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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2017 Win Expectations


2017 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 85
atl 76
bal 83
bos 94
chc 97
chw 68
cin 71
cle 98
col 81
det 77
hou 94
kan 73
laa 81
lad 104
mia 80
mil 83
min 77
nym 79
nyy 103
oak 78
phi 70
pit 75
sdg 65
sea 82
sfo 81
stl 92
tam 87
tex 85
tor 82
wsh 93
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 104
nyy 103
cle 98
chc 97
bos 94
hou 94
wsh 93
stl 92
tam 87
tex 85
ari 85
bal 83
mil 83
sea 82
tor 82
sfo 81
col 81
laa 81
mia 80
nym 79
oak 78
det 77
min 77
atl 76
pit 75
kan 73
cin 71
phi 70
chw 68
sdg 65




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This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 7:16 am Pacific Time.