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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barraclough, Kyle 2017: 68 14 2 0 1 14 2 0 0 20 3 0 84
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 69 12 3 0 1 13 1 0 0 28 3 1 83
Chen, Wei-Yin 2017: 102 23 3 1 3 9 0 0 1 20 0 0 112
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 103 27 6 0 4 6 1 1 1 21 1 0 112
Conley, Adam 2017: 113 29 4 4 4 16 1 2 2 23 0 0 134
Conley, Adam proj: 116 29 6 1 3 13 1 1 2 28 1 0 133
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2017: 23 6 3 0 0 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 34
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 30 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 33
Ellington, Brian 2017: 29 9 3 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 1 34
Ellington, Brian proj: 29 6 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 33
Garcia, Jarlin 2017: 53 12 3 1 3 3 1 1 0 14 0 0 58
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 53 12 3 1 3 3 1 1 0 14 0 0 58
Koehler, Tom 2017: 149 44 6 0 10 19 0 2 3 31 3 3 173
Koehler, Tom proj: 153 39 8 1 5 17 1 1 1 31 2 1 173
McGowan, Dustin 2017: 85 19 3 0 2 11 2 2 2 21 1 0 102
McGowan, Dustin proj: 89 22 4 1 3 10 1 0 1 20 3 1 101
Nicolino, Justin 2017: 40 13 3 0 2 6 0 1 1 8 0 0 48
Nicolino, Justin proj: 43 13 2 0 1 3 1 1 0 5 1 0 48
Phelps, David 2017: 83 21 3 0 3 8 0 1 0 24 2 0 92
Phelps, David proj: 82 20 3 0 2 8 1 1 1 20 1 0 93
Ramos, AJ 2017: 51 11 1 0 2 9 0 0 2 17 0 0 62
Ramos, AJ proj: 53 10 2 0 1 8 0 0 1 17 1 0 62
Straily, Dan 2017: 171 28 12 0 6 22 0 0 3 48 2 1 196
Straily, Dan proj: 173 39 9 0 7 19 1 1 2 40 3 1 196
Tazawa, Junichi 2017: 56 12 1 0 4 8 0 0 1 11 4 0 65
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 60 16 3 1 2 4 1 0 0 15 1 0 65
Urena, Jose 2017: 125 31 2 4 3 9 0 1 3 17 0 2 138
Urena, Jose proj: 122 34 7 2 3 11 2 1 2 18 0 0 138
Volquez, Edinson 2017: 153 42 7 2 5 27 1 1 2 41 6 3 184
Volquez, Edinson proj: 159 41 8 1 4 20 1 2 2 36 4 1 184
Wittgren, Nick 2017: 63 17 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 15 0 1 68
Wittgren, Nick proj: 63 16 2 0 2 3 1 1 0 14 0 0 68
Worley, Vance 2017: 17 6 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 19
Worley, Vance proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 18
Ziegler, Brad 2017: 67 22 4 0 0 10 0 2 3 8 0 0 82
Ziegler, Brad proj: 73 18 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 13 1 0 83
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1448 359 66 12 51 189 10 14 24 332 21 11 1685
PROJECTED: 1487 367 74 8 43 153 15 12 14 335 23 5 1681
difference: -39 -8 -8 +4 +8 +36 -5 +2 +10 -3 -2 +6 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .248 .247
Slugging Average: .416 .394
Walks (per PA): .112 .091
SOs (per PA): .197 .199
On-Base Average: .339 .318
Power Factor: 1.68 1.6
OPS: .755 .712
TPP Runs (to date): 210 189

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 21 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.