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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bashlor, Tyler 2018: 119 26 6 0 6 12 0 1 3 25 6 1 135
Bashlor, Tyler proj: 119 26 6 0 6 12 0 1 3 25 6 1 135
Baumann, Buddy 2018: 16 7 3 0 1 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 21
Baumann, Buddy proj: 18 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 22
Bautista, Gerson 2018: 18 8 4 0 2 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Bautista, Gerson proj: 18 8 4 0 2 5 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Beck, Chris 2018: 37 10 1 0 3 9 0 0 0 5 2 2 46
Beck, Chris proj: 39 11 3 0 2 6 0 0 1 7 1 0 46
Blevins, Jerry 2018: 160 36 9 0 6 22 1 0 5 41 4 3 188
Blevins, Jerry proj: 165 38 7 0 4 17 2 2 2 45 2 1 188
Conlon, P.J. 2018: 36 15 5 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 38
Conlon, P.J. proj: 36 15 5 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 38
Copeland, Scott 2018: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5
Copeland, Scott proj: 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Familia, Jeurys 2018: 154 36 7 1 1 14 1 0 2 43 3 1 171
Familia, Jeurys proj: 151 33 6 1 2 17 1 1 1 43 4 1 171
Flexen, Chris 2018: 33 14 5 0 2 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 40
Flexen, Chris proj: 33 11 2 0 2 6 0 0 0 6 1 0 39
Gagnon, Drew 2018: 47 15 0 0 2 5 0 2 2 8 0 0 56
Gagnon, Drew proj: 47 15 0 0 2 5 0 2 2 8 0 0 56
Gsellman, Robert 2018: 304 76 14 1 8 28 5 3 5 70 6 0 345
Gsellman, Robert proj: 307 82 17 2 8 27 3 4 4 62 4 2 345
Hanhold, Eric 2018: 11 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 13
Hanhold, Eric proj: 11 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 13
Harvey, Matt 2018: 109 33 9 0 6 9 2 2 1 20 2 0 123
Harvey, Matt proj: 112 28 5 1 3 8 1 1 1 28 1 0 123
Lugo, Seth 2018: 374 81 11 1 9 28 5 1 2 103 4 4 410
Lugo, Seth proj: 370 90 16 2 11 27 5 4 3 86 4 3 409
Matz, Steven 2018: 578 134 29 2 25 58 2 6 10 152 24 2 654
Matz, Steven proj: 591 151 25 2 22 47 2 7 8 144 22 3 655
Oswalt, Corey 2018: 257 69 11 0 14 20 0 1 4 45 4 3 282
Oswalt, Corey proj: 257 69 11 0 14 20 0 1 4 45 4 3 282
Peterson, Tim 2018: 111 29 2 0 8 5 0 1 1 25 3 0 118
Peterson, Tim proj: 111 29 2 0 8 5 0 1 1 25 3 0 118
Ramos, AJ 2018: 72 17 3 0 3 15 1 0 0 22 1 0 88
Ramos, AJ proj: 75 15 3 0 1 11 1 0 1 24 1 0 88
Reyes, Jose 2018: 8 5 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
Reyes, Jose proj: 8 5 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
Rhame, Jacob 2018: 129 38 4 3 8 8 0 2 1 28 2 2 140
Rhame, Jacob proj: 125 38 7 2 8 11 1 2 1 26 2 2 140
Robles, Hansel 2018: 75 21 4 0 7 10 1 1 1 23 0 0 88
Robles, Hansel proj: 76 17 4 1 3 9 1 1 1 22 1 1 88
Sewald, Paul 2018: 224 62 17 2 8 23 3 2 1 58 1 0 253
Sewald, Paul proj: 225 58 15 1 8 21 3 2 2 61 0 0 253
Smith, Drew 2018: 110 34 7 1 2 6 2 0 2 18 2 1 120
Smith, Drew proj: 110 34 7 1 2 6 2 0 2 18 2 1 120
Swarzak, Anthony 2018: 100 28 1 1 6 14 1 0 1 31 1 3 116
Swarzak, Anthony proj: 106 29 5 1 3 8 1 0 1 20 1 1 116
Syndergaard, Noah 2018: 592 148 25 3 9 39 3 3 7 155 32 3 644
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 598 143 25 4 12 35 3 4 4 174 30 5 644
Vargas, Jason 2018: 362 100 14 3 18 30 2 5 5 84 9 2 404
Vargas, Jason proj: 368 97 19 2 12 28 3 2 3 65 7 2 404
Wahl, Bobby 2018: 25 9 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Wahl, Bobby proj: 25 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Wheeler, Zack 2018: 668 150 20 1 14 55 4 8 9 179 8 1 744
Wheeler, Zack proj: 656 159 26 2 17 70 5 5 9 168 10 3 745
Zamora, Daniel 2018: 31 6 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 16 0 0 36
Zamora, Daniel proj: 31 6 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 16 0 0 36
deGrom, Jacob 2018: 776 152 27 3 10 46 5 3 5 269 15 8 835
deGrom, Jacob proj: 769 173 29 2 18 52 5 6 3 233 12 6 835
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5541 1364 241 24 185 484 40 42 71 1446 130 36 6178
PROJECTED: 5562 1398 254 26 177 468 41 47 61 1374 119 35 6179
difference: -21 -34 -13 -2 +8 +16 -1 -5 +10 +72 +11 +1 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .246 .251
Slugging Average: .398 .402
Walks (per PA): .078 .076
SOs (per PA): .234 .222
On-Base Average: .311 .312
Power Factor: 1.62 1.6
OPS: .709 .714
TPP Runs (to date): 699 703

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 4 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.