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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2019 Win Expectations


2019 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 81
atl 89
bal 63
bos 93
chc 94
chw 70
cin 86
cle 89
col 74
det 58
hou 105
kan 67
laa 83
lad 110
mia 68
mil 89
min 89
nym 90
nyy 94
oak 90
phi 82
pit 70
sdg 77
sea 89
sfo 80
stl 98
tam 93
tex 72
tor 74
wsh 94
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 110
hou 105
stl 98
wsh 94
nyy 94
chc 94
tam 93
bos 93
oak 90
nym 90
mil 89
cle 89
atl 89
min 89
sea 89
cin 86
laa 83
phi 82
ari 81
sfo 80
sdg 77
tor 74
col 74
tex 72
chw 70
pit 70
mia 68
kan 67
bal 63
det 58




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 7:36 am Pacific Time.