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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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NYY "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Tuesday, 25 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Betances, Dellin 2017: 21 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 9 1 1 25
Betances, Dellin proj: 22 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 10 1 0 25
Chapman, Aroldis 2017: 21 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 23
Chapman, Aroldis proj: 20 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 23
Clippard, Tyler 2017: 27 4 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 12 1 0 31
Clippard, Tyler proj: 27 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 30
Holder, Jonathan 2017: 26 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 26
Holder, Jonathan proj: 24 8 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 26
Layne, Tommy 2017: 16 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 18
Layne, Tommy proj: 15 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
Mitchell, Bryan 2017: 29 2 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 32
Mitchell, Bryan proj: 28 7 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 31
Montgomery, Jordan 2017: 62 19 2 1 2 6 1 0 1 16 0 0 70
Montgomery, Jordan proj: 62 19 2 1 2 6 1 0 1 16 0 0 70
Pineda, Michael 2017: 88 21 1 0 5 3 1 0 0 29 2 1 92
Pineda, Michael proj: 85 21 4 1 3 5 1 0 1 23 1 1 92
Sabathia, CC 2017: 86 19 0 1 3 9 0 1 1 14 0 0 97
Sabathia, CC proj: 88 22 4 0 2 7 1 1 1 20 1 1 98
Severino, Luis 2017: 74 14 1 0 4 2 0 0 0 27 0 0 76
Severino, Luis proj: 70 17 4 0 3 6 0 0 1 18 1 0 77
Shreve, Chasen 2017: 11 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Shreve, Chasen proj: 11 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
Tanaka, Masahiro 2017: 85 25 9 0 3 10 1 0 2 19 1 0 98
Tanaka, Masahiro proj: 92 22 5 0 3 4 1 0 0 22 1 0 97
Warren, Adam 2017: 35 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 12 0 0 37
Warren, Adam proj: 33 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 36
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 581 130 19 2 19 47 3 2 5 166 6 2 638
PROJECTED: 577 142 26 2 16 48 4 1 4 152 5 2 634
difference: +4 -12 -7 0 +3 -1 -1 +1 +1 +14 +1 0 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .224 .246
Slugging Average: .361 .381
Walks (per PA): .074 .075
SOs (per PA): .260 .238
On-Base Average: .285 .306
Power Factor: 1.62 1.55
OPS: .647 .687
TPP Runs (to date): 61 66

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 5 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 26 April 2017, at 6:55 am Pacific Time.