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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2016 Win Expectations


2016 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Tuesday, 4 October 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 74
atl 69
bal 85
bos 98
chc 98
chw 85
cin 64
cle 91
col 75
det 91
hou 89
kan 80
laa 83
lad 98
mia 84
mil 76
min 73
nym 91
nyy 91
oak 78
phi 69
pit 81
sdg 68
sea 90
sfo 94
stl 95
tam 85
tex 86
tor 95
was 96
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 98
chc 98
bos 98
was 96
stl 95
tor 95
sfo 94
nyy 91
det 91
cle 91
nym 91
sea 90
hou 89
tex 86
bal 85
chw 85
tam 85
mia 84
laa 83
pit 81
kan 80
oak 78
mil 76
col 75
ari 74
min 73
atl 69
phi 69
sdg 68
cin 64




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 5 October 2016, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.