Owing to the screen size of your device, you may obtain a better viewing experience by rotating your device a quarter-turn (to get the so-called "panorama" screen view).
owlcroft logo
An Owlcroft Company web site
Click here to email us.

The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

Search this site, or just roll your cursor over the colored boxes below the pictures.

  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:


2017 Major-League Team-Performance Results


Quick page jumps:


Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2017.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Cleveland.691112
NY Yankees.646105
LA Dodgers.639104
Houston.619100
Washington.602 97
Arizona.600 97
Chicago Cubs.582 94
Boston.542 88
Tampa Bay.539 87
St. Louis.536 87
Milwaukee.520 84
Colorado.516 84
Minnesota.505 82
Seattle.494 80
Miami.485 79
LA Angels.485 79
Texas.480 78
Oakland.472 76
Cincinnati.455 74
Atlanta.443 72
Kansas City.436 71
Toronto.432 70
Baltimore.429 69
Pittsburgh.429 70
NY Mets.421 68
Philadelphia.419 68
Chicago Sox.418 68
Detroit.412 67
San Diego.394 64
San Francisco.382 62


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .602 Chicago Cubs    .582 LA Dodgers      .639 NY Yankees      .646 Cleveland       .691 Houston         .619
Miami           .485 * St. Louis     .536 * Arizona       .600 * Boston        .542 Minnesota       .505 Seattle         .494
Atlanta         .443 Milwaukee       .520 Colorado        .516 * Tampa Bay     .539 Kansas City     .436 LA Angels       .485
NY Mets         .421 Cincinnati      .455 San Diego       .394 Toronto         .432 Chicago Sox     .418 Texas           .480
Philadelphia    .419 Pittsburgh      .429 San Francisco   .382 Baltimore       .429 Detroit         .412 Oakland         .472

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .599 Chicago Cubs    .568 LA Dodgers      .642 Boston          .574 Cleveland       .630 Houston         .623
Miami           .475 * Milwaukee     .531 * Arizona       .574 * NY Yankees    .562 * Minnesota     .525 LA Angels       .494
Atlanta         .444 St. Louis       .512 Colorado        .537 Tampa Bay       .494 Kansas City     .494 Seattle         .481
NY Mets         .432 Pittsburgh      .463 San Diego       .438 Toronto         .469 Chicago Sox     .414 Texas           .481
Philadelphia    .407 Cincinnati      .420 San Francisco   .395 Baltimore       .463 Detroit         .395 Oakland         .463

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 814 812 666 659 93 97 -4 97 -4 -4
Atlanta162 730 732 818 821 72 72 0 72 0 0
Baltimore162 731 743 843 841 75 71 4 69 6 6
Boston162 745 785 685 668 93 93 0 88 5 5
Chicago Cubs162 810 822 687 695 92 94 -2 94 -2 -2
Chicago Sox162 704 706 830 820 67 70 -3 68 -1 -1
Cincinnati162 788 753 862 869 68 70 -2 74 -6 -6
Cleveland162 829 818 563 564102109 -7112-10 -10
Colorado162 795 824 770 757 87 87 0 84 3 3
Detroit162 738 735 881 894 64 66 -2 67 -3 -3
Houston162 884 896 696 700101100 1100 1 1
Kansas City162 690 702 785 791 80 72 8 71 9 9
LA Angels162 678 710 699 709 80 81 -1 79 1 1
LA Dodgers162 783 770 592 580104102 2104 0 0
Miami162 784 778 808 822 77 77 0 79 -2 -2
Milwaukee162 756 732 726 697 86 85 1 84 2 2
Minnesota162 807 815 799 788 85 83 2 82 3 3
NY Mets162 751 735 879 863 70 69 1 68 2 2
NY Yankees162 862 858 642 660 91101-10105-14 -14
Oakland162 740 739 783 826 75 72 3 76 -1 -1
Philadelphia162 686 690 807 782 66 71 -5 68 -2 -2
Pittsburgh162 668 668 770 731 75 74 1 70 5 5
San Diego162 632 604 782 816 71 58 13 64 7 7
Seattle162 740 750 749 772 78 79 -1 80 -2 -2
San Francisco162 630 639 799 776 64 66 -2 62 2 2
St. Louis162 757 761 704 705 83 87 -4 87 -4 -4
Tampa Bay162 737 694 682 704 80 80 0 87 -7 -7
Texas162 752 799 782 816 78 79 -1 78 0 0
Toronto162 687 693 787 784 76 72 4 70 6 6
Washington162 817 819 666 672 97 96 1 97 0 0


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.3 runs1.9%-1.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.1 runs2%-1.3 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.83 wins----0.1 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.67 wins----0.2 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




  Advertisement:


  Advertisement:



Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of "Performance-Enhancing Drugs" in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.

All content copyright © 2002 - 2017 by The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional) and the W3C Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) Protocol v3 — because we care about interoperability. Click on the logos below to test us!



This page was last modified on Monday, 2 October 2017, at 6:32 am Pacific Time.