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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 633 179 36 6 17 43 5 10 1 73 4 2 692
Blach, Ty proj: 632 172 35 6 17 44 5 10 1 76 5 2 692
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 424 101 25 2 17 20 1 2 3 101 5 3 450
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 415 97 19 2 11 25 2 4 3 109 6 4 449
Cain, Matt 2017: 508 157 25 3 18 49 6 3 2 75 15 4 568
Cain, Matt proj: 507 121 26 4 14 46 4 6 4 111 10 5 567
Crick, Kyle 2017: 115 22 2 2 2 17 0 1 1 28 1 1 134
Crick, Kyle proj: 115 22 2 2 2 17 0 1 1 28 1 1 134
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 577 160 35 5 22 53 3 7 8 136 5 2 648
Cueto, Johnny proj: 586 142 29 3 16 44 3 6 9 132 3 4 648
Dyson, Sam 2017: 147 36 5 3 2 18 0 1 3 27 7 3 169
Dyson, Sam proj: 150 39 6 1 3 15 0 1 2 31 5 1 168
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 240 50 11 2 4 35 2 1 7 64 4 3 285
Gearrin, Cory proj: 247 56 10 3 4 30 2 1 6 65 7 2 286
Gomez, Roberto 2017: 25 9 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 26
Gomez, Roberto proj: 25 9 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 26
Kontos, George 2017: 201 52 13 0 8 17 1 4 0 55 5 0 223
Kontos, George proj: 203 47 9 1 5 16 2 1 1 45 5 1 223
Law, Derek 2017: 148 45 8 1 5 14 2 2 2 35 2 1 168
Law, Derek proj: 155 39 7 2 4 10 1 1 1 37 1 1 168
Melancon, Mark 2017: 123 37 8 1 3 6 0 0 1 29 1 0 130
Melancon, Mark proj: 121 27 4 0 2 7 1 0 1 30 1 0 130
Moore, Matt 2017: 706 200 44 9 27 67 4 6 7 148 8 4 790
Moore, Matt proj: 698 176 35 3 22 76 5 4 7 166 9 3 790
Moronta, Reyes 2017: 26 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 11 0 0 29
Moronta, Reyes proj: 26 6 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 11 0 0 29
Morris, Bryan 2017: 79 24 3 1 1 11 1 3 0 15 0 2 94
Morris, Bryan proj: 81 21 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 16 1 0 93
Okert, Steven 2017: 99 24 7 1 3 11 2 3 3 22 0 1 118
Okert, Steven proj: 103 25 5 1 3 10 1 2 2 24 0 1 118
Osich, Josh 2017: 172 48 8 1 7 27 0 1 1 43 1 0 201
Osich, Josh proj: 175 43 6 1 8 23 0 1 2 40 2 0 201
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 47 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 1 18 0 1 53
Ramirez, Neil proj: 45 10 2 0 2 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 53
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 801 204 40 12 30 32 4 4 6 205 6 7 847
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 770 193 37 7 24 59 5 5 7 184 16 6 846
Slania, Dan 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Slania, Dan proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Stratton, Chris 2017: 222 59 11 1 5 28 3 2 1 51 3 1 256
Stratton, Chris proj: 223 60 10 1 5 28 3 2 1 49 3 1 257
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 233 59 6 4 4 29 3 1 2 58 4 2 268
Strickland, Hunter proj: 242 54 7 2 4 21 2 0 2 64 5 3 267
Suarez, Albert 2017: 122 28 7 1 4 11 1 0 1 34 2 0 135
Suarez, Albert proj: 121 31 10 1 4 10 1 1 1 24 1 0 134
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5651 1515 297 58 182 496 39 51 50 1234 73 37 6287
PROJECTED: 5643 1390 262 43 153 501 39 47 52 1263 82 35 6282
difference: +8 +125 +35 +15 +29 -5 0 +4 -2 -29 -9 +2 +5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .268 .246
Slugging Average: .438 .389
Walks (per PA): .079 .080
SOs (per PA): .196 .201
On-Base Average: .328 .309
Power Factor: 1.63 1.58
OPS: .766 .699
TPP Runs (to date): 793 681

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 112 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.