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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Thursday, 27 April 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2017: 40 6 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 10 0 0 43
Bowman, Matt proj: 40 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 43
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 27 10 1 0 2 6 0 1 0 5 0 0 34
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 30 7 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 33
Cecil, Brett 2017: 33 9 1 0 1 5 2 0 0 10 2 0 40
Cecil, Brett proj: 36 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 39
Leake, Mike 2017: 98 20 7 0 0 4 1 1 0 20 1 1 104
Leake, Mike proj: 96 26 5 0 3 6 1 1 1 17 1 1 105
Lynn, Lance 2017: 85 16 3 0 3 8 0 0 2 20 1 1 95
Lynn, Lance proj: 84 21 4 1 2 8 0 1 1 22 1 1 94
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 6 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 9
Lyons, Tyler proj: 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 9
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 114 28 3 1 4 14 0 1 2 39 2 1 131
Martinez, Carlos proj: 116 29 5 1 2 11 0 1 2 30 1 1 130
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 46 14 4 0 2 2 0 0 2 9 0 0 50
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 46 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 15 0 0 50
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 26 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 26
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 23 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 26
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 32 7 1 0 2 10 0 0 1 7 2 1 43
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 37 7 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 12 1 0 42
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 41 12 7 0 0 3 0 0 2 6 0 0 46
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 41 9 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 2 0 45
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 12 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 11 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 13
Wacha, Michael 2017: 91 21 4 1 3 6 0 0 1 23 1 0 98
Wacha, Michael proj: 89 22 5 0 2 7 1 1 1 20 1 0 99
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 108 39 7 2 3 7 0 3 0 26 1 1 118
Wainwright, Adam proj: 108 27 6 1 2 7 1 1 1 24 1 1 118
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 759 193 38 5 22 69 5 6 11 192 10 5 850
PROJECTED: 765 186 36 3 17 66 3 5 7 187 10 4 846
difference: -6 +7 +2 +2 +5 +3 +2 +1 +4 +5 0 +1 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .254 .243
Slugging Average: .404 .365
Walks (per PA): .081 .078
SOs (per PA): .226 .220
On-Base Average: .321 .306
Power Factor: 1.59 1.5
OPS: .726 .671
TPP Runs (to date): 98 85

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 13 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 28 April 2017, at 6:56 am Pacific Time.