Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.
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The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.
"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)
|All Teams, by Performance
This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.
(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)
|Projected (not actual) Standings|
|National League||American League|
|Washington .642||Chicago Cubs .677||LA Dodgers .602||Boston .616||Cleveland .594||Houston .545|
|Miami .542||* St. Louis .616||* San Francisco .560||* Toronto .577||Detroit .520||Seattle .527|
|NY Mets .534||Pittsburgh .474||Colorado .498||* Baltimore .528||Chicago Sox .464||Texas .476|
|Philadelphia .395||Milwaukee .423||Arizona .446||NY Yankees .476||Kansas City .445||LA Angels .447|
|Atlanta .361||Cincinnati .316||San Diego .411||Tampa Bay .467||Minnesota .437||Oakland .408|
And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):
|Actual Current Standings|
|National League||American League|
|Washington .580||Chicago Cubs .596||San Francisco .590||Baltimore .586||Cleveland .582||Texas .574|
|* Miami .540||St. Louis .530||* LA Dodgers .564||* Toronto .564||Detroit .525||* Houston .540|
|NY Mets .535||Pittsburgh .515||Colorado .480||Boston .561||Chicago Sox .500||Seattle .515|
|Philadelphia .451||Milwaukee .439||San Diego .426||NY Yankees .520||Kansas City .485||Oakland .455|
|Atlanta .340||Cincinnati .390||Arizona .410||Tampa Bay .384||Minnesota .374||LA Angels .450|
(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)
The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).
The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.
|Wins Projected From:|
These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.
(calculated vs. actual)
(+ and - cancel)
|Batting Runs, from TOP||14.7 runs||3.4%||2.4 runs|
|Pitching Runs, from TPP||12.3 runs||2.9%||2.8 runs|
|Games Won from R/OR||3.1 wins||---||-0.03 wins|
|Games Won from TPP/TOP||3.77 wins||---||-0.03 wins|
Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 15.8 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.
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This page was last modified on Wednesday, 27 July 2016, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.