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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Betances, Dellin 2017: 51 8 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 26 2 1 60
Betances, Dellin proj: 53 9 2 0 1 6 0 0 1 24 3 0 60
Cessa, Luis 2017: 12 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 13
Cessa, Luis proj: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Chapman, Aroldis 2017: 50 12 2 0 0 6 0 0 1 21 2 0 57
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 50 8 1 0 1 7 0 0 1 24 1 1 58
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 67 9 0 0 2 7 0 2 1 27 2 0 77
Clippard, Tyler proj: 68 13 2 0 2 8 1 1 0 21 1 0 78
Gallegos, Giovanny 2017: 23 7 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 27
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 23 7 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 27
Green, Chad 2017: 28 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 11 1 0 30
Green, Chad proj: 27 7 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 8 1 0 29
Holder, Jonathan 2017: 75 19 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 20 1 0 78
Holder, Jonathan proj: 73 18 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 17 1 0 79
Layne, Tommy 2017: 47 15 3 1 1 5 0 0 1 9 1 0 53
Layne, Tommy proj: 46 11 2 0 1 6 0 1 1 12 1 1 54
Mitchell, Bryan 2017: 46 11 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 7 1 0 52
Mitchell, Bryan proj: 46 13 2 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 1 0 53
Montgomery, Jordan 2017: 149 37 4 2 4 18 1 0 1 37 1 0 169
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 149 37 4 2 4 18 1 0 1 37 1 0 169
Pineda, Michael 2017: 205 47 8 0 11 9 1 0 2 61 4 2 217
Pineda, Michael proj: 202 49 10 1 7 12 1 1 1 54 3 3 217
Sabathia, CC 2017: 198 51 3 1 7 20 0 1 3 37 1 0 222
Sabathia, CC proj: 201 50 10 1 5 16 1 2 2 46 3 1 222
Severino, Luis 2017: 177 40 6 0 7 13 1 1 1 54 1 0 193
Severino, Luis proj: 176 43 10 0 7 15 0 0 2 45 2 1 193
Shreve, Chasen 2017: 38 4 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 12 0 0 44
Shreve, Chasen proj: 38 8 1 0 2 5 0 0 0 11 0 0 43
Tanaka, Masahiro 2017: 200 62 16 0 13 15 1 0 3 39 1 1 219
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 206 49 11 1 8 10 2 1 1 49 2 1 220
Warren, Adam 2017: 82 12 3 0 0 8 3 0 1 22 0 0 94
Warren, Adam proj: 84 20 4 0 2 8 1 1 1 19 1 1 95
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1448 341 51 4 47 131 8 4 14 389 18 4 1605
PROJECTED: 1454 345 63 5 45 128 9 7 12 382 21 9 1610
difference: -6 -4 -12 -1 +2 +3 -1 -3 +2 +7 -3 -5 -5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .235 .237
Slugging Average: .374 .380
Walks (per PA): .082 .080
SOs (per PA): .242 .238
On-Base Average: .303 .301
Power Factor: 1.59 1.6
OPS: .676 .682
TPP Runs (to date): 167 167

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 0 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.