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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Adams, Chance 2018: 30 8 1 0 3 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 34
Adams, Chance proj: 30 8 1 0 3 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 34
Betances, Dellin 2018: 237 44 6 0 7 26 1 3 5 115 13 2 272
Betances, Dellin proj: 235 40 7 0 5 30 1 1 4 109 13 2 271
Britton, Zach 2018: 92 18 1 0 2 11 1 0 2 21 3 0 106
Britton, Zach proj: 95 23 4 0 2 10 1 1 0 21 1 0 107
Cessa, Luis 2018: 181 51 12 0 5 13 0 1 0 39 0 0 195
Cessa, Luis proj: 179 46 9 0 9 13 0 1 2 35 2 1 195
Chapman, Aroldis 2018: 177 24 8 0 2 30 0 0 5 93 3 0 212
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 184 29 5 0 3 25 1 0 3 88 4 2 213
Cole, A.J. 2018: 151 39 8 0 9 16 1 0 0 49 1 0 168
Cole, A.J. proj: 147 40 7 1 8 16 2 2 1 38 2 1 168
Gallegos, Giovanny 2018: 36 10 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 10 1 2 40
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 37 10 2 0 2 2 0 1 0 10 0 1 40
German, Domingo 2018: 335 81 19 4 15 33 2 0 5 102 7 0 375
German, Domingo proj: 331 79 19 3 14 36 3 1 4 103 6 0 375
Gray, Sonny 2018: 511 138 34 0 14 57 5 1 8 123 7 1 582
Gray, Sonny proj: 525 126 23 1 13 48 4 2 3 122 6 2 582
Green, Chad 2018: 279 64 13 0 9 15 3 0 1 94 8 6 298
Green, Chad proj: 275 58 13 0 10 19 2 1 2 99 6 4 299
Hale, David 2018: 44 12 4 0 2 1 0 0 1 6 0 0 46
Hale, David proj: 42 12 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 46
Happ, J.A. 2018: 235 51 10 1 10 16 1 1 5 63 1 2 258
Happ, J.A. proj: 231 57 12 1 7 22 2 2 1 54 3 1 258
Holder, Jonathan 2018: 248 53 14 0 4 19 2 2 1 60 4 2 272
Holder, Jonathan proj: 249 60 14 1 6 18 2 2 2 60 3 1 273
Kahnle, Tommy 2018: 90 23 9 0 3 15 2 0 0 30 0 1 107
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 92 21 5 0 2 13 1 0 0 29 2 0 106
Kontos, George 2018: 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6
Kontos, George proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Loaisiga, Jonathan 2018: 96 26 7 0 3 12 0 0 0 33 2 0 108
Loaisiga, Jonathan proj: 96 26 7 0 3 12 0 0 0 33 2 0 108
Lynn, Lance 2018: 217 58 13 1 2 14 0 0 0 61 3 2 231
Lynn, Lance proj: 204 50 10 2 5 21 1 2 2 52 2 2 230
Montgomery, Jordan 2018: 104 25 3 0 3 12 0 0 0 23 0 0 116
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 106 25 3 0 4 10 0 0 0 25 0 0 116
Robertson, David 2018: 252 46 14 2 7 26 1 4 0 91 2 1 283
Robertson, David proj: 251 52 9 1 6 27 1 2 1 92 7 1 282
Sabathia, CC 2018: 600 150 29 1 19 51 3 0 11 140 11 4 665
Sabathia, CC proj: 603 151 29 2 16 49 4 4 5 137 9 4 665
Severino, Luis 2018: 726 173 39 3 19 46 2 1 5 220 10 5 780
Severino, Luis proj: 718 166 38 1 22 53 1 1 6 209 7 4 779
Sheffield, Justus 2018: 11 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Sheffield, Justus proj: 11 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Shreve, Chasen 2018: 149 39 8 1 8 18 2 0 1 46 0 0 170
Shreve, Chasen proj: 147 34 7 1 7 20 1 1 1 45 1 1 170
Tanaka, Masahiro 2018: 588 141 32 0 25 35 2 3 7 159 7 2 635
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 595 142 32 1 23 30 3 2 4 152 5 2 634
Tarpley, Stephen 2018: 34 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 13 2 0 40
Tarpley, Stephen proj: 34 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 13 2 0 40
Warren, Adam 2018: 114 26 5 0 3 12 1 0 1 37 3 1 128
Warren, Adam proj: 115 27 5 0 3 11 1 1 1 27 1 1 129
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5543 1311 293 13 177 494 29 17 58 1634 88 31 6141
PROJECTED: 5537 1293 266 15 175 502 31 27 42 1565 85 30 6139
difference: +6 +18 +27 -2 +2 -8 -2 -10 +16 +69 +3 +1 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .237 .234
Slugging Average: .390 .382
Walks (per PA): .080 .082
SOs (per PA): .266 .255
On-Base Average: .303 .299
Power Factor: 1.65 1.63
OPS: .693 .681
TPP Runs (to date): 651 634

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 17 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.