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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 291 78 16 5 7 16 2 5 1 35 3 1 315
Blach, Ty proj: 290 72 15 4 7 18 2 5 1 38 3 1 316
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 106 25 5 1 2 4 0 1 1 28 3 0 112
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 103 24 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 27 1 1 112
Cain, Matt 2017: 301 93 15 1 9 32 3 1 0 46 11 3 337
Cain, Matt proj: 301 71 15 2 8 28 3 3 2 66 6 3 337
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 368 97 16 2 17 25 1 4 2 90 4 1 400
Cueto, Johnny proj: 363 87 18 2 10 27 2 4 5 82 2 3 401
Dyson, Sam 2017: 19 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 2 0 20
Dyson, Sam proj: 18 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 20
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 112 26 8 2 1 18 0 0 5 25 2 1 135
Gearrin, Cory proj: 117 28 5 2 2 14 1 0 3 30 4 1 135
Kontos, George 2017: 127 29 5 0 5 12 1 2 0 38 5 0 142
Kontos, George proj: 129 29 5 1 3 10 1 1 0 28 3 1 141
Law, Derek 2017: 122 40 5 1 5 11 2 2 2 27 2 1 139
Law, Derek proj: 129 33 5 2 3 8 1 1 1 30 1 1 140
Melancon, Mark 2017: 77 24 3 0 3 2 0 0 0 16 1 0 79
Melancon, Mark proj: 73 16 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 18 1 0 78
Moore, Matt 2017: 344 102 27 6 12 32 4 3 2 71 5 3 385
Moore, Matt proj: 340 85 17 2 10 38 3 2 3 82 5 2 386
Morris, Bryan 2017: 73 19 3 1 0 10 0 3 0 15 0 2 86
Morris, Bryan proj: 74 19 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 14 1 0 86
Okert, Steven 2017: 46 12 5 1 0 6 1 2 3 7 0 1 58
Okert, Steven proj: 50 13 3 1 1 5 1 1 2 11 0 1 59
Osich, Josh 2017: 65 12 3 0 0 12 0 0 0 18 0 0 77
Osich, Josh proj: 67 14 2 0 2 8 0 0 1 15 1 0 76
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 47 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 1 18 0 1 53
Ramirez, Neil proj: 45 10 2 0 2 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 53
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 381 101 19 6 16 13 3 4 4 112 3 5 405
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 367 92 18 3 11 29 2 3 4 88 8 3 405
Stratton, Chris 2017: 14 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Stratton, Chris proj: 14 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 97 23 2 1 0 13 1 0 1 26 1 0 112
Strickland, Hunter proj: 102 22 3 0 2 8 1 0 1 28 2 1 112
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2590 704 138 27 79 213 19 27 22 580 42 19 2871
PROJECTED: 2582 624 120 19 67 223 20 22 26 578 40 18 2873
difference: +8 +80 +18 +8 +12 -10 -1 +5 -4 +2 +2 +1 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .272 .242
Slugging Average: .437 .381
Walks (per PA): .074 .078
SOs (per PA): .202 .201
On-Base Average: .327 .304
Power Factor: 1.61 1.58
OPS: .765 .685
TPP Runs (to date): 362 300

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 62 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.