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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 24 June 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2018: 81 23 3 1 4 10 1 2 1 24 0 0 95
Bowman, Matt proj: 85 20 4 1 2 7 1 1 1 19 1 0 95
Brebbia, John 2018: 103 22 4 1 2 7 1 0 0 31 2 1 111
Brebbia, John proj: 102 20 5 1 3 6 0 0 2 28 2 0 110
Cecil, Brett 2018: 55 16 3 2 1 12 2 0 0 11 5 1 69
Cecil, Brett proj: 62 16 3 0 2 6 1 0 1 14 1 0 70
Flaherty, Jack 2018: 209 42 5 0 7 16 0 1 5 68 1 0 231
Flaherty, Jack proj: 206 46 5 1 8 18 1 1 4 63 1 1 230
Gant, John 2018: 104 23 5 1 1 9 2 1 1 28 2 0 117
Gant, John proj: 102 27 5 1 3 11 1 1 1 25 2 1 116
Garcia, Greg 2018: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Garcia, Greg proj: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Gomber, Austin 2018: 32 6 1 0 1 7 1 1 1 7 0 1 42
Gomber, Austin proj: 32 6 1 0 1 7 1 1 1 7 0 1 42
Gregerson, Luke 2018: 32 8 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 35
Gregerson, Luke proj: 32 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 1 0 34
Guilmet, Preston 2018: 12 7 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 13
Guilmet, Preston proj: 12 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 13
Gyorko, Jedd 2018: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Gyorko, Jedd proj: 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Hicks, Jordan 2018: 136 22 4 0 1 21 1 0 3 32 1 0 161
Hicks, Jordan proj: 136 22 4 0 1 21 1 0 3 32 1 0 161
Holland, Greg 2018: 69 21 2 3 1 15 0 1 0 15 0 0 85
Holland, Greg proj: 75 16 3 1 1 9 0 1 0 27 1 0 85
Leone, Dominic 2018: 49 15 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 15 0 0 55
Leone, Dominic proj: 49 12 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 13 1 0 55
Lyons, Tyler 2018: 55 16 5 0 3 6 1 1 2 15 1 0 65
Lyons, Tyler proj: 58 14 3 0 2 5 0 0 1 16 1 0 64
Martinez, Carlos 2018: 244 55 10 1 3 42 2 3 10 65 3 0 301
Martinez, Carlos proj: 266 64 11 1 6 27 1 2 4 70 3 1 300
Mayers, Mike 2018: 93 23 9 0 3 6 1 1 0 23 0 1 101
Mayers, Mike proj: 89 29 9 0 5 8 3 1 1 18 1 1 102
Mikolas, Miles 2018: 364 82 10 3 8 12 4 0 4 71 2 0 384
Mikolas, Miles proj: 352 87 12 2 10 22 3 1 5 65 2 0 383
Norris, Bud 2018: 122 28 3 0 4 5 0 1 2 43 0 0 130
Norris, Bud proj: 115 30 6 1 4 12 1 1 1 28 2 1 130
Reyes, Alex 2018: 12 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 15
Reyes, Alex proj: 13 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 15
Sherriff, Ryan 2018: 24 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 27
Sherriff, Ryan proj: 25 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 6 0 0 28
Tuivailala, Sam 2018: 88 26 5 0 2 8 1 2 1 20 2 0 100
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 89 23 4 0 3 9 0 1 1 21 2 0 100
Wacha, Michael 2018: 308 68 11 0 9 36 5 4 2 71 5 0 355
Wacha, Michael proj: 320 80 17 1 8 28 2 2 2 74 4 1 354
Wainwright, Adam 2018: 69 19 5 0 2 14 1 2 2 15 0 0 88
Wainwright, Adam proj: 80 20 4 0 2 6 0 1 1 18 1 0 88
Weaver, Luke 2018: 325 85 9 3 10 32 1 7 2 77 1 0 367
Weaver, Luke proj: 329 89 13 1 11 28 2 5 2 91 0 1 366
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 2594 621 102 15 71 268 28 27 39 647 26 4 2956
PROJECTED: 2637 644 116 11 77 242 19 19 33 650 27 8 2950
difference: -43 -23 -14 +4 -6 +26 +9 +8 +6 -3 -1 -4 +6
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .239 .244
Slugging Average: .372 .384
Walks (per PA): .091 .082
SOs (per PA): .219 .220
On-Base Average: .314 .312
Power Factor: 1.56 1.57
OPS: .686 .696
TPP Runs (to date): 315 318

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 3 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 June 2018, at 7:02 am Pacific Time.