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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 86 15 2 0 2 9 0 0 0 36 1 0 95
Blevins, Jerry proj: 84 19 3 0 2 8 1 1 1 23 1 1 95
Edgin, Josh 2017: 111 29 9 0 3 12 0 0 5 19 0 1 128
Edgin, Josh proj: 113 26 6 0 3 12 1 1 2 27 1 0 129
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 34 7 1 0 0 8 1 0 0 10 4 0 43
Familia, Jeurys proj: 38 8 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 11 1 0 42
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 16 8 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 19
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Goeddel, Erik 2017: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Goeddel, Erik proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 306 92 23 2 13 26 2 2 5 53 4 2 341
Gsellman, Robert proj: 304 87 19 1 9 27 3 4 4 62 3 3 342
Harvey, Matt 2017: 271 67 8 1 16 35 0 1 3 54 1 1 310
Harvey, Matt proj: 284 66 11 2 7 20 2 3 2 75 3 1 311
Lugo, Seth 2017: 51 13 2 0 2 4 1 1 1 11 0 1 58
Lugo, Seth proj: 50 11 2 0 2 5 1 2 1 10 0 0 59
Matz, Steven 2017: 54 13 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 6 0 0 56
Matz, Steven proj: 52 13 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 13 2 0 56
Milone, Tommy 2017: 54 19 3 0 5 7 0 0 0 12 4 0 61
Milone, Tommy proj: 56 15 3 0 2 4 0 0 0 10 1 0 60
Montero, Rafael 2017: 110 36 5 0 2 19 1 2 1 28 2 0 133
Montero, Rafael proj: 114 32 6 1 4 18 0 1 0 29 3 1 133
Pill, Tyler 2017: 69 20 5 1 2 7 2 3 2 14 1 0 83
Pill, Tyler proj: 69 20 5 1 2 7 2 3 2 14 1 0 83
Plawecki, Kevin 2017: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Plawecki, Kevin proj: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 57 13 1 0 3 14 2 0 0 19 1 0 73
Ramirez, Neil proj: 62 14 3 0 2 9 1 0 0 20 2 1 72
Reed, Addison 2017: 143 37 7 1 5 5 2 0 0 39 0 0 150
Reed, Addison proj: 138 33 7 1 4 9 1 1 0 38 3 0 149
Robles, Hansel 2017: 81 21 6 1 5 13 1 1 3 23 1 2 99
Robles, Hansel proj: 86 19 6 1 3 10 1 0 1 26 2 1 98
Salas, Fernando 2017: 129 38 6 0 5 17 2 2 0 34 2 2 150
Salas, Fernando proj: 135 32 7 1 4 11 1 2 1 36 2 1 150
Sewald, Paul 2017: 110 31 8 1 2 8 0 1 2 34 0 0 121
Sewald, Paul proj: 110 31 8 1 2 8 0 1 2 34 0 0 121
Smoker, Josh 2017: 124 37 8 0 7 17 0 0 2 36 3 0 143
Smoker, Josh proj: 127 36 6 0 8 14 0 0 2 42 3 0 143
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 109 28 5 1 0 2 1 1 1 32 1 2 114
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 106 25 5 1 2 6 1 1 0 32 5 1 114
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 261 73 9 1 11 29 0 0 2 61 5 0 292
Wheeler, Zack proj: 256 64 11 1 7 30 2 2 3 64 4 1 293
Wilk, Adam 2017: 18 8 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 20
Wilk, Adam proj: 18 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 338 82 13 1 13 36 2 0 1 106 7 1 377
deGrom, Jacob proj: 345 80 14 1 8 25 2 3 1 98 4 2 376
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2543 691 126 10 107 271 18 17 28 633 37 12 2877
PROJECTED: 2575 646 127 12 77 233 19 26 22 671 41 13 2875
difference: -32 +45 -1 -2 +30 +38 -1 -9 +6 -38 -4 -1 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .272 .251
Slugging Average: .455 .399
Walks (per PA): .094 .081
SOs (per PA): .220 .233
On-Base Average: .344 .313
Power Factor: 1.68 1.59
OPS: .799 .713
TPP Runs (to date): 396 323

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 73 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.