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MIA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Tuesday, 25 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barraclough, Kyle 2017: 38 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 12 2 0 42
Barraclough, Kyle proj: 35 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 15 1 0 41
Chen, Wei-Yin 2017: 61 14 2 1 2 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 65
Chen, Wei-Yin proj: 60 16 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 12 0 0 65
Conley, Adam 2017: 64 13 1 2 2 7 1 2 0 14 0 0 74
Conley, Adam proj: 64 16 3 0 2 7 1 1 1 16 1 0 74
Garcia, Jarlin 2017: 7 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 10
Garcia, Jarlin proj: 7 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 10
Koehler, Tom 2017: 78 22 3 0 6 10 0 2 0 17 2 2 90
Koehler, Tom proj: 80 20 4 1 2 9 0 1 1 16 1 1 91
McGowan, Dustin 2017: 32 7 1 0 0 4 1 1 1 9 0 0 39
McGowan, Dustin proj: 34 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 38
Phelps, David 2017: 48 17 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 13 1 0 50
Phelps, David proj: 44 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 11 1 0 49
Ramos, AJ 2017: 28 5 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 0 34
Ramos, AJ proj: 29 6 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 33
Straily, Dan 2017: 73 13 4 0 3 9 0 0 1 24 2 0 83
Straily, Dan proj: 73 17 4 0 3 8 0 0 1 17 1 1 82
Tazawa, Junichi 2017: 25 6 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 29
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 27 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 29
Urena, Jose 2017: 28 4 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 5 0 0 29
Urena, Jose proj: 26 7 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 28
Volquez, Edinson 2017: 74 21 5 0 3 10 1 0 0 21 2 1 85
Volquez, Edinson proj: 74 19 4 0 2 9 1 1 1 17 2 1 86
Wittgren, Nick 2017: 23 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 0 1 25
Wittgren, Nick proj: 23 6 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Ziegler, Brad 2017: 33 6 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 6 0 0 37
Ziegler, Brad proj: 33 8 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 36
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 612 140 21 3 26 66 3 8 3 154 9 4 692
PROJECTED: 609 147 29 1 16 65 3 4 5 145 9 3 686
difference: +3 -7 -8 +2 +10 +1 0 +4 -2 +9 0 +1 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .229 .241
Slugging Average: .400 .371
Walks (per PA): .095 .094
SOs (per PA): .223 .210
On-Base Average: .302 .316
Power Factor: 1.75 1.54
OPS: .702 .687
TPP Runs (to date): 77 73

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 4 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 26 April 2017, at 6:55 am Pacific Time.