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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2018: 94 29 5 1 4 11 1 2 1 26 0 0 109
Bowman, Matt proj: 98 24 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 21 1 0 109
Brebbia, John 2018: 190 43 9 1 5 16 2 1 0 60 3 2 209
Brebbia, John proj: 191 40 10 1 7 14 1 1 3 56 4 1 210
Cecil, Brett 2018: 129 39 6 2 5 25 3 0 0 19 7 1 157
Cecil, Brett proj: 141 37 7 1 5 13 1 1 1 32 3 1 157
Flaherty, Jack 2018: 542 108 17 1 20 59 1 2 11 182 4 0 615
Flaherty, Jack proj: 540 114 16 2 21 60 3 2 10 175 3 1 615
Gallegos, Giovanny 2018: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Gant, John 2018: 422 91 20 2 9 57 4 2 2 95 5 1 487
Gant, John proj: 422 101 21 4 12 55 4 3 3 96 6 2 487
Garcia, Greg 2018: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Garcia, Greg proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Gomber, Austin 2018: 292 81 18 3 7 32 2 4 4 67 1 2 334
Gomber, Austin proj: 292 81 18 3 7 32 2 4 4 67 1 2 334
Gregerson, Luke 2018: 51 14 5 0 2 6 0 0 0 12 0 0 57
Gregerson, Luke proj: 52 11 2 0 1 4 0 1 0 14 1 0 57
Guilmet, Preston 2018: 12 7 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 13
Guilmet, Preston proj: 12 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Gyorko, Jedd 2018: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Gyorko, Jedd proj: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Hicks, Jordan 2018: 284 59 6 1 2 45 2 0 8 70 3 0 339
Hicks, Jordan proj: 284 59 6 1 2 45 2 0 8 70 3 0 339
Holland, Greg 2018: 109 34 4 3 1 22 0 1 0 22 0 0 132
Holland, Greg proj: 116 24 4 1 2 14 1 1 0 41 1 1 132
Hudson, Dakota 2018: 97 19 4 0 0 18 2 0 1 19 0 0 118
Hudson, Dakota proj: 97 19 4 0 0 18 2 0 1 19 0 0 118
Leone, Dominic 2018: 94 27 1 0 3 8 3 1 0 26 1 0 106
Leone, Dominic proj: 94 24 5 1 3 9 2 0 1 26 2 1 106
Lyons, Tyler 2018: 70 24 7 0 3 8 2 1 2 19 2 1 83
Lyons, Tyler proj: 74 18 4 0 3 6 1 1 1 20 1 0 83
Martinez, Carlos 2018: 439 100 19 2 5 60 4 7 11 117 6 0 521
Martinez, Carlos proj: 461 111 19 2 10 47 2 5 7 121 5 2 522
Mayers, Mike 2018: 204 59 19 0 7 15 3 3 1 49 0 2 226
Mayers, Mike proj: 200 66 19 0 9 17 5 2 2 43 1 2 226
Mikolas, Miles 2018: 760 186 24 4 16 29 4 8 7 146 2 1 808
Mikolas, Miles proj: 745 188 26 4 19 42 4 7 9 138 3 1 807
Norris, Bud 2018: 215 51 4 1 8 21 2 2 5 67 1 0 245
Norris, Bud proj: 217 56 11 1 7 22 1 2 3 53 4 2 245
Poncedeleon, Daniel 2018: 117 24 6 0 2 13 1 0 1 31 0 0 132
Poncedeleon, Daniel proj: 117 24 6 0 2 13 1 0 1 31 0 0 132
Reyes, Alex 2018: 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 15
Reyes, Alex proj: 13 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 15
Ross, Tyson 2018: 90 20 5 1 1 10 2 2 0 15 0 2 104
Ross, Tyson proj: 91 23 4 0 2 10 1 1 1 22 3 1 104
Sherriff, Ryan 2018: 24 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 27
Sherriff, Ryan proj: 25 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 28
Shreve, Chasen 2018: 54 14 3 0 3 9 2 0 0 16 1 0 65
Shreve, Chasen proj: 56 13 3 0 3 7 0 0 0 17 0 0 63
Tuivailala, Sam 2018: 128 35 7 0 3 11 1 2 2 26 2 0 144
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 129 33 6 1 3 12 0 1 2 29 3 0 144
Wacha, Michael 2018: 308 68 11 0 9 36 5 4 2 71 5 0 355
Wacha, Michael proj: 320 80 17 1 8 28 2 2 2 74 4 1 354
Wainwright, Adam 2018: 156 41 8 0 5 18 2 3 2 40 0 1 181
Wainwright, Adam proj: 165 41 9 1 3 12 1 2 1 37 1 1 181
Weaver, Luke 2018: 542 150 24 4 19 54 1 9 3 121 2 0 609
Weaver, Luke proj: 546 151 25 2 20 49 3 7 4 141 1 2 609
Webb, Tyler 2018: 58 16 4 0 1 6 0 1 1 11 0 0 66
Webb, Tyler proj: 58 16 4 0 3 7 0 1 1 12 0 0 67
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 5506 1354 242 26 144 593 50 55 67 1337 46 13 6271
PROJECTED: 5569 1372 253 27 157 549 40 45 68 1368 51 21 6271
difference: -63 -18 -11 -1 -13 +44 +10 +10 -1 -31 -5 -8 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .246 .246
Slugging Average: .378 .386
Walks (per PA): .095 .088
SOs (per PA): .213 .218
On-Base Average: .321 .317
Power Factor: 1.54 1.57
OPS: .699 .703
TPP Runs (to date): 682 687

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 5 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:06 am Pacific Time.