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SEA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 21 April 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Altavilla, Dan 2018: 36 7 2 0 2 7 0 0 0 13 0 0 43
Altavilla, Dan proj: 38 9 2 0 2 4 1 0 0 11 1 0 43
Bradford, Chasen 2018: 35 7 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 1 0 38
Bradford, Chasen proj: 34 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 37
Diaz, Edwin 2018: 34 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 19 3 0 43
Diaz, Edwin proj: 38 7 1 0 1 4 0 0 1 16 2 0 43
Gonzales, Marco 2018: 70 23 4 0 2 3 0 0 1 19 1 0 74
Gonzales, Marco proj: 67 21 3 0 3 6 1 0 1 14 1 1 75
Hernandez, Felix 2018: 99 23 4 0 5 10 1 1 3 20 0 0 114
Hernandez, Felix proj: 104 25 4 0 2 8 1 1 1 26 2 1 115
Lawrence, Casey 2018: 17 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 1 0 20
Lawrence, Casey proj: 18 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 20
LeBlanc, Wade 2018: 26 8 1 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 0 0 32
LeBlanc, Wade proj: 29 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 31
Leake, Mike 2018: 91 22 8 0 3 10 0 0 1 15 1 0 102
Leake, Mike proj: 94 25 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 17 1 0 103
Miranda, Ariel 2018: 20 6 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Miranda, Ariel proj: 21 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
Motter, Taylor 2018: 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 6
Motter, Taylor proj: 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 7
Nicasio, Juan 2018: 36 9 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 8 0 0 38
Nicasio, Juan proj: 34 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 37
Paxton, James 2018: 100 25 7 0 4 12 1 1 1 34 0 1 115
Paxton, James proj: 105 25 5 0 2 8 1 0 0 27 1 0 114
Pazos, James 2018: 21 6 2 0 1 1 0 0 2 7 0 0 24
Pazos, James proj: 21 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 24
Rzepczynski, Marc 2018: 18 7 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 20
Rzepczynski, Marc proj: 17 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 19
Vincent, Nick 2018: 36 10 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 10 0 0 37
Vincent, Nick proj: 34 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 36
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 643 160 35 0 26 65 5 2 15 166 8 1 730
PROJECTED: 659 167 32 0 21 55 5 2 6 160 11 2 727
difference: -16 -7 +3 0 +5 +10 0 0 +9 +6 -3 -1 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .249 .253
Slugging Average: .425 .398
Walks (per PA): .089 .075
SOs (per PA): .227 .219
On-Base Average: .329 .314
Power Factor: 1.71 1.57
OPS: .753 .711
TPP Runs (to date): 90 82

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 8 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.