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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYM "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blevins, Jerry 2017: 188 43 6 0 4 24 1 0 4 69 1 1 217
Blevins, Jerry proj: 191 44 8 1 5 19 2 2 2 53 2 1 216
Bradford, Chasen 2017: 129 30 7 0 3 13 1 0 0 27 1 1 143
Bradford, Chasen proj: 129 30 7 0 3 13 1 0 0 27 1 1 143
Callahan, Jamie 2017: 28 7 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 5 0 0 30
Callahan, Jamie proj: 28 7 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 5 0 0 30
Edgin, Josh 2017: 143 39 9 0 3 18 0 0 5 27 0 1 166
Edgin, Josh proj: 146 34 7 0 4 16 1 1 3 35 1 0 167
Familia, Jeurys 2017: 91 21 3 0 1 15 2 2 1 25 8 1 111
Familia, Jeurys proj: 98 21 4 0 1 11 1 1 1 27 3 0 112
Flexen, Chris 2017: 193 62 12 0 11 35 2 1 2 36 4 1 233
Flexen, Chris proj: 193 62 12 0 11 35 2 1 2 36 4 1 233
Gilmartin, Sean 2017: 16 8 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 4 0 0 19
Gilmartin, Sean proj: 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Goeddel, Erik 2017: 109 28 8 0 8 11 1 1 0 33 2 1 122
Goeddel, Erik proj: 109 25 6 0 4 11 1 0 1 30 2 1 122
Gsellman, Robert 2017: 493 138 31 4 17 42 2 4 8 82 7 3 549
Gsellman, Robert proj: 491 135 28 3 13 43 3 6 7 93 6 4 550
Harvey, Matt 2017: 373 110 15 1 21 47 2 3 6 67 4 1 431
Harvey, Matt proj: 393 95 16 2 10 28 3 4 3 101 4 2 431
Lugo, Seth 2017: 402 114 22 2 13 25 5 2 2 85 5 2 436
Lugo, Seth proj: 392 102 19 3 13 29 6 6 4 81 4 2 437
Matz, Steven 2017: 272 83 14 2 12 19 1 3 3 48 9 0 298
Matz, Steven proj: 273 74 10 1 9 18 1 4 3 63 10 2 299
McGowan, Kevin 2017: 34 8 2 0 2 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 40
McGowan, Kevin proj: 34 8 2 0 2 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 40
Milone, Tommy 2017: 114 36 6 2 9 12 0 2 0 22 4 1 128
Milone, Tommy proj: 118 32 6 0 5 8 1 1 1 21 2 1 129
Montero, Rafael 2017: 461 141 25 0 12 67 8 9 5 114 14 2 550
Montero, Rafael proj: 467 135 26 3 15 69 5 6 3 118 14 2 550
Pill, Tyler 2017: 82 22 5 1 3 10 2 3 2 16 1 0 99
Pill, Tyler proj: 82 22 5 1 3 10 2 3 2 16 1 0 99
Plawecki, Kevin 2017: 14 5 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Plawecki, Kevin proj: 14 5 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 81 20 2 0 4 17 2 0 0 26 1 0 100
Ramirez, Neil proj: 85 20 4 0 3 12 2 0 1 27 2 1 100
Ramos, AJ 2017: 74 19 2 1 3 12 1 0 0 25 0 0 87
Ramos, AJ proj: 74 15 3 0 1 11 1 0 1 24 1 0 87
Reed, Addison 2017: 192 49 9 1 6 6 2 0 0 48 0 0 200
Reed, Addison proj: 184 43 9 1 5 12 2 1 1 51 3 0 200
Rhame, Jacob 2017: 36 12 5 0 2 7 1 1 0 7 0 0 45
Rhame, Jacob proj: 36 12 5 0 2 7 1 1 0 7 0 0 45
Robles, Hansel 2017: 208 47 6 2 10 29 2 3 5 60 3 2 247
Robles, Hansel proj: 215 48 11 2 8 26 2 2 2 64 4 2 247
Salas, Fernando 2017: 187 60 9 0 7 20 3 4 0 47 4 3 214
Salas, Fernando proj: 193 46 10 1 6 16 2 3 1 51 3 1 215
Sewald, Paul 2017: 245 58 15 1 8 21 3 3 3 69 0 0 275
Sewald, Paul proj: 245 58 15 1 8 21 3 3 3 69 0 0 275
Smoker, Josh 2017: 227 64 16 0 10 32 3 2 3 68 6 2 267
Smoker, Josh proj: 231 64 13 0 11 29 2 2 3 75 6 2 267
Syndergaard, Noah 2017: 118 29 5 1 0 3 1 1 1 34 2 2 124
Syndergaard, Noah proj: 116 27 5 1 3 6 1 1 1 35 5 1 125
Wheeler, Zack 2017: 342 97 15 1 15 40 1 0 3 81 8 2 386
Wheeler, Zack proj: 338 85 15 1 9 40 3 2 4 84 6 2 387
Wilk, Adam 2017: 18 8 2 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 20
Wilk, Adam proj: 18 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 20
deGrom, Jacob 2017: 758 180 25 3 28 59 5 3 2 239 18 3 827
deGrom, Jacob proj: 759 177 30 2 20 53 5 7 2 220 11 5 826
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5628 1538 278 23 220 593 53 49 55 1374 102 29 6378
PROJECTED: 5669 1437 280 24 178 553 54 57 51 1428 95 31 6384
difference: -41 +101 -2 -1 +42 +40 -1 -8 +4 -54 +7 -2 -6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .273 .253
Slugging Average: .448 .406
Walks (per PA): .093 .087
SOs (per PA): .215 .224
On-Base Average: .343 .320
Power Factor: 1.64 1.6
OPS: .791 .725
TPP Runs (to date): 864 739

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 125 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.