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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Beede, Tyler 2018: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Beede, Tyler proj: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Blach, Ty 2018: 461 133 23 2 8 41 1 8 1 75 3 3 512
Blach, Ty proj: 465 129 25 3 11 36 2 8 1 64 3 2 512
Black, Ray 2018: 82 17 4 1 4 10 0 2 1 33 4 2 95
Black, Ray proj: 82 17 4 1 4 10 0 2 1 33 4 2 95
Bumgarner, Madison 2018: 495 118 27 3 14 43 3 5 5 109 13 0 551
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 507 118 24 2 13 32 3 4 4 132 8 4 550
Cueto, Johnny 2018: 193 46 7 0 8 13 0 3 5 38 0 0 214
Cueto, Johnny proj: 194 47 10 1 5 15 1 2 3 43 1 1 215
Dyson, Sam 2018: 246 56 16 1 5 20 3 1 3 56 14 5 273
Dyson, Sam proj: 244 62 11 1 5 23 1 2 3 51 9 3 273
Gearrin, Cory 2018: 120 33 6 0 5 13 0 1 3 31 4 0 137
Gearrin, Cory proj: 119 28 5 1 2 14 1 0 3 31 4 1 137
Gomez, Roberto 2018: 47 20 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 1 1 49
Gomez, Roberto proj: 47 19 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 9 1 1 49
Holland, Derek 2018: 640 154 42 3 19 67 7 9 4 169 7 2 727
Holland, Derek proj: 654 172 37 3 24 59 5 4 5 140 8 4 727
Johnson, Pierce 2018: 161 38 8 3 5 22 2 1 0 36 4 2 186
Johnson, Pierce proj: 161 39 8 3 5 22 2 1 0 37 4 2 186
Kelly, Casey 2018: 96 28 5 2 3 5 2 0 1 16 0 1 104
Kelly, Casey proj: 94 30 7 1 3 7 1 1 2 15 1 1 105
Law, Derek 2018: 56 16 3 1 2 8 1 0 1 12 1 0 66
Law, Derek proj: 60 15 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 14 0 0 65
Melancon, Mark 2018: 159 48 9 1 2 14 0 0 1 31 1 3 174
Melancon, Mark proj: 161 37 6 0 2 10 1 0 2 39 1 1 174
Moronta, Reyes 2018: 221 34 6 0 4 37 3 1 0 79 8 0 262
Moronta, Reyes proj: 222 36 5 0 5 36 3 1 0 81 7 0 262
Okert, Steven 2018: 27 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 27
Okert, Steven proj: 24 6 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 26
Osich, Josh 2018: 52 20 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 1 1 61
Osich, Josh proj: 53 14 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 12 1 0 61
Rodriguez, Dereck 2018: 439 98 30 5 9 36 3 2 7 89 3 0 487
Rodriguez, Dereck proj: 439 98 30 5 9 36 3 2 7 89 3 0 487
Samardzija, Jeff 2018: 174 47 7 1 6 26 4 1 2 30 9 3 207
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 188 47 9 2 6 15 1 1 2 44 4 2 207
Sandoval, Pablo 2018: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Sandoval, Pablo proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Smith, Will 2018: 191 37 8 0 3 15 2 2 0 71 4 0 210
Smith, Will proj: 187 46 9 1 5 18 2 1 1 57 3 1 209
Snelten, D.J. 2018: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Snelten, D.J. proj: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Stratton, Chris 2018: 560 153 29 8 19 54 6 3 2 112 2 5 625
Stratton, Chris proj: 555 151 28 6 17 59 6 3 2 114 3 4 625
Strickland, Hunter 2018: 174 43 13 2 5 21 3 2 1 37 2 0 201
Strickland, Hunter proj: 180 41 7 2 4 17 2 1 2 45 3 2 202
Suarez, Andrew 2018: 606 163 25 7 23 45 6 5 3 130 5 3 665
Suarez, Andrew proj: 606 163 25 7 23 45 6 5 3 130 5 3 665
Valdez, Jose 2018: 23 8 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 24
Valdez, Jose proj: 21 6 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Watson, Tony 2018: 241 54 10 2 4 14 2 3 1 72 3 0 261
Watson, Tony proj: 235 52 9 1 6 18 2 3 3 59 5 1 261
d'Arnaud, Chase 2018: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
d'Arnaud, Chase proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5525 1387 291 42 156 524 48 49 45 1269 93 31 6191
PROJECTED: 5559 1392 273 43 157 501 42 41 47 1263 81 35 6190
difference: -34 -5 +18 -1 -1 +23 +6 +8 -2 +6 +12 -4 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .250
Slugging Average: .404 .400
Walks (per PA): .085 .081
SOs (per PA): .205 .204
On-Base Average: .316 .313
Power Factor: 1.61 1.6
OPS: .720 .713
TPP Runs (to date): 705 693

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 12 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.