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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alcantara, Sandy 2019: 91 26 7 0 0 8 0 1 0 19 0 0 100
Alcantara, Sandy proj: 85 21 6 0 2 13 1 1 1 21 0 1 101
Anderson, Nick 2019: 38 9 2 0 2 2 0 0 1 20 1 0 41
Anderson, Nick proj: 38 9 2 0 2 2 0 0 1 20 1 0 41
Brice, Austin 2019: 39 7 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 8 0 0 46
Brice, Austin proj: 41 10 2 0 2 3 0 0 1 9 1 0 45
Chen, Wei-Yin 2019: 38 16 2 1 5 6 0 0 2 9 0 0 46
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 42 11 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 9 0 0 45
Conley, Adam 2019: 37 13 6 1 1 3 0 0 1 7 0 0 41
Conley, Adam proj: 36 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 8 0 0 41
Garcia, Jarlin 2019: 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 7
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Guerrero, Tayron 2019: 31 3 1 0 0 7 0 0 1 12 0 1 39
Guerrero, Tayron proj: 34 9 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 10 0 0 39
Kinley, Tyler 2019: 44 9 1 0 2 7 0 0 1 15 1 0 52
Kinley, Tyler proj: 44 11 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 13 1 0 52
Lopez, Pablo 2019: 81 24 3 0 2 3 1 0 2 23 0 0 87
Lopez, Pablo proj: 79 21 5 0 3 5 1 0 2 18 1 0 87
Richards, Trevor 2019: 103 20 6 1 3 16 1 1 2 28 0 1 123
Richards, Trevor proj: 107 26 6 1 3 13 1 1 1 29 1 1 123
Romo, Sergio 2019: 27 7 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 6 3 0 32
Romo, Sergio proj: 30 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 1 0 32
Smith, Caleb 2019: 81 14 5 0 2 6 0 0 0 29 1 0 87
Smith, Caleb proj: 77 17 4 0 3 9 1 0 1 24 1 1 88
Steckenrider, Drew 2019: 32 6 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 8 0 0 35
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 31 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 10 1 0 35
Urena, Jose 2019: 116 39 13 0 3 6 0 0 1 21 0 0 123
Urena, Jose proj: 109 28 6 1 4 10 1 1 2 20 1 1 123
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 765 193 48 3 26 75 3 2 14 208 6 2 859
PROJECTED: 759 186 41 2 27 81 5 3 11 201 9 4 859
difference: +6 +7 +7 +1 -1 -6 -2 -1 +3 +7 -3 -2 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .252 .245
Slugging Average: .425 .411
Walks (per PA): .087 .094
SOs (per PA): .242 .234
On-Base Average: .328 .324
Power Factor: 1.68 1.68
OPS: .753 .735
TPP Runs (to date): 104 100

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 4 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.