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PHI "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 June 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Arano, Victor 2018: 94 20 4 1 1 7 0 0 0 28 2 0 101
Arano, Victor proj: 93 18 4 1 1 8 0 0 0 29 2 0 101
Arrieta, Jake 2018: 292 71 13 0 7 26 4 1 3 54 4 4 326
Arrieta, Jake proj: 293 65 13 1 7 27 2 2 3 72 9 2 327
Curtis, Zac 2018: 22 5 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 6 0 0 30
Curtis, Zac proj: 23 5 1 0 1 5 0 0 1 5 0 0 29
Davis, Austin 2018: 10 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 11
Davis, Austin proj: 10 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 11
Dominguez, Seranthony 2018: 82 13 2 0 1 4 1 0 2 31 0 0 89
Dominguez, Seranthony proj: 82 13 2 0 1 4 1 0 2 31 0 0 89
Eflin, Zach 2018: 188 46 15 0 4 12 3 2 2 51 5 2 207
Eflin, Zach proj: 189 52 13 1 9 11 3 1 2 32 4 1 206
Florimon, Pedro 2018: 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Florimon, Pedro proj: 7 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Garcia, Luis 2018: 93 21 4 0 2 6 0 0 4 23 0 0 103
Garcia, Luis proj: 90 23 4 0 2 12 1 1 1 20 1 0 105
Hunter, Tommy 2018: 97 29 8 1 1 3 0 0 1 21 0 0 101
Hunter, Tommy proj: 94 25 4 0 3 5 0 0 1 16 1 1 100
Hutchison, Drew 2018: 77 21 2 1 4 13 2 1 1 19 0 0 94
Hutchison, Drew proj: 84 23 5 0 3 7 1 0 1 20 2 1 93
Leiter Jr., Mark 2018: 33 8 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 35
Leiter Jr., Mark proj: 32 8 1 0 2 3 0 0 1 8 1 0 36
Lively, Ben 2018: 101 34 7 1 4 10 1 0 3 22 2 1 115
Lively, Ben proj: 103 29 8 1 4 8 1 0 3 17 1 1 115
Milner, Hoby 2018: 21 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 25
Milner, Hoby proj: 21 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 25
Morgan, Adam 2018: 82 21 2 0 4 10 1 0 0 20 3 0 93
Morgan, Adam proj: 86 24 5 0 4 6 1 0 1 18 2 0 94
Neris, Hector 2018: 107 31 5 1 8 10 0 2 1 35 0 0 120
Neris, Hector proj: 107 25 5 0 4 10 1 1 2 34 1 0 121
Nola, Aaron 2018: 358 74 15 0 6 29 3 3 2 99 14 4 395
Nola, Aaron proj: 362 87 15 2 9 26 2 2 3 99 9 2 395
Pivetta, Nick 2018: 317 80 12 1 10 24 4 5 3 101 5 5 353
Pivetta, Nick proj: 312 84 15 2 13 31 4 3 3 91 5 4 353
Ramos, Edubray 2018: 103 22 1 1 2 11 1 0 1 32 1 2 116
Ramos, Edubray proj: 104 25 3 1 2 11 0 1 0 32 1 2 116
Rios, Yacksel 2018: 79 23 4 1 2 7 0 0 2 18 5 0 88
Rios, Yacksel proj: 78 21 3 1 3 9 0 1 1 19 3 0 89
Thompson, Jake 2018: 43 12 6 0 1 4 0 1 0 10 1 0 48
Thompson, Jake proj: 41 11 3 0 2 5 0 0 1 7 0 0 47
Valentin, Jesmuel 2018: 5 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Valentin, Jesmuel proj: 5 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Velasquez, Vince 2018: 305 74 17 2 12 29 1 4 2 97 2 1 341
Velasquez, Vince proj: 303 78 16 2 13 31 2 4 2 89 3 3 342
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 2516 618 122 10 74 221 22 19 28 684 44 19 2806
PROJECTED: 2519 628 124 12 85 226 19 16 29 647 45 17 2809
difference: -3 -10 -2 -2 -11 -5 +3 +3 -1 +37 -1 +2 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .246 .249
Slugging Average: .390 .409
Walks (per PA): .079 .081
SOs (per PA): .244 .231
On-Base Average: .309 .314
Power Factor: 1.59 1.64
OPS: .699 .724
TPP Runs (to date): 303 323

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 20 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 June 2018, at 7:02 am Pacific Time.