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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 26 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 156 39 8 3 4 10 1 3 1 14 3 1 171
Blach, Ty proj: 156 34 7 2 4 11 1 3 1 18 3 1 172
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 106 25 5 1 2 4 0 1 1 28 3 0 112
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 103 24 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 27 1 1 112
Cain, Matt 2017: 212 58 11 1 5 24 3 1 0 36 10 2 240
Cain, Matt proj: 214 50 11 2 6 20 2 2 2 47 4 2 240
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 245 62 7 2 11 17 1 4 1 60 2 1 268
Cueto, Johnny proj: 243 58 12 1 7 18 1 2 4 55 1 2 268
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 69 18 5 1 0 13 0 0 5 14 2 1 87
Gearrin, Cory proj: 75 18 3 1 1 9 0 0 2 19 2 0 86
Kontos, George 2017: 79 18 4 0 3 8 1 2 0 20 2 0 90
Kontos, George proj: 82 19 3 0 2 7 1 0 0 17 2 1 90
Law, Derek 2017: 83 22 1 0 2 7 0 1 1 20 1 1 92
Law, Derek proj: 87 20 2 1 2 5 0 0 0 21 0 1 92
Melancon, Mark 2017: 55 17 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 1 0 56
Melancon, Mark proj: 52 12 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 13 0 0 56
Moore, Matt 2017: 231 65 18 4 10 24 3 2 2 49 4 0 262
Moore, Matt proj: 231 57 11 1 7 26 2 1 2 56 3 1 262
Morris, Bryan 2017: 42 10 2 1 0 5 0 1 0 9 0 0 48
Morris, Bryan proj: 42 10 1 0 1 5 0 1 1 8 0 0 49
Okert, Steven 2017: 46 12 5 1 0 6 1 2 3 7 0 1 58
Okert, Steven proj: 50 13 3 1 1 5 1 1 2 11 0 1 59
Osich, Josh 2017: 36 7 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 12 0 0 41
Osich, Josh proj: 36 8 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 8 1 0 40
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 47 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 1 18 0 1 53
Ramirez, Neil proj: 46 11 2 0 2 6 1 0 0 15 1 1 53
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 256 65 12 4 10 11 2 3 4 79 0 4 276
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 250 62 12 2 8 20 2 2 3 60 5 2 277
Stratton, Chris 2017: 14 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Stratton, Chris proj: 14 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 63 15 1 1 0 9 1 0 0 18 1 0 73
Strickland, Hunter proj: 67 14 2 0 1 5 1 0 1 18 1 1 74
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1740 452 87 19 50 150 14 20 19 398 29 12 1943
PROJECTED: 1748 414 78 11 47 152 13 13 20 395 24 14 1946
difference: -8 +38 +9 +8 +3 -2 +1 +7 -1 +3 +5 -2 -3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .260 .237
Slugging Average: .418 .375
Walks (per PA): .077 .078
SOs (per PA): .205 .203
On-Base Average: .320 .301
Power Factor: 1.61 1.58
OPS: .737 .676
TPP Runs (to date): 231 198

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 33 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 27 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.