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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 23 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barraclough, Kyle 2017: 167 39 5 0 3 30 3 2 1 49 5 1 203
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 168 32 6 1 2 31 2 1 1 64 6 2 203
Chen, Wei-Yin 2017: 102 23 3 1 3 9 0 0 1 20 0 0 112
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 103 27 6 0 4 6 1 1 1 21 1 0 112
Conley, Adam 2017: 137 37 5 4 4 18 1 2 2 26 0 0 160
Conley, Adam proj: 139 35 7 1 4 16 1 2 2 33 2 0 160
Despaigne, Odrisamer 2017: 23 6 3 0 0 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 34
Despaigne, Odrisamer proj: 30 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 33
Ellington, Brian 2017: 56 19 7 0 0 13 0 0 1 18 0 1 70
Ellington, Brian proj: 59 14 5 0 1 9 1 0 1 15 1 1 70
Garcia, Jarlin 2017: 119 23 6 1 5 9 1 1 2 26 0 0 132
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 119 23 6 1 5 9 1 1 2 26 0 0 132
Koehler, Tom 2017: 222 67 9 0 15 29 0 3 5 44 5 3 259
Koehler, Tom proj: 229 59 11 1 7 25 1 2 2 46 3 2 259
Locke, Jeff 2017: 135 42 6 3 4 15 2 0 0 26 5 0 152
Locke, Jeff proj: 134 36 7 1 4 14 1 2 1 25 3 1 152
McGowan, Dustin 2017: 185 41 10 0 5 17 2 3 2 42 2 1 209
McGowan, Dustin proj: 184 45 9 1 5 21 2 0 2 40 6 1 209
Nicolino, Justin 2017: 87 29 6 0 5 8 0 2 1 14 0 0 98
Nicolino, Justin proj: 88 26 5 1 3 6 1 1 1 10 1 0 97
O'Grady, Chris 2017: 55 14 3 2 2 10 1 0 0 16 1 1 66
O'Grady, Chris proj: 55 14 3 2 2 10 1 0 0 16 1 1 66
Phelps, David 2017: 173 42 6 1 5 21 1 2 0 51 2 1 197
Phelps, David proj: 175 43 7 1 5 18 1 1 2 43 2 1 197
Ramos, AJ 2017: 136 27 4 1 4 20 0 1 2 46 0 0 159
Ramos, AJ proj: 135 26 5 0 2 20 1 1 2 44 2 1 159
Steckenrider, Drew 2017: 34 11 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 38
Steckenrider, Drew proj: 34 11 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 38
Straily, Dan 2017: 419 96 26 2 16 32 3 2 4 105 3 4 460
Straily, Dan proj: 409 94 21 1 17 41 3 3 5 94 7 3 461
Tazawa, Junichi 2017: 105 22 3 1 5 13 0 1 2 22 4 0 121
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 112 29 6 1 3 7 1 0 1 28 2 0 121
Urena, Jose 2017: 359 85 14 4 14 35 2 2 11 65 3 2 409
Urena, Jose proj: 359 96 19 3 12 34 4 3 8 58 2 1 408
Volquez, Edinson 2017: 331 78 19 2 8 53 5 5 3 81 12 5 397
Volquez, Edinson proj: 343 88 18 2 9 43 3 3 4 78 9 3 396
Wittgren, Nick 2017: 161 43 12 2 5 11 3 0 0 43 0 2 175
Wittgren, Nick proj: 161 42 9 1 5 9 2 1 0 38 0 1 173
Worley, Vance 2017: 119 38 17 2 2 9 1 1 2 26 0 0 132
Worley, Vance proj: 119 33 7 0 3 10 1 2 1 23 1 1 133
Ziegler, Brad 2017: 117 40 6 0 1 13 0 3 5 17 1 0 138
Ziegler, Brad proj: 123 30 5 1 1 12 1 1 1 23 1 0 138
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3242 822 172 26 106 377 27 30 45 750 43 21 3721
PROJECTED: 3278 811 166 19 95 348 29 25 37 739 50 19 3717
difference: -36 +11 +6 +7 +11 +29 -2 +5 +8 +11 -7 +2 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .247
Slugging Average: .421 .397
Walks (per PA): .101 .094
SOs (per PA): .202 .199
On-Base Average: .334 .322
Power Factor: 1.66 1.6
OPS: .755 .718
TPP Runs (to date): 458 422

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 36 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 24 July 2017, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.