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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2017: 114 26 4 1 3 9 2 1 2 27 1 0 128
Bowman, Matt proj: 116 27 5 1 2 9 1 1 1 25 1 0 128
Brebbia, John 2017: 43 7 1 0 2 2 0 0 1 7 4 0 46
Brebbia, John proj: 43 7 1 0 2 2 0 0 1 7 4 0 46
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 62 23 3 0 2 11 2 3 0 16 1 1 78
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 69 16 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 21 2 1 79
Cecil, Brett 2017: 106 29 8 0 4 10 3 0 0 27 4 1 119
Cecil, Brett proj: 107 28 6 1 4 10 1 0 1 25 2 1 119
Gant, John 2017: 13 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 15
Gant, John proj: 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 14
Gonzales, Marco 2017: 16 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Gonzales, Marco proj: 14 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Leake, Mike 2017: 342 81 18 1 9 18 3 4 3 66 3 2 370
Leake, Mike proj: 340 91 18 2 11 21 3 3 3 60 4 2 370
Lynn, Lance 2017: 285 59 5 2 16 32 1 3 6 76 2 2 327
Lynn, Lance proj: 290 71 14 2 7 29 2 3 4 75 2 2 328
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 73 18 3 0 2 8 1 0 2 22 1 0 84
Lyons, Tyler proj: 76 18 4 1 3 6 0 1 1 19 1 0 84
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 338 66 11 2 8 33 2 1 2 107 2 3 376
Martinez, Carlos proj: 335 80 13 2 6 32 2 3 4 88 3 2 376
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 132 36 7 0 4 10 1 2 2 32 0 0 147
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 135 29 5 0 3 9 1 1 1 43 1 0 147
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 96 19 1 1 2 10 2 0 0 44 0 1 108
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 95 22 3 1 1 11 0 1 1 33 1 0 108
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 101 27 6 1 3 13 0 0 1 24 2 1 115
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 100 20 4 1 3 13 1 0 1 32 2 1 115
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 80 27 11 0 4 4 1 0 2 14 0 0 87
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 79 18 4 1 3 7 1 1 1 17 3 0 89
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 57 14 1 0 2 6 0 0 1 12 1 0 64
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 55 15 2 0 2 8 0 0 1 14 2 0 64
Wacha, Michael 2017: 264 76 14 3 8 27 1 2 1 63 6 1 295
Wacha, Michael proj: 267 68 15 1 7 23 2 2 2 61 2 1 296
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 291 89 19 3 8 29 0 4 4 61 1 1 328
Wainwright, Adam proj: 300 75 16 1 6 21 2 4 2 67 2 2 329
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 2413 606 113 15 82 224 19 20 27 603 28 13 2703
PROJECTED: 2434 593 115 14 63 211 17 21 25 593 32 12 2708
difference: -21 +13 -2 +1 +19 +13 +2 -1 +2 +10 -4 +1 -5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .244
Slugging Average: .412 .380
Walks (per PA): .083 .078
SOs (per PA): .223 .219
On-Base Average: .317 .306
Power Factor: 1.64 1.56
OPS: .729 .686
TPP Runs (to date): 314 284

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 30 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.