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STL "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Friday, 18 August 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Bowman, Matt 2017: 181 43 7 1 4 14 2 2 5 38 2 1 204
Bowman, Matt proj: 185 43 8 1 3 14 1 1 3 38 2 1 204
Brebbia, John 2017: 122 22 7 1 4 5 0 1 3 27 4 0 131
Brebbia, John proj: 122 22 7 1 4 5 0 1 3 27 4 0 131
Broxton, Jonathan 2017: 62 23 3 0 2 11 2 3 0 16 1 1 78
Broxton, Jonathan proj: 69 16 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 21 2 1 79
Cecil, Brett 2017: 197 57 13 0 6 15 3 0 0 45 4 2 215
Cecil, Brett proj: 193 50 10 1 6 17 2 1 2 45 3 1 215
Duke, Zach 2017: 23 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 2 3 0 1 29
Duke, Zach proj: 26 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 28
Gant, John 2017: 13 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 15
Gant, John proj: 13 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 14
Gonzales, Marco 2017: 16 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 16
Gonzales, Marco proj: 14 4 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 16
Leake, Mike 2017: 557 155 29 2 15 35 6 5 7 97 5 2 610
Leake, Mike proj: 560 151 30 3 17 35 5 5 5 98 7 3 610
Lynn, Lance 2017: 521 112 15 5 22 57 3 6 7 120 2 6 594
Lynn, Lance proj: 527 128 25 4 12 52 3 6 6 133 4 4 594
Lyons, Tyler 2017: 138 29 8 0 2 14 3 0 4 46 2 1 159
Lyons, Tyler proj: 144 33 7 1 5 11 1 1 2 38 2 0 159
Martinez, Carlos 2017: 598 136 26 3 22 56 2 3 4 169 4 3 663
Martinez, Carlos proj: 591 144 24 3 13 57 2 5 7 154 6 4 662
Mayers, Mike 2017: 19 8 4 0 2 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 25
Mayers, Mike proj: 20 10 2 0 2 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 24
Oh, Seung-Hwan 2017: 215 60 10 0 8 13 4 2 3 52 0 0 237
Oh, Seung-Hwan proj: 218 50 8 0 6 13 2 2 2 67 1 0 237
Rosenthal, Trevor 2017: 176 37 1 1 3 20 3 1 2 76 1 1 202
Rosenthal, Trevor proj: 176 41 5 1 2 21 1 1 2 63 1 1 201
Siegrist, Kevin 2017: 129 35 8 1 4 20 1 0 1 36 2 2 151
Siegrist, Kevin proj: 131 27 6 1 4 17 1 1 1 42 3 1 151
Socolovich, Miguel 2017: 80 27 11 0 4 4 1 0 2 14 0 0 87
Socolovich, Miguel proj: 79 18 4 1 3 7 1 1 1 17 3 0 89
Tuivailala, Sam 2017: 100 23 4 0 3 10 0 0 1 22 2 0 111
Tuivailala, Sam proj: 97 25 4 0 3 12 0 0 1 24 3 0 110
Wacha, Michael 2017: 463 122 23 3 12 39 3 2 2 116 9 3 509
Wacha, Michael proj: 462 116 25 2 11 38 3 3 3 107 4 2 509
Wainwright, Adam 2017: 484 137 27 4 14 44 0 4 5 96 2 1 537
Wainwright, Adam proj: 491 123 26 2 10 34 3 6 4 109 4 2 538
Weaver, Luke 2017: 59 14 3 0 2 7 0 1 0 16 0 1 67
Weaver, Luke proj: 59 17 3 0 3 5 1 1 1 17 0 0 67
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 4153 1052 200 22 135 374 35 30 48 997 40 25 4640
PROJECTED: 4177 1030 201 21 108 353 28 36 44 1012 49 20 4638
difference: -24 +22 -1 +1 +27 +21 +7 -6 +4 -15 -9 +5 +2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .253 .247
Slugging Average: .410 .382
Walks (per PA): .081 .076
SOs (per PA): .215 .218
On-Base Average: .318 .308
Power Factor: 1.62 1.55
OPS: .727 .690
TPP Runs (to date): 533 490

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 43 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 19 August 2017, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.