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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2018 Win Expectations


2018 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Friday, 20 April 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 84
atl 83
bal 80
bos 103
chc 94
chw 81
cin 67
cle 100
col 73
det 74
hou 102
kan 70
laa 94
lad 100
mia 54
mil 83
min 82
nym 90
nyy 103
oak 89
phi 88
pit 74
sdg 72
sea 78
sfo 90
stl 93
tam 82
tex 81
tor 95
wsh 98
By Wins
Team Wins
bos 103
nyy 103
hou 102
cle 100
lad 100
wsh 98
tor 95
laa 94
chc 94
stl 93
sfo 90
nym 90
oak 89
phi 88
ari 84
mil 83
atl 83
min 82
tam 82
chw 81
tex 81
bal 80
sea 78
pit 74
det 74
col 73
sdg 72
kan 70
cin 67
mia 54




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This page was last modified on Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.