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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Avilan, Luis 2019: 124 33 5 0 5 14 0 0 3 30 3 0 141
Avilan, Luis proj: 125 29 5 1 2 13 1 1 2 30 2 1 142
Bashlor, Tyler 2019: 84 21 2 0 6 17 1 1 0 20 3 0 103
Bashlor, Tyler proj: 88 20 3 0 5 13 0 1 1 19 4 0 103
Brach, Brad 2019: 57 15 1 1 1 3 0 1 0 15 0 1 61
Brach, Brad proj: 53 12 2 0 1 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 61
Diaz, Edwin 2019: 225 58 10 0 15 22 2 1 4 99 11 0 254
Diaz, Edwin proj: 227 46 7 0 9 21 1 0 4 99 8 1 253
Familia, Jeurys 2019: 226 62 14 1 7 42 1 2 3 63 6 2 274
Familia, Jeurys proj: 240 54 10 1 4 29 1 2 2 68 6 1 274
Flexen, Chris 2019: 56 15 6 0 1 13 1 0 0 10 1 0 70
Flexen, Chris proj: 58 19 5 0 3 11 1 0 1 10 1 0 71
Font, Wilmer 2019: 119 29 10 0 8 13 0 0 2 24 2 1 134
Font, Wilmer proj: 120 30 8 0 7 13 0 0 1 31 2 0 134
Gagnon, Drew 2019: 108 34 6 0 11 7 0 0 2 17 3 0 117
Gagnon, Drew proj: 105 33 4 0 9 8 0 1 3 17 2 0 117
Gsellman, Robert 2019: 245 64 18 1 7 23 2 1 6 60 4 0 277
Gsellman, Robert proj: 246 65 14 1 7 22 2 2 4 52 4 1 276
Hart, Donnie 2019: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Hart, Donnie proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Lugo, Seth 2019: 291 56 10 1 8 16 1 1 5 104 3 1 314
Lugo, Seth proj: 285 66 11 1 8 20 3 3 3 75 3 2 314
Matz, Steven 2019: 626 163 32 4 27 52 1 5 7 153 9 2 691
Matz, Steven proj: 625 160 28 3 24 50 2 7 8 152 19 3 692
Mazza, Chris 2019: 64 21 9 1 0 5 1 0 4 11 0 1 74
Mazza, Chris proj: 64 21 9 1 0 5 1 0 4 11 0 1 74
Nogosek, Stephen 2019: 31 12 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 6 0 0 34
Nogosek, Stephen proj: 31 12 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 6 0 0 34
O'Rourke, Ryan 2019: 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 6
O'Rourke, Ryan proj: 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6
Oswalt, Corey 2019: 28 9 4 0 1 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 34
Oswalt, Corey proj: 31 8 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 34
Peterson, Tim 2019: 27 7 1 0 1 7 0 0 1 3 1 0 35
Peterson, Tim proj: 32 8 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 35
Pounders, Brooks 2019: 30 9 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 5 2 0 34
Pounders, Brooks proj: 31 11 2 0 2 2 0 0 1 7 1 0 34
Rhame, Jacob 2019: 20 3 2 0 1 9 0 1 0 5 0 0 30
Rhame, Jacob proj: 26 7 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 6 0 0 30
Santiago, Hector 2019: 33 10 5 0 1 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 38
Santiago, Hector proj: 33 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 1 0 37
Sewald, Paul 2019: 74 18 6 0 3 3 1 1 1 22 0 0 80
Sewald, Paul proj: 71 18 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 20 0 0 80
Stroman, Marcus 2019: 235 65 12 1 8 23 1 1 1 60 3 2 261
Stroman, Marcus proj: 240 63 11 1 6 18 1 0 1 51 3 1 260
Syndergaard, Noah 2019: 758 194 37 4 24 50 8 3 6 202 42 3 825
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 764 187 34 5 18 47 5 4 5 217 39 5 825
Vargas, Jason 2019: 355 81 20 1 14 39 3 2 1 81 9 1 400
Vargas, Jason proj: 363 95 19 2 12 29 3 2 3 66 7 2 400
Wheeler, Zack 2019: 761 196 33 1 22 50 7 8 2 195 6 1 828
Wheeler, Zack proj: 738 182 30 2 20 70 6 6 8 189 10 2 828
Wilson, Justin 2019: 145 33 5 0 4 19 0 0 2 44 7 0 166
Wilson, Justin proj: 146 32 5 1 3 18 0 1 1 43 4 1 166
Zamora, Daniel 2019: 34 10 3 0 1 5 1 0 1 8 0 0 41
Zamora, Daniel proj: 35 9 2 1 1 4 1 1 1 13 0 0 42
alkerLockett, 2019: 95 33 5 1 6 6 0 1 1 16 0 2 103
alkerLockett, proj: 93 32 6 1 6 9 0 1 1 16 1 1 104
deGrom, Jacob 2019: 745 154 28 1 19 44 3 5 7 255 24 4 804
deGrom, Jacob proj: 741 164 28 2 17 49 5 6 4 230 14 5 805
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5602 1405 287 19 204 500 35 35 60 1520 139 22 6232
PROJECTED: 5619 1393 257 23 176 480 36 40 59 1463 133 27 6234
difference: -17 +12 +30 -4 +28 +20 -1 -5 +1 +57 +6 -5 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .248
Slugging Average: .418 .396
Walks (per PA): .080 .077
SOs (per PA): .244 .235
On-Base Average: .315 .310
Power Factor: 1.67 1.6
OPS: .733 .706
TPP Runs (to date): 747 701

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 46 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.