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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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HOU "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Tuesday, 25 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Devenski, Chris 2017: 47 7 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 25 2 0 48
Devenski, Chris proj: 45 9 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 14 1 0 47
Feliz, Michael 2017: 27 6 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 6 1 0 29
Feliz, Michael proj: 26 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 1 0 28
Fiers, Mike 2017: 63 18 1 0 6 5 0 0 0 13 2 1 68
Fiers, Mike proj: 62 16 3 0 2 5 1 0 0 15 1 1 68
Giles, Ken 2017: 32 6 2 1 0 4 1 0 1 14 1 0 38
Giles, Ken proj: 34 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 13 0 0 37
Gregerson, Luke 2017: 36 9 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 9 1 0 40
Gregerson, Luke proj: 36 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 1 0 39
Gustave, Jandel 2017: 18 5 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 2 0 0 25
Gustave, Jandel proj: 22 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 25
Harris, Will 2017: 30 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 0 31
Harris, Will proj: 28 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 8 1 0 30
Hoyt, James 2017: 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 5
Hoyt, James proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4
Keuchel, Dallas 2017: 126 22 4 0 4 9 0 1 1 27 0 0 137
Keuchel, Dallas proj: 126 32 6 1 3 9 1 1 1 26 1 0 138
McCullers Jr., Lance 2017: 91 22 3 0 4 6 0 2 2 31 0 1 101
McCullers Jr., Lance proj: 90 22 5 1 2 10 0 0 1 28 0 0 101
Morton, Charlie 2017: 87 25 8 1 1 8 1 0 2 19 2 0 98
Morton, Charlie proj: 86 24 4 1 2 8 1 1 2 16 2 1 98
Musgrove, Joe 2017: 85 25 3 1 4 6 1 1 1 13 1 0 94
Musgrove, Joe proj: 86 23 5 1 3 6 1 0 1 18 0 0 94
Peacock, Brad 2017: 30 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 15 1 0 35
Peacock, Brad proj: 31 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 35
Sipp, Tony 2017: 17 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 4 0 21
Sipp, Tony proj: 18 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 20
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 694 156 29 3 24 59 4 5 8 185 16 2 770
PROJECTED: 694 170 34 4 20 59 4 2 5 176 9 3 764
difference: 0 -14 -5 -1 +4 0 0 +3 +3 +9 +7 -1 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .225 .245
Slugging Average: .379 .392
Walks (per PA): .077 .077
SOs (per PA): .240 .229
On-Base Average: .290 .306
Power Factor: 1.69 1.6
OPS: .669 .698
TPP Runs (to date): 79 82

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 26 April 2017, at 6:55 am Pacific Time.