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MIN "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 20 July 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Astudillo, Willians 2018: 8 5 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Astudillo, Willians proj: 8 5 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Belisle, Matt 2018: 60 23 7 0 2 3 0 1 0 12 2 0 64
Belisle, Matt proj: 59 16 3 0 2 4 0 1 1 11 1 0 65
Berrios, Jose 2018: 471 100 23 1 17 29 1 0 9 127 4 2 510
Berrios, Jose proj: 456 111 24 1 16 41 2 2 10 114 5 2 511
Busenitz, Alan 2018: 54 19 3 0 3 6 0 0 2 15 2 0 62
Busenitz, Alan proj: 55 14 2 0 2 5 2 0 1 13 1 0 63
Curtiss, John 2018: 4 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 6
Curtiss, John proj: 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 6
Duffey, Tyler 2018: 49 14 2 0 4 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 50
Duffey, Tyler proj: 46 13 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 49
Duke, Zach 2018: 145 41 3 2 0 14 1 1 5 36 0 0 166
Duke, Zach proj: 150 44 9 1 4 11 1 2 1 24 2 1 165
Gibson, Kyle 2018: 447 102 18 2 13 48 5 2 3 119 1 1 505
Gibson, Kyle proj: 454 123 22 2 13 42 3 2 4 86 5 2 505
Hale, David 2018: 12 4 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Hale, David proj: 14 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 15
Hildenberger, Trevor 2018: 171 38 14 1 5 14 2 2 2 43 8 0 191
Hildenberger, Trevor proj: 174 40 12 1 5 11 2 2 3 46 7 0 192
Hughes, Phil 2018: 48 14 3 0 4 5 1 0 1 8 0 0 55
Hughes, Phil proj: 51 14 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 10 1 0 54
Kinley, Tyler 2018: 19 9 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 23
Kinley, Tyler proj: 19 9 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 23
LaMarre, Ryan 2018: 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
LaMarre, Ryan proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Littell, Zack 2018: 17 7 3 0 1 6 0 0 1 1 0 0 24
Littell, Zack proj: 17 7 3 0 1 6 0 0 1 1 0 0 24
Lynn, Lance 2018: 357 96 18 2 10 55 2 0 5 91 2 5 419
Lynn, Lance proj: 370 91 18 3 9 39 2 4 5 93 3 3 420
Magill, Matt 2018: 137 35 6 0 7 6 0 1 3 33 2 1 147
Magill, Matt proj: 124 32 4 0 7 19 1 1 2 29 2 2 147
Mejia, Adalberto 2018: 15 6 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 0 20
Mejia, Adalberto proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Moya, Gabriel 2018: 28 6 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 10 0 0 30
Moya, Gabriel proj: 28 6 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 8 0 0 30
Odorizzi, Jake 2018: 389 101 29 2 16 45 2 2 6 105 8 2 444
Odorizzi, Jake proj: 400 95 20 3 15 36 4 2 3 98 5 3 445
Pressly, Ryan 2018: 174 45 6 1 5 18 2 1 2 67 5 2 197
Pressly, Ryan proj: 176 45 8 1 5 16 2 2 1 41 3 1 197
Reed, Addison 2018: 155 46 6 1 8 13 3 2 3 37 1 1 176
Reed, Addison proj: 161 39 8 1 5 11 2 1 1 44 3 0 176
Rodney, Fernando 2018: 133 31 1 0 4 12 1 0 2 39 6 0 148
Rodney, Fernando proj: 127 29 6 0 3 17 1 1 2 34 3 1 148
Rogers, Taylor 2018: 148 38 7 1 3 8 2 1 0 41 0 1 159
Rogers, Taylor proj: 145 37 7 0 4 11 1 1 2 37 2 1 160
Romero, Fernando 2018: 215 60 12 0 6 19 4 2 7 45 4 2 247
Romero, Fernando proj: 215 60 12 0 6 19 4 2 7 45 4 2 247
Slegers, Aaron 2018: 53 16 3 1 3 2 0 0 1 5 1 0 56
Slegers, Aaron proj: 52 13 2 0 3 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 56
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 3312 859 169 14 120 319 27 16 52 850 48 17 3726
PROJECTED: 3327 855 171 13 112 308 27 23 44 763 49 18 3729
difference: -15 +4 -2 +1 +8 +11 0 -7 +8 +87 -1 -1 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .259 .257
Slugging Average: .428 .417
Walks (per PA): .086 .083
SOs (per PA): .228 .205
On-Base Average: .330 .324
Power Factor: 1.65 1.62
OPS: .758 .741
TPP Runs (to date): 464 446

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 18 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 21 July 2018, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.