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MIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Belisle, Matt 2017: 57 14 4 1 1 11 1 0 1 12 1 0 70
Belisle, Matt proj: 64 18 4 0 2 4 1 1 1 12 1 0 71
Berrios, Jose 2017: 49 4 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 15 0 1 54
Berrios, Jose proj: 46 13 2 0 2 6 0 0 1 10 1 0 53
Boshers, Buddy 2017: 10 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 11
Boshers, Buddy proj: 10 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Breslow, Craig 2017: 55 11 2 0 1 5 0 1 2 9 0 1 63
Breslow, Craig proj: 56 14 3 0 1 6 0 1 0 12 1 1 63
Duffey, Tyler 2017: 86 18 1 0 2 4 2 1 1 24 0 0 94
Duffey, Tyler proj: 87 24 6 1 3 6 0 1 1 19 0 0 95
Gibson, Kyle 2017: 136 46 11 1 7 17 0 0 2 21 0 0 155
Gibson, Kyle proj: 140 39 7 0 4 13 1 1 1 24 2 1 156
Gimenez, Chris 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Gimenez, Chris proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Haley, Justin 2017: 61 18 1 3 3 5 1 0 1 12 1 0 68
Haley, Justin proj: 61 18 1 3 3 5 1 0 1 12 1 0 68
Hughes, Phil 2017: 196 60 14 0 10 11 1 1 1 30 3 3 210
Hughes, Phil proj: 194 53 11 1 7 12 2 1 1 40 3 1 210
Kintzler, Brandon 2017: 72 17 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 12 1 0 79
Kintzler, Brandon proj: 73 19 3 0 2 5 0 1 0 14 1 0 79
Mejia, Adalberto 2017: 62 16 5 1 4 10 0 0 1 13 1 2 73
Mejia, Adalberto proj: 62 18 6 1 3 9 1 0 1 11 1 2 73
Pressly, Ryan 2017: 56 15 5 0 3 4 0 1 0 19 1 0 61
Pressly, Ryan proj: 55 14 3 0 1 5 1 1 0 11 1 0 62
Rogers, Taylor 2017: 53 14 3 0 1 4 0 2 1 10 2 0 60
Rogers, Taylor proj: 55 14 3 0 1 4 0 0 1 14 1 0 60
Rucinski, Drew 2017: 14 5 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 15
Rucinski, Drew proj: 13 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 15
Santana, Ervin 2017: 202 29 3 0 7 25 0 3 1 44 2 0 231
Santana, Ervin proj: 209 52 11 1 7 17 2 1 2 44 4 1 231
Santiago, Hector 2017: 193 48 3 0 7 19 0 0 3 33 5 2 215
Santiago, Hector proj: 188 45 8 1 7 22 1 1 3 43 4 2 215
Tepesch, Nick 2017: 11 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 13
Tepesch, Nick proj: 12 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Tonkin, Michael 2017: 47 14 2 0 4 10 0 0 1 13 0 1 58
Tonkin, Michael proj: 52 14 2 0 2 5 0 0 1 13 2 0 58
Wilk, Adam 2017: 28 8 1 0 2 5 0 0 0 4 1 1 33
Wilk, Adam proj: 30 10 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 32
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1391 343 58 7 56 142 5 9 19 279 19 11 1566
PROJECTED: 1410 375 73 8 47 125 10 9 14 291 24 8 1568
difference: -19 -32 -15 -1 +9 +17 -5 0 +5 -12 -5 +3 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .247 .266
Slugging Average: .419 .429
Walks (per PA): .091 .080
SOs (per PA): .178 .186
On-Base Average: .322 .328
Power Factor: 1.7 1.61
OPS: .741 .757
TPP Runs (to date): 189 196

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 7 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.