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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2018: 94 29 5 1 4 11 1 2 1 26 0 0 109
Bowman, Matt proj: 98 24 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 21 1 0 109
Brebbia, John 2018: 153 37 8 1 4 13 2 1 0 45 3 2 169
Brebbia, John proj: 154 33 8 1 5 11 1 1 2 43 3 1 169
Cecil, Brett 2018: 98 29 4 2 2 20 3 0 0 15 6 1 121
Cecil, Brett proj: 109 28 6 1 4 10 1 0 1 25 2 1 121
Flaherty, Jack 2018: 393 79 12 0 15 39 0 2 9 134 3 0 443
Flaherty, Jack proj: 391 84 12 1 16 40 2 2 8 127 2 1 443
Gant, John 2018: 296 64 13 2 6 33 4 1 1 66 4 0 335
Gant, John proj: 293 71 14 3 9 34 4 2 2 67 4 1 335
Garcia, Greg 2018: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Garcia, Greg proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Gomber, Austin 2018: 151 34 9 2 3 23 2 2 4 36 0 2 182
Gomber, Austin proj: 151 34 9 2 3 23 2 2 4 36 0 2 182
Gregerson, Luke 2018: 51 14 5 0 2 6 0 0 0 12 0 0 57
Gregerson, Luke proj: 52 11 2 0 1 4 0 1 0 14 1 0 57
Guilmet, Preston 2018: 12 7 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 13
Guilmet, Preston proj: 12 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Gyorko, Jedd 2018: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Gyorko, Jedd proj: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Hicks, Jordan 2018: 231 46 5 1 1 31 1 0 7 52 3 0 270
Hicks, Jordan proj: 231 46 5 1 1 31 1 0 7 52 3 0 270
Holland, Greg 2018: 109 34 4 3 1 22 0 1 0 22 0 0 132
Holland, Greg proj: 117 24 4 1 2 14 1 1 0 41 1 1 133
Hudson, Dakota 2018: 42 5 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 49
Hudson, Dakota proj: 42 5 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 8 0 0 49
Leone, Dominic 2018: 49 15 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 15 0 0 55
Leone, Dominic proj: 49 12 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 13 1 0 55
Lyons, Tyler 2018: 70 24 7 0 3 8 2 1 2 19 2 1 83
Lyons, Tyler proj: 74 18 4 0 3 6 1 1 1 20 1 0 83
Martinez, Carlos 2018: 377 89 16 2 5 49 3 5 11 98 4 0 445
Martinez, Carlos proj: 394 96 16 2 9 39 2 4 6 103 4 2 445
Mayers, Mike 2018: 171 43 15 0 5 13 3 2 1 42 0 2 190
Mayers, Mike proj: 167 51 15 0 8 15 5 2 2 36 1 2 191
Mikolas, Miles 2018: 587 138 16 4 12 26 4 6 6 109 2 1 629
Mikolas, Miles proj: 576 142 19 4 15 36 4 5 8 104 3 1 629
Norris, Bud 2018: 187 43 3 0 5 11 2 1 4 63 1 0 205
Norris, Bud proj: 182 47 9 1 6 18 1 1 2 45 4 2 204
Poncedeleon, Daniel 2018: 57 8 2 0 2 9 0 0 0 10 0 0 66
Poncedeleon, Daniel proj: 57 8 2 0 2 9 0 0 0 10 0 0 66
Reyes, Alex 2018: 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 15
Reyes, Alex proj: 13 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 15
Ross, Tyson 2018: 42 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 48
Ross, Tyson proj: 42 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 10 1 0 48
Sherriff, Ryan 2018: 24 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 27
Sherriff, Ryan proj: 25 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 28
Shreve, Chasen 2018: 24 5 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 25
Shreve, Chasen proj: 22 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 25
Tuivailala, Sam 2018: 128 35 7 0 3 11 1 2 2 26 2 0 144
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 129 33 6 1 3 12 0 1 2 29 3 0 144
Wacha, Michael 2018: 308 68 11 0 9 36 5 4 2 71 5 0 355
Wacha, Michael proj: 320 80 17 1 8 28 2 2 2 74 4 1 354
Wainwright, Adam 2018: 69 19 5 0 2 14 1 2 2 15 0 0 88
Wainwright, Adam proj: 80 20 4 0 2 6 0 1 1 18 1 0 88
Weaver, Luke 2018: 492 134 17 4 16 44 1 9 2 112 2 0 548
Weaver, Luke proj: 494 135 20 2 17 41 3 7 3 130 1 2 548
Webb, Tyler 2018: 26 6 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 5 0 0 29
Webb, Tyler proj: 25 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 28
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 4261 1025 173 22 109 441 39 42 58 1022 38 9 4841
PROJECTED: 4307 1041 186 22 123 413 32 34 55 1051 41 17 4841
difference: -46 -16 -13 0 -14 +28 +7 +8 +3 -29 -3 -8 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .241 .242
Slugging Average: .368 .381
Walks (per PA): .091 .085
SOs (per PA): .211 .217
On-Base Average: .315 .312
Power Factor: 1.53 1.58
OPS: .683 .692
TPP Runs (to date): 509 517

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 8 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.