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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 20 July 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Beede, Tyler 2018: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Beede, Tyler proj: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Blach, Ty 2018: 344 104 20 0 5 28 0 5 1 49 1 2 378
Blach, Ty proj: 345 97 19 2 8 25 2 5 1 44 2 1 378
Black, Ray 2018: 10 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 2 0 12
Black, Ray proj: 10 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 2 0 12
Bumgarner, Madison 2018: 187 42 10 1 5 17 1 2 1 41 2 0 208
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 192 45 9 1 5 12 1 2 2 50 3 2 209
Cueto, Johnny 2018: 151 32 5 0 5 11 0 1 4 35 0 0 167
Cueto, Johnny proj: 151 36 7 1 4 11 1 1 2 34 1 1 166
Dyson, Sam 2018: 162 37 15 1 4 14 3 0 1 36 8 4 180
Dyson, Sam proj: 160 41 7 1 3 16 1 1 2 33 5 2 180
Gearrin, Cory 2018: 120 33 6 0 5 13 0 1 3 31 4 0 137
Gearrin, Cory proj: 119 28 5 1 2 14 1 0 3 31 4 1 137
Gomez, Roberto 2018: 47 20 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 1 1 49
Gomez, Roberto proj: 47 19 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 9 1 1 49
Holland, Derek 2018: 378 95 25 2 13 38 5 5 1 103 5 2 427
Holland, Derek proj: 385 102 22 2 14 35 3 2 3 81 5 3 428
Johnson, Pierce 2018: 129 27 6 3 3 18 2 1 0 25 1 1 150
Johnson, Pierce proj: 129 28 6 3 3 18 2 1 0 26 1 1 150
Law, Derek 2018: 41 12 3 1 0 4 0 0 1 10 1 0 46
Law, Derek proj: 42 11 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 10 0 0 45
Melancon, Mark 2018: 61 15 3 0 0 5 0 0 1 11 0 2 67
Melancon, Mark proj: 62 14 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 15 1 0 67
Moronta, Reyes 2018: 143 20 2 0 2 23 2 0 0 50 4 0 168
Moronta, Reyes proj: 144 22 2 0 3 22 2 0 0 52 3 0 168
Osich, Josh 2018: 52 20 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 1 1 61
Osich, Josh proj: 53 14 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 12 1 0 61
Rodriguez, Dereck 2018: 202 48 14 3 3 13 1 1 5 42 0 0 222
Rodriguez, Dereck proj: 202 48 14 3 3 13 1 1 5 42 0 0 222
Samardzija, Jeff 2018: 174 47 7 1 6 26 4 1 2 30 9 3 207
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 188 47 9 2 6 15 1 1 2 44 4 2 207
Sandoval, Pablo 2018: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Sandoval, Pablo proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Smith, Will 2018: 100 16 5 0 0 7 2 1 0 40 2 0 110
Smith, Will proj: 98 24 5 1 3 10 1 0 1 30 2 1 110
Snelten, D.J. 2018: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Snelten, D.J. proj: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Stratton, Chris 2018: 373 103 21 6 11 36 2 2 2 73 2 4 415
Stratton, Chris proj: 368 101 19 4 10 40 3 2 2 76 3 3 415
Strickland, Hunter 2018: 119 26 7 0 2 13 2 1 0 29 2 0 135
Strickland, Hunter proj: 121 27 4 1 2 11 1 0 1 32 2 1 134
Suarez, Andrew 2018: 335 88 12 3 10 21 2 4 1 82 3 2 363
Suarez, Andrew proj: 335 88 12 3 10 21 2 4 1 82 3 2 363
Valdez, Jose 2018: 23 8 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 24
Valdez, Jose proj: 21 6 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Watson, Tony 2018: 159 35 4 0 3 9 2 2 1 46 1 0 173
Watson, Tony proj: 155 35 6 0 4 12 1 2 2 38 3 1 172
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 3367 847 177 21 85 318 28 27 28 774 53 22 3768
PROJECTED: 3384 852 160 28 89 306 23 22 31 765 49 22 3766
difference: -17 -5 +17 -7 -4 +12 +5 +5 -3 +9 +4 0 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .252 .252
Slugging Average: .392 .395
Walks (per PA): .084 .081
SOs (per PA): .205 .203
On-Base Average: .317 .316
Power Factor: 1.56 1.57
OPS: .709 .710
TPP Runs (to date): 416 420

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 4 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 21 July 2018, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.