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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2017 Win Expectations


2017 Team Win Expectations From Player Stats

Through games of Thursday, 17 August 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


These tables are simple in principle: every player's career-to-date stats are pro-rated to his actual playing time for his team this season, then those pro-rated stats are added up to get team stat lines for pitching and for batting; from those, probable runs scored and allowed are calculated, and from those in turn, probable games won are calculated—and that's what's shown here.

Right now, these are only roughly indicative, not accurate. That is because the method just described has a failing: the play time a man gets is a fraction of his team's total—but that team total will vary depending on how well the men are doing. (A good-hitting team will have a higher on-base percentage, and so will send more men to the plate and have a higher PA total; and vice-versa, and so for pitching, too.) So, while we can use actual data to predict actual results, we cannot use projected raw numbers—we need to use projected rates (like OB%), from them reckon expected team total plate appearances, then use each man's percentage of that expected team-total PA number to get pro-rated actual stats.

If that sounds complicated, that's because it is. We hope to get that analysis running soon, but in the meanwhile these numbers will still give you a decent idea of the relative strengths of the teams "on paper", as one says.

(Colors denote leagues.)

By Team
Team Wins
ari 83
atl 74
bal 83
bos 96
chc 96
chw 68
cin 70
cle 95
col 82
det 85
hou 95
kan 75
laa 82
lad 108
mia 82
mil 80
min 73
nym 81
nyy 100
oak 79
phi 70
pit 76
sdg 67
sea 82
sfo 82
stl 95
tam 88
tex 88
tor 83
wsh 94
By Wins
Team Wins
lad 108
nyy 100
chc 96
bos 96
hou 95
stl 95
cle 95
wsh 94
tam 88
tex 88
det 85
ari 83
bal 83
tor 83
sea 82
sfo 82
mia 82
laa 82
col 82
nym 81
mil 80
oak 79
pit 76
kan 75
atl 74
min 73
phi 70
cin 70
chw 68
sdg 67




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This page was last modified on Friday, 18 August 2017, at 7:11 am Pacific Time.