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2017 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Wednesday, 21 June 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
NY Yankees.682110
Houston.660107
LA Dodgers.660107
Arizona.631102
Washington.620100
Cleveland.616100
Tampa Bay.566 92
Colorado.548 89
Chicago Cubs.523 85
Boston.516 84
Miami.509 82
Milwaukee.497 81
Cincinnati.497 81
St. Louis.495 80
Chicago Sox.487 79
LA Angels.484 78
Seattle.484 78
Atlanta.472 76
Texas.470 76
Toronto.464 75
Minnesota.461 75
Detroit.460 75
Pittsburgh.443 72
Kansas City.443 72
Oakland.433 70
NY Mets.410 66
San Diego.387 63
Baltimore.380 62
San Francisco.363 59
Philadelphia.343 56


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Miami           .509 Chicago Cubs    .523 LA Dodgers      .660 NY Yankees      .682 Cleveland       .616 Houston         .660
Atlanta         .472 Milwaukee       .497 * Arizona       .631 * Tampa Bay     .566 Chicago Sox     .487 LA Angels       .484
NY Mets         .410 Cincinnati      .497 * Colorado      .548 Boston          .516 Minnesota       .461 Seattle         .484
Philadelphia    .343 St. Louis       .495 San Diego       .387 Toronto         .464 Detroit         .460 Texas           .470
                .000 Pittsburgh      .443 San Francisco   .363 Baltimore       .380 Kansas City     .443 Oakland         .433

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .465 Milwaukee       .527 LA Dodgers      .644 NY Yankees      .565 Cleveland       .543 Houston         .671
Miami           .457 * Chicago Cubs  .507 * Colorado      .635 * Boston        .556 * Minnesota     .522 Seattle         .500
NY Mets         .437 St. Louis       .471 Arizona         .625 Tampa Bay       .520 Kansas City     .493 LA Angels       .493
Philadelphia    .314 Pittsburgh      .458 San Diego       .397 Toronto         .493 Detroit         .451 Texas           .493
                .000 Cincinnati      .423 San Francisco   .365 Baltimore       .493 Chicago Sox     .443 Oakland         .431

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 72 375 378 288 279 45 46 -1 45 0 -1
Atlanta 71 326 332 345 363 33 32 1 33 0 -1
Baltimore 71 319 320 406 380 35 30 5 27 8 18
Boston 72 325 336 315 306 40 39 1 37 3 6
Chicago Cubs 71 329 332 314 316 36 37 -1 37 -1 -3
Chicago Sox 70 310 323 318 323 31 35 -4 34 -3 -7
Cincinnati 71 372 349 374 379 30 33 -3 35 -5 -13
Cleveland 70 337 337 267 284 38 41 -3 43 -5 -12
Colorado 74 362 392 329 327 47 43 4 41 6 14
Detroit 71 335 341 363 357 32 34 -2 33 -1 -2
Houston 73 396 396 287 279 49 48 1 48 1 2
Kansas City 71 282 282 316 316 35 32 3 31 4 8
LA Angels 75 314 321 324 323 37 37 0 36 1 2
LA Dodgers 73 363 378 263 258 47 49 -2 48 -1 -3
Miami 70 331 331 325 341 32 34 -2 36 -4 -8
Milwaukee 74 360 355 362 348 39 38 1 37 2 4
Minnesota 69 334 325 361 365 36 31 5 32 4 10
NY Mets 71 338 339 405 389 31 31 0 29 2 5
NY Yankees 69 403 394 279 287 39 45 -6 47 -8 -18
Oakland 72 306 304 350 386 31 28 3 31 0 0
Philadelphia 70 271 270 372 368 22 25 -3 24 -2 -5
Pittsburgh 72 315 307 353 339 33 33 0 32 1 2
San Diego 73 279 261 350 378 29 24 5 28 1 1
Seattle 74 345 356 356 361 37 36 1 36 1 3
San Francisco 74 278 274 366 364 27 27 0 27 0 0
St. Louis 70 309 307 312 315 33 34 -1 35 -2 -4
Tampa Bay 75 381 360 334 341 39 39 0 42 -3 -8
Texas 71 318 348 338 333 35 37 -2 33 2 4
Toronto 71 304 306 327 325 35 33 2 33 2 5
Washington 72 402 398 316 322 43 43 0 45 -2 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP8.2 runs2.4%-1.1 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP9.4 runs2.7%-1.2 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.07 wins---0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.5 wins---0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 13.7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 22 June 2017, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.