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MIL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Chase 2017: 86 19 7 0 1 6 0 3 1 22 1 0 96
Anderson, Chase proj: 87 23 5 1 3 7 1 1 1 18 1 1 97
Barnes, Jacob 2017: 41 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 14 0 0 46
Barnes, Jacob proj: 42 8 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 12 0 0 45
Davies, Zach 2017: 106 35 9 3 3 11 0 2 0 22 3 1 119
Davies, Zach proj: 109 29 6 1 3 8 1 1 1 23 1 1 120
Drake, Oliver 2017: 29 8 2 1 0 5 0 1 0 10 0 0 35
Drake, Oliver proj: 30 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 34
Feliz, Neftali 2017: 29 5 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 32
Feliz, Neftali proj: 28 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 31
Garza, Matt 2017: 17 4 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 4 2 0 20
Garza, Matt proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Goforth, David 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Goforth, David proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Guerra, Junior 2017: 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 11
Guerra, Junior proj: 10 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Hughes, Jared 2017: 40 13 5 1 0 6 0 0 0 4 3 1 46
Hughes, Jared proj: 40 10 2 0 1 4 0 1 1 7 2 1 46
Jungmann, Taylor 2017: 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 6
Jungmann, Taylor proj: 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
Knebel, Corey 2017: 36 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 15 3 0 42
Knebel, Corey proj: 38 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 12 1 0 42
Marinez, Jhan 2017: 39 11 4 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 0 0 48
Marinez, Jhan proj: 42 11 3 0 1 5 0 0 1 9 1 0 48
Milone, Tommy 2017: 79 23 5 0 4 2 0 0 0 15 0 0 81
Milone, Tommy proj: 75 20 4 0 3 5 1 0 0 14 1 1 81
Nelson, Jimmy 2017: 90 23 3 0 3 9 1 1 1 21 4 2 102
Nelson, Jimmy proj: 89 23 4 0 3 9 1 1 2 19 3 1 102
Peralta, Wily 2017: 98 28 7 0 6 11 2 1 1 20 0 3 113
Peralta, Wily proj: 101 28 5 0 3 9 1 1 1 19 2 1 113
Suter, Brent 2017: 28 9 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 0 0 33
Suter, Brent proj: 30 9 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 33
Torres, Carlos 2017: 51 13 2 1 2 8 0 1 0 8 1 0 60
Torres, Carlos proj: 53 13 3 0 2 5 0 1 1 13 1 0 60
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 786 204 51 7 24 89 3 9 7 183 17 7 894
PROJECTED: 801 205 41 2 24 72 5 6 9 176 13 6 893
difference: -15 -1 +10 +5 0 +17 -2 +3 -2 +7 +4 +1 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .260 .256
Slugging Average: .434 .402
Walks (per PA): .100 .081
SOs (per PA): .205 .197
On-Base Average: .336 .320
Power Factor: 1.67 1.57
OPS: .769 .722
TPP Runs (to date): 114 102

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 12 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.