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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2019 Win Expectations


2019 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Thursday, 22 August 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 81
atl 89
bal 60
bos 96
chc 95
chw 66
cin 87
cle 88
col 79
det 61
hou 102
kan 68
laa 87
lad 110
mia 69
mil 88
min 89
nym 90
nyy 94
oak 87
phi 82
pit 73
sdg 82
sea 76
sfo 80
stl 95
tam 93
tex 72
tor 73
wsh 92
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 110
hou 102
bos 96
chc 95
stl 95
nyy 94
tam 93
wsh 92
nym 90
atl 89
min 89
cle 88
mil 88
oak 87
laa 87
cin 87
phi 82
sdg 82
ari 81
sfo 80
col 79
sea 76
tor 73
pit 73
tex 72
mia 69
kan 68
chw 66
det 61
bal 60




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This page was last modified on Friday, 23 August 2019, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.