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MIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Belisle, Matt 2017: 34 8 0 1 1 6 1 0 1 10 1 0 42
Belisle, Matt proj: 38 11 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 40
Boshers, Buddy 2017: 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 8
Boshers, Buddy proj: 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 8
Breslow, Craig 2017: 24 6 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 4 0 1 29
Breslow, Craig proj: 26 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 29
Duffey, Tyler 2017: 43 11 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 9 0 0 48
Duffey, Tyler proj: 44 13 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 47
Gibson, Kyle 2017: 75 26 5 0 5 7 0 0 2 12 0 0 84
Gibson, Kyle proj: 76 21 4 0 2 7 0 0 1 13 1 0 84
Gimenez, Chris 2017: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Gimenez, Chris proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Haley, Justin 2017: 48 10 0 2 2 3 1 0 1 11 1 0 53
Haley, Justin proj: 48 10 0 2 2 3 1 0 1 11 1 0 53
Hughes, Phil 2017: 85 24 7 0 3 4 0 0 1 13 3 2 90
Hughes, Phil proj: 83 22 5 0 3 5 1 0 1 17 1 0 90
Kintzler, Brandon 2017: 30 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 5 1 0 35
Kintzler, Brandon proj: 32 9 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 34
Mejia, Adalberto 2017: 37 11 4 1 2 8 0 0 1 10 1 2 46
Mejia, Adalberto proj: 37 12 5 1 2 7 1 0 1 8 1 2 46
Pressly, Ryan 2017: 32 9 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 8 1 0 34
Pressly, Ryan proj: 31 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 34
Rogers, Taylor 2017: 24 7 1 0 0 4 0 1 1 5 1 0 30
Rogers, Taylor proj: 27 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 7 0 0 30
Santana, Ervin 2017: 112 13 2 0 2 10 0 1 0 26 1 0 123
Santana, Ervin proj: 111 28 6 1 4 9 1 1 1 23 2 1 123
Santiago, Hector 2017: 112 26 2 0 2 8 0 0 3 23 3 2 123
Santiago, Hector proj: 108 25 5 0 4 12 1 1 2 25 2 1 124
Tonkin, Michael 2017: 31 9 2 0 2 6 0 0 1 9 0 1 38
Tonkin, Michael proj: 34 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 37
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 695 164 27 4 22 66 3 5 15 146 13 8 784
PROJECTED: 703 183 37 4 25 62 5 2 8 149 9 4 780
difference: -8 -19 -10 0 -3 +4 -2 +3 +7 -3 +4 +4 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .236 .260
Slugging Average: .381 .431
Walks (per PA): .084 .079
SOs (per PA): .186 .190
On-Base Average: .313 .324
Power Factor: 1.62 1.66
OPS: .694 .755
TPP Runs (to date): 85 96

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 11 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.