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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2017: 68 13 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 15 1 0 76
Bowman, Matt proj: 69 15 3 1 1 5 0 0 0 14 1 0 74
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 49 18 1 0 2 9 1 3 0 10 1 1 62
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 55 13 2 0 1 6 0 1 0 17 1 0 62
Cecil, Brett 2017: 62 20 4 0 3 9 3 0 0 18 4 0 74
Cecil, Brett proj: 66 17 3 0 2 6 1 0 1 15 1 0 74
Leake, Mike 2017: 198 43 13 1 4 10 1 2 0 37 2 2 211
Leake, Mike proj: 194 52 11 1 6 12 2 2 2 34 2 1 212
Lynn, Lance 2017: 166 34 5 0 8 17 0 2 5 40 2 2 190
Lynn, Lance proj: 169 41 8 1 4 17 1 2 2 43 1 1 191
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 8 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 12
Lyons, Tyler proj: 11 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 12
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 215 44 5 1 7 22 0 1 2 62 2 1 240
Martinez, Carlos proj: 213 52 8 1 4 21 1 2 3 55 2 1 240
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 86 23 6 0 3 9 0 2 2 16 0 0 99
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 90 19 3 0 2 6 0 1 1 29 0 0 98
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 59 11 0 1 1 4 1 0 0 28 0 0 64
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 56 13 2 0 1 6 0 0 1 20 0 0 63
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 67 18 3 1 2 11 0 0 1 16 2 1 79
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 68 14 3 1 2 9 1 0 1 22 2 1 79
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 69 20 7 0 4 4 1 0 2 12 0 0 76
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 68 15 3 0 2 6 0 0 0 15 3 0 74
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 42 10 1 0 1 5 0 0 1 8 1 0 48
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 41 11 1 0 1 6 0 0 1 10 1 0 48
Wacha, Michael 2017: 153 37 8 1 4 12 0 2 1 39 3 1 168
Wacha, Michael proj: 152 38 8 1 4 13 1 1 1 35 1 1 168
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 196 62 13 2 4 20 0 4 1 42 1 1 221
Wainwright, Adam proj: 202 51 11 1 4 14 1 3 1 45 2 1 221
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1438 354 67 8 44 139 9 17 17 345 19 9 1620
PROJECTED: 1454 354 67 7 34 128 8 12 14 357 17 6 1616
difference: -16 0 0 +1 +10 +11 +1 +5 +3 -12 +2 +3 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .246 .243
Slugging Average: .396 .369
Walks (per PA): .086 .079
SOs (per PA): .213 .220
On-Base Average: .315 .307
Power Factor: 1.61 1.52
OPS: .711 .676
TPP Runs (to date): 181 166

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 15 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.