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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Tuesday, 4 October 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.694112
Boston.635103
Washington.619100
Cleveland.576 93
LA Dodgers.574 93
San Francisco.567 92
Toronto.561 91
St. Louis.554 90
Detroit.541 88
NY Mets.528 86
Seattle.526 85
Baltimore.518 84
Houston.508 82
Texas.500 81
Miami.493 80
Colorado.492 80
NY Yankees.490 79
Tampa Bay.485 79
Chicago Sox.472 77
Milwaukee.459 74
Pittsburgh.458 74
Kansas City.448 73
Arizona.444 72
LA Angels.430 70
Atlanta.425 69
Minnesota.425 69
Oakland.425 69
San Diego.402 65
Philadelphia.390 63
Cincinnati.380 62


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .619 Chicago Cubs    .694 LA Dodgers      .574 Boston          .635 Cleveland       .576 Seattle         .526
NY Mets         .528 * St. Louis     .554 * San Francisco .567 * Toronto       .561 * Detroit       .541 Houston         .508
Miami           .493 Milwaukee       .459 Colorado        .492 Baltimore       .518 Chicago Sox     .472 Texas           .500
Atlanta         .425 Pittsburgh      .458 Arizona         .444 NY Yankees      .490 Kansas City     .448 LA Angels       .430
Philadelphia    .390 Cincinnati      .380 San Diego       .402 Tampa Bay       .485 Minnesota       .425 Oakland         .425

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .586 Chicago Cubs    .636 LA Dodgers      .562 Boston          .574 Cleveland       .584 Texas           .586
* NY Mets       .537 St. Louis       .531 * San Francisco .537 * Baltimore     .549 * Detroit       .534 Seattle         .531
Miami           .491 Pittsburgh      .481 Colorado        .463 Toronto         .549 Kansas City     .500 Houston         .519
Philadelphia    .438 Milwaukee       .451 Arizona         .426 NY Yankees      .519 Chicago Sox     .481 LA Angels       .457
Atlanta         .422 Cincinnati      .420 San Diego       .420 Tampa Bay       .420 Minnesota       .364 Oakland         .426

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 781 752 874 890 69 68 1 72 -3 -3
Atlanta161 663 649 770 779 68 67 1 68 0 -1
Baltimore162 749 744 723 715 89 84 5 84 5 5
Boston162 874 878 666 694 93 99 -6103-10 -10
Chicago Cubs162 813 808 549 556103109 -6112 -9 -9
Chicago Sox162 700 686 740 715 78 78 0 77 1 1
Cincinnati162 688 716 876 854 68 67 1 62 6 6
Cleveland161 764 777 656 676 94 91 3 93 1 2
Colorado162 828 845 842 860 75 80 -5 80 -5 -5
Detroit161 768 750 708 721 86 83 3 87 -1 -1
Houston162 723 724 711 701 84 83 1 82 2 2
Kansas City162 673 675 747 712 81 77 4 73 8 8
LA Angels162 674 717 775 727 74 80 -6 70 4 4
LA Dodgers162 708 725 611 638 91 91 0 93 -2 -2
Miami161 691 655 701 682 79 77 2 79 0 -1
Milwaukee162 703 671 763 733 73 74 -1 74 -1 -1
Minnesota162 743 722 863 889 59 65 -6 69-10 -10
NY Mets162 708 671 669 617 87 87 0 86 1 1
NY Yankees162 693 680 707 702 84 78 6 79 5 5
Oakland162 635 653 738 761 69 69 0 69 0 0
Philadelphia162 625 610 779 796 71 61 10 63 8 8
Pittsburgh162 736 729 800 758 78 78 0 74 4 4
San Diego162 634 686 771 770 68 72 -4 65 3 3
Seattle162 760 768 721 707 86 87 -1 85 1 1
San Francisco162 723 715 632 631 87 90 -3 92 -5 -5
St. Louis162 779 779 699 712 86 88 -2 90 -4 -4
Tampa Bay162 700 672 721 713 68 76 -8 79-11 -11
Texas162 750 765 750 757 95 82 13 81 14 14
Toronto162 752 759 665 666 89 91 -2 91 -2 -2
Washington162 764 763 602 612 95 98 -3100 -5 -5


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP16.9 runs2.4%1.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP18.5 runs2.6%2.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.43 wins----0.1 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP4.37 wins----0.17 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20.2 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 5 October 2016, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.