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MIL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 21 July 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Albers, Matt 2018: 105 26 1 1 5 7 3 0 2 25 3 1 117
Albers, Matt proj: 103 27 5 0 3 11 1 1 1 20 2 1 117
Anderson, Chase 2018: 393 88 10 1 19 42 1 2 6 87 8 5 444
Anderson, Chase proj: 400 101 20 3 15 34 3 3 4 89 5 4 444
Asher, Alec 2018: 12 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Asher, Alec proj: 12 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Barnes, Jacob 2018: 149 41 4 2 2 17 0 1 0 37 4 0 167
Barnes, Jacob proj: 148 35 7 1 3 16 1 1 1 41 3 1 167
Burnes, Corbin 2018: 19 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 8 0 0 21
Burnes, Corbin proj: 19 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 8 0 0 21
Chacin, Jhoulys 2018: 422 98 19 4 8 47 7 4 7 88 5 3 487
Chacin, Jhoulys proj: 429 105 22 3 11 47 4 3 5 90 4 3 488
Davies, Zach 2018: 165 45 9 3 7 17 4 0 4 31 0 3 190
Davies, Zach proj: 173 46 8 2 5 13 1 1 2 33 2 2 190
Drake, Oliver 2018: 49 14 6 0 0 8 0 1 0 15 0 0 58
Drake, Oliver proj: 51 14 3 1 1 6 0 1 0 14 0 0 58
Guerra, Junior 2018: 365 86 22 0 11 39 2 4 4 96 8 1 414
Guerra, Junior proj: 364 83 17 2 13 42 2 3 4 89 5 2 415
Hader, Josh 2018: 163 20 3 0 4 19 1 1 0 93 1 1 184
Hader, Josh proj: 160 22 5 0 4 20 1 1 2 80 1 1 184
Hoover, J.J. 2018: 8 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Hoover, J.J. proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Houser, Adrian 2018: 40 10 3 1 0 5 0 0 1 7 0 0 46
Houser, Adrian proj: 39 9 3 1 0 6 0 0 1 6 0 0 46
Jeffress, Jeremy 2018: 162 29 4 2 3 13 1 1 0 50 1 1 177
Jeffress, Jeremy proj: 156 39 7 1 3 17 1 2 1 37 1 1 177
Jennings, Dan 2018: 178 47 12 1 4 17 2 2 0 37 1 1 199
Jennings, Dan proj: 174 44 7 2 3 20 2 1 1 37 2 1 198
Knebel, Corey 2018: 93 20 1 1 5 12 0 0 2 36 5 4 107
Knebel, Corey proj: 94 21 4 1 3 12 0 0 1 36 3 1 107
Kratz, Erik 2018: 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 6
Kratz, Erik proj: 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Logan, Boone 2018: 46 15 4 0 3 10 0 1 1 14 0 0 58
Logan, Boone proj: 50 13 3 0 2 6 1 1 1 14 1 0 59
Lopez, Jorge 2018: 62 16 2 1 1 13 1 0 0 14 1 1 76
Lopez, Jorge proj: 64 20 2 1 1 11 1 0 1 14 1 1 77
Miley, Wade 2018: 63 12 3 0 0 11 0 0 1 11 1 0 75
Miley, Wade proj: 68 18 4 0 2 6 0 0 0 14 0 0 74
Peralta, Freddy 2018: 125 18 6 1 2 18 1 0 1 50 1 1 145
Peralta, Freddy proj: 125 18 6 1 2 18 1 0 1 50 1 1 145
Perez, Hernan 2018: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Perez, Hernan proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Suter, Brent 2018: 379 95 14 4 16 19 1 4 4 81 1 0 407
Suter, Brent proj: 377 98 13 3 13 22 1 3 3 78 1 1 406
Wilkerson, Aaron 2018: 39 12 1 0 4 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 43
Wilkerson, Aaron proj: 40 10 2 1 3 2 0 0 1 9 0 0 43
Williams, Taylor 2018: 140 29 5 0 3 18 0 3 1 44 1 0 162
Williams, Taylor proj: 141 29 6 0 3 18 0 3 1 43 1 0 163
Woodruff, Brandon 2018: 107 24 2 1 4 10 1 0 1 30 2 0 119
Woodruff, Brandon proj: 107 26 4 0 4 9 0 0 2 24 2 1 118
Zagurski, Mike 2018: 8 5 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Zagurski, Mike proj: 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 3297 760 133 25 102 353 26 24 36 869 43 22 3736
PROJECTED: 3317 789 149 23 94 341 20 24 33 833 35 21 3735
difference: -20 -29 -16 +2 +8 +12 +6 0 +3 +36 +8 +1 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .231 .238
Slugging Average: .379 .382
Walks (per PA): .094 .091
SOs (per PA): .233 .223
On-Base Average: .308 .311
Power Factor: 1.64 1.6
OPS: .686 .693
TPP Runs (to date): 394 397

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 23 July 2018, at 7:00 am Pacific Time.