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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barraclough, Kyle 2017: 239 53 6 0 5 38 4 3 2 76 5 1 286
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 238 46 8 1 3 41 3 2 2 91 7 2 286
Cervenka, Hunter 2017: 12 1 0 0 0 8 1 1 2 6 0 0 24
Cervenka, Hunter proj: 19 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 1 0 23
Chen, Wei-Yin 2017: 121 25 4 2 3 9 1 0 1 25 0 0 132
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 122 32 7 1 4 8 1 1 1 25 1 0 133
Conley, Adam 2017: 403 114 17 5 19 42 2 8 8 72 0 0 463
Conley, Adam proj: 403 106 20 3 14 44 3 6 8 89 4 1 464
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2017: 223 57 11 1 3 24 2 2 3 31 2 0 254
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 226 61 11 2 5 20 2 3 3 34 3 1 254
Ellington, Brian 2017: 178 48 14 0 7 35 0 0 6 48 2 2 219
Ellington, Brian proj: 182 43 13 0 5 30 1 0 5 46 4 2 218
Garcia, Jarlin 2017: 200 47 9 2 6 17 2 2 4 42 1 2 225
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 200 47 9 2 6 17 2 2 4 42 1 2 225
Guerra, Javy 2017: 80 23 4 0 2 7 0 1 0 12 0 0 88
Guerra, Javy proj: 75 19 3 0 1 9 1 1 1 16 0 0 87
Koehler, Tom 2017: 222 67 9 0 15 29 0 3 5 44 5 3 259
Koehler, Tom proj: 229 59 11 2 7 25 1 2 2 46 3 2 259
Locke, Jeff 2017: 135 42 6 3 4 15 2 0 0 26 5 0 152
Locke, Jeff proj: 134 36 7 1 4 14 1 2 1 25 3 1 152
McGowan, Dustin 2017: 294 77 16 1 13 27 3 4 2 64 3 1 330
McGowan, Dustin proj: 290 72 14 2 9 33 3 1 3 63 9 2 330
Nicolino, Justin 2017: 204 66 12 2 8 20 1 3 1 26 2 0 229
Nicolino, Justin proj: 206 61 11 2 6 16 3 3 2 22 3 1 230
O'Grady, Chris 2017: 123 33 7 2 4 18 1 2 1 30 1 1 145
O'Grady, Chris proj: 123 33 7 2 4 18 1 2 1 30 1 1 145
Peters, Dillon 2017: 118 32 5 0 3 19 0 0 2 27 0 1 139
Peters, Dillon proj: 118 32 5 0 3 19 0 0 2 27 0 1 139
Phelps, David 2017: 173 42 6 1 5 21 1 2 0 51 2 1 197
Phelps, David proj: 174 43 7 1 5 18 1 1 2 43 2 1 196
Ramos, AJ 2017: 146 30 4 1 4 22 0 1 2 47 1 0 171
Ramos, AJ proj: 145 29 6 0 2 22 1 1 2 47 2 1 171
Steckenrider, Drew 2017: 132 30 5 0 4 18 1 0 0 54 2 1 151
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 132 30 5 0 4 18 1 0 0 54 2 1 151
Straily, Dan 2017: 687 176 41 5 31 60 7 10 5 170 10 6 769
Straily, Dan proj: 682 163 35 3 29 68 5 6 8 158 12 6 769
Tazawa, Junichi 2017: 211 55 10 1 8 22 1 2 2 38 4 0 238
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 219 58 11 2 6 14 2 1 2 53 4 1 238
Urena, Jose 2017: 638 152 25 5 26 64 3 5 14 113 5 2 724
Urena, Jose proj: 637 167 32 5 22 62 6 6 12 105 3 1 723
Volquez, Edinson 2017: 331 78 19 2 8 53 5 5 3 81 12 5 397
Volquez, Edinson proj: 343 88 18 2 9 43 3 3 4 78 9 3 396
Wittgren, Nick 2017: 166 46 14 2 5 13 3 0 0 43 0 2 182
Wittgren, Nick proj: 167 44 10 1 5 11 2 1 0 39 0 1 181
Worley, Vance 2017: 292 99 26 2 9 30 3 2 6 50 3 2 333
Worley, Vance proj: 298 85 18 1 8 25 2 4 3 57 2 2 332
Ziegler, Brad 2017: 186 57 10 0 1 16 0 3 6 26 2 0 211
Ziegler, Brad proj: 188 47 8 1 2 18 1 2 2 34 2 1 211
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5514 1450 280 37 193 627 43 59 75 1202 67 30 6318
PROJECTED: 5550 1405 277 34 163 597 46 50 70 1230 78 34 6313
difference: -36 +45 +3 +3 +30 +30 -3 +9 +5 -28 -11 -4 +5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .263 .253
Slugging Average: .432 .403
Walks (per PA): .099 .094
SOs (per PA): .190 .195
On-Base Average: .341 .328
Power Factor: 1.64 1.59
OPS: .773 .732
TPP Runs (to date): 814 740

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 74 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.