Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


Quick page jumps:


Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 4 October 2015.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Toronto.631102
Houston.597 97
LA Dodgers.593 96
Chicago Cubs.589 95
Cleveland.571 93
Pittsburgh.561 91
Washington.557 90
San Francisco.550 89
NY Mets.550 89
St. Louis.545 88
NY Yankees.537 87
Kansas City.532 86
Tampa Bay.520 84
Arizona.507 82
Oakland.496 80
Texas.495 80
Boston.492 80
Baltimore.488 79
Seattle.476 77
Miami.472 77
LA Angels.469 76
Detroit.463 75
Cincinnati.453 73
Minnesota.445 72
San Diego.437 71
Chicago Sox.429 69
Milwaukee.424 69
Colorado.414 67
Atlanta.383 62
Philadelphia.351 57


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .557 Chicago Cubs    .589 LA Dodgers      .593 Toronto         .631 Cleveland       .571 Houston         .597
NY Mets         .550 * Pittsburgh    .561 * San Francisco .550 * NY Yankees    .537 * Kansas City   .532 Oakland         .496
Miami           .472 St. Louis       .545 Arizona         .507 Tampa Bay       .520 Detroit         .463 Texas           .495
Atlanta         .383 Cincinnati      .453 San Diego       .437 Boston          .492 Minnesota       .445 Seattle         .476
Philadelphia    .351 Milwaukee       .424 Colorado        .414 Baltimore       .488 Chicago Sox     .429 LA Angels       .469

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
NY Mets         .556 St. Louis       .617 LA Dodgers      .568 Toronto         .574 Kansas City     .586 Texas           .543
Washington      .512 * Pittsburgh    .605 * San Francisco .519 * NY Yankees    .537 Minnesota       .512 * Houston       .531
Miami           .438 Chicago Cubs    .599 Arizona         .488 Baltimore       .500 Cleveland       .503 LA Angels       .525
Atlanta         .414 Milwaukee       .420 San Diego       .457 Tampa Bay       .494 Chicago Sox     .469 Seattle         .469
Philadelphia    .389 Cincinnati      .395 Colorado        .420 Boston          .481 Detroit         .460 Oakland         .420

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 750 720 740 713 79 82 -3 82 -3 -3
Atlanta162 599 573 758 760 67 60 7 62 5 5
Baltimore162 682 713 699 693 81 83 -2 79 2 2
Boston162 742 748 754 753 78 80 -2 80 -2 -2
Chicago Cubs162 711 689 595 608 97 90 7 95 2 2
Chicago Sox162 618 622 713 701 76 72 4 69 7 7
Cincinnati162 692 640 761 754 64 68 -4 73 -9 -9
Cleveland161 691 669 599 640 81 84 -3 92-11 -11
Colorado162 729 737 867 844 68 71 -3 67 1 1
Detroit161 720 689 775 803 74 69 5 75 -1 -1
Houston162 742 729 611 618 86 93 -7 97-11 -11
Kansas City162 711 724 667 641 95 90 5 86 9 9
LA Angels162 635 661 676 675 85 79 6 76 9 9
LA Dodgers162 701 667 582 595 92 90 2 96 -4 -4
Miami162 631 613 667 678 71 73 -2 77 -6 -6
Milwaukee162 638 655 743 737 68 72 -4 69 -1 -1
Minnesota162 646 696 721 700 83 80 3 72 11 11
NY Mets162 674 683 610 613 90 89 1 89 1 1
NY Yankees162 762 764 708 698 87 88 -1 87 0 0
Oakland162 681 694 687 729 68 77 -9 80-12 -12
Philadelphia162 627 626 847 809 63 61 2 57 6 6
Pittsburgh162 708 697 627 596 98 93 5 91 7 7
San Diego162 627 650 712 731 74 72 2 71 3 3
Seattle162 683 656 717 726 76 73 3 77 -1 -1
San Francisco162 710 696 642 627 84 89 -5 89 -5 -5
St. Louis162 675 647 617 525100 97 3 88 12 12
Tampa Bay162 668 644 642 642 80 81 -1 84 -4 -4
Texas162 744 751 751 733 88 83 5 80 8 8
Toronto162 832 891 639 670 93102 -9102 -9 -9
Washington162 694 703 619 635 83 89 -6 90 -7 -7


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP21 runs3.1%2.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP19 runs2.9%3.3 runs
Games Won from R/OR4.03 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP5.63 wins----0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 19.7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of "Performance-Enhancing Drugs" in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2016 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Monday, 5 October 2015, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.