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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 628 179 36 6 17 42 5 10 1 72 4 2 686
Blach, Ty proj: 627 172 35 6 17 43 5 10 1 75 5 2 686
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 424 101 25 2 17 20 1 2 3 101 5 3 450
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 415 97 19 2 11 25 2 4 3 109 6 4 449
Cain, Matt 2017: 492 155 25 3 18 48 6 2 2 71 15 4 550
Cain, Matt proj: 491 117 25 4 13 45 4 5 4 107 10 4 549
Crick, Kyle 2017: 109 22 2 2 2 15 0 1 1 26 1 1 126
Crick, Kyle proj: 109 22 2 2 2 15 0 1 1 26 1 1 126
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 530 143 32 3 21 51 3 7 7 126 4 2 598
Cueto, Johnny proj: 541 131 27 3 15 41 3 5 8 122 3 4 598
Dyson, Sam 2017: 136 30 4 3 1 16 0 1 3 25 5 3 156
Dyson, Sam proj: 139 36 5 1 3 14 0 1 2 28 4 1 156
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 231 50 11 2 4 33 2 1 7 59 3 3 274
Gearrin, Cory proj: 238 55 9 3 4 28 2 1 6 62 6 2 275
Gomez, Roberto 2017: 16 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 16
Gomez, Roberto proj: 16 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 16
Kontos, George 2017: 201 52 13 0 8 17 1 4 0 55 5 0 223
Kontos, George proj: 203 47 9 1 6 16 2 1 1 45 5 1 223
Law, Derek 2017: 145 45 8 1 5 14 2 2 2 35 2 1 165
Law, Derek proj: 152 39 7 2 3 10 1 1 1 37 1 1 165
Melancon, Mark 2017: 123 37 8 1 3 6 0 0 1 29 1 0 130
Melancon, Mark proj: 121 27 4 0 2 7 1 0 1 30 1 0 130
Moore, Matt 2017: 696 195 42 9 26 64 4 6 7 148 8 3 777
Moore, Matt proj: 687 172 34 3 22 75 5 4 6 164 9 3 777
Moronta, Reyes 2017: 17 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 20
Moronta, Reyes proj: 17 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 20
Morris, Bryan 2017: 79 24 3 1 1 11 1 3 0 15 0 2 94
Morris, Bryan proj: 81 21 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 16 1 0 93
Okert, Steven 2017: 97 24 7 1 3 11 2 3 3 21 0 1 116
Okert, Steven proj: 101 25 5 1 3 10 1 2 2 23 0 1 116
Osich, Josh 2017: 163 45 8 1 6 27 0 1 1 40 1 0 192
Osich, Josh proj: 167 41 6 1 7 22 0 1 2 37 2 0 192
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 47 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 1 18 0 1 53
Ramirez, Neil proj: 45 10 2 0 2 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 53
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 781 201 39 12 29 31 4 4 6 201 6 7 826
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 751 188 36 7 23 58 5 5 7 179 15 6 826
Slania, Dan 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Slania, Dan proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Stratton, Chris 2017: 197 52 9 1 5 26 3 2 1 44 3 1 229
Stratton, Chris proj: 198 53 8 1 5 26 3 2 1 42 3 1 230
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 221 57 6 4 4 28 3 1 2 55 3 2 255
Strickland, Hunter proj: 230 52 7 2 4 20 2 0 2 60 4 3 254
Suarez, Albert 2017: 113 27 7 1 4 9 1 0 1 33 2 0 124
Suarez, Albert proj: 112 29 9 1 4 9 1 1 1 23 1 0 124
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5449 1463 288 55 176 476 39 50 49 1185 68 36 6063
PROJECTED: 5444 1343 252 42 148 483 39 45 50 1211 78 34 6061
difference: +5 +120 +36 +13 +28 -7 0 +5 -1 -26 -10 +2 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .268 .247
Slugging Average: .438 .390
Walks (per PA): .079 .080
SOs (per PA): .195 .200
On-Base Average: .328 .310
Power Factor: 1.63 1.58
OPS: .766 .699
TPP Runs (to date): 765 658

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 107 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.