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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 22 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alcantara, Sandy 2018: 76 14 4 0 1 16 1 1 2 17 1 2 96
Alcantara, Sandy proj: 78 16 4 0 2 16 1 1 1 19 1 1 97
Barraclough, Kyle 2018: 197 39 7 0 8 32 1 1 5 59 5 1 236
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 196 38 7 1 4 34 2 2 2 71 6 2 236
Brigham, Jeff 2018: 45 12 3 0 1 9 3 0 1 10 1 0 58
Brigham, Jeff proj: 45 12 3 0 1 9 3 0 1 10 1 0 58
Chen, Wei-Yin 2018: 493 124 30 1 19 44 7 5 1 110 3 1 550
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 506 132 29 2 19 33 5 3 3 103 4 1 550
Cloyd, Tyler 2018: 76 25 8 1 3 10 0 0 1 13 0 0 87
Cloyd, Tyler proj: 78 24 7 1 3 7 0 1 1 14 1 0 87
Conley, Adam 2018: 175 36 11 1 5 18 3 1 1 48 0 0 198
Conley, Adam proj: 173 44 9 1 6 19 2 2 3 39 1 0 199
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2018: 79 22 6 0 1 8 2 1 1 18 0 0 91
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 81 22 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 13 1 0 91
Garcia, Jarlin 2018: 242 58 9 1 16 27 2 1 0 40 5 2 272
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 242 57 10 2 12 24 2 2 2 45 3 2 272
Gonzalez, Merandy 2018: 95 31 3 1 4 8 0 0 0 19 1 0 103
Gonzalez, Merandy proj: 95 31 3 1 4 8 0 0 0 19 1 0 103
Graves, Brett 2018: 121 36 10 0 2 11 0 0 4 18 2 0 136
Graves, Brett proj: 121 36 10 0 2 11 0 0 4 18 2 0 136
Guerra, Javy 2018: 133 40 10 2 3 11 1 2 3 28 0 0 150
Guerra, Javy proj: 129 34 7 1 2 15 1 2 2 28 0 0 149
Guerrero, Tayron 2018: 227 63 10 1 8 29 1 0 3 67 4 1 260
Guerrero, Tayron proj: 227 64 11 1 8 29 1 0 3 65 4 1 260
Hernandez, Elieser 2018: 247 68 11 2 11 26 2 3 2 44 0 4 280
Hernandez, Elieser proj: 247 68 11 2 11 26 2 3 2 44 0 4 280
Holaday, Bryan 2018: 10 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 10
Holaday, Bryan proj: 10 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 10
Kinley, Tyler 2018: 19 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 8 2 0 22
Kinley, Tyler proj: 19 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 22
Lopez, Pablo 2018: 222 56 15 0 8 18 2 1 4 46 4 1 247
Lopez, Pablo proj: 222 56 15 0 8 18 2 1 4 46 4 1 247
Meyer, Ben 2018: 74 25 8 1 2 13 1 1 4 9 0 0 93
Meyer, Ben proj: 74 25 8 1 2 13 1 1 4 9 0 0 93
O'Grady, Chris 2018: 28 7 2 0 2 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 32
O'Grady, Chris proj: 27 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 0 0 31
Peters, Dillon 2018: 111 34 7 0 4 15 1 1 1 17 1 2 129
Peters, Dillon proj: 110 32 6 0 3 16 0 0 1 21 0 1 127
Richards, Trevor 2018: 431 112 25 5 15 51 4 4 5 113 4 4 495
Richards, Trevor proj: 431 112 25 5 15 51 4 4 5 113 4 4 495
Rucinski, Drew 2018: 122 32 8 0 2 10 2 1 4 24 3 0 139
Rucinski, Drew proj: 122 37 8 0 3 12 1 1 4 25 4 1 140
Smith, Caleb 2018: 286 63 16 1 10 33 2 2 3 88 2 4 326
Smith, Caleb proj: 286 66 16 1 11 34 2 2 2 84 2 3 326
Steckenrider, Drew 2018: 238 54 6 2 7 27 1 0 2 73 5 2 268
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 237 54 7 1 7 29 1 0 1 81 4 2 268
Straily, Dan 2018: 452 107 28 0 20 52 3 4 7 99 5 6 518
Straily, Dan proj: 458 109 24 1 20 47 3 4 6 105 8 4 518
Tazawa, Junichi 2018: 85 28 8 0 6 13 1 0 0 24 0 1 99
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 91 24 5 1 3 6 1 0 1 22 1 0 99
Turner, Jacob 2018: 29 13 5 0 1 5 1 0 0 2 1 0 35
Turner, Jacob proj: 31 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 34
Urena, Jose 2018: 620 150 28 2 19 47 4 5 12 128 4 7 688
Urena, Jose proj: 610 156 30 4 20 55 5 5 12 109 3 3 687
Wittgren, Nick 2018: 122 27 8 1 1 14 1 1 0 28 0 1 138
Wittgren, Nick proj: 126 32 8 1 3 10 2 1 0 29 0 1 139
Ziegler, Brad 2018: 193 49 7 1 7 17 1 0 2 37 0 1 213
Ziegler, Brad proj: 190 47 8 1 2 18 1 1 2 35 1 1 212
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5248 1332 296 23 187 570 47 35 69 1196 53 40 5969
PROJECTED: 5262 1353 281 28 177 557 43 37 67 1186 58 32 5966
difference: -14 -21 +15 -5 +10 +13 +4 -2 +2 +10 -5 +8 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .257
Slugging Average: .426 .422
Walks (per PA): .095 .093
SOs (per PA): .200 .199
On-Base Average: .330 .331
Power Factor: 1.68 1.64
OPS: .756 .753
TPP Runs (to date): 726 729

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 23 September 2018, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.