Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 26 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 54 10 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 23 1 0 60
Blevins, Jerry proj: 53 12 2 0 1 5 1 1 1 14 1 0 61
Edgin, Josh 2017: 68 15 6 0 1 6 0 0 4 11 0 1 78
Edgin, Josh proj: 69 15 3 0 2 7 1 1 1 17 0 0 79
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 34 7 1 0 0 8 1 0 0 10 4 0 43
Familia, Jeurys proj: 38 8 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 11 1 0 42
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 16 8 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 19
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 187 59 15 1 5 15 2 1 4 33 4 2 209
Gsellman, Robert proj: 186 54 12 1 3 16 2 3 3 40 3 3 210
Harvey, Matt 2017: 193 48 7 1 11 26 0 1 2 37 1 1 222
Harvey, Matt proj: 203 47 8 1 5 14 1 2 1 54 2 1 221
Milone, Tommy 2017: 54 19 3 0 5 7 0 0 0 12 4 0 61
Milone, Tommy proj: 56 15 3 0 2 4 0 0 0 10 1 0 60
Montero, Rafael 2017: 87 33 5 0 2 17 1 2 1 20 2 0 108
Montero, Rafael proj: 92 27 5 1 3 15 0 1 0 23 2 0 108
Plawecki, Kevin 2017: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Plawecki, Kevin proj: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 6 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 8
Ramirez, Neil proj: 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 8
Reed, Addison 2017: 93 22 3 1 5 3 2 0 0 28 0 0 98
Reed, Addison proj: 90 21 4 1 2 6 1 1 0 25 2 0 98
Robles, Hansel 2017: 81 21 6 1 5 13 1 1 3 23 1 2 99
Robles, Hansel proj: 86 19 6 1 3 10 1 0 1 26 2 1 98
Salas, Fernando 2017: 88 25 5 0 3 12 2 2 0 19 1 0 104
Salas, Fernando proj: 94 22 5 1 3 8 1 1 0 25 1 0 104
Sewald, Paul 2017: 66 17 2 1 0 4 0 1 0 20 0 0 71
Sewald, Paul proj: 66 17 2 1 0 4 0 1 0 20 0 0 71
Smoker, Josh 2017: 76 21 6 0 5 10 0 0 2 22 1 0 88
Smoker, Josh proj: 78 21 3 0 5 8 0 0 2 27 1 0 88
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 109 28 5 1 0 2 1 1 1 32 1 2 114
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 106 25 5 1 2 6 1 1 0 32 5 1 114
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 162 36 3 1 5 20 0 0 2 40 3 0 184
Wheeler, Zack proj: 160 38 7 1 4 19 1 1 2 41 3 1 183
Wilk, Adam 2017: 18 8 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 20
Wilk, Adam proj: 18 6 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 19
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 242 56 8 1 8 24 0 0 1 86 1 1 267
deGrom, Jacob proj: 245 57 10 0 6 17 2 2 1 71 2 2 267
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1644 440 79 8 64 177 11 11 20 423 25 9 1863
PROJECTED: 1674 415 78 9 45 146 12 15 12 445 26 9 1859
difference: -30 +25 +1 -1 +19 +31 -1 -4 +8 -22 -1 0 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .268 .248
Slugging Average: .442 .386
Walks (per PA): .095 .078
SOs (per PA): .227 .239
On-Base Average: .342 .308
Power Factor: 1.65 1.56
OPS: .784 .694
TPP Runs (to date): 248 200

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 48 more than Projected TPP.




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of "Performance-Enhancing Drugs" in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2017 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Saturday, 27 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.