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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2019


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Brebbia, John 2019: 45 5 1 0 1 5 0 0 1 16 0 0 51
Brebbia, John proj: 46 9 2 0 2 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 50
Flaherty, Jack 2019: 98 28 4 0 7 5 1 0 1 32 0 1 105
Flaherty, Jack proj: 93 21 3 0 4 10 1 0 2 30 1 0 106
Gallegos, Giovanny 2019: 26 6 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 13 0 0 30
Gallegos, Giovanny proj: 27 7 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 9 0 0 29
Gant, John 2019: 43 3 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 12 1 0 50
Gant, John proj: 43 10 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 10 1 0 49
Helsley, Ryan 2019: 15 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 15
Helsley, Ryan proj: 15 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 15
Hicks, Jordan 2019: 29 5 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 11 0 0 34
Hicks, Jordan proj: 29 6 1 0 0 4 0 0 1 7 0 0 34
Hudson, Dakota 2019: 81 26 2 0 8 12 0 0 0 18 0 0 93
Hudson, Dakota proj: 78 20 3 0 4 13 1 0 0 16 0 0 92
Leone, Dominic 2019: 36 4 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 12 0 0 42
Leone, Dominic proj: 37 9 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 10 1 0 42
Mayers, Mike 2019: 35 10 2 1 2 5 0 0 1 8 0 0 41
Mayers, Mike proj: 36 12 3 0 2 3 1 0 0 8 0 0 40
Mikolas, Miles 2019: 113 28 8 2 5 7 0 0 3 15 1 0 123
Mikolas, Miles proj: 113 29 4 1 3 6 1 1 2 21 1 0 123
Miller, Andrew 2019: 32 10 1 0 4 6 0 0 2 10 1 0 40
Miller, Andrew proj: 34 8 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 11 1 0 39
Reyes, Alex 2019: 10 2 0 0 1 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 17
Reyes, Alex proj: 14 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 16
Wacha, Michael 2019: 80 20 6 1 5 14 2 0 0 24 1 0 96
Wacha, Michael proj: 86 22 5 0 2 8 1 1 1 20 1 0 97
Wainwright, Adam 2019: 73 20 10 0 2 9 1 2 1 19 0 0 86
Wainwright, Adam proj: 78 20 4 0 2 6 0 1 1 17 1 0 86
Webb, Tyler 2019: 18 3 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
Webb, Tyler proj: 18 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 20
2019 TEAM TOTALS: 734 172 36 5 42 90 5 3 11 200 4 1 843
PROJECTED: 747 183 33 1 26 73 6 3 9 186 8 0 838
difference: -13 -11 +3 +4 +16 +17 -1 0 +2 +14 -4 +1 +5
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .234 .245
Slugging Average: .469 .396
Walks (per PA): .107 .087
SOs (per PA): .237 .221
On-Base Average: .324 .316
Power Factor: 2 1.62
OPS: .793 .712
TPP Runs (to date): 112 95

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 17 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.