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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 26 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 12 0 0 31
Blevins, Jerry proj: 27 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 30
Edgin, Josh 2017: 34 9 4 0 0 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 38
Edgin, Josh proj: 34 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 0 0 37
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 11 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 7 4 0 18
Familia, Jeurys proj: 16 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 91 28 6 1 2 9 2 0 2 22 1 1 104
Gsellman, Robert proj: 91 25 5 0 1 9 1 1 1 23 1 1 103
Harvey, Matt 2017: 109 24 2 0 6 10 0 1 1 18 0 1 121
Harvey, Matt proj: 111 26 4 1 2 7 1 1 1 30 1 0 121
Montero, Rafael 2017: 33 16 1 0 0 8 1 0 0 6 1 0 42
Montero, Rafael proj: 36 10 2 1 1 6 0 0 0 9 1 0 42
Reed, Addison 2017: 41 8 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 15 0 0 42
Reed, Addison proj: 39 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 11 1 0 42
Robles, Hansel 2017: 44 7 1 1 1 7 0 1 2 13 1 0 54
Robles, Hansel proj: 47 10 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 14 1 0 53
Salas, Fernando 2017: 43 13 2 0 3 4 0 2 0 10 0 0 49
Salas, Fernando proj: 44 10 2 0 1 4 0 1 0 12 1 0 49
Smoker, Josh 2017: 46 9 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 16 0 0 52
Smoker, Josh proj: 47 11 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 18 0 0 51
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 100 23 5 1 0 0 1 1 1 30 1 2 103
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 96 23 4 1 2 5 1 1 0 29 5 1 103
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 82 18 1 1 3 6 0 0 1 21 2 0 89
Wheeler, Zack proj: 78 19 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 20 1 0 90
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 91 20 3 0 2 10 0 0 0 32 0 0 101
deGrom, Jacob proj: 93 21 4 0 2 6 1 1 0 26 1 1 101
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 754 180 28 5 20 74 6 5 8 208 10 4 847
PROJECTED: 762 182 33 3 17 66 6 6 3 213 13 3 843
difference: -8 -2 -5 +2 +3 +8 0 -1 +5 -5 -3 +1 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .239 .239
Slugging Average: .369 .357
Walks (per PA): .087 .078
SOs (per PA): .246 .251
On-Base Average: .309 .298
Power Factor: 1.54 1.49
OPS: .678 .655
TPP Runs (to date): 88 83

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 5 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.