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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Betances, Dellin 2017: 198 28 6 0 3 43 0 1 11 99 8 3 253
Betances, Dellin proj: 218 37 7 0 4 29 1 1 4 100 12 2 253
Cessa, Luis 2017: 140 36 8 1 7 17 0 0 3 30 2 2 160
Cessa, Luis proj: 146 36 6 0 8 11 0 0 2 27 2 1 159
Chapman, Aroldis 2017: 177 37 9 0 3 20 1 0 3 65 10 2 201
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 175 28 5 0 3 23 1 0 2 83 4 2 201
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 134 28 6 1 7 19 1 3 1 42 4 1 158
Clippard, Tyler proj: 138 27 5 1 5 16 1 1 1 42 3 1 157
Gallegos, Giovanny 2017: 78 21 5 0 3 5 1 1 0 22 0 0 85
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 78 21 5 0 3 5 1 1 0 22 0 0 85
Garcia, Jaime 2017: 147 41 10 0 6 20 3 0 0 37 6 0 170
Garcia, Jaime proj: 155 40 8 1 4 12 1 1 1 33 2 1 170
German, Domingo 2017: 46 11 3 0 1 8 1 0 0 15 0 0 55
German, Domingo proj: 46 11 3 0 1 8 1 0 0 15 0 0 55
Gray, Sonny 2017: 229 49 9 1 9 22 0 1 2 57 2 1 254
Gray, Sonny proj: 231 54 9 1 6 20 2 1 1 53 2 1 255
Green, Chad 2017: 222 33 10 0 4 16 1 2 2 101 5 2 243
Green, Chad proj: 222 45 10 0 9 17 1 2 2 84 4 2 244
Heller, Ben 2017: 27 5 0 1 0 5 1 0 0 6 1 0 33
Heller, Ben proj: 28 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 1 5 1 0 33
Herrera, Ronald 2017: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Herrera, Ronald proj: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Holder, Jonathan 2017: 157 43 8 0 5 8 0 1 2 40 1 0 168
Holder, Jonathan proj: 155 42 8 0 5 10 1 1 2 37 1 0 169
Kahnle, Tommy 2017: 94 24 5 0 1 8 2 0 2 32 0 0 106
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 92 20 4 0 2 12 1 1 0 29 2 0 106
Layne, Tommy 2017: 54 16 3 1 1 8 0 0 1 9 1 0 63
Layne, Tommy proj: 54 13 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 13 1 1 63
Mitchell, Bryan 2017: 139 42 10 0 2 13 0 0 1 17 1 0 153
Mitchell, Bryan proj: 136 39 8 1 2 15 0 0 2 22 1 1 153
Montgomery, Jordan 2017: 553 132 20 3 21 49 1 2 1 136 2 1 606
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 553 132 20 3 21 49 1 2 1 136 2 1 606
Pineda, Michael 2017: 383 103 14 0 20 21 4 0 2 92 6 3 410
Pineda, Michael proj: 381 95 19 2 13 23 2 1 2 100 6 5 409
Robertson, David 2017: 108 14 3 0 2 9 0 0 1 44 0 0 118
Robertson, David proj: 105 22 4 0 2 11 0 1 1 38 3 1 118
Sabathia, CC 2017: 525 129 18 3 19 49 0 2 4 110 4 4 580
Sabathia, CC proj: 526 132 26 2 14 42 4 4 5 119 8 4 581
Severino, Luis 2017: 700 146 29 0 20 50 2 3 6 221 4 2 761
Severino, Luis proj: 696 159 36 1 23 56 1 2 6 197 5 3 761
Shreve, Chasen 2017: 164 33 11 0 7 23 2 0 0 55 0 0 189
Shreve, Chasen proj: 164 36 7 1 7 22 1 1 1 50 1 1 189
Smith, Caleb 2017: 75 21 4 0 4 10 1 0 0 18 0 0 86
Smith, Caleb proj: 75 21 4 0 4 10 1 0 0 18 0 0 86
Tanaka, Masahiro 2017: 678 177 41 0 35 41 2 1 7 179 3 3 729
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 684 164 36 2 26 34 4 2 4 169 5 2 728
Warren, Adam 2017: 199 35 6 0 4 15 5 0 1 53 3 1 220
Warren, Adam proj: 197 46 9 1 5 18 2 1 2 45 2 1 220
Webb, Tyler 2017: 19 3 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
Webb, Tyler proj: 20 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5258 1210 239 11 186 484 28 17 51 1488 64 25 5838
PROJECTED: 5287 1236 243 16 171 458 27 24 42 1445 68 30 5838
difference: -29 -26 -4 -5 +15 +26 +1 -7 +9 +43 -4 -5 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .230 .234
Slugging Average: .386 .383
Walks (per PA): .083 .078
SOs (per PA): .255 .248
On-Base Average: .299 .297
Power Factor: 1.68 1.64
OPS: .685 .680
TPP Runs (to date): 608 600

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 8 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.