Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


2015 Major-League Team-Performance Results


Quick page jumps:


Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 30 August 2015.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Toronto.619100
LA Dodgers.594 96
Houston.594 96
St. Louis.574 93
NY Yankees.564 91
Pittsburgh.558 90
Cleveland.554 90
San Francisco.554 90
Kansas City.548 89
Chicago Cubs.540 87
Oakland.539 87
NY Mets.538 87
Washington.535 87
Arizona.517 84
Tampa Bay.509 82
Baltimore.495 80
Cincinnati.477 77
Boston.477 77
Detroit.475 77
Texas.472 76
Miami.469 76
Seattle.468 76
LA Angels.465 75
San Diego.445 72
Chicago Sox.431 70
Milwaukee.427 69
Minnesota.427 69
Colorado.413 67
Atlanta.392 63
Philadelphia.359 58


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
NY Mets         .538 St. Louis       .574 LA Dodgers      .594 Toronto         .619 Cleveland       .554 Houston         .594
Washington      .535 * Pittsburgh    .558 * San Francisco .554 * NY Yankees    .564 * Kansas City   .548 Oakland         .539
Miami           .469 Chicago Cubs    .540 Arizona         .517 Tampa Bay       .509 Detroit         .475 Texas           .472
Atlanta         .392 Cincinnati      .477 San Diego       .445 Baltimore       .495 Chicago Sox     .431 Seattle         .468
Philadelphia    .359 Milwaukee       .427 Colorado        .413 Boston          .477 Minnesota       .427 LA Angels       .465

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
NY Mets         .554 St. Louis       .646 LA Dodgers      .558 Toronto         .569 Kansas City     .615 Houston         .550
Washington      .512 * Pittsburgh    .612 * San Francisco .531 * NY Yankees    .558 Minnesota       .515 * Texas         .527
Atlanta         .415 Chicago Cubs    .574 San Diego       .485 Tampa Bay       .492 Cleveland       .488 LA Angels       .500
Miami           .397 Milwaukee       .423 Arizona         .485 Baltimore       .485 Chicago Sox     .473 Seattle         .466
Philadelphia    .397 Cincinnati      .411 Colorado        .406 Boston          .462 Detroit         .462 Oakland         .435

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona130 600 584 580 560 63 67 -4 67 -4 -5
Atlanta130 493 475 613 611 54 50 4 51 3 4
Baltimore130 536 564 541 525 63 69 -6 64 -1 -1
Boston130 592 589 620 627 60 61 -1 62 -2 -2
Chicago Cubs129 546 527 504 498 74 68 6 70 4 6
Chicago Sox129 489 493 561 551 61 58 3 56 5 7
Cincinnati129 554 505 580 574 53 57 -4 62 -9 -10
Cleveland129 549 530 493 532 63 64 -1 71 -8 -11
Colorado128 576 573 686 678 52 54 -2 53 -1 -1
Detroit130 594 567 624 640 60 58 2 62 -2 -2
Houston131 559 562 463 466 72 77 -5 78 -6 -7
Kansas City130 559 569 508 484 80 75 5 71 9 11
LA Angels130 496 515 532 533 65 63 2 60 5 6
LA Dodgers129 554 527 459 464 72 72 0 77 -5 -6
Miami131 500 481 532 548 52 57 -5 61 -9 -12
Milwaukee130 511 521 591 591 55 57 -2 56 -1 0
Minnesota130 510 564 590 571 67 64 3 56 11 14
NY Mets130 526 530 487 477 72 71 1 70 2 3
NY Yankees129 619 627 544 550 72 72 0 73 -1 -1
Oakland131 536 538 496 526 57 67-10 71-14 -17
Philadelphia131 519 501 690 663 52 48 4 47 5 6
Pittsburgh129 561 546 499 465 79 74 5 72 7 9
San Diego130 506 529 565 576 63 60 3 58 5 7
Seattle131 544 509 580 600 61 55 6 61 0 -1
San Francisco130 573 560 514 498 69 72 -3 72 -3 -4
St. Louis130 544 524 469 387 84 83 1 75 9 12
Tampa Bay130 508 483 499 505 64 62 2 66 -2 -2
Texas129 574 575 607 594 68 62 6 61 7 9
Toronto130 647 718 509 525 74 84-10 81 -7 -8
Washington129 546 550 509 517 66 68 -2 69 -3 -4


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP18.9 runs3.5%2.8 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.9 runs3.1%3.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.6 wins----0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP5 wins----0.2 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 17.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of "Performance-Enhancing Drugs" in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2015 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Monday, 31 August 2015, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.