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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bashlor, Tyler 2018: 79 19 5 0 2 10 0 1 0 8 4 1 90
Bashlor, Tyler proj: 79 19 5 0 2 10 0 1 0 8 4 1 90
Baumann, Buddy 2018: 16 7 3 0 1 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 21
Baumann, Buddy proj: 18 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 22
Bautista, Gerson 2018: 18 8 4 0 2 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Bautista, Gerson proj: 18 8 4 0 2 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Beck, Chris 2018: 37 10 1 0 3 9 0 0 0 5 2 2 46
Beck, Chris proj: 39 11 3 0 2 6 0 0 1 7 1 0 46
Blevins, Jerry 2018: 119 25 4 0 4 16 1 0 4 31 2 3 140
Blevins, Jerry proj: 123 28 5 0 3 13 2 1 2 34 2 1 141
Conlon, P.J. 2018: 36 15 5 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 38
Conlon, P.J. proj: 36 15 5 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 38
Copeland, Scott 2018: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5
Copeland, Scott proj: 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Familia, Jeurys 2018: 154 36 7 1 1 14 1 0 2 43 3 1 171
Familia, Jeurys proj: 151 33 6 1 2 17 1 1 1 43 4 1 171
Flexen, Chris 2018: 33 14 5 0 2 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 40
Flexen, Chris proj: 33 11 2 0 2 6 0 0 0 6 1 0 39
Gagnon, Drew 2018: 19 7 0 0 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 0 23
Gagnon, Drew proj: 19 7 0 0 2 1 0 1 2 3 0 0 23
Gsellman, Robert 2018: 254 58 8 0 7 26 3 3 4 59 6 0 290
Gsellman, Robert proj: 258 67 13 1 7 24 2 3 4 52 4 2 291
Harvey, Matt 2018: 109 33 9 0 6 9 2 2 1 20 2 0 123
Harvey, Matt proj: 112 27 5 1 3 8 1 1 1 28 1 0 123
Lugo, Seth 2018: 317 72 9 1 8 27 4 1 2 81 4 3 351
Lugo, Seth proj: 316 79 13 2 9 24 4 4 3 71 4 2 351
Matz, Steven 2018: 423 108 22 2 19 42 2 5 9 101 21 2 481
Matz, Steven proj: 435 115 18 2 16 33 2 6 6 102 17 3 482
Oswalt, Corey 2018: 174 42 4 0 11 10 0 0 3 28 1 1 187
Oswalt, Corey proj: 174 42 4 0 11 10 0 0 3 28 1 1 187
Peterson, Tim 2018: 94 28 2 0 8 5 0 1 1 21 2 0 101
Peterson, Tim proj: 94 28 2 0 8 5 0 1 1 21 2 0 101
Ramos, AJ 2018: 72 17 3 0 3 15 1 0 0 22 1 0 88
Ramos, AJ proj: 75 15 3 0 1 11 1 0 1 24 1 0 88
Reyes, Jose 2018: 8 5 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
Reyes, Jose proj: 8 5 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
Rhame, Jacob 2018: 93 29 3 3 7 5 0 2 0 16 1 0 100
Rhame, Jacob proj: 89 28 6 2 6 8 1 2 0 16 1 0 100
Robles, Hansel 2018: 75 21 4 0 7 10 1 1 1 23 0 0 88
Robles, Hansel proj: 76 18 4 1 3 9 1 1 1 22 1 1 88
Sewald, Paul 2018: 191 51 12 2 8 15 3 1 1 49 0 0 211
Sewald, Paul proj: 189 47 12 1 7 16 3 2 2 51 0 0 212
Smith, Drew 2018: 44 12 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 7 1 0 48
Smith, Drew proj: 44 12 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 7 1 0 48
Swarzak, Anthony 2018: 81 24 1 1 5 10 1 0 0 24 1 2 92
Swarzak, Anthony proj: 84 23 4 1 3 6 1 0 0 16 1 0 91
Syndergaard, Noah 2018: 396 105 17 2 6 21 2 2 7 105 25 2 428
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 398 96 17 3 8 22 2 2 3 118 20 3 427
Vargas, Jason 2018: 240 78 12 3 14 23 2 4 3 47 8 2 272
Vargas, Jason proj: 248 66 13 1 8 19 2 1 2 43 5 2 272
Wahl, Bobby 2018: 25 9 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Wahl, Bobby proj: 25 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Wheeler, Zack 2018: 549 130 17 0 12 47 2 5 5 146 7 0 608
Wheeler, Zack proj: 536 133 22 1 14 58 4 4 6 136 9 2 608
Zamora, Daniel 2018: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 10
Zamora, Daniel proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 10
deGrom, Jacob 2018: 609 125 24 3 8 36 2 3 5 204 11 8 655
deGrom, Jacob proj: 603 137 23 2 14 41 4 5 3 180 9 5 656
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4279 1091 186 19 152 379 30 32 52 1071 103 27 4772
PROJECTED: 4294 1086 196 20 139 367 34 36 44 1041 90 24 4775
difference: -15 +5 -10 -1 +13 +12 -4 -4 +8 +30 +13 +3 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .255 .253
Slugging Average: .414 .405
Walks (per PA): .079 .077
SOs (per PA): .224 .218
On-Base Average: .319 .314
Power Factor: 1.62 1.6
OPS: .733 .718
TPP Runs (to date): 573 550

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 23 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.