Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


2018 Win Expectations


2018 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 84
atl 86
bal 69
bos 95
chc 93
chw 68
cin 76
cle 95
col 84
det 67
hou 100
kan 69
laa 88
lad 104
mia 63
mil 90
min 79
nym 82
nyy 102
oak 91
phi 79
pit 76
sdg 66
sea 87
sfo 82
stl 88
tam 88
tex 80
tor 81
wsh 96
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 104
nyy 102
hou 100
wsh 96
cle 95
bos 95
chc 93
oak 91
mil 90
stl 88
tam 88
laa 88
sea 87
atl 86
ari 84
col 84
nym 82
sfo 82
tor 81
tex 80
min 79
phi 79
cin 76
pit 76
kan 69
bal 69
chw 68
det 67
sdg 66
mia 63




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of "Performance-Enhancing Drugs" in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2018 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 7:07 am Pacific Time.