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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Brebbia, John 2019: 273 59 12 1 6 27 1 0 3 87 1 1 304
Brebbia, John proj: 276 59 13 1 8 23 1 1 3 83 3 1 304
Cabrera, Genesis 2019: 84 23 4 0 2 11 1 1 2 19 2 0 99
Cabrera, Genesis proj: 84 23 4 0 2 11 1 1 2 19 2 0 99
Fernandez, Junior 2019: 44 9 0 0 2 6 0 0 4 16 2 0 54
Fernandez, Junior proj: 44 9 0 0 2 6 0 0 4 16 2 0 54
Flaherty, Jack 2019: 704 135 24 1 25 55 3 3 7 231 1 3 772
Flaherty, Jack proj: 692 139 22 2 26 65 3 3 10 226 3 2 773
Gallegos, Giovanny 2019: 259 44 10 1 9 16 1 0 3 93 2 1 279
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 258 51 12 1 9 16 1 1 2 86 2 2 278
Gant, John 2019: 235 51 11 1 4 34 0 0 0 60 1 0 269
Gant, John proj: 234 54 11 2 6 31 2 1 1 55 3 1 269
Gregerson, Luke 2019: 26 11 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 27
Gregerson, Luke proj: 25 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 7 1 0 27
Gyorko, Jedd 2019: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Gyorko, Jedd proj: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Helsley, Ryan 2019: 139 34 9 1 5 12 1 1 0 32 2 0 153
Helsley, Ryan proj: 139 34 9 1 5 12 1 1 0 32 2 0 153
Hicks, Jordan 2019: 98 16 3 0 2 11 0 0 1 31 0 0 110
Hicks, Jordan proj: 94 18 2 0 1 14 0 0 2 25 1 0 110
Hudson, Dakota 2019: 652 160 37 0 22 86 7 3 9 136 3 1 757
Hudson, Dakota proj: 648 155 35 0 19 90 8 3 9 134 3 1 758
Leone, Dominic 2019: 156 39 9 0 9 22 1 1 0 46 1 0 180
Leone, Dominic proj: 159 40 9 1 5 17 2 1 1 44 3 1 180
Martinez, Carlos 2019: 177 39 6 0 2 18 1 1 3 53 0 0 200
Martinez, Carlos proj: 177 42 7 1 4 18 1 2 3 47 2 1 201
Mayers, Mike 2019: 76 21 5 2 3 11 0 0 1 16 1 0 88
Mayers, Mike proj: 77 24 7 0 4 8 1 1 1 16 0 0 88
Mejia, Adalberto 2019: 16 8 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 17
Mejia, Adalberto proj: 15 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 17
Mikolas, Miles 2019: 710 193 33 6 27 32 7 3 12 144 5 2 764
Mikolas, Miles proj: 707 183 28 5 21 37 5 5 10 136 4 1 764
Miller, Andrew 2019: 200 45 2 0 11 27 1 0 8 70 1 0 236
Miller, Andrew proj: 203 47 9 1 5 25 2 3 4 64 4 1 237
Ponce de Leon, Daniel 2019: 174 36 7 0 6 26 1 0 2 52 0 2 203
Ponce de Leon, Daniel proj: 176 36 8 0 5 24 1 0 2 50 0 1 203
Reyes, Alex 2019: 10 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 17
Reyes, Alex proj: 14 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 16
Shreve, Chasen 2019: 8 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 10
Shreve, Chasen proj: 9 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 10
Wacha, Michael 2019: 493 143 25 1 26 55 5 6 3 104 5 3 562
Wacha, Michael proj: 505 129 26 2 15 46 4 4 3 116 5 2 562
Wainwright, Adam 2019: 662 181 38 3 22 64 5 6 8 153 4 4 745
Wainwright, Adam proj: 678 172 36 3 14 49 4 8 5 151 5 3 744
Webb, Tyler 2019: 192 33 5 2 7 23 2 2 2 48 3 1 221
Webb, Tyler proj: 192 41 8 1 8 24 1 2 2 45 2 1 221
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 5389 1284 246 19 191 545 38 27 69 1399 34 19 6068
PROJECTED: 5407 1270 248 21 160 523 38 37 64 1362 47 18 6069
difference: -18 +14 -2 -2 +31 +22 0 -10 +5 +37 -13 +1 -1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .238 .235
Slugging Average: .397 .377
Walks (per PA): .090 .086
SOs (per PA): .231 .224
On-Base Average: .313 .306
Power Factor: 1.67 1.61
OPS: .710 .683
TPP Runs (to date): 671 630

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 41 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.