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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 24 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Blach, Ty 2017: 411 117 25 6 9 23 3 7 1 53 4 1 445
Blach, Ty proj: 410 110 24 5 9 25 3 7 1 55 4 1 446
Bumgarner, Madison 2017: 155 35 7 1 6 7 0 1 1 38 3 1 164
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 151 35 7 1 4 9 1 1 1 40 2 1 163
Cain, Matt 2017: 410 127 21 1 15 41 4 2 0 59 13 3 457
Cain, Matt proj: 408 97 21 3 11 37 3 5 3 89 8 4 456
Crick, Kyle 2017: 47 10 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 0 53
Crick, Kyle proj: 47 10 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 0 53
Cueto, Johnny 2017: 452 121 26 2 19 41 2 6 4 103 4 1 505
Cueto, Johnny proj: 457 110 23 2 12 34 2 5 7 102 2 3 505
Dyson, Sam 2017: 70 15 3 1 0 8 0 0 3 15 3 1 81
Dyson, Sam proj: 72 19 3 0 1 7 0 1 1 15 2 0 81
Gearrin, Cory 2017: 168 39 10 2 2 25 1 1 5 39 2 2 200
Gearrin, Cory proj: 174 41 7 3 3 21 1 1 4 44 5 1 201
Kontos, George 2017: 191 49 11 0 7 15 1 4 0 53 5 0 211
Kontos, George proj: 192 45 8 1 5 15 2 1 1 42 5 1 211
Law, Derek 2017: 122 40 5 1 5 11 2 2 2 27 2 1 139
Law, Derek proj: 129 33 5 2 3 8 1 1 1 30 1 1 140
Melancon, Mark 2017: 84 25 4 0 3 3 0 0 0 19 1 0 87
Melancon, Mark proj: 81 18 3 0 1 5 0 0 1 20 1 0 87
Moore, Matt 2017: 460 138 34 7 17 42 4 4 3 94 5 3 513
Moore, Matt proj: 453 114 23 2 14 50 3 3 4 108 6 2 513
Morris, Bryan 2017: 79 24 3 1 1 11 1 3 0 15 0 2 94
Morris, Bryan proj: 81 21 3 0 2 9 1 1 1 16 1 0 93
Okert, Steven 2017: 80 23 7 1 2 9 2 3 3 16 0 1 97
Okert, Steven proj: 84 23 5 1 3 8 1 2 2 19 0 1 97
Osich, Josh 2017: 118 29 6 0 3 16 0 1 1 32 1 0 136
Osich, Josh proj: 119 27 4 1 5 14 0 1 1 27 2 0 135
Ramirez, Neil 2017: 47 15 3 0 2 4 1 0 1 18 0 1 53
Ramirez, Neil proj: 45 10 2 0 2 7 1 0 0 15 1 0 53
Samardzija, Jeff 2017: 506 139 27 9 21 15 3 4 5 138 3 6 533
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 484 122 24 5 15 38 3 3 5 116 10 4 533
Slania, Dan 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Slania, Dan proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Stratton, Chris 2017: 38 10 2 1 1 7 0 0 0 4 2 0 45
Stratton, Chris proj: 39 11 2 1 1 6 0 0 0 5 1 0 45
Strickland, Hunter 2017: 138 35 3 3 2 20 2 0 2 38 2 1 162
Strickland, Hunter proj: 147 32 4 1 3 13 1 0 2 40 3 2 163
Suarez, Albert 2017: 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 14
Suarez, Albert proj: 13 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 14
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3593 993 197 37 115 304 26 38 31 774 50 24 3992
PROJECTED: 3589 881 169 29 94 313 23 32 35 794 54 21 3992
difference: +4 +112 +28 +8 +21 -9 +3 +6 -4 -20 -4 +3 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .276 .245
Slugging Average: .448 .387
Walks (per PA): .076 .078
SOs (per PA): .194 .199
On-Base Average: .333 .308
Power Factor: 1.62 1.58
OPS: .780 .695
TPP Runs (to date): 521 430

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 91 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 25 July 2017, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.