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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2017 Win Expectations


2017 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Wednesday, 28 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 84
atl 79
bal 80
bos 93
chc 94
chw 73
cin 69
cle 94
col 79
det 86
hou 95
kan 72
laa 80
lad 108
mia 82
mil 78
min 72
nym 83
nyy 101
oak 81
phi 69
pit 73
sdg 65
sea 82
sfo 82
stl 93
tam 87
tex 85
tor 88
wsh 97
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 108
nyy 101
wsh 97
hou 95
cle 94
chc 94
bos 93
stl 93
tor 88
tam 87
det 86
tex 85
ari 84
nym 83
sfo 82
sea 82
mia 82
oak 81
bal 80
laa 80
col 79
atl 79
mil 78
chw 73
pit 73
kan 72
min 72
phi 69
cin 69
sdg 65




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 29 June 2017, at 7:04 am Pacific Time.