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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2018 Win Expectations


2018 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Sunday, 24 June 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 82
atl 86
bal 74
bos 96
chc 97
chw 69
cin 77
cle 94
col 77
det 71
hou 104
kan 66
laa 91
lad 98
mia 67
mil 91
min 77
nym 83
nyy 109
oak 86
phi 84
pit 77
sdg 66
sea 88
sfo 84
stl 88
tam 83
tex 80
tor 87
wsh 95
By Wins
Team Wins
nyy 109
hou 104
lad 98
chc 97
bos 96
wsh 95
cle 94
mil 91
laa 91
stl 88
sea 88
tor 87
oak 86
atl 86
sfo 84
phi 84
nym 83
tam 83
ari 82
tex 80
cin 77
min 77
pit 77
col 77
bal 74
det 71
chw 69
mia 67
kan 66
sdg 66




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 June 2018, at 7:05 am Pacific Time.