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2017 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 21 May 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
NY Yankees.670109
Arizona.647105
LA Dodgers.644104
Tampa Bay.610 99
Houston.587 95
Washington.583 94
Cleveland.580 94
Cincinnati.545 88
St. Louis.534 87
Chicago Sox.529 86
Colorado.527 85
Boston.524 85
Chicago Cubs.522 85
Milwaukee.511 83
LA Angels.497 81
Texas.497 81
Minnesota.492 80
Baltimore.488 79
Oakland.481 78
Atlanta.477 77
Seattle.448 73
Miami.435 70
Detroit.433 70
Philadelphia.418 68
Toronto.412 67
Kansas City.395 64
NY Mets.393 64
Pittsburgh.390 63
San Francisco.353 57
San Diego.349 57


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .477 Cincinnati      .545 Arizona         .647 NY Yankees      .670 Cleveland       .580 Houston         .587
Miami           .435 * St. Louis     .534 * LA Dodgers    .644 * Tampa Bay     .610 Chicago Sox     .529 LA Angels       .497
Philadelphia    .418 Chicago Cubs    .522 Colorado        .527 Boston          .524 Minnesota       .492 Texas           .497
NY Mets         .393 Milwaukee       .511 San Francisco   .353 Baltimore       .488 Detroit         .433 Oakland         .481
                .000 Pittsburgh      .390 San Diego       .349 Toronto         .412 Kansas City     .395 Seattle         .448

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .439 Milwaukee       .568 Colorado        .622 NY Yankees      .610 Minnesota       .550 Houston         .659
NY Mets         .429 * St. Louis     .537 * Arizona       .578 * Baltimore     .595 * Cleveland     .548 Texas           .533
Philadelphia    .366 Chicago Cubs    .524 LA Dodgers      .578 Boston          .512 Detroit         .500 LA Angels       .500
Miami           .349 Cincinnati      .465 San Francisco   .422 Tampa Bay       .500 Chicago Sox     .476 Oakland         .455
                .000 Pittsburgh      .455 San Diego       .348 Toronto         .422 Kansas City     .419 Seattle         .444

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 45 242 226 180 179 26 27 -1 29 -3 -11
Atlanta 41 187 188 196 211 18 18 0 20 -2 -6
Baltimore 42 201 197 206 185 25 22 3 20 5 17
Boston 43 193 196 184 188 22 22 0 23 -1 -2
Chicago Cubs 42 208 213 199 197 22 23 -1 22 0 0
Chicago Sox 42 176 193 166 171 20 23 -3 22 -2 -9
Cincinnati 43 232 218 212 221 20 21 -1 23 -3 -13
Cleveland 42 183 184 156 168 23 23 0 24 -1 -5
Colorado 45 209 225 198 208 28 24 4 24 4 16
Detroit 42 194 206 222 215 21 20 1 18 3 11
Houston 44 213 220 179 166 29 28 1 26 3 12
Kansas City 43 154 145 190 190 18 16 2 17 1 4
LA Angels 46 189 192 190 199 23 22 1 23 0 0
LA Dodgers 45 218 228 163 164 26 29 -3 29 -3 -10
Miami 43 186 178 212 222 15 17 -2 19 -4 -13
Milwaukee 44 228 233 223 206 25 25 0 22 3 9
Minnesota 40 180 177 183 183 22 19 3 20 2 9
NY Mets 42 191 210 237 237 18 19 -1 16 2 5
NY Yankees 41 237 232 168 177 25 26 -1 27 -2 -10
Oakland 44 184 176 191 219 20 17 3 21 -1 -4
Philadelphia 41 178 183 210 202 15 19 -4 17 -2 -9
Pittsburgh 44 166 167 207 199 20 18 2 17 3 11
San Diego 46 163 158 221 243 16 14 2 16 0 -1
Seattle 45 200 206 222 226 20 21 -1 20 0 -1
San Francisco 45 157 154 211 217 19 15 4 16 3 11
St. Louis 41 195 186 182 169 22 22 0 22 0 0
Tampa Bay 46 227 216 182 195 23 25 -2 28 -5 -18
Texas 45 193 215 194 190 24 25 -1 22 2 5
Toronto 45 177 186 211 202 19 21 -2 19 0 1
Washington 43 241 246 204 205 26 25 1 25 1 4


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP8.1 runs4%-1.7 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP8.7 runs4.4%-1.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.67 wins---0.13 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.03 wins---0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 10.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 22 May 2017, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.