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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2019 Win Expectations


2019 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Tuesday, 25 June 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 81
atl 91
bal 60
bos 96
chc 95
chw 69
cin 88
cle 86
col 80
det 60
hou 100
kan 73
laa 91
lad 109
mia 73
mil 90
min 90
nym 88
nyy 94
oak 86
phi 82
pit 72
sdg 80
sea 78
sfo 79
stl 96
tam 96
tex 76
tor 70
wsh 89
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 109
hou 100
tam 96
stl 96
bos 96
chc 95
nyy 94
laa 91
atl 91
min 90
mil 90
wsh 89
cin 88
nym 88
oak 86
cle 86
phi 82
ari 81
sdg 80
col 80
sfo 79
sea 78
tex 76
mia 73
kan 73
pit 72
tor 70
chw 69
bal 60
det 60




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 26 June 2019, at 6:58 am Pacific Time.