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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 119 26 4 0 3 16 0 0 1 44 1 0 136
Blevins, Jerry proj: 120 27 5 0 3 12 2 1 1 33 2 1 136
Bradford, Chasen 2017: 27 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 30
Bradford, Chasen proj: 27 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 30
Edgin, Josh 2017: 139 38 9 0 3 18 0 0 5 27 0 1 162
Edgin, Josh proj: 142 34 7 0 4 16 1 1 3 35 1 0 163
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 34 7 1 0 0 8 1 0 0 10 4 0 43
Familia, Jeurys proj: 38 8 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 11 1 0 42
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 16 8 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 19
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Goeddel, Erik 2017: 40 10 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 11 2 1 44
Goeddel, Erik proj: 39 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 11 1 0 43
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 320 97 25 2 13 26 2 2 5 57 4 2 355
Gsellman, Robert proj: 318 91 21 1 9 27 3 4 4 65 3 3 356
Harvey, Matt 2017: 271 67 8 1 16 35 0 1 3 54 1 1 310
Harvey, Matt proj: 284 66 11 2 7 20 2 3 2 75 3 1 311
Lugo, Seth 2017: 179 49 11 1 4 14 3 1 2 33 0 2 199
Lugo, Seth proj: 174 42 9 1 5 15 3 4 3 34 1 1 199
Matz, Steven 2017: 178 51 8 0 8 11 1 1 0 30 6 0 191
Matz, Steven proj: 176 46 6 0 6 11 1 2 1 42 6 1 191
Milone, Tommy 2017: 54 19 3 0 5 7 0 0 0 12 4 0 61
Milone, Tommy proj: 56 15 3 0 2 4 0 0 0 10 1 0 60
Montero, Rafael 2017: 206 64 11 0 5 26 3 5 2 52 4 1 242
Montero, Rafael proj: 208 59 11 2 7 29 1 3 1 53 5 1 242
Pill, Tyler 2017: 69 20 5 1 2 7 2 3 2 14 1 0 83
Pill, Tyler proj: 69 20 5 1 2 7 2 3 2 14 1 0 83
Plawecki, Kevin 2017: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Plawecki, Kevin proj: 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 81 20 2 0 4 17 2 0 0 26 1 0 100
Ramirez, Neil proj: 85 20 4 0 3 12 2 0 1 27 2 1 100
Reed, Addison 2017: 184 46 8 1 6 6 2 0 0 48 0 0 192
Reed, Addison proj: 177 42 9 1 5 12 2 1 1 49 3 0 193
Robles, Hansel 2017: 94 23 6 1 6 14 1 1 3 28 1 2 113
Robles, Hansel proj: 99 22 6 1 4 12 1 1 1 30 2 1 114
Salas, Fernando 2017: 165 54 9 0 6 19 3 4 0 42 4 3 191
Salas, Fernando proj: 172 41 9 1 5 14 2 2 1 45 2 1 191
Sewald, Paul 2017: 148 37 9 1 3 14 1 1 2 47 0 0 166
Sewald, Paul proj: 148 37 9 1 3 14 1 1 2 47 0 0 166
Smoker, Josh 2017: 130 39 8 0 7 18 0 1 2 36 4 1 151
Smoker, Josh proj: 133 38 6 0 8 15 0 1 2 43 3 1 151
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 109 28 5 1 0 2 1 1 1 32 1 2 114
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 106 25 5 1 2 6 1 1 0 32 5 1 114
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 342 97 15 1 15 40 1 0 3 81 8 2 386
Wheeler, Zack proj: 338 85 15 1 9 40 3 2 4 84 6 2 387
Wilk, Adam 2017: 18 8 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 20
Wilk, Adam proj: 18 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 499 113 18 2 19 42 2 0 1 152 8 1 544
deGrom, Jacob proj: 500 115 20 1 13 35 3 4 2 142 6 3 544
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3432 934 171 12 135 349 26 23 32 848 54 19 3862
PROJECTED: 3454 866 168 14 103 315 30 34 31 895 54 18 3864
difference: -22 +68 +3 -2 +32 +34 -4 -11 +1 -47 0 +1 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .272 .251
Slugging Average: .447 .397
Walks (per PA): .090 .082
SOs (per PA): .220 .232
On-Base Average: .340 .314
Power Factor: 1.64 1.58
OPS: .787 .711
TPP Runs (to date): 517 431

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 86 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.