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2018 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 30 September 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Houston.660107
LA Dodgers.639103
Boston.619100
NY Yankees.607 98
Tampa Bay.600 97
Cleveland.597 97
Oakland.587 95
Milwaukee.581 94
Atlanta.576 93
Chicago Cubs.570 92
Washington.566 92
Colorado.534 87
St. Louis.527 85
Arizona.522 85
LA Angels.505 82
Seattle.504 82
Philadelphia.483 78
Pittsburgh.477 77
NY Mets.471 76
Minnesota.438 71
San Francisco.432 70
Cincinnati.431 70
Texas.415 67
Toronto.410 66
San Diego.399 65
Chicago Sox.397 64
Detroit.392 64
Miami.379 61
Kansas City.376 61
Baltimore.323 52


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .576 Milwaukee       .581 LA Dodgers      .639 Boston          .619 Cleveland       .597 Houston         .660
* Washington    .566 * Chicago Cubs  .570 Colorado        .534 * NY Yankees    .607 Minnesota       .438 Oakland         .587
Philadelphia    .483 St. Louis       .527 Arizona         .522 * Tampa Bay     .600 Chicago Sox     .397 LA Angels       .505
NY Mets         .471 Pittsburgh      .477 San Francisco   .432 Toronto         .410 Detroit         .392 Seattle         .504
Miami           .379 Cincinnati      .431 San Diego       .399 Baltimore       .323 Kansas City     .376 Texas           .415

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .556 Chicago Cubs    .586 Colorado        .562 Boston          .667 Cleveland       .562 Houston         .636
Washington      .506 * Milwaukee     .586 * LA Dodgers    .562 * NY Yankees    .617 Minnesota       .481 * Oakland       .599
Philadelphia    .494 St. Louis       .543 Arizona         .506 Tampa Bay       .556 Detroit         .395 Seattle         .549
NY Mets         .475 Pittsburgh      .509 San Francisco   .451 Toronto         .451 Chicago Sox     .383 LA Angels       .494
Miami           .391 Cincinnati      .414 San Diego       .407 Baltimore       .290 Kansas City     .358 Texas           .414

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 682 693 652 644 82 86 -4 85 -3 -3
Atlanta162 753 759 647 657 90 92 -2 93 -3 -3
Baltimore162 626 622 896 892 47 54 -7 52 -5 -5
Boston162 852 876 671 647108104 4100 8 8
Chicago Cubs162 770 760 669 642 95 94 1 92 3 3
Chicago Sox162 666 656 819 848 62 61 1 64 -2 -2
Cincinnati162 722 696 829 819 67 69 -2 70 -3 -3
Cleveland162 818 818 673 648 91 99 -8 97 -6 -6
Colorado162 765 778 714 740 91 85 6 87 4 4
Detroit162 620 630 770 796 64 63 1 64 0 0
Houston162 743 797 538 534103111 -8107 -4 -4
Kansas City162 648 638 831 833 58 61 -3 61 -3 -3
LA Angels162 713 721 706 722 80 81 -1 82 -2 -2
LA Dodgers162 812 799 614 608 91102-11103-12 -12
Miami161 593 589 756 809 63 57 6 61 2 2
Milwaukee162 762 751 648 658 95 91 4 94 1 1
Minnesota162 693 738 784 775 78 77 1 71 7 7
NY Mets162 664 676 703 707 77 77 0 76 1 1
NY Yankees162 825 851 665 669100 99 1 98 2 2
Oakland162 771 813 648 674 97 95 2 95 2 2
Philadelphia162 681 677 704 728 80 75 5 78 2 2
Pittsburgh161 681 692 713 693 82 80 2 77 5 6
San Diego162 612 617 749 767 66 64 2 65 1 1
Seattle162 691 677 685 711 89 77 12 82 7 7
San Francisco162 609 603 698 699 73 70 3 70 3 3
St. Louis162 726 759 688 691 88 88 0 85 3 3
Tampa Bay162 735 716 601 646 90 89 1 97 -7 -7
Texas162 707 737 838 848 67 70 -3 67 0 0
Toronto162 696 709 833 832 73 69 4 66 7 7
Washington162 783 771 686 682 82 90 -8 92-10 -10


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP16.2 runs2.2%-6.7 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.8 runs2.2%-6.4 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.77 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.93 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20.1 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 1 October 2018, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.