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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SEA "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 21 July 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Altavilla, Dan 2018: 68 11 2 0 2 15 0 0 2 23 2 0 85
Altavilla, Dan proj: 74 16 4 0 3 9 1 0 1 22 2 0 85
Bergman, Christian 2018: 41 8 3 0 2 2 0 1 0 5 0 0 44
Bergman, Christian proj: 41 13 3 0 2 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 43
Bradford, Chasen 2018: 138 31 6 0 6 8 1 0 3 28 4 1 150
Bradford, Chasen proj: 137 31 7 0 5 11 1 0 2 28 3 1 151
Colome, Alex 2018: 71 16 2 0 3 5 0 0 3 17 0 0 79
Colome, Alex proj: 71 17 3 0 2 6 1 0 1 17 0 0 79
Cook, Ryan 2018: 36 9 2 0 3 6 0 1 1 14 1 0 44
Cook, Ryan proj: 38 8 1 0 1 5 0 0 1 11 1 0 44
Diaz, Edwin 2018: 167 25 2 1 2 14 0 0 4 80 5 2 185
Diaz, Edwin proj: 165 31 4 0 5 17 1 0 3 70 6 1 186
Elias, Roenis 2018: 70 16 6 1 0 7 3 0 1 12 2 0 81
Elias, Roenis proj: 71 18 4 0 2 7 1 0 1 16 1 0 80
Festa, Matthew 2018: 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4
Festa, Matthew proj: 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4
Goeddel, Erik 2018: 24 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 9 1 0 29
Goeddel, Erik proj: 26 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Gonzales, Marco 2018: 426 110 23 1 10 22 4 1 5 98 2 4 458
Gonzales, Marco proj: 419 117 21 2 13 31 4 1 4 91 2 4 459
Hernandez, Felix 2018: 430 113 25 2 16 38 3 3 10 94 9 1 484
Hernandez, Felix proj: 441 106 19 2 11 34 2 2 4 110 9 3 483
Lawrence, Casey 2018: 41 12 3 1 0 5 0 0 2 9 1 0 48
Lawrence, Casey proj: 42 14 2 0 2 5 0 0 0 9 2 0 47
LeBlanc, Wade 2018: 368 90 18 1 14 19 2 0 2 76 4 2 391
LeBlanc, Wade proj: 355 94 20 2 13 28 2 3 2 66 4 4 390
Leake, Mike 2018: 479 133 29 3 16 29 1 1 3 75 1 3 513
Leake, Mike proj: 472 128 26 2 15 29 4 4 4 83 5 2 513
Miranda, Ariel 2018: 20 6 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Miranda, Ariel proj: 21 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 23
Morin, Mike 2018: 16 6 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 6 0 1 18
Morin, Mike proj: 16 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 17
Motter, Taylor 2018: 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 6
Motter, Taylor proj: 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 7
Nicasio, Juan 2018: 151 47 12 1 4 4 4 0 2 46 1 2 161
Nicasio, Juan proj: 145 39 9 2 4 13 1 1 1 34 2 1 161
Paxton, James 2018: 444 97 18 2 16 33 2 1 1 155 5 3 481
Paxton, James proj: 441 104 20 2 10 34 4 1 1 121 5 2 481
Pazos, James 2018: 122 29 7 0 1 5 1 0 4 30 1 0 132
Pazos, James proj: 116 29 5 0 3 11 2 1 3 33 3 0 133
Ramirez, Erasmo 2018: 42 14 4 1 7 1 1 0 1 6 0 0 45
Ramirez, Erasmo proj: 41 10 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 44
Romine, Andrew 2018: 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Romine, Andrew proj: 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Rumbelow, Nick 2018: 45 15 2 0 5 2 0 0 1 8 3 0 48
Rumbelow, Nick proj: 45 13 2 0 3 3 0 0 0 10 2 0 48
Rzepczynski, Marc 2018: 38 13 4 0 2 9 0 0 0 10 2 0 47
Rzepczynski, Marc proj: 41 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 10 1 0 47
Vincent, Nick 2018: 116 29 5 2 4 8 0 0 2 27 2 0 126
Vincent, Nick proj: 116 27 5 0 3 8 1 1 1 31 1 1 127
Whalen, Rob 2018: 13 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
Whalen, Rob proj: 12 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 13
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 3379 840 176 17 114 245 23 8 48 834 47 19 3703
PROJECTED: 3359 849 162 12 104 270 25 14 31 795 52 19 3699
difference: +20 -9 +14 +5 +10 -25 -2 -6 +17 +39 -5 0 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .249 .253
Slugging Average: .412 .401
Walks (per PA): .066 .073
SOs (per PA): .225 .215
On-Base Average: .306 .311
Power Factor: 1.66 1.59
OPS: .718 .712
TPP Runs (to date): 416 414

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 2 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 23 July 2018, at 7:00 am Pacific Time.