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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alcantara, Sandy 2019: 743 179 43 2 23 81 1 5 8 151 12 2 838
Alcantara, Sandy proj: 732 174 43 2 23 90 2 6 8 156 11 3 838
Anderson, Nick 2019: 168 40 8 2 5 16 1 0 1 69 1 1 186
Anderson, Nick proj: 171 37 8 1 6 13 1 0 1 78 1 1 186
Brice, Austin 2019: 173 37 5 0 7 18 1 0 7 46 2 0 199
Brice, Austin proj: 176 42 7 0 9 15 1 1 5 42 3 1 198
Brigham, Jeff 2019: 145 36 3 1 8 14 1 0 1 39 3 1 161
Brigham, Jeff proj: 138 35 5 1 7 18 3 0 2 35 3 1 161
Chen, Wei-Yin 2019: 280 87 20 2 15 18 2 2 5 63 0 0 307
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 282 75 17 1 11 18 3 2 2 58 2 1 307
Conley, Adam 2019: 248 76 17 3 10 29 1 2 3 53 2 2 283
Conley, Adam proj: 247 65 13 2 8 27 2 3 4 56 2 1 283
Dugger, Robert 2019: 130 33 8 1 6 17 3 1 5 25 0 0 156
Dugger, Robert proj: 130 33 8 1 6 17 3 1 5 25 0 0 156
Gallen, Zac 2019: 131 25 6 0 3 18 0 0 2 43 2 2 151
Gallen, Zac proj: 132 28 7 0 4 16 0 0 2 43 3 2 150
Garcia, Jarlin 2019: 185 40 5 1 4 16 2 1 2 39 1 1 206
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 184 42 7 1 8 18 2 1 2 35 2 1 207
Guerrero, Tayron 2019: 171 42 8 0 7 36 3 0 6 43 2 1 216
Guerrero, Tayron proj: 181 48 9 0 7 29 2 0 4 49 3 1 216
Hernandez, Elieser 2019: 314 76 18 2 20 26 1 3 9 85 1 0 353
Hernandez, Elieser proj: 313 80 16 2 17 29 2 3 6 72 1 2 353
Holaday, Bryan 2019: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Holaday, Bryan proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Keller, Kyle 2019: 36 5 0 0 3 8 0 0 2 11 1 0 46
Keller, Kyle proj: 36 5 0 0 3 8 0 0 2 11 1 0 46
Kinley, Tyler 2019: 181 43 7 0 5 36 2 1 1 46 1 0 221
Kinley, Tyler proj: 182 46 9 0 6 35 2 1 2 47 2 0 222
Lopez, Pablo 2019: 425 111 23 3 15 27 2 4 11 95 1 2 469
Lopez, Pablo proj: 424 109 25 2 15 29 3 3 10 92 3 2 469
Moran, Brian 2019: 24 6 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 10 0 0 29
Moran, Brian proj: 24 6 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 10 0 0 29
Noesi, Hector 2019: 107 30 6 3 7 14 1 1 1 24 0 1 124
Noesi, Hector proj: 111 31 6 1 5 11 1 1 1 20 1 1 125
Quijada, Jose 2019: 113 27 6 1 10 26 0 1 4 44 2 0 144
Quijada, Jose proj: 113 27 6 1 10 26 0 1 4 44 2 0 144
Richards, Trevor 2019: 419 104 20 3 16 51 4 4 5 103 3 3 483
Richards, Trevor proj: 424 106 22 3 15 47 3 4 4 110 3 4 482
Romo, Sergio 2019: 140 33 8 0 4 13 3 0 0 33 5 0 156
Romo, Sergio proj: 144 31 6 1 4 9 1 1 1 43 3 1 156
Smith, Caleb 2019: 573 128 29 2 33 60 5 2 6 168 8 3 646
Smith, Caleb proj: 570 129 30 2 29 63 5 2 5 167 6 4 645
Smith, Josh 2019: 16 3 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 2 0 0 21
Smith, Josh proj: 16 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 21
Stanek, Ryne 2019: 79 17 3 0 4 19 1 0 0 28 2 2 99
Stanek, Ryne proj: 87 19 4 0 4 11 1 0 0 29 2 1 99
Steckenrider, Drew 2019: 52 9 0 0 6 5 0 0 1 14 0 0 58
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 51 11 1 0 2 6 0 0 0 17 1 0 57
Urena, Jose 2019: 338 99 22 0 13 26 2 1 2 62 2 1 369
Urena, Jose proj: 329 86 17 2 11 29 3 3 6 59 2 2 370
Yamamoto, Jordan 2019: 282 54 13 0 11 36 2 0 5 82 6 2 325
Yamamoto, Jordan proj: 282 54 13 0 11 36 2 0 5 82 6 2 325
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5474 1340 281 27 236 615 39 29 90 1378 57 24 6247
PROJECTED: 5480 1323 281 24 222 606 42 34 84 1385 63 31 6246
difference: -6 +17 0 +3 +14 +9 -3 -5 +6 -7 -6 -7 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .245 .241
Slugging Average: .435 .423
Walks (per PA): .098 .097
SOs (per PA): .221 .222
On-Base Average: .327 .322
Power Factor: 1.78 1.75
OPS: .763 .745
TPP Runs (to date): 782 750

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 32 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.