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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Adams, Chance 2018: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 18
Adams, Chance proj: 17 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 18
Betances, Dellin 2018: 178 28 3 0 5 20 0 1 4 90 12 2 203
Betances, Dellin proj: 176 29 5 0 3 23 1 1 3 82 10 2 204
Britton, Zach 2018: 37 10 1 0 1 6 0 0 2 8 0 0 45
Britton, Zach proj: 40 10 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 0 0 44
Cessa, Luis 2018: 107 29 5 0 4 11 0 1 0 21 0 0 119
Cessa, Luis proj: 108 27 5 0 6 9 0 0 1 20 1 1 118
Chapman, Aroldis 2018: 162 22 8 0 1 26 0 0 5 84 3 0 193
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 167 26 5 0 2 22 1 0 2 80 4 2 192
Cole, A.J. 2018: 118 29 6 0 5 11 1 0 0 43 0 0 130
Cole, A.J. proj: 114 31 6 1 6 12 1 1 1 30 1 0 129
Gallegos, Giovanny 2018: 36 10 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 10 1 2 40
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 37 10 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 10 0 1 41
German, Domingo 2018: 321 77 18 4 15 32 2 0 4 95 6 0 359
German, Domingo proj: 317 75 18 3 14 35 3 1 3 96 5 0 359
Gray, Sonny 2018: 448 124 31 0 13 51 5 1 8 106 6 1 513
Gray, Sonny proj: 463 111 21 1 12 42 4 2 3 107 5 2 514
Green, Chad 2018: 218 51 10 0 7 11 3 0 1 68 7 4 233
Green, Chad proj: 214 46 10 0 8 15 2 1 1 76 5 2 233
Hale, David 2018: 44 12 4 0 2 1 0 0 1 6 0 0 46
Hale, David proj: 42 12 3 0 1 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 46
Happ, J.A. 2018: 84 15 3 0 4 7 0 1 4 23 0 1 96
Happ, J.A. proj: 86 21 5 0 3 8 1 1 0 20 1 0 96
Holder, Jonathan 2018: 189 40 11 0 3 12 2 2 1 48 3 2 206
Holder, Jonathan proj: 189 46 10 0 4 12 1 1 2 46 2 1 205
Kahnle, Tommy 2018: 43 8 4 0 1 12 1 0 0 13 0 0 56
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 48 11 2 0 1 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 56
Kontos, George 2018: 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6
Kontos, George proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Loaisiga, Jonathan 2018: 66 15 4 0 1 8 0 0 0 21 1 0 74
Loaisiga, Jonathan proj: 66 15 4 0 1 8 0 0 0 21 1 0 74
Lynn, Lance 2018: 77 18 4 0 0 7 0 0 0 27 2 0 84
Lynn, Lance proj: 74 18 4 1 2 8 0 1 1 19 1 1 84
Montgomery, Jordan 2018: 104 25 3 0 3 12 0 0 0 23 0 0 116
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 106 25 3 0 4 10 0 0 0 25 0 0 116
Robertson, David 2018: 197 36 11 1 5 18 1 4 0 69 2 1 220
Robertson, David proj: 195 40 7 1 5 21 1 1 1 71 5 1 219
Sabathia, CC 2018: 464 112 23 1 16 41 3 0 9 106 11 3 517
Sabathia, CC proj: 468 117 23 2 13 38 3 3 4 106 7 3 516
Severino, Luis 2018: 601 143 29 2 17 39 1 1 4 181 8 5 646
Severino, Luis proj: 595 137 30 1 19 44 1 1 5 173 6 3 646
Shreve, Chasen 2018: 149 39 8 1 8 18 2 0 1 46 0 0 170
Shreve, Chasen proj: 148 34 7 1 7 19 1 1 1 46 1 1 170
Tanaka, Masahiro 2018: 426 99 22 0 22 29 0 2 5 117 4 1 462
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 433 103 23 1 17 22 2 1 3 110 3 1 461
Warren, Adam 2018: 114 26 5 0 3 12 1 0 1 37 3 1 128
Warren, Adam proj: 114 27 5 0 3 11 1 1 1 27 1 1 128
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4206 972 215 9 140 388 22 14 50 1246 69 23 4680
PROJECTED: 4222 975 200 12 136 378 24 18 32 1199 61 22 4674
difference: -16 -3 +15 -3 +4 +10 -2 -4 +18 +47 +8 +1 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .231 .231
Slugging Average: .386 .381
Walks (per PA): .083 .081
SOs (per PA): .266 .256
On-Base Average: .301 .296
Power Factor: 1.67 1.65
OPS: .688 .677
TPP Runs (to date): 491 477

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 14 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.