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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 21 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Britton, Zack 2019: 34 9 2 0 0 4 1 0 0 10 1 1 39
Britton, Zack proj: 35 8 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 0 0 39
Cessa, Luis 2019: 35 7 3 0 0 4 1 0 0 11 2 0 40
Cessa, Luis proj: 37 9 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 40
Chapman, Aroldis 2019: 31 7 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 2 0 32
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 28 4 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 13 1 0 32
German, Domingo 2019: 67 9 2 0 2 7 0 0 0 23 0 0 74
German, Domingo proj: 66 15 3 1 3 7 0 0 1 21 1 0 74
Green, Chad 2019: 34 12 2 0 3 3 0 0 1 7 0 1 38
Green, Chad proj: 35 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 12 1 0 37
Happ, J.A. 2019: 79 25 6 0 6 6 0 0 0 17 1 0 85
Happ, J.A. proj: 76 19 4 0 3 7 1 1 0 18 1 0 85
Harvey, Joe 2019: 16 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 6 2 0 19
Harvey, Joe proj: 16 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 6 2 0 19
Holder, Jonathan 2019: 48 14 4 0 2 2 0 0 1 11 0 0 51
Holder, Jonathan proj: 47 12 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 11 0 0 50
Kahnle, Tommy 2019: 26 4 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 10 2 0 32
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 27 6 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 31
Loaisiga, Jonathan 2019: 24 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 9 3 0 31
Loaisiga, Jonathan proj: 27 7 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 31
Ottavino, Adam 2019: 39 7 1 0 2 9 1 0 0 17 3 1 49
Ottavino, Adam proj: 43 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 13 2 0 49
Paxton, James 2019: 108 25 6 1 3 8 0 0 1 43 3 0 117
Paxton, James proj: 107 25 5 0 3 8 1 0 0 31 1 0 116
Sabathia, CC 2019: 33 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 8 3 0 37
Sabathia, CC proj: 34 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 37
Tanaka, Masahiro 2019: 109 28 10 1 3 8 0 0 0 28 1 1 117
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 110 26 6 0 4 6 1 0 1 28 1 0 118
Tarpley, Stephen 2019: 12 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 14
Tarpley, Stephen proj: 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 14
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 695 163 39 2 24 70 7 0 3 214 23 4 775
PROJECTED: 700 163 34 1 22 64 4 1 3 198 13 0 772
difference: -5 0 +5 +1 +2 +6 +3 -1 0 +16 +10 +4 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .235 .233
Slugging Average: .400 .379
Walks (per PA): .090 .083
SOs (per PA): .276 .255
On-Base Average: .305 .298
Power Factor: 1.71 1.63
OPS: .705 .676
TPP Runs (to date): 86 80

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 6 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 22 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.