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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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SFO "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 17 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Beede, Tyler 2018: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Beede, Tyler proj: 31 9 4 0 0 8 0 0 1 9 2 0 40
Blach, Ty 2018: 435 128 23 2 8 40 1 8 1 68 2 3 485
Blach, Ty proj: 440 123 24 3 10 34 2 7 1 59 3 2 484
Black, Ray 2018: 68 12 4 1 3 8 0 0 1 27 4 2 77
Black, Ray proj: 68 12 4 1 3 8 0 0 1 27 4 2 77
Bumgarner, Madison 2018: 445 103 25 3 13 41 3 4 5 98 13 0 498
Bumgarner, Madison proj: 459 107 21 2 12 29 3 4 4 119 7 4 499
Cueto, Johnny 2018: 193 46 7 0 8 13 0 3 5 38 0 0 214
Cueto, Johnny proj: 194 47 10 1 5 15 1 2 3 43 1 1 215
Dyson, Sam 2018: 230 54 16 1 5 19 3 1 3 53 12 5 256
Dyson, Sam proj: 228 59 10 1 5 22 1 2 3 48 8 2 256
Gearrin, Cory 2018: 120 33 6 0 5 13 0 1 3 31 4 0 137
Gearrin, Cory proj: 119 28 5 1 2 14 1 0 3 31 4 1 137
Gomez, Roberto 2018: 47 20 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 1 1 49
Gomez, Roberto proj: 47 19 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 9 1 1 49
Holland, Derek 2018: 587 139 37 3 17 61 7 8 4 159 7 2 667
Holland, Derek proj: 600 157 34 3 22 54 4 4 5 128 7 4 667
Johnson, Pierce 2018: 146 33 7 3 4 22 2 1 0 29 4 2 171
Johnson, Pierce proj: 146 34 7 3 4 22 2 1 0 30 4 2 171
Kelly, Casey 2018: 72 21 4 1 2 4 1 0 0 11 0 1 77
Kelly, Casey proj: 70 23 5 1 2 5 0 1 1 11 1 1 77
Law, Derek 2018: 56 16 3 1 2 8 1 0 1 12 1 0 66
Law, Derek proj: 60 15 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 14 0 0 65
Melancon, Mark 2018: 136 39 7 0 1 11 0 0 1 29 0 3 148
Melancon, Mark proj: 137 31 5 0 2 8 1 0 1 33 1 1 147
Moronta, Reyes 2018: 211 33 6 0 4 37 3 1 0 75 8 0 252
Moronta, Reyes proj: 213 35 5 0 4 36 3 1 0 77 7 0 253
Okert, Steven 2018: 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 11
Okert, Steven proj: 10 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Osich, Josh 2018: 52 20 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 1 1 61
Osich, Josh proj: 53 14 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 12 1 0 61
Rodriguez, Dereck 2018: 402 85 28 4 6 32 3 2 7 86 3 0 446
Rodriguez, Dereck proj: 402 85 28 4 6 32 3 2 7 86 3 0 446
Samardzija, Jeff 2018: 174 47 7 1 6 26 4 1 2 30 9 3 207
Samardzija, Jeff proj: 188 47 9 2 6 15 1 1 2 44 4 2 207
Sandoval, Pablo 2018: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Sandoval, Pablo proj: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Smith, Will 2018: 176 30 5 0 3 13 2 2 0 66 4 0 193
Smith, Will proj: 172 42 8 1 5 17 2 1 1 53 3 1 193
Snelten, D.J. 2018: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Snelten, D.J. proj: 23 9 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 26
Stratton, Chris 2018: 517 136 27 7 17 46 4 2 2 104 2 5 571
Stratton, Chris proj: 510 135 26 5 15 52 5 3 2 106 3 4 572
Strickland, Hunter 2018: 152 35 10 1 4 18 3 2 1 33 2 0 176
Strickland, Hunter proj: 158 35 6 1 3 15 2 1 1 40 3 2 177
Suarez, Andrew 2018: 574 151 21 7 23 42 6 5 2 125 5 3 629
Suarez, Andrew proj: 574 151 21 7 23 42 6 5 2 125 5 3 629
Valdez, Jose 2018: 23 8 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 24
Valdez, Jose proj: 21 6 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 24
Watson, Tony 2018: 230 53 9 2 4 14 2 3 1 65 2 0 250
Watson, Tony proj: 225 50 9 1 6 17 2 3 3 56 4 1 250
d'Arnaud, Chase 2018: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
d'Arnaud, Chase proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5118 1262 264 37 142 488 45 44 43 1178 88 31 5738
PROJECTED: 5155 1276 250 40 142 465 39 38 43 1171 77 34 5740
difference: -37 -14 +14 -3 0 +23 +6 +6 0 +7 +11 -3 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .247 .248
Slugging Average: .396 .394
Walks (per PA): .085 .081
SOs (per PA): .205 .204
On-Base Average: .312 .311
Power Factor: 1.61 1.59
OPS: .708 .705
TPP Runs (to date): 636 630

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 6 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 18 September 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.