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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2020 Win Expectations


2020 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Tuesday, 30 June 2020.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 81
atl 81
bal 81
bos 81
chc 81
chw 81
cin 81
cle 81
col 81
det 81
hou 81
kan 81
laa 81
lad 81
mia 81
mil 81
min 81
nym 81
nyy 81
oak 81
phi 81
pit 81
sdg 81
sea 81
sfo 81
stl 81
tam 81
tex 81
tor 81
wsh 81
By Wins
Team Wins
phi 81
pit 81
oak 81
nyy 81
min 81
nym 81
sdg 81
sea 81
tor 81
wsh 81
tex 81
tam 81
sfo 81
stl 81
mil 81
mia 81
chw 81
cin 81
chc 81
bos 81
atl 81
bal 81
cle 81
col 81
laa 81
lad 81
kan 81
hou 81
det 81
ari 81




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 1 July 2020, at 7:52 am Pacific Time.