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2018 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 20 August 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Houston.664108
Boston.658107
NY Yankees.625101
Cleveland.609 99
LA Dodgers.605 98
Chicago Cubs.575 93
Atlanta.571 93
Oakland.567 92
Arizona.564 91
Tampa Bay.560 91
Washington.555 90
St. Louis.553 90
Milwaukee.539 87
LA Angels.524 85
Philadelphia.516 84
Colorado.505 82
Seattle.492 80
Pittsburgh.481 78
San Francisco.467 76
Cincinnati.450 73
Texas.441 71
NY Mets.437 71
Minnesota.429 69
Toronto.417 68
Chicago Sox.407 66
Detroit.394 64
Miami.389 63
San Diego.381 62
Baltimore.334 54
Kansas City.328 53


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .571 Chicago Cubs    .575 LA Dodgers      .605 Boston          .658 Cleveland       .609 Houston         .664
* Washington    .555 St. Louis       .553 * Arizona       .564 * NY Yankees    .625 Minnesota       .429 * Oakland       .567
Philadelphia    .516 Milwaukee       .539 Colorado        .505 Tampa Bay       .560 Chicago Sox     .407 LA Angels       .524
NY Mets         .437 Pittsburgh      .481 San Francisco   .467 Toronto         .417 Detroit         .394 Seattle         .492
Miami           .389 Cincinnati      .450 San Diego       .381 Baltimore       .334 Kansas City     .328 Texas           .441

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .556 Chicago Cubs    .577 Arizona         .552 Boston          .698 Cleveland       .581 Houston         .600
* Philadelphia  .548 * Milwaukee     .551 Colorado        .548 * NY Yankees    .629 Minnesota       .476 * Oakland       .600
Washington      .496 St. Louis       .548 LA Dodgers      .532 Tampa Bay       .512 Detroit         .408 Seattle         .571
NY Mets         .435 Pittsburgh      .500 San Francisco   .492 Toronto         .448 Chicago Sox     .379 LA Angels       .500
Miami           .397 Cincinnati      .440 San Diego       .386 Baltimore       .296 Kansas City     .304 Texas           .441

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona125 551 566 485 485 69 71 -2 70 -1 -2
Atlanta124 587 597 509 511 69 71 -2 71 -2 -3
Baltimore125 490 486 685 679 37 43 -6 42 -5 -6
Boston126 668 681 486 466 88 85 3 83 5 6
Chicago Cubs123 607 588 522 499 71 71 0 71 0 1
Chicago Sox124 519 513 626 663 47 47 0 50 -3 -5
Cincinnati125 581 566 642 631 55 56 -1 56 -1 -2
Cleveland124 624 633 501 494 72 76 -4 76 -4 -5
Colorado124 567 582 561 594 68 61 7 63 5 7
Detroit125 471 484 583 589 51 51 0 49 2 2
Houston125 576 612 414 415 75 85-10 83 -8 -11
Kansas City125 468 459 663 677 38 40 -2 41 -3 -4
LA Angels126 577 581 550 542 63 67 -4 66 -3 -4
LA Dodgers126 602 597 488 486 67 75 -8 76 -9 -12
Miami126 479 473 599 646 50 45 5 49 1 1
Milwaukee127 567 555 524 530 70 66 4 69 1 2
Minnesota124 526 559 607 583 59 59 0 53 6 8
NY Mets124 508 523 576 567 54 57 -3 54 0 0
NY Yankees124 639 647 497 499 78 77 1 78 0 1
Oakland125 581 595 508 519 75 70 5 71 4 5
Philadelphia124 529 534 512 526 68 63 5 64 4 5
Pittsburgh126 546 555 567 554 63 63 0 61 2 3
San Diego127 468 487 594 607 49 50 -1 48 1 1
Seattle126 534 523 543 562 72 59 13 62 10 13
San Francisco126 509 500 544 547 62 58 4 59 3 4
St. Louis126 568 574 511 516 69 69 0 70 -1 -1
Tampa Bay125 522 513 463 502 64 64 0 70 -6 -8
Texas127 589 611 663 675 56 57 -1 56 0 0
Toronto125 539 555 637 644 56 54 2 52 4 5
Washington125 578 572 518 513 62 69 -7 69 -7 -10


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP12.4 runs2.2%-5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP13.3 runs2.3%-4.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.33 wins----0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.37 wins----0.17 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 17.7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 21 August 2018, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.