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2018 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 17 June 2018.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Houston.727118
NY Yankees.687111
Chicago Cubs.652106
Boston.652106
Atlanta.589 95
Washington.585 95
Milwaukee.568 92
LA Dodgers.568 92
Cleveland.564 91
Seattle.557 90
Tampa Bay.538 87
LA Angels.538 87
Arizona.537 87
Philadelphia.525 85
San Francisco.511 83
St. Louis.505 82
Pittsburgh.502 81
Oakland.482 78
Detroit.478 77
Minnesota.448 73
Colorado.445 72
Toronto.434 70
Cincinnati.414 67
NY Mets.410 66
Chicago Sox.402 65
San Diego.399 65
Texas.366 59
Miami.365 59
Kansas City.313 51
Baltimore.298 48


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .589 Chicago Cubs    .652 LA Dodgers      .568 NY Yankees      .687 Cleveland       .564 Houston         .727
* Washington    .585 * Milwaukee     .568 Arizona         .537 * Boston        .652 Detroit         .478 * Seattle       .557
Philadelphia    .525 St. Louis       .505 San Francisco   .511 Tampa Bay       .538 Minnesota       .448 LA Angels       .538
NY Mets         .410 Pittsburgh      .502 Colorado        .445 Toronto         .434 Chicago Sox     .402 Oakland         .482
Miami           .365 Cincinnati      .414 San Diego       .399 Baltimore       .298 Kansas City     .313 Texas           .366

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .592 Milwaukee       .592 Arizona         .549 NY Yankees      .676 Cleveland       .529 Houston         .658
* Washington    .536 * Chicago Cubs  .588 LA Dodgers      .529 * Boston        .671 Detroit         .493 * Seattle       .639
Philadelphia    .536 St. Louis       .536 San Francisco   .486 Tampa Bay       .465 Minnesota       .456 LA Angels       .528
NY Mets         .441 Pittsburgh      .493 Colorado        .479 Toronto         .465 Chicago Sox     .343 Oakland         .500
Miami           .389 Cincinnati      .366 San Diego       .459 Baltimore       .286 Kansas City     .310 Texas           .397

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 71 296 312 275 267 39 41 -2 38 1 2
Atlanta 71 338 344 283 277 42 43 -1 42 0 1
Baltimore 70 260 248 392 361 20 23 -3 21 -1 -2
Boston 73 371 371 273 263 49 48 1 48 1 3
Chicago Cubs 68 348 337 256 242 40 44 -4 44 -4 -11
Chicago Sox 70 282 265 343 350 24 26 -2 28 -4 -9
Cincinnati 71 314 301 373 368 26 29 -3 29 -3 -8
Cleveland 70 339 334 298 306 37 38 -1 40 -3 -5
Colorado 71 311 325 347 369 34 31 3 32 2 6
Detroit 73 309 305 323 328 36 34 2 35 1 3
Houston 73 357 383 225 226 48 54 -6 53 -5 -11
Kansas City 71 266 262 388 398 22 22 0 22 0 -1
LA Angels 72 331 328 307 298 38 39 -1 39 -1 -1
LA Dodgers 70 321 334 280 278 37 41 -4 40 -3 -6
Miami 72 263 253 345 362 28 24 4 26 2 4
Milwaukee 71 315 314 275 265 42 41 1 40 2 4
Minnesota 68 281 290 312 298 31 33 -2 30 1 1
NY Mets 68 258 255 309 299 30 29 1 28 2 5
NY Yankees 68 356 359 244 261 46 44 2 47 -1 -1
Oakland 72 305 316 316 322 36 35 1 35 1 3
Philadelphia 69 289 296 275 289 37 35 2 36 1 2
Pittsburgh 71 319 330 318 328 35 36 -1 36 -1 -1
San Diego 74 266 283 326 328 34 32 2 30 4 9
Seattle 72 326 315 291 293 46 38 8 40 6 14
San Francisco 72 318 298 311 327 35 33 2 37 -2 -4
St. Louis 69 289 294 286 282 37 36 1 35 2 5
Tampa Bay 71 290 280 269 293 33 34 -1 38 -5 -12
Texas 73 304 315 398 393 29 29 0 27 2 5
Toronto 71 306 320 349 342 33 33 0 31 2 5
Washington 69 293 293 247 247 37 40 -3 40 -3 -8


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP9.6 runs3.1%-1.3 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP9.9 runs3.2%-0.9 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.13 wins----0.13 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.2 wins----0.2 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 13.2 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 18 June 2018, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.