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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Avilan, Luis 2019: 37 14 2 0 2 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 42
Avilan, Luis proj: 37 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 41
Diaz, Edwin 2019: 33 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 16 0 0 35
Diaz, Edwin proj: 32 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 36
Familia, Jeurys 2019: 40 10 2 1 2 9 0 0 1 11 2 0 50
Familia, Jeurys proj: 44 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 13 1 0 49
Flexen, Chris 2019: 19 7 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 24
Flexen, Chris proj: 20 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 24
Gagnon, Drew 2019: 24 7 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 25
Gagnon, Drew proj: 22 7 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 4 0 0 26
Gsellman, Robert 2019: 57 14 5 0 2 2 0 0 1 14 0 0 60
Gsellman, Robert proj: 54 14 3 0 1 5 0 1 1 11 1 0 61
Lugo, Seth 2019: 56 15 4 0 2 4 1 0 2 17 0 0 63
Lugo, Seth proj: 57 14 2 0 2 4 1 1 1 13 1 0 64
Matz, Steven 2019: 85 19 4 1 5 8 0 2 1 25 0 1 96
Matz, Steven proj: 87 22 4 0 3 7 0 1 1 21 3 0 96
Oswalt, Corey 2019: 16 6 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 20
Oswalt, Corey proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
Peterson, Tim 2019: 15 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 2 1 0 21
Peterson, Tim proj: 19 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 21
Rhame, Jacob 2019: 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 7
Rhame, Jacob proj: 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Sewald, Paul 2019: 18 4 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 21
Sewald, Paul proj: 19 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 21
Syndergaard, Noah 2019: 112 30 7 1 3 7 1 2 1 34 2 1 123
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 114 28 5 1 2 7 1 1 1 33 5 1 124
Vargas, Jason 2019: 47 17 5 0 3 7 0 1 0 6 1 0 55
Vargas, Jason proj: 50 13 3 0 2 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 54
Wheeler, Zack 2019: 85 21 4 0 3 14 3 0 0 22 1 0 102
Wheeler, Zack proj: 90 22 4 0 2 10 1 1 1 23 1 0 103
Wilson, Justin 2019: 30 6 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 8 0 0 36
Wilson, Justin proj: 32 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 36
deGrom, Jacob 2019: 84 21 3 1 5 7 0 1 0 36 7 1 92
deGrom, Jacob proj: 85 19 3 0 2 6 1 1 0 26 1 1 93
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 762 203 47 4 33 87 6 7 10 206 15 3 872
PROJECTED: 786 195 34 1 23 72 4 7 7 201 18 2 876
difference: -24 +8 +13 +3 +10 +15 +2 0 +3 +5 -3 +1 -4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .266 .248
Slugging Average: .469 .382
Walks (per PA): .100 .083
SOs (per PA): .236 .231
On-Base Average: .344 .313
Power Factor: 1.76 1.54
OPS: .813 .694
TPP Runs (to date): 123 97

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 26 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.