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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Thursday, 28 April 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.895145
St. Louis.732119
Washington.681110
NY Mets.665108
Chicago Sox.650105
Baltimore.610 99
LA Dodgers.610 99
Seattle.574 93
Boston.552 89
Cleveland.551 89
Kansas City.535 87
Tampa Bay.534 87
Pittsburgh.533 86
San Francisco.532 86
Miami.518 84
Arizona.512 83
Toronto.495 80
Detroit.495 80
Minnesota.469 76
Colorado.462 75
NY Yankees.459 74
Texas.439 71
Oakland.435 71
Philadelphia.414 67
Houston.383 62
LA Angels.379 61
San Diego.314 51
Atlanta.239 39
Cincinnati.234 38
Milwaukee.226 37


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .681 Chicago Cubs    .895 LA Dodgers      .610 Baltimore       .610 Chicago Sox     .650 Seattle         .574
* NY Mets       .665 * St. Louis     .732 San Francisco   .532 Boston          .552 * Cleveland     .551 Texas           .439
Miami           .518 Pittsburgh      .533 Arizona         .512 Tampa Bay       .534 Kansas City     .535 Oakland         .435
Philadelphia    .414 Cincinnati      .234 Colorado        .462 Toronto         .495 Detroit         .495 Houston         .383
Atlanta         .239 Milwaukee       .226 San Diego       .314 NY Yankees      .459 Minnesota       .469 LA Angels       .379

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .667 Chicago Cubs    .762 San Francisco   .522 Baltimore       .619 Chicago Sox     .696 Texas           .545
* NY Mets       .650 * Pittsburgh    .591 LA Dodgers      .522 * Boston        .545 * Kansas City   .571 Seattle         .524
Philadelphia    .545 St. Louis       .545 Arizona         .500 Tampa Bay       .476 Cleveland       .526 LA Angels       .500
Miami           .476 Cincinnati      .409 Colorado        .429 Toronto         .435 Detroit         .524 Oakland         .478
Atlanta         .227 Milwaukee       .381 San Diego       .318 NY Yankees      .400 Minnesota       .318 Houston         .318

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 24 128 118 125 124 12 11 1 12 0 -2
Atlanta 22 68 74 116 116 5 6 -1 5 0 -2
Baltimore 21 96 95 77 75 13 13 0 13 0 1
Boston 22 112 114 101 103 12 12 0 12 0 -1
Chicago Cubs 21 120 130 52 56 16 18 -2 19 -3 -22
Chicago Sox 23 88 84 65 63 16 15 1 15 1 8
Cincinnati 22 76 85 131 131 9 7 2 5 4 28
Cleveland 19 82 85 74 77 10 10 0 10 0 -4
Colorado 21 114 112 123 133 9 9 0 10 -1 -6
Detroit 21 93 96 94 90 11 11 0 10 1 5
Houston 22 94 86 119 114 7 8 -1 8 -1 -10
Kansas City 21 88 77 82 74 12 11 1 11 1 6
LA Angels 22 69 76 88 82 11 10 1 8 3 20
LA Dodgers 23 96 102 77 87 12 13 -1 14 -2 -14
Miami 21 87 79 84 86 10 10 0 11 -1 -7
Milwaukee 21 77 81 135 124 8 6 2 5 3 25
Minnesota 22 93 77 99 97 7 9 -2 10 -3 -24
NY Mets 20 99 88 71 60 13 14 -1 13 0 -3
NY Yankees 20 81 72 88 92 8 8 0 9 -1 -9
Oakland 23 87 81 99 94 11 10 1 10 1 6
Philadelphia 22 74 72 88 91 12 9 3 9 3 21
Pittsburgh 22 127 119 119 107 13 12 1 12 1 10
San Diego 22 83 85 121 120 7 7 0 7 0 1
Seattle 21 87 93 75 76 11 12 -1 12 -1 -8
San Francisco 23 114 118 107 102 12 13 -1 12 0 -1
St. Louis 22 138 137 86 92 12 15 -3 16 -4 -31
Tampa Bay 21 76 71 71 71 10 10 0 11 -1 -10
Texas 22 84 95 95 86 12 12 0 10 2 17
Toronto 23 91 91 92 97 10 11 -1 11 -1 -10
Washington 21 85 82 59 55 14 14 0 14 0 -2


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP5.9 runs6.8%1.1 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP4.6 runs5.3%1.3 runs
Games Won from R/OR0.9 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.3 wins---0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 7.2 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Friday, 29 April 2016, at 6:31 am Pacific Time.