 9 2 0 2 5 0 0 0 14 1 0 51
Davis, J.D. 2017: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Davis, J.D. proj: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Devenski, Chris 2017: 283 50 11 2 11 26 1 0 2 98 12 2 312
Devenski, Chris proj: 289 56 13 2 7 20 1 0 2 88 9 3 312
Diaz, Dayan 2017: 54 17 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 20 5 0 58
Diaz, Dayan proj: 50 17 4 1 3 7 1 1 0 14 3 0 59
Feliz, Michael 2017: 185 52 17 2 8 21 4 0 0 65 2 0 210
Feliz, Michael proj: 188 47 11 1 8 19 2 0 0 68 3 0 209
Fiers, Mike 2017: 592 157 24 3 32 62 1 3 13 146 18 2 671
Fiers, Mike proj: 607 154 31 3 24 50 5 3 6 150 12 4 671
Giles, Ken 2017: 215 43 7 1 4 20 2 1 1 82 4 0 239
Giles, Ken proj: 216 45 9 1 4 20 1 1 1 81 3 1 239
Gregerson, Luke 2017: 234 60 14 0 12 20 1 1 0 67 11 0 256
Gregerson, Luke proj: 233 50 11 1 5 18 1 3 2 64 6 0 257
Guduan, Reymin 2017: 65 21 6 0 0 11 0 0 0 14 1 0 76
Guduan, Reymin proj: 65 21 6 0 0 11 0 0 0 14 1 0 76
Gustave, Jandel 2017: 18 5 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 25
Gustave, Jandel proj: 22 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 25
Harris, Will 2017: 161 36 4 0 7 6 0 0 0 48 2 1 167
Harris, Will proj: 153 35 6 0 4 11 1 1 1 43 4 0 167
Hoyt, James 2017: 188 50 10 1 7 13 0 0 2 64 4 0 203
Hoyt, James proj: 184 46 8 1 8 15 1 1 2 64 3 0 203
Jankowski, Jordan 2017: 20 7 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 22
Jankowski, Jordan proj: 20 7 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 22
Keuchel, Dallas 2017: 512 111 18 0 14 46 0 1 2 117 3 1 561
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 514 129 23 2 13 39 2 3 3 109 4 2 561
Liriano, Francisco 2017: 48 14 5 0 0 8 0 0 2 10 1 0 58
Liriano, Francisco proj: 51 12 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 14 1 0 57
Martes, Francis 2017: 198 50 10 1 7 31 2 0 8 65 3 0 239
Martes, Francis proj: 198 50 10 1 7 31 2 0 8 65 3 0 239
McCullers Jr., Lance 2017: 438 108 26 2 8 38 2 2 11 126 4 2 491
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 437 106 24 3 8 45 2 1 6 130 3 2 491
McHugh, Collin 2017: 201 50 18 0 6 16 0 0 4 48 3 0 221
McHugh, Collin proj: 202 53 10 1 6 14 1 1 2 47 3 1 220
Morton, Charlie 2017: 530 121 36 3 14 50 2 2 13 159 4 1 597
Morton, Charlie proj: 524 141 28 4 11 51 4 6 12 104 12 3 597
Musgrove, Joe 2017: 419 116 22 3 18 28 2 5 4 98 2 2 458
Musgrove, Joe proj: 420 112 25 3 17 28 2 3 4 98 1 1 457
Paulino, David 2017: 121 36 9 0 8 7 0 0 0 34 2 0 128
Paulino, David proj: 119 34 9 0 7 8 0 0 1 29 2 0 128
Peacock, Brad 2017: 465 96 22 2 9 56 0 1 3 159 10 2 525
Peacock, Brad proj: 460 107 24 3 16 58 3 1 3 122 11 2 525
Sipp, Tony 2017: 137 33 8 2 8 15 1 1 1 36 4 0 155
Sipp, Tony proj: 135 30 7 1 6 17 1 1 1 39 3 1 155
Tolliver, Ashur 2017: 17 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 22
Tolliver, Ashur proj: 18 5 1 0 1 4 0 0 1 5 0 1 23
Verlander, Justin 2017: 90 11 2 0 2 5 0 0 1 32 0 0 96
Verlander, Justin proj: 87 20 4 0 2 7 1 0 1 22 1 1 96
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5244 1261 282 23 184 505 20 17 69 1516 98 13 5855
PROJECTED: 5247 1293 271 29 164 492 32 26 56 1397 89 23 5853
difference: -3 -32 +11 -6 +20 +13 -12 -9 +13 +119 +9 -10 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .240 .246
Slugging Average: .408 .403
Walks (per PA): .086 .084
SOs (per PA): .259 .239
On-Base Average: .313 .315
Power Factor: 1.7 1.63
OPS: .722 .717
TPP Runs (to date): 676 665

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 11 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.