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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alcantara, Sandy 2017: 33 9 1 0 2 6 0 0 0 10 0 0 39
Alcantara, Sandy proj: 33 9 1 0 2 6 0 0 0 10 0 0 39
Bowman, Matt 2017: 218 52 9 2 4 18 4 2 5 46 2 1 247
Bowman, Matt proj: 223 52 10 2 4 18 2 1 3 46 2 1 247
Brebbia, John 2017: 192 37 11 1 8 11 0 1 5 51 4 0 209
Brebbia, John proj: 192 37 11 1 8 11 0 1 5 51 4 0 209
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 62 23 3 0 2 11 2 3 0 16 1 1 78
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 69 16 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 21 2 1 79
Cecil, Brett 2017: 256 67 18 0 7 16 5 0 0 66 5 2 277
Cecil, Brett proj: 249 65 13 1 8 22 2 1 2 59 4 1 276
Duke, Zach 2017: 66 13 2 0 3 6 0 0 2 12 1 1 74
Duke, Zach proj: 67 20 4 0 2 5 0 1 0 10 1 1 73
Flaherty, Jack 2017: 81 23 2 1 4 10 2 0 1 20 0 1 94
Flaherty, Jack proj: 81 23 2 1 4 10 2 0 1 20 0 1 94
Gant, John 2017: 64 17 2 1 4 10 1 0 1 11 0 1 76
Gant, John proj: 66 18 4 1 3 8 1 1 1 15 1 1 77
Gonzales, Marco 2017: 16 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Gonzales, Marco proj: 14 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 15
Leake, Mike 2017: 600 169 31 2 19 35 6 6 7 103 5 2 654
Leake, Mike proj: 601 162 33 3 19 37 5 5 6 106 7 3 654
Lucas, Josh 2017: 27 7 0 1 2 4 0 0 1 7 1 1 32
Lucas, Josh proj: 27 7 0 1 2 4 0 0 1 7 1 1 32
Lynn, Lance 2017: 676 151 21 7 27 78 3 9 10 153 4 7 776
Lynn, Lance proj: 687 167 33 6 16 69 4 8 8 173 5 5 776
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 189 39 10 0 3 20 3 1 7 68 3 1 220
Lyons, Tyler proj: 198 45 10 1 7 16 1 1 3 54 3 0 219
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 773 179 34 4 27 71 2 4 8 217 4 4 858
Martinez, Carlos proj: 766 186 32 4 18 73 3 7 10 200 7 5 859
Mayers, Mike 2017: 19 8 4 0 2 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Mayers, Mike proj: 20 10 2 0 2 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 24
Nicasio, Juan 2017: 42 9 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 11 2 0 44
Nicasio, Juan proj: 39 11 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 43
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 239 68 11 1 10 15 4 3 3 54 0 0 264
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 242 56 9 0 7 15 2 2 2 72 1 0 263
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 176 37 1 1 3 20 3 1 2 76 1 1 202
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 176 41 5 1 2 21 1 1 2 63 1 1 201
Sherriff, Ryan 2017: 55 13 2 0 2 4 0 0 1 15 1 0 60
Sherriff, Ryan proj: 55 13 2 0 2 4 0 0 1 15 1 0 60
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 129 35 8 1 4 20 1 0 1 36 2 2 151
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 131 27 6 1 4 17 1 1 1 42 3 1 151
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 80 27 11 0 4 4 1 0 2 14 0 0 87
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 79 18 4 1 3 7 1 1 1 17 3 0 89
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 157 35 7 0 4 11 0 1 2 34 2 0 171
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 152 38 6 1 5 16 0 1 2 36 4 0 171
Wacha, Michael 2017: 636 170 33 3 17 55 4 3 3 158 14 3 701
Wacha, Michael proj: 636 161 34 3 16 53 4 4 4 147 7 3 701
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 490 140 27 4 14 45 1 5 5 96 2 1 546
Wainwright, Adam proj: 499 125 26 2 10 35 3 6 4 111 4 2 547
Weaver, Luke 2017: 232 59 11 0 7 17 1 1 1 72 0 3 252
Weaver, Luke proj: 229 63 11 0 8 17 2 2 2 70 0 2 252
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5508 1393 262 31 183 493 45 40 67 1351 54 32 6153
PROJECTED: 5531 1374 264 30 155 479 36 45 60 1359 62 29 6151
difference: -23 +19 -2 +1 +28 +14 +9 -5 +7 -8 -8 +3 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .253 .248
Slugging Average: .411 .391
Walks (per PA): .080 .078
SOs (per PA): .220 .221
On-Base Average: .317 .311
Power Factor: 1.63 1.57
OPS: .729 .702
TPP Runs (to date): 710 669

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 41 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.