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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2018 Win Expectations


2018 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 85
atl 84
bal 73
bos 97
chc 94
chw 68
cin 76
cle 96
col 82
det 67
hou 101
kan 66
laa 90
lad 100
mia 65
mil 88
min 78
nym 80
nyy 104
oak 88
phi 80
pit 76
sdg 65
sea 85
sfo 84
stl 91
tam 84
tex 83
tor 82
wsh 95
By Wins
Team Wins
nyy 104
hou 101
lad 100
bos 97
cle 96
wsh 95
chc 94
stl 91
laa 90
oak 88
mil 88
ari 85
sea 85
sfo 84
tam 84
atl 84
tex 83
col 82
tor 82
nym 80
phi 80
min 78
cin 76
pit 76
bal 73
chw 68
det 67
kan 66
mia 65
sdg 65




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.