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2017 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 23 July 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Dodgers.702114
Houston.679110
Cleveland.635103
Washington.629102
NY Yankees.621101
Arizona.600 97
Tampa Bay.554 90
Chicago Cubs.546 88
Boston.537 87
St. Louis.522 85
Milwaukee.521 84
Colorado.511 83
Seattle.484 78
Texas.480 78
Miami.480 78
Detroit.480 78
Kansas City.474 77
LA Angels.472 76
Oakland.463 75
Pittsburgh.458 74
Cincinnati.457 74
Atlanta.445 72
NY Mets.440 71
Minnesota.428 69
Chicago Sox.424 69
Toronto.411 67
Philadelphia.403 65
San Diego.400 65
Baltimore.394 64
San Francisco.356 58


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Miami           .480 Chicago Cubs    .546 LA Dodgers      .702 NY Yankees      .621 Cleveland       .635 Houston         .679
Atlanta         .445 * St. Louis     .522 * Arizona       .600 * Tampa Bay     .554 Detroit         .480 Seattle         .484
NY Mets         .440 Milwaukee       .521 Colorado        .511 Boston          .537 Kansas City     .474 Texas           .480
Philadelphia    .403 Pittsburgh      .458 San Diego       .400 Toronto         .411 Minnesota       .428 LA Angels       .472
                .000 Cincinnati      .457 San Francisco   .356 Baltimore       .394 Chicago Sox     .424 Oakland         .463

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .485 Chicago Cubs    .526 LA Dodgers      .687 Boston          .550 Cleveland       .531 Houston         .663
NY Mets         .469 * Milwaukee     .525 * Colorado      .580 * NY Yankees    .526 * Kansas City   .515 Seattle         .490
Miami           .458 Pittsburgh      .495 Arizona         .571 Tampa Bay       .515 Minnesota       .505 LA Angels       .490
Philadelphia    .354 St. Louis       .480 San Diego       .439 Baltimore       .480 Detroit         .464 Texas           .490
                .000 Cincinnati      .418 San Francisco   .380 Toronto         .449 Chicago Sox     .400 Oakland         .449

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 98 490 492 401 386 56 60 -4 59 -3 -4
Atlanta 97 430 454 480 492 47 45 2 43 4 6
Baltimore 98 446 457 552 531 47 42 5 39 8 14
Boston100 453 470 421 406 55 57 -2 54 1 2
Chicago Cubs 97 458 455 418 432 51 51 0 53 -2 -3
Chicago Sox 95 406 421 473 473 38 42 -4 40 -2 -4
Cincinnati 98 490 455 534 535 41 41 0 45 -4 -6
Cleveland 96 467 460 356 379 51 57 -6 61-10 -17
Colorado100 494 540 483 482 58 55 3 51 7 11
Detroit 97 468 474 487 493 45 47 -2 47 -2 -3
Houston 98 582 581 405 412 65 65 0 67 -2 -3
Kansas City 97 411 413 433 434 50 46 4 46 4 7
LA Angels100 396 407 419 425 49 48 1 47 2 3
LA Dodgers 99 511 506 339 332 68 69 -1 70 -2 -3
Miami 96 443 439 461 476 44 44 0 46 -2 -4
Milwaukee101 494 487 474 454 53 54 -1 53 0 1
Minnesota 97 450 443 520 509 49 42 7 42 7 13
NY Mets 96 463 461 522 502 45 44 1 42 3 5
NY Yankees 97 517 517 405 413 51 59 -8 60 -9 -16
Oakland 98 425 424 458 500 44 41 3 45 -1 -2
Philadelphia 96 386 385 469 462 34 40 -6 39 -5 -8
Pittsburgh 99 432 421 470 446 49 47 2 45 4 6
San Diego 98 390 371 477 503 43 35 8 39 4 6
Seattle100 452 473 467 480 49 49 0 48 1 1
San Francisco100 385 391 515 505 38 38 0 36 2 4
St. Louis 98 440 443 421 423 47 51 -4 51 -4 -7
Tampa Bay 99 480 459 431 446 51 51 0 55 -4 -7
Texas 98 438 478 456 467 48 50 -2 47 1 1
Toronto 98 406 401 485 491 44 40 4 40 4 6
Washington 97 546 540 421 429 59 59 0 61 -2 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.3 runs2.5%-2.3 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP12.2 runs2.7%-2.2 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.67 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.53 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 16 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Monday, 24 July 2017, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.