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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Betances, Dellin 2017: 205 29 6 0 3 44 0 1 11 100 8 3 261
Betances, Dellin proj: 225 38 7 0 4 29 1 1 4 103 12 2 260
Cessa, Luis 2017: 140 36 8 1 7 17 0 0 3 30 2 2 160
Cessa, Luis proj: 146 36 6 0 8 11 0 0 2 27 2 1 159
Chapman, Aroldis 2017: 186 37 9 0 3 20 1 0 3 69 10 2 210
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 183 29 5 0 3 24 1 0 2 87 5 2 210
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 134 28 6 1 7 19 1 3 1 42 4 1 158
Clippard, Tyler proj: 138 27 5 1 5 16 1 1 1 42 3 1 157
Gallegos, Giovanny 2017: 81 21 5 0 3 5 1 1 0 22 0 0 88
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 81 21 5 0 3 5 1 1 0 22 0 0 88
Garcia, Jaime 2017: 147 41 10 0 6 20 3 0 0 37 6 0 170
Garcia, Jaime proj: 155 40 8 1 4 12 1 1 1 33 2 1 170
German, Domingo 2017: 51 11 3 0 1 9 1 1 0 18 0 0 62
German, Domingo proj: 51 11 3 0 1 9 1 1 0 18 0 0 62
Gray, Sonny 2017: 248 55 9 1 11 27 0 1 2 59 2 1 278
Gray, Sonny proj: 252 59 10 1 6 22 2 1 1 58 3 1 278
Green, Chad 2017: 231 34 10 0 4 17 1 2 2 103 5 2 253
Green, Chad proj: 231 47 11 0 9 18 1 2 2 87 4 2 254
Heller, Ben 2017: 36 5 0 1 0 6 1 0 0 9 1 0 43
Heller, Ben proj: 36 8 2 1 2 5 1 0 1 8 2 0 43
Herrera, Ronald 2017: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Herrera, Ronald proj: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Holder, Jonathan 2017: 159 45 8 1 5 8 0 1 3 40 1 0 171
Holder, Jonathan proj: 157 44 8 1 5 10 1 1 2 37 1 0 171
Kahnle, Tommy 2017: 101 25 5 0 1 10 2 0 2 36 0 0 115
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 99 22 5 0 2 14 1 1 0 31 2 0 115
Layne, Tommy 2017: 54 16 3 1 1 8 0 0 1 9 1 0 63
Layne, Tommy proj: 54 13 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 13 1 1 63
Mitchell, Bryan 2017: 139 42 10 0 2 13 0 0 1 17 1 0 153
Mitchell, Bryan proj: 136 39 8 1 2 15 0 0 2 22 1 1 153
Montgomery, Jordan 2017: 592 140 20 3 21 51 3 2 1 144 2 1 649
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 592 140 20 3 21 51 3 2 1 144 2 1 649
Pineda, Michael 2017: 383 103 14 0 20 21 4 0 2 92 6 3 410
Pineda, Michael proj: 381 95 19 2 13 23 2 1 2 100 6 5 409
Robertson, David 2017: 118 14 3 0 2 12 1 0 1 51 0 0 132
Robertson, David proj: 117 24 4 1 3 13 1 1 1 43 3 1 133
Sabathia, CC 2017: 566 139 20 3 21 50 0 2 5 120 4 5 623
Sabathia, CC proj: 565 141 28 2 15 45 4 4 5 128 8 4 623
Severino, Luis 2017: 721 150 30 0 21 51 2 3 6 230 4 2 783
Severino, Luis proj: 717 163 37 1 24 57 1 2 6 204 5 3 783
Shreve, Chasen 2017: 171 35 11 0 8 25 2 0 0 58 0 0 198
Shreve, Chasen proj: 172 38 7 1 8 23 1 1 1 53 1 1 198
Smith, Caleb 2017: 75 21 4 0 4 10 1 0 0 18 0 0 86
Smith, Caleb proj: 75 21 4 0 4 10 1 0 0 18 0 0 86
Tanaka, Masahiro 2017: 701 180 42 0 35 41 2 1 7 194 4 3 752
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 706 169 37 2 27 35 4 2 4 177 5 2 751
Warren, Adam 2017: 202 35 6 0 4 15 5 0 1 54 3 1 223
Warren, Adam proj: 200 47 9 1 5 18 2 1 2 46 2 1 223
Webb, Tyler 2017: 19 3 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
Webb, Tyler proj: 20 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5472 1248 243 12 192 504 31 18 53 1560 65 26 6078
PROJECTED: 5501 1281 251 19 177 476 31 25 42 1509 71 30 6075
difference: -29 -33 -8 -7 +15 +28 0 -7 +11 +51 -6 -4 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .228 .233
Slugging Average: .382 .382
Walks (per PA): .083 .078
SOs (per PA): .257 .248
On-Base Average: .297 .296
Power Factor: 1.68 1.64
OPS: .679 .678
TPP Runs (to date): 624 621

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.