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2018 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Saturday, 21 April 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Boston.791128
Houston.705114
Arizona.653106
Philadelphia.630102
Atlanta.614 99
Cleveland.607 98
NY Yankees.604 98
Chicago Cubs.588 95
LA Dodgers.569 92
Oakland.553 90
LA Angels.553 90
Washington.550 89
Milwaukee.548 89
St. Louis.534 86
Toronto.531 86
NY Mets.524 85
Detroit.524 85
Minnesota.523 85
Pittsburgh.517 84
San Francisco.486 79
Seattle.447 72
San Diego.432 70
Tampa Bay.424 69
Colorado.416 67
Texas.343 56
Chicago Sox.332 54
Kansas City.312 51
Cincinnati.272 44
Baltimore.265 43
Miami.233 38


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Philadelphia    .630 Chicago Cubs    .588 Arizona         .653 Boston          .791 Cleveland       .607 Houston         .705
* Atlanta       .614 Milwaukee       .548 * LA Dodgers    .569 * NY Yankees    .604 Detroit         .524 * Oakland       .553
Washington      .550 St. Louis       .534 San Francisco   .486 Toronto         .531 Minnesota       .523 LA Angels       .553
NY Mets         .524 Pittsburgh      .517 San Diego       .432 Tampa Bay       .424 Chicago Sox     .332 Seattle         .447
Miami           .233 Cincinnati      .272 Colorado        .416 Baltimore       .265 Kansas City     .312 Texas           .343

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
NY Mets         .700 St. Louis       .600 Arizona         .700 Boston          .850 Cleveland       .556 Houston         .682
* Philadelphia  .650 * Milwaukee     .591 Colorado        .545 * Toronto       .650 Minnesota       .533 * LA Angels     .667
Atlanta         .600 Pittsburgh      .571 LA Dodgers      .474 NY Yankees      .526 Detroit         .474 Seattle         .579
Washington      .476 Chicago Cubs    .500 San Francisco   .400 Tampa Bay       .350 Chicago Sox     .235 Oakland         .476
Miami           .250 Cincinnati      .150 San Diego       .364 Baltimore       .286 Kansas City     .211 Texas           .318

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 20 83 91 61 62 14 14 13 1 7
Atlanta 20 103 111 82 77 12 13 12 0 -2
Baltimore 21 75 69 121 114 6 6 6 0 3
Boston 20 113 123 62 56 17 17 16 1 10
Chicago Cubs 18 99 101 83 79 9 11 11 -2-14
Chicago Sox 17 72 63 101 113 4 4 6 -2-16
Cincinnati 20 66 59 105 108 3 4 5 -2-20
Cleveland 18 67 61 54 51 10 11 11 -1 -8
Colorado 22 82 86 97 106 12 9 9 3 21
Detroit 19 85 89 81 82 9 10 10 -1 -8
Houston 22 100 108 66 56 15 18 16 -1 -4
Kansas City 19 67 60 98 107 4 4 6 -2-17
LA Angels 21 109 111 98 93 14 12 12 2 18
LA Dodgers 19 85 90 74 77 9 11 11 -2-15
Miami 20 66 67 114 123 5 4 5 0 3
Milwaukee 22 99 90 90 87 13 11 12 1 7
Minnesota 15 66 62 63 62 8 7 8 0 1
NY Mets 20 85 96 81 80 14 12 10 4 28
NY Yankees 19 101 108 82 99 10 10 11 -1-13
Oakland 21 110 110 99 106 10 11 12 -2-13
Philadelphia 20 87 103 67 71 13 13 13 0 3
Pittsburgh 21 91 102 88 93 12 11 11 1 9
San Diego 22 82 82 94 106 8 8 10 -2-11
Seattle 19 81 83 90 92 11 9 9 2 22
San Francisco 20 70 62 72 73 8 8 10 -2-14
St. Louis 20 92 92 86 72 12 12 11 1 11
Tampa Bay 20 79 80 92 102 7 8 8 -1-12
Texas 22 83 77 114 115 7 7 8 -1 -4
Toronto 20 99 115 93 83 13 13 11 2 19
Washington 21 94 90 85 96 10 10 12 -2-12


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP6.1 runs7%-1.7 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP6.2 runs7%-1.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR0.9 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.4 wins----0.2 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.