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2019 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Tuesday, 25 June 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Dodgers.737119
Houston.668108
Tampa Bay.661107
Minnesota.659107
Boston.584 95
NY Yankees.582 94
Chicago Cubs.570 92
Arizona.564 91
Atlanta.554 90
Oakland.544 88
Cincinnati.540 87
St. Louis.529 86
Cleveland.524 85
Milwaukee.521 84
Washington.520 84
LA Angels.496 80
Texas.493 80
NY Mets.477 77
Colorado.477 77
San Diego.467 76
Seattle.463 75
Philadelphia.438 71
Kansas City.424 69
Pittsburgh.417 68
Chicago Sox.415 67
Miami.386 62
Toronto.343 56
San Francisco.338 55
Detroit.306 50
Baltimore.290 47


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .554 Chicago Cubs    .570 LA Dodgers      .737 Tampa Bay       .661 Minnesota       .659 Houston         .668
Washington      .520 * Cincinnati    .540 * Arizona       .564 * Boston        .584 Cleveland       .524 Oakland         .544
NY Mets         .477 St. Louis       .529 Colorado        .477 * NY Yankees    .582 Kansas City     .424 LA Angels       .496
Philadelphia    .438 Milwaukee       .521 San Diego       .467 Toronto         .343 Chicago Sox     .415 Texas           .493
Miami           .386 Pittsburgh      .417 San Francisco   .338 Baltimore       .290 Detroit         .306 Seattle         .463

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .588 Chicago Cubs    .544 LA Dodgers      .679 NY Yankees      .646 Minnesota       .654 Houston         .625
* Philadelphia  .519 * Milwaukee     .532 Colorado        .519 * Tampa Bay     .570 Cleveland       .544 * Texas         .544
Washington      .487 St. Louis       .513 San Diego       .494 Boston          .543 Chicago Sox     .468 Oakland         .519
NY Mets         .463 Pittsburgh      .468 Arizona         .494 Toronto         .363 Kansas City     .350 LA Angels       .500
Miami           .390 Cincinnati      .468 San Francisco   .436 Baltimore       .278 Detroit         .347 Seattle         .434

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 81 416 415 366 374 40 44 -4 46 -6 -11
Atlanta 80 431 433 387 388 47 44 3 44 3 5
Baltimore 79 318 316 487 502 22 23 -1 23 -1 -2
Boston 81 434 435 367 380 44 46 -2 47 -3 -7
Chicago Cubs 79 389 399 338 336 43 46 -3 45 -2 -4
Chicago Sox 77 328 330 389 396 36 32 4 32 4 9
Cincinnati 77 325 335 300 291 36 44 -8 42 -6 -11
Cleveland 79 348 350 332 328 43 42 1 41 2 3
Colorado 79 400 438 419 421 41 41 0 38 3 7
Detroit 75 276 263 409 407 26 22 4 23 3 6
Houston 80 424 410 302 311 50 50 0 53 -3 -7
Kansas City 80 342 343 398 401 28 34 -6 34 -6 -12
LA Angels 80 403 406 406 399 40 41 -1 40 0 1
LA Dodgers 81 446 423 275 292 55 54 1 60 -5 -9
Miami 77 263 268 331 343 30 30 0 30 0 1
Milwaukee 79 411 393 394 399 42 39 3 41 1 2
Minnesota 78 456 449 331 339 51 49 2 51 0 -1
NY Mets 80 387 383 405 412 37 37 0 38 -1 -2
NY Yankees 79 410 439 348 343 51 49 2 46 5 11
Oakland 81 390 406 357 363 42 45 -3 44 -2 -4
Philadelphia 79 366 380 414 380 41 39 2 35 6 13
Pittsburgh 77 352 347 416 423 36 31 5 32 4 8
San Diego 79 339 351 362 383 39 36 3 37 2 4
Seattle 83 441 443 475 501 36 37 -1 38 -2 -5
San Francisco 78 276 303 383 393 34 29 5 26 8 16
St. Louis 78 351 358 331 347 40 40 0 41 -1 -3
Tampa Bay 79 383 363 277 283 45 49 -4 52 -7 -15
Texas 79 415 440 421 407 43 42 1 39 4 8
Toronto 80 308 329 423 417 29 31 -2 27 2 3
Washington 78 375 389 360 378 38 40 -2 41 -3 -5


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.6 runs3.1%-4.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP10 runs2.7%-4.5 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.43 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.17 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 14.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 26 June 2019, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.