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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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MIL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Albers, Matt 2018: 140 45 3 2 10 12 3 0 2 32 3 1 157
Albers, Matt proj: 138 36 6 1 4 15 1 1 2 27 3 1 157
Anderson, Chase 2018: 575 131 20 2 30 57 1 4 7 128 10 8 644
Anderson, Chase proj: 580 145 30 4 23 50 4 4 6 129 8 5 644
Asher, Alec 2018: 12 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Asher, Alec proj: 12 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Barnes, Jacob 2018: 192 51 6 2 4 23 1 1 0 47 6 1 217
Barnes, Jacob proj: 192 46 9 1 4 21 2 1 1 53 4 1 217
Burnes, Corbin 2018: 136 27 5 0 4 11 1 1 3 35 4 1 152
Burnes, Corbin proj: 136 27 5 0 4 11 1 1 3 35 4 1 152
Cedeno, Xavier 2018: 30 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 32
Cedeno, Xavier proj: 29 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 32
Chacin, Jhoulys 2018: 681 152 32 5 17 69 9 8 11 153 8 5 778
Chacin, Jhoulys proj: 685 167 35 5 17 73 6 6 7 145 6 4 777
Davies, Zach 2018: 250 67 12 3 8 21 5 0 4 49 0 4 280
Davies, Zach proj: 255 68 12 2 7 19 2 2 3 48 2 2 281
Drake, Oliver 2018: 49 14 6 0 0 8 0 1 0 15 0 0 58
Drake, Oliver proj: 52 14 3 1 1 6 0 0 0 14 0 0 58
Gonzalez, Gio 2018: 89 14 2 1 2 10 1 0 0 22 1 1 100
Gonzalez, Gio proj: 88 21 4 0 2 10 1 1 1 23 1 1 101
Guerra, Junior 2018: 543 143 33 1 19 55 4 5 4 136 8 4 611
Guerra, Junior proj: 539 130 26 3 20 60 3 4 5 130 6 3 611
Hader, Josh 2018: 265 35 7 1 9 30 2 1 1 140 2 1 299
Hader, Josh proj: 261 37 9 1 8 32 2 1 3 128 2 1 299
Hoover, J.J. 2018: 8 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Hoover, J.J. proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Houser, Adrian 2018: 51 13 4 1 0 7 0 0 1 8 0 0 59
Houser, Adrian proj: 50 12 4 1 0 8 0 0 1 7 0 0 59
Jeffress, Jeremy 2018: 269 49 5 2 5 27 1 1 1 89 4 1 299
Jeffress, Jeremy proj: 264 65 11 1 5 29 1 2 2 65 3 1 298
Jennings, Dan 2018: 240 66 13 2 6 23 3 4 1 45 2 2 271
Jennings, Dan proj: 237 61 9 2 4 27 3 2 1 50 3 1 270
Knebel, Corey 2018: 193 38 8 3 7 22 1 0 4 87 7 5 220
Knebel, Corey proj: 194 41 8 2 6 23 0 0 2 76 7 2 219
Kratz, Erik 2018: 10 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 12
Kratz, Erik proj: 11 4 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 13
Logan, Boone 2018: 46 15 4 0 3 10 0 1 1 14 0 0 58
Logan, Boone proj: 50 13 3 0 2 6 1 1 1 14 1 0 59
Lopez, Jorge 2018: 71 16 2 1 1 13 1 0 0 15 1 1 85
Lopez, Jorge proj: 76 22 4 1 2 8 1 0 1 14 1 1 86
Lyles, Jordan 2018: 59 12 5 0 0 9 1 0 2 22 1 1 71
Lyles, Jordan proj: 64 18 4 0 2 5 0 1 1 11 1 0 71
Miley, Wade 2018: 300 71 16 1 3 27 1 5 5 50 2 1 338
Miley, Wade proj: 305 82 17 2 9 27 2 2 2 62 2 2 338
Peralta, Freddy 2018: 275 49 14 2 8 40 1 1 4 96 3 1 321
Peralta, Freddy proj: 275 49 14 2 8 40 1 1 4 96 3 1 321
Perez, Hernan 2018: 17 7 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 19
Perez, Hernan proj: 17 6 4 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 20
Soria, Joakim 2018: 83 18 5 2 2 6 0 0 1 25 2 0 90
Soria, Joakim proj: 81 18 3 0 2 7 1 1 1 24 1 0 91
Suter, Brent 2018: 395 102 16 4 18 19 1 5 4 84 1 0 424
Suter, Brent proj: 393 104 14 3 14 23 1 3 3 81 1 1 423
Wilkerson, Aaron 2018: 39 12 1 0 4 3 0 0 1 10 0 0 43
Wilkerson, Aaron proj: 40 10 2 1 3 2 0 0 1 9 0 0 43
Williams, Taylor 2018: 204 53 8 2 6 25 2 4 1 57 1 1 236
Williams, Taylor proj: 205 53 9 2 6 25 2 4 1 56 1 1 237
Woodruff, Brandon 2018: 159 36 5 1 4 14 1 0 2 47 2 0 176
Woodruff, Brandon proj: 159 39 6 0 4 14 0 0 2 39 3 1 175
Zagurski, Mike 2018: 8 5 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Zagurski, Mike proj: 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5389 1256 239 40 172 550 41 42 61 1420 68 39 6083
PROJECTED: 5405 1302 253 35 159 550 36 38 55 1353 63 30 6084
difference: -16 -46 -14 +5 +13 0 +5 +4 +6 +67 +5 +9 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .233 .241
Slugging Average: .388 .389
Walks (per PA): .090 .090
SOs (per PA): .233 .222
On-Base Average: .307 .313
Power Factor: 1.66 1.61
OPS: .695 .702
TPP Runs (to date): 649 663

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 14 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.