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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2019 Win Expectations


2019 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Monday, 22 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 77
atl 88
bal 61
bos 92
chc 99
chw 73
cin 84
cle 77
col 77
det 76
hou 106
kan 73
laa 84
lad 128
mia 64
mil 90
min 91
nym 92
nyy 100
oak 84
phi 95
pit 82
sdg 85
sea 89
sfo 84
stl 115
tam 96
tex 74
tor 76
wsh 94
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 128
stl 115
hou 106
nyy 100
chc 99
tam 96
phi 95
wsh 94
bos 92
nym 92
min 91
mil 90
sea 89
atl 88
sdg 85
oak 84
cin 84
sfo 84
laa 84
pit 82
ari 77
cle 77
col 77
det 76
tor 76
tex 74
kan 73
chw 73
mia 64
bal 61




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 April 2019, at 6:52 am Pacific Time.