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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barraclough, Kyle 2017: 120 26 4 0 2 23 2 2 0 35 5 1 147
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 121 22 5 1 1 23 2 1 1 47 5 1 148
Chen, Wei-Yin 2017: 102 23 3 1 3 9 0 0 1 20 0 0 112
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 103 27 6 0 4 6 1 1 1 21 1 0 112
Conley, Adam 2017: 113 29 4 4 4 16 1 2 2 23 0 0 134
Conley, Adam proj: 116 29 6 1 3 13 1 1 2 28 1 0 133
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2017: 23 6 3 0 0 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 34
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 30 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 33
Ellington, Brian 2017: 54 19 7 0 0 13 0 0 0 18 0 1 67
Ellington, Brian proj: 56 13 4 0 1 9 1 0 1 15 1 1 67
Garcia, Jarlin 2017: 87 17 4 1 3 4 1 1 1 23 0 0 94
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 87 17 4 1 3 4 1 1 1 23 0 0 94
Koehler, Tom 2017: 149 44 6 0 10 19 0 2 3 31 3 3 173
Koehler, Tom proj: 153 39 8 1 5 17 1 1 1 31 2 1 173
Locke, Jeff 2017: 80 20 3 2 2 6 0 0 0 18 3 0 86
Locke, Jeff proj: 76 20 4 0 2 8 1 1 1 14 1 1 87
McGowan, Dustin 2017: 136 28 6 0 3 14 2 2 2 29 1 0 156
McGowan, Dustin proj: 137 34 6 1 4 16 2 0 2 30 4 1 157
Nicolino, Justin 2017: 67 20 5 0 4 7 0 1 1 10 0 0 76
Nicolino, Justin proj: 68 20 4 1 2 5 1 1 1 7 1 0 76
Phelps, David 2017: 129 32 4 1 4 11 1 2 0 36 2 0 143
Phelps, David proj: 127 31 5 1 4 13 1 1 2 31 2 1 144
Ramos, AJ 2017: 92 19 4 0 3 15 0 1 2 35 0 0 110
Ramos, AJ proj: 93 18 4 0 1 14 1 1 1 31 2 1 110
Steckenrider, Drew 2017: 18 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 18 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Straily, Dan 2017: 307 65 20 1 10 27 0 1 4 86 2 2 339
Straily, Dan proj: 301 69 15 1 12 31 2 2 4 70 5 2 340
Tazawa, Junichi 2017: 56 12 1 0 4 8 0 0 1 11 4 0 65
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 60 16 3 1 2 4 1 0 0 15 1 0 65
Urena, Jose 2017: 242 56 8 4 9 24 0 1 8 41 3 2 275
Urena, Jose proj: 242 66 13 3 7 23 3 2 5 38 1 1 275
Volquez, Edinson 2017: 279 64 18 2 7 44 1 3 3 72 10 5 330
Volquez, Edinson proj: 286 73 15 1 8 35 2 3 4 65 7 3 330
Wittgren, Nick 2017: 107 27 5 0 3 6 2 0 0 28 0 2 115
Wittgren, Nick proj: 107 27 4 0 3 6 1 1 0 25 0 1 115
Worley, Vance 2017: 79 24 12 1 2 6 0 1 2 13 0 0 88
Worley, Vance proj: 79 22 5 0 2 7 1 1 1 15 0 0 89
Ziegler, Brad 2017: 117 40 6 0 1 13 0 3 5 17 1 0 138
Ziegler, Brad proj: 123 30 5 1 1 12 1 1 1 23 1 0 138
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2357 579 123 17 74 275 12 22 36 554 34 16 2702
PROJECTED: 2383 589 118 14 66 251 24 19 29 538 35 14 2706
difference: -26 -10 +5 +3 +8 +24 -12 +3 +7 +16 -1 +2 -4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .246 .247
Slugging Average: .406 .392
Walks (per PA): .102 .093
SOs (per PA): .205 .199
On-Base Average: .329 .321
Power Factor: 1.65 1.58
OPS: .736 .713
TPP Runs (to date): 320 303

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 17 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.