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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Adams, Chance 2019: 111 39 12 0 7 11 0 0 2 23 0 0 124
Adams, Chance proj: 111 37 10 0 8 12 0 0 2 21 0 0 125
Barrett, Jake 2019: 17 6 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Barrett, Jake proj: 17 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Betances, Dellin 2019: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2
Betances, Dellin proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Britton, Zack 2019: 209 38 6 0 3 32 2 1 1 53 1 1 245
Britton, Zack proj: 218 51 8 0 4 23 1 1 1 49 2 1 244
Cessa, Luis 2019: 305 75 13 1 14 31 4 0 3 75 4 2 343
Cessa, Luis proj: 311 79 15 1 15 26 2 1 3 66 3 2 343
Chapman, Aroldis 2019: 206 38 7 0 3 25 3 0 1 85 4 0 235
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 204 33 6 0 3 27 1 0 3 96 5 2 235
Cortes Jr., Nestor 2019: 267 75 9 0 16 28 2 0 1 69 0 0 298
Cortes Jr., Nestor proj: 266 78 10 0 17 29 2 0 1 66 0 1 298
Dull, Ryan 2019: 12 5 4 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 15
Dull, Ryan proj: 14 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 15
Ford, Mike 2019: 12 6 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12
Ford, Mike proj: 12 6 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 12
Gearrin, Cory 2019: 57 17 2 1 2 4 0 0 0 8 2 0 61
Gearrin, Cory proj: 53 13 2 1 1 6 0 0 1 13 2 0 60
German, Domingo 2019: 548 125 27 0 30 39 1 1 5 153 1 4 594
German, Domingo proj: 538 125 28 2 27 47 2 1 6 157 5 2 594
Green, Chad 2019: 267 66 14 2 10 19 3 0 6 98 6 2 295
Green, Chad proj: 270 60 13 1 10 19 2 1 3 98 6 3 295
Hale, David 2019: 148 39 12 2 2 7 1 0 1 23 0 0 157
Hale, David proj: 143 40 9 1 4 12 1 1 1 24 4 0 158
Happ, J.A. 2019: 622 160 27 1 34 49 2 0 5 140 2 1 678
Happ, J.A. proj: 609 152 32 3 21 57 4 4 3 141 7 3 677
Harvey, Joe 2019: 39 11 1 1 1 7 1 0 1 11 4 0 48
Harvey, Joe proj: 39 10 1 1 2 7 1 0 1 10 3 1 48
Heller, Ben 2019: 24 6 1 0 1 3 0 1 0 9 0 1 28
Heller, Ben proj: 24 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 6 1 0 28
Holder, Jonathan 2019: 168 43 7 1 8 11 0 0 2 46 2 0 181
Holder, Jonathan proj: 166 41 9 1 5 12 1 1 2 41 2 1 182
Kahnle, Tommy 2019: 225 45 8 1 9 20 1 0 2 88 3 0 248
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 216 47 10 1 6 28 3 1 1 72 3 0 249
King, Michael 2019: 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 9
King, Michael proj: 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 9
Lail, Brady 2019: 9 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Lail, Brady proj: 9 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Loaisiga, Jonathan 2019: 118 31 7 0 6 16 4 0 1 37 4 0 139
Loaisiga, Jonathan proj: 120 32 8 0 5 16 2 0 1 39 3 0 139
Lyons, Tyler 2019: 31 7 1 0 3 2 0 0 1 12 0 0 34
Lyons, Tyler proj: 30 7 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 33
Mantiply, Joe 2019: 12 3 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 14
Mantiply, Joe proj: 12 5 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 14
Montgomery, Jordan 2019: 19 7 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 19
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 17 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Ottavino, Adam 2019: 238 47 9 1 5 40 3 0 2 88 15 1 283
Ottavino, Adam proj: 246 57 9 1 6 30 3 2 3 77 12 2 284
Paxton, James 2019: 570 138 30 2 23 55 4 2 2 186 7 4 633
Paxton, James proj: 579 138 27 2 16 47 4 2 2 167 6 3 634
Romine, Austin 2019: 7 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Romine, Austin proj: 7 4 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
Sabathia, CC 2019: 423 112 23 0 27 39 1 2 3 107 9 2 468
Sabathia, CC proj: 424 106 21 2 12 34 3 3 4 97 6 3 468
Severino, Luis 2019: 41 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 1 17 5 0 48
Severino, Luis proj: 44 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 13 1 0 47
Tanaka, Masahiro 2019: 713 186 43 4 28 40 4 0 2 149 2 5 759
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 711 173 39 2 28 37 4 2 4 175 5 3 758
Tarpley, Stephen 2019: 103 34 6 0 6 15 0 0 2 34 0 1 120
Tarpley, Stephen proj: 103 30 5 0 5 16 0 0 2 35 2 1 121
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5532 1373 277 18 247 507 36 7 44 1532 71 24 6126
PROJECTED: 5524 1355 272 19 207 502 36 20 45 1490 78 28 6127
difference: +8 +18 +5 -1 +40 +5 0 -13 -1 +42 -7 -4 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .248 .245
Slugging Average: .439 .414
Walks (per PA): .083 .082
SOs (per PA): .250 .243
On-Base Average: .314 .310
Power Factor: 1.77 1.69
OPS: .753 .724
TPP Runs (to date): 750 703

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 47 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.