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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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TOR "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Anderson, Brett 2017: 129 39 9 0 3 9 2 0 0 22 5 1 140
Anderson, Brett proj: 129 35 6 0 3 9 1 1 1 24 2 1 141
Barnes, Danny 2017: 240 48 8 0 11 24 0 0 1 62 8 1 265
Barnes, Danny proj: 239 51 11 0 9 24 2 0 1 62 7 2 266
Beliveau, Jeff 2017: 60 17 4 0 4 6 2 1 1 17 0 0 70
Beliveau, Jeff proj: 61 16 3 0 3 7 1 1 1 16 1 0 71
Biagini, Joe 2017: 471 125 22 4 15 42 2 0 2 97 19 1 517
Biagini, Joe proj: 469 124 24 3 11 39 3 1 4 101 17 2 516
Bolsinger, Mike 2017: 161 48 11 0 9 27 5 0 3 39 5 0 196
Bolsinger, Mike proj: 172 48 9 1 7 19 2 2 1 40 4 2 196
Campos, Leonel 2017: 51 11 5 0 2 8 0 0 1 15 1 0 60
Campos, Leonel proj: 51 12 4 0 2 8 0 0 1 15 1 0 60
Cole, Taylor 2017: 8 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 10
Cole, Taylor proj: 8 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 10
Dermody, Matt 2017: 87 23 3 0 6 5 1 0 2 15 3 0 95
Dermody, Matt proj: 87 25 3 0 6 4 1 0 3 17 3 0 95
Estrada, Marco 2017: 727 186 49 4 31 71 6 0 2 176 8 4 806
Estrada, Marco proj: 733 170 36 4 29 61 4 4 4 176 14 5 806
Grilli, Jason 2017: 86 24 6 0 9 9 0 0 0 23 1 0 95
Grilli, Jason proj: 83 21 4 1 2 9 1 1 1 22 1 0 95
Happ, J.A. 2017: 575 145 22 3 18 46 4 1 0 142 8 2 626
Happ, J.A. proj: 560 141 31 3 18 55 4 5 2 126 7 3 626
Harrell, Lucas 2017: 29 10 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 33
Harrell, Lucas proj: 29 8 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 5 1 0 33
House, T.J. 2017: 9 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 10
House, T.J. proj: 9 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Howell, J.P. 2017: 45 13 6 0 2 7 0 0 0 6 0 0 52
Howell, J.P. proj: 45 11 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 11 1 0 51
Koehler, Tom 2017: 66 16 4 1 1 6 1 0 2 18 0 0 75
Koehler, Tom proj: 66 17 3 0 2 7 0 1 1 13 1 1 75
Latos, Mat 2017: 61 19 6 0 5 8 0 0 1 10 1 1 70
Latos, Mat proj: 63 15 3 0 2 5 0 1 0 15 2 0 69
Lawrence, Casey 2017: 59 21 5 0 2 11 1 1 0 7 3 0 72
Lawrence, Casey proj: 64 21 2 0 3 7 1 0 0 14 2 0 72
Leone, Dominic 2017: 253 51 16 3 6 23 3 0 0 81 5 0 279
Leone, Dominic proj: 248 62 15 2 7 25 4 0 2 68 5 2 279
Liriano, Francisco 2017: 325 91 22 3 11 43 3 2 2 74 7 3 375
Liriano, Francisco proj: 329 80 15 2 9 39 2 2 3 89 7 2 375
Loup, Aaron 2017: 225 59 10 0 4 29 0 5 6 64 4 1 265
Loup, Aaron proj: 234 58 11 2 5 19 2 3 6 57 4 3 264
Mayza, Tim 2017: 75 24 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 27 2 1 79
Mayza, Tim proj: 75 24 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 27 2 1 79
Osuna, Roberto 2017: 234 46 7 1 3 9 2 1 3 83 6 0 249
Osuna, Roberto proj: 232 46 10 1 6 12 2 1 2 74 4 1 249
Ramirez, Carlos 2017: 54 6 2 0 3 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 58
Ramirez, Carlos proj: 54 6 2 0 3 3 0 0 1 14 1 0 58
Rowley, Chris 2017: 79 24 2 3 4 10 0 0 0 11 1 0 89
Rowley, Chris proj: 79 24 2 3 4 10 0 0 0 11 1 0 89
Sanchez, Aaron 2017: 146 42 7 0 6 20 0 0 1 24 5 1 167
Sanchez, Aaron proj: 149 33 6 0 4 16 0 1 1 31 3 1 167
Santos, Luis 2017: 64 15 5 0 4 4 0 0 0 16 1 0 68
Santos, Luis proj: 64 15 5 0 4 4 0 0 0 16 1 0 68
Smith, Chris 2017: 22 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 23
Smith, Chris proj: 22 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 23
Smith, Joe 2017: 131 30 5 0 3 10 1 1 1 51 2 1 144
Smith, Joe proj: 128 29 5 1 3 12 0 1 2 31 2 1 143
Sparkman, Glenn 2017: 11 9 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 12
Sparkman, Glenn proj: 11 9 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 12
Stroman, Marcus 2017: 762 201 33 1 21 62 4 0 6 164 10 5 834
Stroman, Marcus proj: 772 199 36 2 18 54 3 1 5 165 10 4 835
Tepera, Ryan 2017: 278 57 12 1 7 31 1 1 8 81 11 2 319
Tepera, Ryan proj: 282 58 10 1 10 27 1 1 8 73 7 1 319
Tepesch, Nick 2017: 56 17 3 0 5 7 0 1 3 7 0 0 67
Tepesch, Nick proj: 60 17 4 0 2 5 1 0 1 9 1 0 67
Valdez, Cesar 2017: 88 27 11 1 3 7 0 0 1 16 0 2 96
Valdez, Cesar proj: 87 28 7 1 4 9 0 0 1 14 0 1 97
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 5667 1460 310 26 203 549 38 14 48 1372 119 26 6316
PROJECTED: 5694 1419 283 28 182 506 35 27 54 1341 114 33 6316
difference: -27 +41 +27 -2 +21 +43 +3 -13 -6 +31 +5 -7 0
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .258 .249
Slugging Average: .429 .405
Walks (per PA): .087 .080
SOs (per PA): .217 .212
On-Base Average: .326 .313
Power Factor: 1.67 1.62
OPS: .755 .718
TPP Runs (to date): 788 722

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 66 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:15 am Pacific Time.