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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 23 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2017: 151 35 5 1 3 10 2 2 3 33 1 0 168
Bowman, Matt proj: 153 35 6 1 3 11 1 1 1 32 1 0 167
Brebbia, John 2017: 79 13 4 0 2 4 0 0 3 15 4 0 86
Brebbia, John proj: 79 13 4 0 2 4 0 0 3 15 4 0 86
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 62 23 3 0 2 11 2 3 0 16 1 1 78
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 69 16 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 21 2 1 79
Cecil, Brett 2017: 149 39 11 0 5 13 3 0 0 35 4 2 165
Cecil, Brett proj: 148 38 8 1 5 13 1 1 1 34 3 1 164
Duke, Zach 2017: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Duke, Zach proj: 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Gant, John 2017: 13 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 15
Gant, John proj: 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 14
Gonzales, Marco 2017: 16 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Gonzales, Marco proj: 14 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Leake, Mike 2017: 444 119 26 2 12 30 6 4 3 77 3 2 487
Leake, Mike proj: 447 120 24 2 14 28 4 4 4 79 5 2 487
Lynn, Lance 2017: 419 89 11 3 21 39 1 4 7 101 2 3 470
Lynn, Lance proj: 418 102 20 3 10 41 2 4 5 107 3 3 470
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 108 27 7 0 2 10 2 0 4 30 2 0 124
Lyons, Tyler proj: 112 27 6 1 4 9 1 1 1 28 1 0 124
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 476 105 21 2 16 47 2 3 4 136 4 3 532
Martinez, Carlos proj: 473 115 19 2 10 46 2 4 6 123 5 3 531
Mayers, Mike 2017: 13 4 2 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 18
Mayers, Mike proj: 15 7 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 18
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 178 50 8 0 8 12 2 2 2 41 0 0 196
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 180 40 6 0 5 12 1 2 2 55 1 0 197
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 135 28 1 1 2 17 3 0 2 58 0 1 157
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 137 32 4 1 2 16 1 1 2 49 1 1 157
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 115 30 7 1 3 16 0 0 1 32 2 1 132
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 115 23 5 1 3 15 1 1 1 37 3 1 133
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 80 27 11 0 4 4 1 0 2 14 0 0 87
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 79 18 4 1 3 7 1 1 1 17 3 0 89
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 78 17 2 0 2 7 0 0 1 18 1 0 86
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 75 19 2 0 2 10 0 0 1 19 2 0 86
Wacha, Michael 2017: 383 100 20 3 10 32 2 2 2 100 7 2 421
Wacha, Michael proj: 382 96 21 2 9 32 3 3 2 89 3 2 422
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 441 122 27 4 12 35 0 4 5 95 2 1 485
Wainwright, Adam proj: 444 111 23 2 9 30 3 5 3 99 3 2 485
Weaver, Luke 2017: 11 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 12
Weaver, Luke proj: 11 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 3353 840 167 18 110 293 28 24 39 810 33 16 3737
PROJECTED: 3366 824 159 17 85 287 23 29 34 814 40 16 3739
difference: -13 +16 +8 +1 +25 +6 +5 -5 +5 -4 -7 0 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .251 .245
Slugging Average: .409 .378
Walks (per PA): .078 .077
SOs (per PA): .217 .218
On-Base Average: .314 .306
Power Factor: 1.63 1.54
OPS: .723 .684
TPP Runs (to date): 425 390

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 35 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 24 July 2017, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.