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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Betances, Dellin 2017: 120 18 3 0 1 27 0 0 5 63 7 2 152
Betances, Dellin proj: 132 23 4 0 2 17 1 1 2 61 8 1 153
Cessa, Luis 2017: 108 29 8 1 4 11 0 0 3 19 1 2 122
Cessa, Luis proj: 112 28 5 0 6 7 0 0 2 19 1 1 121
Chapman, Aroldis 2017: 102 26 8 0 0 12 0 0 2 38 5 2 116
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 101 16 3 0 1 13 0 0 1 49 2 1 115
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 134 28 6 1 7 19 1 3 1 42 4 1 158
Clippard, Tyler proj: 138 27 5 1 5 16 1 1 1 42 2 1 157
Gallegos, Giovanny 2017: 49 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 11 0 0 54
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 49 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 0 11 0 0 54
German, Domingo 2017: 40 11 3 0 1 7 1 0 0 11 0 0 48
German, Domingo proj: 40 11 3 0 1 7 1 0 0 11 0 0 48
Green, Chad 2017: 131 16 4 0 3 11 0 2 2 54 3 0 146
Green, Chad proj: 132 28 6 0 6 11 0 1 1 45 3 0 145
Heller, Ben 2017: 8 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 10
Heller, Ben proj: 8 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 9
Herrera, Ronald 2017: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Herrera, Ronald proj: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 14
Holder, Jonathan 2017: 144 39 7 0 5 8 0 1 1 34 1 0 154
Holder, Jonathan proj: 142 38 7 0 5 10 1 1 1 32 1 0 155
Kahnle, Tommy 2017: 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 10
Kahnle, Tommy proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Layne, Tommy 2017: 54 16 3 1 1 8 0 0 1 9 1 0 63
Layne, Tommy proj: 54 13 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 13 1 1 63
Mitchell, Bryan 2017: 86 21 5 0 1 9 0 0 0 12 1 0 95
Mitchell, Bryan proj: 84 23 5 0 1 10 0 0 1 14 1 1 95
Montgomery, Jordan 2017: 392 97 14 3 15 32 1 2 1 93 1 1 428
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 392 97 14 3 15 32 1 2 1 93 1 1 428
Pineda, Michael 2017: 383 103 14 0 20 21 4 0 2 92 6 3 410
Pineda, Michael proj: 381 95 19 2 13 23 2 1 2 100 6 5 409
Robertson, David 2017: 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 10
Robertson, David proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Sabathia, CC 2017: 336 79 10 2 9 35 0 1 4 71 2 2 376
Sabathia, CC proj: 341 85 17 1 9 27 2 3 3 77 5 2 376
Severino, Luis 2017: 453 104 21 0 12 30 2 3 4 136 2 1 492
Severino, Luis proj: 450 109 26 0 15 36 1 1 4 120 3 2 492
Shreve, Chasen 2017: 98 21 6 0 2 14 2 0 0 31 0 0 114
Shreve, Chasen proj: 99 22 4 1 4 13 0 1 1 29 1 1 114
Smith, Caleb 2017: 29 9 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 31
Smith, Caleb proj: 29 9 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 31
Tanaka, Masahiro 2017: 464 128 28 0 26 27 1 1 7 118 3 2 500
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 470 113 25 1 18 23 3 2 3 115 3 2 501
Warren, Adam 2017: 142 23 5 0 1 11 4 0 1 39 2 0 158
Warren, Adam proj: 142 33 6 1 4 13 1 1 1 32 2 1 158
Webb, Tyler 2017: 19 3 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
Webb, Tyler proj: 20 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3323 791 152 8 113 295 17 13 36 902 41 16 3684
PROJECTED: 3346 800 159 10 111 278 15 16 26 886 42 20 3681
difference: -23 -9 -7 -2 +2 +17 +2 -3 +10 +16 -1 -4 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .238 .239
Slugging Average: .391 .392
Walks (per PA): .080 .075
SOs (per PA): .245 .240
On-Base Average: .305 .300
Power Factor: 1.64 1.64
OPS: .695 .692
TPP Runs (to date): 395 389

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 6 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.