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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 22 August 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Brebbia, John 2019: 228 47 12 0 5 19 1 0 3 74 1 1 251
Brebbia, John proj: 229 48 12 1 7 17 1 1 3 69 3 1 251
Cabrera, Genesis 2019: 50 15 3 0 2 7 0 1 1 10 0 0 59
Cabrera, Genesis proj: 50 15 3 0 2 7 0 1 1 10 0 0 59
Fernandez, Junior 2019: 19 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 7 1 0 23
Fernandez, Junior proj: 19 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 7 1 0 23
Flaherty, Jack 2019: 517 110 20 1 22 45 2 3 5 162 0 3 572
Flaherty, Jack proj: 509 108 17 1 21 51 2 2 8 163 2 2 572
Gallegos, Giovanny 2019: 203 32 8 0 5 12 1 0 3 78 2 1 219
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 202 40 9 0 6 12 1 1 2 70 2 2 218
Gant, John 2019: 201 42 10 0 4 21 0 0 0 46 1 0 222
Gant, John proj: 194 45 10 1 5 24 2 1 1 44 2 1 222
Gregerson, Luke 2019: 26 11 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 27
Gregerson, Luke proj: 25 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 1 0 27
Gyorko, Jedd 2019: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gyorko, Jedd proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Helsley, Ryan 2019: 72 12 4 1 2 10 1 1 0 19 2 0 84
Helsley, Ryan proj: 72 12 4 1 2 10 1 1 0 19 2 0 84
Hicks, Jordan 2019: 98 16 3 0 2 11 0 0 1 31 0 0 110
Hicks, Jordan proj: 94 18 2 0 1 14 0 0 2 25 1 0 110
Hudson, Dakota 2019: 515 139 27 0 19 63 6 2 8 104 3 1 594
Hudson, Dakota proj: 511 132 26 0 16 68 7 2 8 103 3 1 596
Leone, Dominic 2019: 116 30 7 0 7 14 1 1 0 35 1 0 132
Leone, Dominic proj: 117 30 6 1 4 12 2 0 1 32 2 1 132
Martinez, Carlos 2019: 126 31 4 0 2 14 1 1 3 35 0 0 145
Martinez, Carlos proj: 128 31 5 1 3 13 1 1 2 34 1 1 145
Mayers, Mike 2019: 56 16 4 2 2 10 0 0 1 10 0 0 67
Mayers, Mike proj: 59 19 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 12 0 0 68
Mejia, Adalberto 2019: 16 8 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 17
Mejia, Adalberto proj: 15 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 17
Mikolas, Miles 2019: 577 161 27 5 22 25 5 3 9 109 2 2 619
Mikolas, Miles proj: 573 150 22 4 17 30 4 5 8 107 2 1 620
Miller, Andrew 2019: 154 31 1 0 9 23 0 0 6 58 1 0 183
Miller, Andrew proj: 157 37 7 1 4 20 2 2 3 50 3 1 184
Ponce de Leon, Daniel 2019: 143 29 4 0 5 21 0 0 1 44 0 1 165
Ponce de Leon, Daniel proj: 144 29 6 0 4 19 1 0 1 42 0 1 165
Reyes, Alex 2019: 10 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 17
Reyes, Alex proj: 14 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 16
Shreve, Chasen 2019: 8 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 10
Shreve, Chasen proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Wacha, Michael 2019: 383 113 20 1 21 45 5 6 2 80 5 3 441
Wacha, Michael proj: 396 101 21 2 11 36 3 3 2 91 4 2 440
Wainwright, Adam 2019: 502 135 34 1 17 54 4 6 8 126 2 4 574
Wainwright, Adam proj: 522 132 28 2 11 38 3 6 4 117 4 3 573
Webb, Tyler 2019: 149 27 3 2 5 17 2 2 2 39 3 1 172
Webb, Tyler proj: 149 33 6 1 6 18 1 2 2 36 2 1 172
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 4170 1013 197 13 152 423 30 26 55 1075 24 18 4704
PROJECTED: 4189 998 191 16 124 405 32 29 50 1048 35 18 4705
difference: -19 +15 +6 -3 +28 +18 -2 -3 +5 +27 -11 0 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .243 .238
Slugging Average: .406 .380
Walks (per PA): .090 .086
SOs (per PA): .229 .223
On-Base Average: .317 .309
Power Factor: 1.67 1.6
OPS: .723 .689
TPP Runs (to date): 534 494

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 40 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 23 August 2019, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.