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TOR "Expected" Pitching Results, 2017


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Monday, 22 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Barnes, Danny 2017: 64 15 1 0 2 4 0 0 0 17 1 1 68
Barnes, Danny proj: 62 16 3 0 1 5 1 0 0 17 1 1 68
Biagini, Joe 2017: 116 24 4 0 2 5 0 0 2 27 1 0 123
Biagini, Joe proj: 112 27 6 0 1 7 1 1 2 26 2 1 123
Bolsinger, Mike 2017: 61 17 3 0 2 11 1 0 3 12 1 0 76
Bolsinger, Mike proj: 67 19 3 1 2 7 1 1 1 15 1 1 77
Campos, Leonel 2017: 18 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 21
Campos, Leonel proj: 18 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 21
Dermody, Matt 2017: 5 4 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Dermody, Matt proj: 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Estrada, Marco 2017: 240 55 17 1 8 16 0 0 1 70 4 0 257
Estrada, Marco proj: 235 53 11 1 9 18 1 2 1 57 5 1 257
Grilli, Jason 2017: 59 16 4 0 5 9 0 0 0 17 0 0 68
Grilli, Jason proj: 59 15 3 1 2 7 1 1 1 16 1 0 69
Happ, J.A. 2017: 69 18 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 20 1 0 69
Happ, J.A. proj: 62 15 4 0 2 6 0 1 0 14 1 0 69
Howell, J.P. 2017: 21 7 4 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 27
Howell, J.P. proj: 24 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 0 0 27
Latos, Mat 2017: 61 19 6 0 5 8 0 0 1 10 1 1 70
Latos, Mat proj: 63 15 3 0 2 5 0 1 0 15 2 0 69
Lawrence, Casey 2017: 59 21 5 0 2 11 1 1 0 7 3 0 72
Lawrence, Casey proj: 61 21 5 0 3 9 1 1 0 8 3 0 72
Leone, Dominic 2017: 75 18 7 1 3 9 3 0 0 22 0 0 87
Leone, Dominic proj: 76 21 5 1 2 8 2 0 1 19 1 1 87
Liriano, Francisco 2017: 113 31 6 1 3 23 0 1 2 30 1 0 139
Liriano, Francisco proj: 122 29 5 1 3 14 1 1 1 33 3 1 139
Loup, Aaron 2017: 64 16 1 0 1 9 0 1 4 16 2 0 78
Loup, Aaron proj: 69 17 3 1 1 5 1 1 2 16 1 1 78
Osuna, Roberto 2017: 60 15 3 0 1 1 1 1 0 18 2 0 63
Osuna, Roberto proj: 59 12 3 0 2 3 1 0 0 18 1 0 63
Sanchez, Aaron 2017: 93 22 4 0 4 9 0 0 1 18 1 1 103
Sanchez, Aaron proj: 92 20 4 0 2 9 0 0 1 20 2 1 102
Smith, Joe 2017: 75 17 2 0 1 7 0 1 1 31 0 1 84
Smith, Joe proj: 74 17 3 0 1 7 0 1 1 17 1 1 83
Stroman, Marcus 2017: 220 64 10 0 4 15 0 0 1 46 3 2 236
Stroman, Marcus proj: 220 57 11 1 5 14 1 0 1 47 3 1 236
Tepera, Ryan 2017: 90 15 1 1 1 9 0 0 3 26 1 1 102
Tepera, Ryan proj: 91 18 2 0 3 7 0 0 3 21 0 0 101
Valdez, Cesar 2017: 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Valdez, Cesar proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
2017 TEAM TOTALS: 1566 399 83 5 53 156 6 5 20 393 22 7 1753
PROJECTED: 1575 386 76 7 44 137 12 11 15 371 28 10 1750
difference: -9 +13 +7 -2 +9 +19 -6 -6 +5 +22 -6 -3 +3
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .255 .245
Slugging Average: .416 .386
Walks (per PA): .089 .078
SOs (per PA): .224 .212
On-Base Average: .328 .307
Power Factor: 1.63 1.58
OPS: .744 .693
TPP Runs (to date): 212 188

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 24 more than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 May 2017, at 6:59 am Pacific Time.