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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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PIT "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bastardo, Antonio 2017: 35 15 3 0 4 7 0 0 0 5 2 0 42
Bastardo, Antonio proj: 36 8 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 12 1 0 41
Cole, Gerrit 2017: 116 29 6 1 5 6 0 2 0 27 4 0 124
Cole, Gerrit proj: 113 29 5 1 2 8 1 1 1 28 4 1 124
Glasnow, Tyler 2017: 69 23 6 1 1 13 0 0 2 17 6 1 84
Glasnow, Tyler proj: 70 20 4 1 1 12 0 0 2 18 7 0 84
Hudson, Daniel 2017: 41 13 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 10 2 0 45
Hudson, Daniel proj: 41 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 44
Kuhl, Chad 2017: 75 21 7 2 1 11 0 1 2 15 2 0 89
Kuhl, Chad proj: 79 21 7 1 2 7 0 1 1 16 1 0 88
LeBlanc, Wade 2017: 41 7 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 3 1 0 44
LeBlanc, Wade proj: 40 11 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 1 43
Neverauskas, Dovydas 2017: 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Neverauskas, Dovydas proj: 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7
Nicasio, Juan 2017: 35 9 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 9 1 1 40
Nicasio, Juan proj: 36 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 39
Nova, Ivan 2017: 102 23 5 0 2 1 0 0 1 15 1 0 104
Nova, Ivan proj: 94 26 6 0 3 7 1 0 1 18 1 1 103
Rivero, Felipe 2017: 52 11 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 12 0 1 55
Rivero, Felipe proj: 50 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 14 0 0 55
Taillon, Jameson 2017: 92 21 5 0 2 10 0 0 1 20 2 0 103
Taillon, Jameson proj: 96 24 6 0 3 5 0 1 1 21 2 0 103
Watson, Tony 2017: 38 9 0 0 1 5 0 0 3 5 0 0 46
Watson, Tony proj: 41 9 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 10 1 0 45
Williams, Trevor 2017: 35 10 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 9 0 1 39
Williams, Trevor proj: 35 11 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 8 0 1 38
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 738 193 40 4 20 66 2 5 11 148 21 4 822
PROJECTED: 738 192 42 3 19 63 2 3 8 170 19 4 814
difference: 0 +1 -2 +1 +1 +3 0 +2 +3 -22 +2 0 +8
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .262 .260
Slugging Average: .408 .402
Walks (per PA): .080 .077
SOs (per PA): .180 .207
On-Base Average: .328 .323
Power Factor: 1.56 1.55
OPS: .736 .726
TPP Runs (to date): 100 96

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 4 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.