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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Tuesday, 26 July 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.677110
Washington.642104
Boston.616100
St. Louis.616100
LA Dodgers.602 97
Cleveland.594 96
Toronto.577 94
San Francisco.560 91
Houston.545 88
Miami.542 88
NY Mets.534 87
Baltimore.528 86
Seattle.527 85
Detroit.520 84
Colorado.498 81
Texas.476 77
NY Yankees.476 77
Pittsburgh.474 77
Tampa Bay.467 76
Chicago Sox.464 75
LA Angels.447 72
Arizona.446 72
Kansas City.445 72
Minnesota.437 71
Milwaukee.423 69
San Diego.411 67
Oakland.408 66
Philadelphia.395 64
Atlanta.361 58
Cincinnati.316 51


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .642 Chicago Cubs    .677 LA Dodgers      .602 Boston          .616 Cleveland       .594 Houston         .545
Miami           .542 * St. Louis     .616 * San Francisco .560 * Toronto       .577 Detroit         .520 Seattle         .527
NY Mets         .534 Pittsburgh      .474 Colorado        .498 * Baltimore     .528 Chicago Sox     .464 Texas           .476
Philadelphia    .395 Milwaukee       .423 Arizona         .446 NY Yankees      .476 Kansas City     .445 LA Angels       .447
Atlanta         .361 Cincinnati      .316 San Diego       .411 Tampa Bay       .467 Minnesota       .437 Oakland         .408

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .580 Chicago Cubs    .596 San Francisco   .590 Baltimore       .586 Cleveland       .582 Texas           .574
* Miami         .540 St. Louis       .530 * LA Dodgers    .564 * Toronto       .564 Detroit         .525 * Houston       .540
NY Mets         .535 Pittsburgh      .515 Colorado        .480 Boston          .561 Chicago Sox     .500 Seattle         .515
Philadelphia    .451 Milwaukee       .439 San Diego       .426 NY Yankees      .520 Kansas City     .485 Oakland         .455
Atlanta         .340 Cincinnati      .390 Arizona         .410 Tampa Bay       .384 Minnesota       .374 LA Angels       .450

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona100 473 440 527 526 41 42 -1 45 -4 -6
Atlanta100 356 337 471 473 34 34 0 36 -2 -3
Baltimore 99 477 477 451 439 58 53 5 52 6 9
Boston 98 566 557 448 474 55 56 -1 60 -5 -9
Chicago Cubs 99 499 498 349 352 59 65 -6 67 -8 -13
Chicago Sox100 418 406 449 427 50 48 2 46 4 6
Cincinnati100 402 435 583 579 39 37 2 32 7 12
Cleveland 98 467 485 387 398 57 58 -1 58 -1 -2
Colorado100 499 514 501 517 48 50 -2 50 -2 -3
Detroit101 478 471 459 474 53 50 3 53 0 1
Houston100 467 456 427 401 54 56 -2 54 0 -1
Kansas City 99 404 388 451 440 48 44 4 44 4 7
LA Angels100 439 468 488 463 45 50 -5 45 0 1
LA Dodgers101 428 438 349 373 57 58 -1 61 -4 -6
Miami100 447 414 411 408 54 51 3 54 0 -1
Milwaukee 98 416 398 485 456 43 43 0 41 2 2
Minnesota 99 445 435 505 518 37 41 -4 43 -6 -10
NY Mets 99 409 367 382 348 53 52 1 53 0 0
NY Yankees100 411 411 431 432 52 48 4 48 4 7
Oakland101 406 416 488 487 46 43 3 41 5 8
Philadelphia102 371 361 458 459 46 39 7 40 6 9
Pittsburgh 99 463 455 488 461 51 49 2 47 4 6
San Diego101 421 445 503 497 43 45 -2 42 1 2
Seattle 99 470 474 445 425 51 55 -4 52 -1 -2
San Francisco100 458 461 406 405 59 56 3 56 3 5
St. Louis100 501 508 397 414 53 60 -7 62 -9 -14
Tampa Bay 99 416 392 444 451 38 43 -5 46 -8 -14
Texas101 462 483 485 481 58 51 7 48 10 16
Toronto101 487 497 417 417 57 59 -2 58 -1 -3
Washington100 470 467 353 359 58 62 -4 64 -6 -10


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.7 runs3.4%2.4 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP12.3 runs2.9%2.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.1 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.77 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 15.8 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 27 July 2016, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.