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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2018


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Saturday, 21 April 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2018: 38 13 0 1 1 5 0 1 1 10 0 0 45
Bowman, Matt proj: 40 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 8 0 0 44
Brebbia, John 2018: 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 6
Brebbia, John proj: 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6
Cecil, Brett 2018: 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
Cecil, Brett proj: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Flaherty, Jack 2018: 20 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 21
Flaherty, Jack proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 20
Gregerson, Luke 2018: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Gregerson, Luke proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Hicks, Jordan 2018: 37 5 1 0 0 8 0 0 2 6 0 0 47
Hicks, Jordan proj: 37 5 1 0 0 8 0 0 2 6 0 0 47
Holland, Greg 2018: 10 2 0 0 1 8 0 1 0 2 0 0 19
Holland, Greg proj: 17 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 6 0 0 19
Leone, Dominic 2018: 31 9 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 31
Leone, Dominic proj: 28 7 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 31
Lyons, Tyler 2018: 36 12 4 0 1 4 0 1 1 10 1 0 42
Lyons, Tyler proj: 38 9 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 10 1 0 42
Martinez, Carlos 2018: 109 19 4 0 1 17 0 2 5 37 1 0 133
Martinez, Carlos proj: 118 28 5 1 3 12 0 1 2 31 1 1 133
Mayers, Mike 2018: 20 5 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 21
Mayers, Mike proj: 18 8 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 21
Mikolas, Miles 2018: 76 19 4 0 4 2 0 0 0 14 0 0 78
Mikolas, Miles proj: 70 19 3 0 3 6 0 0 1 12 0 0 77
Norris, Bud 2018: 39 11 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 17 0 0 42
Norris, Bud proj: 37 10 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 9 1 0 41
Sherriff, Ryan 2018: 10 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 12
Sherriff, Ryan proj: 11 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
Tuivailala, Sam 2018: 16 6 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 20
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Wacha, Michael 2018: 79 20 4 0 2 11 1 1 1 15 1 0 93
Wacha, Michael proj: 84 21 5 0 2 7 1 1 1 19 1 0 94
Wainwright, Adam 2018: 60 16 5 0 2 8 1 2 2 12 0 0 73
Wainwright, Adam proj: 67 17 3 0 1 5 0 1 0 15 0 0 73
Weaver, Luke 2018: 80 21 1 1 1 6 1 2 1 20 0 0 90
Weaver, Luke proj: 81 22 4 0 3 6 1 1 1 24 0 1 90
2018 TEAM TOTALS: 673 168 28 2 18 78 4 10 14 172 4 0 779
PROJECTED: 694 174 34 1 20 66 3 4 9 165 5 2 776
difference: -21 -6 -6 +1 -2 +12 +1 +6 +5 +7 -1 -2 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .250 .251
Slugging Average: .377 .389
Walks (per PA): .100 .085
SOs (per PA): .221 .212
On-Base Average: .334 .321
Power Factor: 1.51 1.55
OPS: .711 .710
TPP Runs (to date): 88 86

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 2 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.