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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Thursday, 26 May 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.784127
Boston.675109
Washington.641104
St. Louis.629102
Seattle.620100
LA Dodgers.596 96
NY Mets.583 95
Chicago Sox.566 92
Baltimore.565 91
Cleveland.559 90
Miami.553 90
Tampa Bay.547 89
San Francisco.541 88
Pittsburgh.540 87
Toronto.521 84
Detroit.507 82
Colorado.493 80
Arizona.486 79
Kansas City.474 77
Texas.473 77
NY Yankees.450 73
Houston.446 72
Philadelphia.418 68
LA Angels.402 65
Milwaukee.382 62
Oakland.361 59
San Diego.346 56
Minnesota.329 53
Atlanta.309 50
Cincinnati.217 35


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .641 Chicago Cubs    .784 LA Dodgers      .596 Boston          .675 Chicago Sox     .566 Seattle         .620
* NY Mets       .583 * St. Louis     .629 San Francisco   .541 * Baltimore     .565 * Cleveland     .559 Texas           .473
Miami           .553 Pittsburgh      .540 Colorado        .493 Tampa Bay       .547 Detroit         .507 Houston         .446
Philadelphia    .418 Milwaukee       .382 Arizona         .486 Toronto         .521 Kansas City     .474 LA Angels       .402
Atlanta         .309 Cincinnati      .217 San Diego       .346 NY Yankees      .450 Minnesota       .329 Oakland         .361

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .604 Chicago Cubs    .689 San Francisco   .612 Boston          .617 Chicago Sox     .563 Seattle         .609
* NY Mets       .587 * Pittsburgh    .587 LA Dodgers      .521 * Baltimore     .578 Cleveland       .556 * Texas         .574
Philadelphia    .553 St. Louis       .500 Colorado        .478 Toronto         .490 Kansas City     .522 LA Angels       .447
Miami           .532 Milwaukee       .447 Arizona         .429 NY Yankees      .478 Detroit         .500 Oakland         .417
Atlanta         .261 Cincinnati      .319 San Diego       .396 Tampa Bay       .467 Minnesota       .261 Houston         .417

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 49 242 222 249 243 21 22 -1 24 -3 -10
Atlanta 46 148 142 218 219 12 14 -2 14 -2 -8
Baltimore 45 206 198 181 178 26 25 1 25 1 3
Boston 47 278 276 195 204 29 30 -1 32 -3 -9
Chicago Cubs 45 244 256 136 137 31 35 -4 35 -4 -15
Chicago Sox 48 203 196 178 171 27 27 0 27 0 -1
Cincinnati 47 156 179 279 275 15 14 1 10 5 17
Cleveland 45 199 214 177 180 25 26 -1 25 0 0
Colorado 46 220 225 223 237 22 22 0 23 -1 -3
Detroit 46 216 211 213 216 23 22 1 23 0 -1
Houston 48 202 193 225 222 20 21 -1 21 -1 -4
Kansas City 46 184 174 194 180 24 22 2 22 2 8
LA Angels 47 180 192 219 214 21 21 0 19 2 7
LA Dodgers 48 195 206 161 182 25 27 -2 29 -4 -12
Miami 47 218 191 196 193 25 23 2 26 -1 -4
Milwaukee 47 198 195 251 228 21 20 1 18 3 10
Minnesota 46 177 167 250 248 12 15 -3 15 -3 -11
NY Mets 46 195 180 165 149 27 27 0 27 0 0
NY Yankees 46 180 179 199 198 22 21 1 21 1 4
Oakland 48 183 186 242 244 20 18 2 17 3 9
Philadelphia 47 156 155 184 186 26 19 7 20 6 22
Pittsburgh 46 249 234 230 209 27 25 2 25 2 8
San Diego 48 162 167 221 206 19 19 0 17 2 8
Seattle 46 215 220 169 166 28 29 -1 29 -1 -1
San Francisco 49 218 211 201 197 30 26 4 26 4 11
St. Louis 48 258 259 199 219 24 28 -4 30 -6 -21
Tampa Bay 45 201 188 183 184 21 23 -2 25 -4 -13
Texas 47 198 218 209 203 27 25 2 22 5 16
Toronto 49 199 197 191 195 24 25 -1 26 -2 -5
Washington 48 210 201 158 149 29 31 -2 31 -2 -6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP9.4 runs4.7%1.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP7.5 runs3.8%2.1 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.7 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.43 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 10.6 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 27 May 2016, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.