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2019 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Thursday, 22 August 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Dodgers.717116
Houston.677110
Tampa Bay.628102
Minnesota.623101
Boston.580 94
NY Yankees.573 93
Washington.570 92
Cleveland.569 92
Arizona.555 90
Oakland.553 90
Chicago Cubs.551 89
Atlanta.541 88
St. Louis.532 86
Cincinnati.524 85
NY Mets.522 85
Milwaukee.506 82
LA Angels.473 77
San Diego.472 76
Philadelphia.458 74
Seattle.452 73
Texas.448 73
Colorado.447 72
San Francisco.425 69
Toronto.412 67
Pittsburgh.408 66
Chicago Sox.399 65
Kansas City.386 62
Miami.355 57
Baltimore.322 52
Detroit.316 51


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .570 Chicago Cubs    .551 LA Dodgers      .717 Tampa Bay       .628 Minnesota       .623 Houston         .677
* Atlanta       .541 St. Louis       .532 * Arizona       .555 * Boston        .580 Cleveland       .569 Oakland         .553
NY Mets         .522 Cincinnati      .524 San Diego       .472 * NY Yankees    .573 Chicago Sox     .399 LA Angels       .473
Philadelphia    .458 Milwaukee       .506 Colorado        .447 Toronto         .412 Kansas City     .386 Seattle         .452
Miami           .355 Pittsburgh      .408 San Francisco   .425 Baltimore       .322 Detroit         .316 Texas           .448

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .597 Chicago Cubs    .543 LA Dodgers      .659 NY Yankees      .643 Minnesota       .606 Houston         .636
* Washington    .551 * St. Louis     .540 Arizona         .500 * Tampa Bay     .581 Cleveland       .578 * Oakland       .578
NY Mets         .528 Milwaukee       .512 San Francisco   .492 Boston          .527 Chicago Sox     .457 Texas           .488
Philadelphia    .524 Cincinnati      .476 San Diego       .468 Toronto         .400 Kansas City     .352 LA Angels       .485
Miami           .357 Pittsburgh      .409 Colorado        .453 Baltimore       .320 Detroit         .302 Seattle         .422

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona128 659 665 590 601 64 70 -6 71 -7 -9
Atlanta129 692 691 637 619 77 71 6 70 7 9
Baltimore128 551 557 790 812 41 41 0 41 0 0
Boston129 744 740 634 661 68 71 -3 75 -7 -9
Chicago Cubs127 623 628 563 554 69 71 -2 70 -1 -1
Chicago Sox127 528 538 647 655 58 52 6 51 7 9
Cincinnati126 574 570 547 546 60 65 -5 66 -6 -8
Cleveland128 600 600 523 512 74 73 1 73 1 2
Colorado128 650 683 723 743 58 59 -1 57 1 1
Detroit126 478 452 694 697 38 38 0 40 -2 -2
Houston129 727 703 508 519 82 83 -1 87 -5 -7
Kansas City128 527 542 663 665 45 52 -7 49 -4 -5
LA Angels130 642 658 677 686 63 62 1 62 1 2
LA Dodgers129 720 714 463 489 85 87 -2 93 -8 -9
Miami126 442 456 592 612 45 46 -1 45 0 1
Milwaukee127 648 610 640 645 65 60 5 64 1 1
Minnesota127 738 740 576 592 77 77 0 79 -2 -3
NY Mets127 623 617 596 591 67 66 1 66 1 0
NY Yankees129 722 756 624 615 83 77 6 74 9 11
Oakland128 613 646 551 542 74 74 0 71 3 4
Philadelphia126 591 600 643 614 66 62 4 58 8 11
Pittsburgh127 575 578 691 703 52 52 0 52 0 0
San Diego126 551 564 583 604 59 59 0 59 0 0
Seattle128 630 629 693 725 54 55 -1 58 -4 -5
San Francisco128 527 562 612 618 63 58 5 54 9 11
St. Louis126 556 567 521 532 68 67 1 67 1 1
Tampa Bay129 624 602 482 505 75 75 0 81 -6 -8
Texas129 634 654 704 691 63 61 2 58 5 6
Toronto130 557 583 664 651 52 58 -6 54 -2 -2
Washington127 670 675 582 581 70 72 -2 72 -2 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.3 runs2.4%-5.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP13.4 runs2.2%-5.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.5 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.67 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 18.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 23 August 2019, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.