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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alcantara, Sandy 2018: 117 25 8 0 3 23 2 2 2 30 1 2 146
Alcantara, Sandy proj: 118 27 7 0 4 23 2 2 2 32 1 2 147
Barraclough, Kyle 2018: 203 40 7 0 8 34 1 2 5 60 6 1 245
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 203 39 7 1 4 35 2 2 2 73 6 2 244
Brigham, Jeff 2018: 59 16 5 0 2 13 3 0 2 12 2 0 77
Brigham, Jeff proj: 59 16 5 0 2 13 3 0 2 12 2 0 77
Chen, Wei-Yin 2018: 512 131 31 1 19 47 7 5 1 111 4 1 572
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 526 137 31 2 19 35 5 3 3 107 4 1 572
Cloyd, Tyler 2018: 76 25 8 1 3 10 0 0 1 13 0 0 87
Cloyd, Tyler proj: 78 24 7 1 3 7 0 1 1 14 1 0 87
Conley, Adam 2018: 179 37 11 1 5 18 3 1 1 50 0 1 202
Conley, Adam proj: 176 45 9 1 6 19 2 2 3 40 1 0 202
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2018: 79 22 6 0 1 8 2 1 1 18 0 0 91
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 81 22 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 13 1 0 91
Garcia, Jarlin 2018: 247 59 9 1 16 28 2 1 0 40 5 2 278
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 247 59 10 2 12 25 2 2 2 45 3 2 278
Gonzalez, Merandy 2018: 95 31 3 1 4 8 0 0 0 19 1 0 103
Gonzalez, Merandy proj: 95 31 3 1 4 8 0 0 0 19 1 0 103
Graves, Brett 2018: 132 41 11 0 3 12 0 0 4 21 3 0 148
Graves, Brett proj: 132 41 11 0 3 12 0 0 4 21 3 0 148
Guerra, Javy 2018: 144 42 11 2 4 12 1 2 3 30 0 0 162
Guerra, Javy proj: 140 36 7 1 2 16 2 2 2 30 1 0 162
Guerrero, Tayron 2018: 234 64 11 1 8 30 1 0 3 68 4 1 268
Guerrero, Tayron proj: 234 65 12 1 8 30 1 0 3 66 4 1 268
Hernandez, Elieser 2018: 250 68 11 2 11 27 2 3 2 45 0 4 284
Hernandez, Elieser proj: 250 68 11 2 11 27 2 3 2 45 0 4 284
Holaday, Bryan 2018: 10 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 10
Holaday, Bryan proj: 10 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 10
Kinley, Tyler 2018: 29 6 3 0 0 4 0 0 1 9 2 0 34
Kinley, Tyler proj: 29 9 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 8 1 0 35
Lopez, Pablo 2018: 222 56 15 0 8 18 2 1 4 46 4 1 247
Lopez, Pablo proj: 222 56 15 0 8 18 2 1 4 46 4 1 247
Meyer, Ben 2018: 77 26 8 1 2 14 1 1 4 9 0 0 97
Meyer, Ben proj: 77 26 8 1 2 14 1 1 4 9 0 0 97
O'Grady, Chris 2018: 28 7 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 32
O'Grady, Chris proj: 27 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 31
Peters, Dillon 2018: 111 34 7 0 4 15 1 1 1 17 1 2 129
Peters, Dillon proj: 110 32 6 0 3 16 0 0 1 21 0 1 127
Richards, Trevor 2018: 479 121 26 5 15 54 4 5 5 130 5 4 547
Richards, Trevor proj: 479 121 26 5 15 54 4 5 5 130 5 4 547
Rucinski, Drew 2018: 134 34 8 0 2 13 2 1 4 27 4 0 154
Rucinski, Drew proj: 134 39 9 0 3 14 1 1 4 28 4 1 154
Smith, Caleb 2018: 286 63 16 1 10 33 2 2 3 88 2 4 326
Smith, Caleb proj: 286 66 16 1 11 34 2 2 2 84 2 3 326
Steckenrider, Drew 2018: 242 55 6 2 7 27 1 0 2 74 5 2 272
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 240 55 7 1 7 29 1 0 1 82 5 2 271
Straily, Dan 2018: 452 107 28 0 20 52 3 4 7 99 5 6 518
Straily, Dan proj: 458 109 24 1 20 47 3 4 6 105 8 4 518
Tazawa, Junichi 2018: 85 28 8 0 6 13 1 0 0 24 0 1 99
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 91 24 5 1 3 6 1 0 1 22 1 0 99
Turner, Jacob 2018: 29 13 5 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 35
Turner, Jacob proj: 31 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 34
Urena, Jose 2018: 640 155 28 2 19 51 4 5 12 130 5 8 712
Urena, Jose proj: 631 161 30 4 21 58 5 5 12 112 4 3 711
Wittgren, Nick 2018: 130 29 8 1 1 15 1 1 1 31 0 1 148
Wittgren, Nick proj: 134 34 8 1 3 10 2 1 1 32 0 1 148
Ziegler, Brad 2018: 193 49 7 1 7 17 1 0 2 37 0 1 213
Ziegler, Brad proj: 190 47 8 1 2 18 1 1 2 35 1 1 212
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5474 1388 309 23 192 605 48 38 71 1249 60 42 6236
PROJECTED: 5488 1408 293 28 182 587 45 39 71 1244 64 33 6230
difference: -14 -20 +16 -5 +10 +18 +3 -1 0 +5 -4 +9 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .257
Slugging Average: .424 .420
Walks (per PA): .097 .094
SOs (per PA): .200 .199
On-Base Average: .331 .332
Power Factor: 1.67 1.64
OPS: .755 .751
TPP Runs (to date): 757 758

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 1 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.