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2019 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 22 April 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Tampa Bay.792128
Houston.744120
LA Dodgers.678110
Minnesota.620100
Seattle.616100
NY Yankees.604 98
St. Louis.555 90
Chicago Cubs.554 90
Atlanta.554 90
Arizona.550 89
Pittsburgh.541 88
Washington.509 83
Philadelphia.509 82
Toronto.494 80
Oakland.482 78
Milwaukee.480 78
Detroit.478 77
Chicago Sox.477 77
NY Mets.468 76
San Diego.436 71
Texas.433 70
Cleveland.430 70
Cincinnati.428 69
Colorado.426 69
Kansas City.418 68
San Francisco.410 66
LA Angels.387 63
Boston.329 53
Baltimore.262 42
Miami.257 42


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .554 St. Louis       .555 LA Dodgers      .678 Tampa Bay       .792 Minnesota       .620 Houston         .744
Washington      .509 * Chicago Cubs  .554 * Arizona       .550 * NY Yankees    .604 Detroit         .478 * Seattle       .616
Philadelphia    .509 Pittsburgh      .541 San Diego       .436 Toronto         .494 Chicago Sox     .477 Oakland         .482
NY Mets         .468 Milwaukee       .480 Colorado        .426 Boston          .329 Cleveland       .430 Texas           .433
Miami           .257 Cincinnati      .428 San Francisco   .410 Baltimore       .262 Kansas City     .418 LA Angels       .387

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Philadelphia    .545 Pittsburgh      .600 LA Dodgers      .625 Tampa Bay       .652 Minnesota       .650 Seattle         .640
* NY Mets       .545 * St. Louis     .591 San Diego       .522 NY Yankees      .545 * Cleveland     .571 * Houston       .591
Atlanta         .524 Milwaukee       .542 Arizona         .522 Toronto         .478 Detroit         .500 Texas           .571
Washington      .476 Chicago Cubs    .500 Colorado        .435 Boston          .409 Chicago Sox     .429 Oakland         .480
Miami           .273 Cincinnati      .381 San Francisco   .391 Baltimore       .333 Kansas City     .304 LA Angels       .391

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 23 125 123 113 114 12 12 0 13 -1 -4
Atlanta 21 118 114 106 103 11 11 0 12 -1 -5
Baltimore 24 99 105 161 161 8 7 1 6 2 12
Boston 22 87 93 123 131 9 7 2 7 2 13
Chicago Cubs 20 107 110 96 93 10 12 -2 11 -1 -9
Chicago Sox 21 104 106 109 116 9 10 -1 10 -1 -8
Cincinnati 21 64 72 74 68 8 11 -3 9 -1 -7
Cleveland 21 73 83 84 84 12 10 2 9 3 23
Colorado 23 87 85 101 101 10 10 0 10 0 1
Detroit 20 66 61 69 74 10 8 2 10 0 4
Houston 22 120 103 73 87 13 13 0 16 -3 -24
Kansas City 23 107 102 126 125 7 9 -2 10 -3 -19
LA Angels 23 94 99 118 111 9 10 -1 9 0 0
LA Dodgers 24 139 136 97 107 15 15 0 16 -1 -9
Miami 22 64 60 105 107 6 5 1 6 0 2
Milwaukee 24 122 118 127 128 13 11 2 12 1 10
Minnesota 20 112 116 88 92 13 12 1 12 1 5
NY Mets 22 120 119 128 134 12 10 2 10 2 12
NY Yankees 22 111 113 90 85 12 14 -2 13 -1 -10
Oakland 25 109 116 113 117 12 12 0 12 0 0
Philadelphia 22 117 117 115 109 12 12 0 11 1 6
Pittsburgh 20 76 72 70 71 12 10 2 11 1 9
San Diego 23 80 77 91 94 12 9 3 10 2 14
Seattle 25 163 160 129 128 16 15 1 15 1 4
San Francisco 23 66 67 79 80 9 10 -1 9 0 -3
St. Louis 22 125 128 112 99 13 14 -1 12 1 6
Tampa Bay 23 126 113 69 68 15 17 -2 18 -3 -22
Texas 21 105 117 120 113 12 11 1 9 3 23
Toronto 23 83 95 84 88 11 12 -1 11 0 -3
Washington 21 107 114 105 106 10 11 -1 11 -1 -6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP5.3 runs5.4%-0.6 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP4.2 runs4.2%-0.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.23 wins---0.1 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.23 wins---0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 7.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 23 April 2019, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.