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2017 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 24 September 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Cleveland.690112
LA Dodgers.637103
NY Yankees.634103
Houston.606 98
Washington.597 97
Arizona.594 96
Chicago Cubs.579 94
Boston.556 90
St. Louis.549 89
Tampa Bay.535 87
Milwaukee.520 84
Colorado.505 82
Minnesota.502 81
Texas.492 80
Seattle.488 79
LA Angels.486 79
Miami.483 78
Oakland.475 77
Cincinnati.451 73
Atlanta.446 72
Kansas City.445 72
Baltimore.443 72
Pittsburgh.431 70
Toronto.429 70
NY Mets.423 68
Chicago Sox.418 68
Detroit.414 67
Philadelphia.412 67
San Diego.406 66
San Francisco.377 61


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .597 Chicago Cubs    .579 LA Dodgers      .637 NY Yankees      .634 Cleveland       .690 Houston         .606
Miami           .483 * St. Louis     .549 * Arizona       .594 * Boston        .556 Minnesota       .502 Texas           .492
Atlanta         .446 Milwaukee       .520 Colorado        .505 * Tampa Bay     .535 Kansas City     .445 Seattle         .488
NY Mets         .423 Cincinnati      .451 San Diego       .406 Baltimore       .443 Chicago Sox     .418 LA Angels       .486
Philadelphia    .412 Pittsburgh      .431 San Francisco   .377 Toronto         .429 Detroit         .414 Oakland         .475

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .606 Chicago Cubs    .561 LA Dodgers      .635 Boston          .587 Cleveland       .628 Houston         .613
Miami           .471 * Milwaukee     .526 * Arizona       .577 * NY Yankees    .555 * Minnesota     .526 LA Angels       .497
Atlanta         .455 St. Louis       .523 Colorado        .538 Tampa Bay       .487 Kansas City     .490 Texas           .490
NY Mets         .426 Pittsburgh      .455 San Diego       .449 Baltimore       .478 Chicago Sox     .406 Seattle         .481
Philadelphia    .397 Cincinnati      .423 San Francisco   .391 Toronto         .468 Detroit         .397 Oakland         .465

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona156 777 777 643 635 90 93 -3 93 -3 -3
Atlanta154 694 701 773 777 70 69 1 69 1 2
Baltimore157 725 736 813 809 75 71 4 70 5 5
Boston155 719 754 643 624 91 91 0 86 5 5
Chicago Cubs155 777 783 663 676 87 88 -1 90 -3 -3
Chicago Sox155 683 684 805 787 63 67 -4 65 -2 -2
Cincinnati156 762 731 840 843 66 67 -1 70 -4 -4
Cleveland156 801 789 545 548 98104 -6108-10 -10
Colorado156 754 784 747 731 84 83 1 79 5 5
Detroit156 724 719 860 871 62 64 -2 65 -3 -3
Houston155 832 837 673 680 95 93 2 94 1 1
Kansas City155 670 681 748 753 76 70 6 69 7 7
LA Angels155 648 675 666 678 77 77 0 75 2 1
LA Dodgers156 747 730 567 560 99 97 2 99 0 0
Miami155 744 736 769 781 73 73 0 75 -2 -2
Milwaukee156 731 704 702 671 82 81 1 81 1 1
Minnesota156 779 790 776 766 82 80 2 78 4 4
NY Mets155 722 710 843 827 66 66 0 66 0 1
NY Yankees155 823 822 628 643 86 95 -9 98-12 -13
Oakland155 716 713 752 792 72 70 2 74 -2 -2
Philadelphia156 656 657 783 764 62 67 -5 64 -2 -3
Pittsburgh156 644 633 739 707 71 70 1 67 4 4
San Diego156 614 592 742 773 70 58 12 63 7 7
Seattle156 708 719 725 746 75 75 0 76 -1 -1
San Francisco156 602 608 771 752 61 62 -1 59 2 2
St. Louis155 736 738 667 664 81 85 -4 85 -4 -4
Tampa Bay156 709 666 661 683 76 76 0 83 -7 -8
Texas155 725 776 736 763 76 79 -3 76 0 -1
Toronto156 665 668 766 759 73 69 4 67 6 6
Washington155 779 790 641 640 94 93 1 93 1 1


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14 runs2%-1.2 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP14.5 runs2%-0.5 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.6 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.53 wins----0.13 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20.1 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 25 September 2017, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.