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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 35 7 2 0 0 4 0 2 1 4 0 0 42
Blach, Ty proj: 37 6 2 0 0 4 0 1 0 6 0 0 42
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 106 25 5 1 2 4 0 1 1 28 3 0 112
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 103 24 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 27 1 1 112
Cain, Matt 2017: 83 17 3 1 3 9 1 0 0 15 3 1 93
Cain, Matt proj: 83 19 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 18 2 1 94
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 118 32 2 0 6 10 0 3 1 24 0 0 132
Cueto, Johnny proj: 120 29 6 1 3 9 1 1 2 27 1 1 133
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 20 3 1 0 0 7 0 0 1 6 1 1 28
Gearrin, Cory proj: 24 6 1 0 0 3 0 0 1 6 1 0 28
Kontos, George 2017: 29 7 3 0 0 4 0 1 0 8 2 0 34
Kontos, George proj: 31 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 1 0 33
Law, Derek 2017: 39 11 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 6 0 1 44
Law, Derek proj: 42 9 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 10 0 0 44
Melancon, Mark 2017: 30 9 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 31
Melancon, Mark proj: 29 6 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 31
Moore, Matt 2017: 121 32 10 1 6 9 0 1 1 25 2 0 132
Moore, Matt proj: 116 28 6 0 4 13 1 1 1 28 2 0 132
Okert, Steven 2017: 19 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 1 22
Okert, Steven proj: 20 5 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 21
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 38 13 3 0 0 2 1 0 1 14 0 1 42
Ramirez, Neil proj: 36 8 2 0 1 5 1 0 0 12 1 0 42
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 96 28 3 2 5 9 1 2 1 30 0 1 109
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 98 25 5 1 3 8 1 1 1 23 2 1 109
Stratton, Chris 2017: 9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Stratton, Chris proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 31 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 8 1 0 37
Strickland, Hunter proj: 34 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 37
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 774 194 36 5 23 70 4 12 8 183 12 6 868
PROJECTED: 782 181 36 4 20 67 6 6 7 187 12 4 868
difference: -8 +13 0 +1 +3 +3 -2 +6 +1 -4 0 +2 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .231
Slugging Average: .399 .364
Walks (per PA): .081 .077
SOs (per PA): .211 .215
On-Base Average: .313 .294
Power Factor: 1.59 1.57
OPS: .713 .658
TPP Runs (to date): 97 85

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 12 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.