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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 184 42 5 0 4 23 1 0 4 68 1 1 212
Blevins, Jerry proj: 186 43 8 1 5 19 2 2 2 52 2 1 211
Bradford, Chasen 2017: 116 27 7 0 3 13 1 0 0 26 0 1 130
Bradford, Chasen proj: 116 27 7 0 3 13 1 0 0 26 0 1 130
Callahan, Jamie 2017: 23 6 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 24
Callahan, Jamie proj: 23 6 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 24
Edgin, Josh 2017: 143 39 9 0 3 18 0 0 5 27 0 1 166
Edgin, Josh proj: 146 34 7 0 4 16 1 1 3 35 1 0 167
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 78 18 3 0 1 15 2 2 1 22 8 1 98
Familia, Jeurys proj: 86 19 3 0 1 10 1 1 1 24 2 0 99
Flexen, Chris 2017: 166 53 11 0 9 30 2 0 2 29 4 1 200
Flexen, Chris proj: 166 53 11 0 9 30 2 0 2 29 4 1 200
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 16 8 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 19
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Goeddel, Erik 2017: 105 26 6 0 8 11 1 0 0 32 2 1 117
Goeddel, Erik proj: 105 23 5 0 4 10 1 0 1 29 2 1 117
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 470 132 31 4 17 41 2 3 8 78 5 3 524
Gsellman, Robert proj: 468 129 28 3 13 41 3 5 7 89 4 4 524
Harvey, Matt 2017: 356 103 14 1 20 44 1 3 6 64 4 1 410
Harvey, Matt proj: 374 90 15 2 10 27 2 4 3 97 4 1 410
Lugo, Seth 2017: 364 106 21 2 12 25 5 2 2 74 4 2 398
Lugo, Seth proj: 355 94 18 2 11 28 5 6 4 72 4 2 398
Matz, Steven 2017: 272 83 14 2 12 19 1 3 3 48 9 0 298
Matz, Steven proj: 273 74 10 1 9 18 1 4 3 63 10 2 299
McGowan, Kevin 2017: 19 4 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
McGowan, Kevin proj: 19 4 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Milone, Tommy 2017: 114 36 6 2 9 12 0 2 0 22 4 1 128
Milone, Tommy proj: 118 32 6 0 5 8 1 1 1 21 2 1 129
Montero, Rafael 2017: 427 129 20 0 11 61 8 7 4 108 14 2 507
Montero, Rafael proj: 432 124 22 3 14 63 5 5 2 110 13 2 507
Pill, Tyler 2017: 82 22 5 1 3 10 2 3 2 16 1 0 99
Pill, Tyler proj: 82 22 5 1 3 10 2 3 2 16 1 0 99
Plawecki, Kevin 2017: 14 5 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Plawecki, Kevin proj: 14 5 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 81 20 2 0 4 17 2 0 0 26 1 0 100
Ramirez, Neil proj: 85 20 4 0 3 12 2 0 1 27 2 1 100
Ramos, AJ 2017: 71 19 2 1 3 12 1 0 0 23 0 0 84
Ramos, AJ proj: 71 14 3 0 1 11 1 0 1 23 1 0 84
Reed, Addison 2017: 192 49 9 1 6 6 2 0 0 48 0 0 200
Reed, Addison proj: 184 44 9 1 5 12 2 1 1 51 3 0 200
Rhame, Jacob 2017: 24 11 4 0 2 5 0 1 0 4 0 0 30
Rhame, Jacob proj: 24 11 4 0 2 5 0 1 0 4 0 0 30
Robles, Hansel 2017: 194 44 6 2 8 28 2 3 5 59 1 2 232
Robles, Hansel proj: 201 45 11 1 7 24 2 1 2 61 3 2 230
Salas, Fernando 2017: 187 60 9 0 7 20 3 4 0 47 4 3 214
Salas, Fernando proj: 192 46 10 1 6 16 2 3 1 50 3 1 214
Sewald, Paul 2017: 239 57 15 1 8 18 3 3 3 67 0 0 266
Sewald, Paul proj: 239 57 15 1 8 18 3 3 3 67 0 0 266
Smoker, Josh 2017: 219 61 15 0 10 31 2 2 2 65 6 2 256
Smoker, Josh proj: 223 61 12 0 11 28 2 2 2 72 6 2 257
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 112 29 5 1 0 2 1 1 1 32 1 2 117
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 109 26 5 1 2 6 1 1 0 33 5 1 117
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 342 97 15 1 15 40 1 0 3 81 8 2 386
Wheeler, Zack proj: 338 85 15 1 9 40 3 2 4 84 6 2 387
Wilk, Adam 2017: 18 8 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 20
Wilk, Adam proj: 18 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 758 180 25 3 28 59 5 3 2 239 18 3 827
deGrom, Jacob proj: 759 177 30 2 20 53 5 7 2 220 11 5 826
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5386 1474 264 23 212 568 49 44 53 1320 95 29 6100
PROJECTED: 5423 1376 268 22 170 527 50 53 48 1371 89 30 6101
difference: -37 +98 -4 +1 +42 +41 -1 -9 +5 -51 +6 -1 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .274 .254
Slugging Average: .449 .405
Walks (per PA): .093 .086
SOs (per PA): .216 .225
On-Base Average: .343 .320
Power Factor: 1.64 1.6
OPS: .793 .725
TPP Runs (to date): 829 706

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 123 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.