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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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WAS "Expected" Pitching Results, 2016


About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of batters faced to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines—"projected" and actual—is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (batters faced) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games of Tuesday, 4 October 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

Handedness Key:   + R   * L

(You can also look up the stat definitions.)

Pitchers, listed in alphabetical order:
Each name is a click-on link to that man's career stats.

(or see the data for Batting)


Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Belisle, Matt 2016: 176 43 8 1 2 7 1 1 1 32 1 2 186
Belisle, Matt proj: 170 48 9 1 4 11 1 2 2 33 2 1 186
Burnett, Sean 2016: 21 5 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 22
Burnett, Sean proj: 19 5 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 21
Cole, A.J. 2016: 149 37 7 2 7 14 3 0 2 39 2 1 168
Cole, A.J. proj: 151 40 7 2 6 12 3 1 2 38 2 1 169
Giolito, Lucas 2016: 88 26 4 1 7 12 0 0 1 11 0 0 101
Giolito, Lucas proj: 88 26 4 1 7 12 0 0 1 11 0 0 101
Glover, Koda 2016: 75 15 5 0 3 7 0 0 1 16 0 1 83
Glover, Koda proj: 75 15 5 0 3 7 0 0 1 16 0 1 83
Gonzalez, Gio 2016: 684 179 34 3 19 59 5 8 9 171 11 4 765
Gonzalez, Gio proj: 676 162 31 4 15 75 4 6 5 176 11 4 766
Gott, Trevor 2016: 24 6 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 6 0 0 28
Gott, Trevor proj: 25 6 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 27
Grace, Matt 2016: 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 10
Grace, Matt proj: 9 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 10
Kelley, Shawn 2016: 211 41 11 3 9 11 2 0 0 80 1 0 224
Kelley, Shawn proj: 202 47 9 1 7 17 2 1 1 64 1 1 223
Latos, Mat 2016: 38 11 2 1 1 5 1 0 0 10 1 1 44
Latos, Mat proj: 40 10 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 9 1 0 43
Lopez, Reynaldo 2016: 174 47 14 0 4 22 2 3 0 42 1 0 201
Lopez, Reynaldo proj: 174 47 14 0 4 22 2 3 0 42 1 0 201
Martin, Rafael 2016: 11 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 12
Martin, Rafael proj: 11 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 12
Melancon, Mark 2016: 104 21 5 0 1 3 0 0 0 27 0 0 107
Melancon, Mark proj: 99 22 3 0 1 6 0 0 1 24 1 0 106
Papelbon, Jonathan 2016: 137 37 11 0 3 14 0 1 0 31 2 0 152
Papelbon, Jonathan proj: 139 30 6 0 3 10 1 1 2 42 3 1 153
Perez, Oliver 2016: 153 38 10 0 4 20 1 1 7 46 2 0 182
Perez, Oliver proj: 154 38 7 1 6 22 1 2 2 43 1 1 181
Petit, Yusmeiro 2016: 246 67 11 2 12 15 1 3 0 49 3 0 265
Petit, Yusmeiro proj: 245 63 13 2 10 17 2 2 0 54 5 1 266
Rivero, Felipe 2016: 182 43 11 0 4 15 1 0 5 53 0 1 203
Rivero, Felipe proj: 182 40 9 0 4 17 1 0 3 53 2 1 203
Roark, Tanner 2016: 758 173 20 2 17 73 1 10 13 172 16 7 855
Roark, Tanner proj: 780 187 29 1 19 55 3 8 9 155 10 6 855
Ross, Joe 2016: 402 108 13 4 9 29 3 7 6 93 2 2 447
Ross, Joe proj: 405 101 14 4 9 29 2 6 5 95 2 2 447
Rzepczynski, Marc 2016: 37 8 2 0 0 5 1 1 2 9 0 1 46
Rzepczynski, Marc proj: 40 10 2 0 1 5 0 0 1 10 1 0 46
Scherzer, Max 2016: 830 165 37 4 31 56 3 7 6 284 8 3 902
Scherzer, Max proj: 821 190 40 5 25 62 5 6 7 245 12 8 901
Solis, Sammy 2016: 147 31 9 0 1 21 0 3 1 47 0 1 172
Solis, Sammy proj: 151 36 8 0 2 16 1 3 1 41 0 1 172
Strasburg, Stephen 2016: 546 119 26 3 15 44 1 5 2 183 3 3 598
Strasburg, Stephen proj: 549 124 22 2 14 38 2 5 4 174 8 3 598
Treinen, Blake 2016: 228 51 8 1 5 31 2 2 0 63 1 1 263
Treinen, Blake proj: 233 59 8 1 3 26 1 1 1 55 2 1 262
2016 TEAM TOTALS: 5431 1272 252 27 155 468 28 52 57 1476 54 29 6036
PROJECTED: 5438 1311 245 25 146 468 31 47 48 1395 65 33 6032
difference: -7 -39 +7 +2 +9 0 -3 +5 +9 +81 -11 -4 +4
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .234 .241
Slugging Average: .376 .376
Walks (per PA): .078 .078
SOs (per PA): .245 .231
On-Base Average: .298 .303
Power Factor: 1.61 1.56
OPS: .674 .679
TPP Runs (to date): 609 619

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 10 less than Projected TPP.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 5 October 2016, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.