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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Saturday, 27 August 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.695113
Washington.637103
Boston.621101
St. Louis.595 96
LA Dodgers.579 94
Toronto.576 93
Cleveland.576 93
San Francisco.556 90
Detroit.539 87
Miami.527 85
Houston.523 85
Seattle.508 82
NY Mets.508 82
Colorado.507 82
NY Yankees.501 81
Baltimore.497 80
Tampa Bay.493 80
Texas.487 79
Kansas City.473 77
Pittsburgh.472 76
Chicago Sox.462 75
Milwaukee.440 71
Minnesota.436 71
Arizona.426 69
Oakland.418 68
LA Angels.413 67
San Diego.403 65
Atlanta.393 64
Philadelphia.383 62
Cincinnati.375 61


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .637 Chicago Cubs    .695 LA Dodgers      .579 Boston          .621 Cleveland       .576 Houston         .523
Miami           .527 * St. Louis     .595 * San Francisco .556 * Toronto       .576 * Detroit       .539 Seattle         .508
NY Mets         .508 Pittsburgh      .472 Colorado        .507 NY Yankees      .501 Kansas City     .473 Texas           .487
Atlanta         .393 Milwaukee       .440 Arizona         .426 Baltimore       .497 Chicago Sox     .462 Oakland         .418
Philadelphia    .383 Cincinnati      .375 San Diego       .403 Tampa Bay       .493 Minnesota       .436 LA Angels       .413

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .581 Chicago Cubs    .641 LA Dodgers      .558 Toronto         .566 Cleveland       .570 Texas           .585
Miami           .519 * St. Louis     .531 * San Francisco .543 * Boston        .558 * Detroit       .535 Houston         .527
NY Mets         .512 Pittsburgh      .520 Colorado        .473 Baltimore       .543 Kansas City     .519 Seattle         .527
Philadelphia    .457 Milwaukee       .434 San Diego       .419 NY Yankees      .523 Chicago Sox     .484 Oakland         .434
Atlanta         .369 Cincinnati      .430 Arizona         .415 Tampa Bay       .422 Minnesota       .380 LA Angels       .426

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona130 623 589 722 733 54 52 2 55 -1 -2
Atlanta130 499 481 619 636 48 48 0 51 -3 -4
Baltimore129 609 610 613 604 70 65 5 64 6 8
Boston129 705 700 553 579 72 76 -4 80 -8 -11
Chicago Cubs128 654 655 441 437 82 88 -6 89 -7 -9
Chicago Sox128 537 522 580 556 62 60 2 59 3 3
Cincinnati128 541 581 696 683 55 54 1 48 7 9
Cleveland128 611 631 525 542 73 73 0 74 -1 -1
Colorado129 664 681 655 671 61 65 -4 65 -4 -5
Detroit129 612 602 566 579 69 67 2 70 -1 0
Houston129 595 589 568 541 68 70 -2 67 1 0
Kansas City129 526 510 555 534 67 62 5 61 6 7
LA Angels129 538 571 640 611 55 60 -5 53 2 2
LA Dodgers129 572 584 488 516 72 72 0 75 -3 -4
Miami129 574 540 544 527 67 66 1 68 -1 -1
Milwaukee129 567 532 639 614 56 56 0 57 -1 -1
Minnesota129 602 589 684 709 49 53 -4 56 -7 -9
NY Mets129 542 508 533 502 66 65 1 66 0 1
NY Yankees128 553 552 552 556 67 63 4 64 3 4
Oakland129 510 513 601 604 56 55 1 54 2 2
Philadelphia129 496 484 627 626 59 49 10 49 10 12
Pittsburgh127 572 578 605 567 66 65 1 60 6 8
San Diego129 519 558 631 625 54 58 -4 52 2 3
Seattle129 590 599 581 560 68 69 -1 65 3 3
San Francisco129 582 573 520 520 70 70 0 72 -2 -2
St. Louis128 643 637 531 555 68 72 -4 76 -8 -10
Tampa Bay128 552 531 560 553 54 61 -7 63 -9 -12
Texas130 587 605 602 601 76 65 11 63 13 16
Toronto129 616 631 529 532 73 75 -2 74 -1 -1
Washington129 630 628 478 491 75 79 -4 82 -7 -9


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP16.2 runs2.9%1.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.8 runs2.8%2.5 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.1 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP4.27 wins---0 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 18 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 28 August 2016, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.