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2019 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Monday, 30 September 2019.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Houston.707115
LA Dodgers.703114
Minnesota.615100
Tampa Bay.612 99
NY Yankees.591 96
Washington.588 95
Oakland.580 94
St. Louis.570 92
Cleveland.562 91
Atlanta.558 90
Boston.554 90
Chicago Cubs.536 87
Arizona.534 86
NY Mets.530 86
Milwaukee.529 86
Cincinnati.523 85
Philadelphia.468 76
LA Angels.442 72
San Diego.440 71
Seattle.438 71
Texas.436 71
Chicago Sox.426 69
Colorado.426 69
San Francisco.419 68
Toronto.414 67
Pittsburgh.401 65
Kansas City.384 62
Miami.363 59
Baltimore.356 58
Detroit.301 49


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .588 St. Louis       .570 LA Dodgers      .703 Tampa Bay       .612 Minnesota       .615 Houston         .707
* Atlanta       .558 * Chicago Cubs  .536 Arizona         .534 * NY Yankees    .591 Cleveland       .562 * Oakland       .580
NY Mets         .530 Milwaukee       .529 San Diego       .440 Boston          .554 Chicago Sox     .426 LA Angels       .442
Philadelphia    .468 Cincinnati      .523 Colorado        .426 Toronto         .414 Kansas City     .384 Seattle         .438
Miami           .363 Pittsburgh      .401 San Francisco   .419 Baltimore       .356 Detroit         .301 Texas           .436

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .599 St. Louis       .562 LA Dodgers      .654 NY Yankees      .636 Minnesota       .623 Houston         .660
* Washington    .574 * Milwaukee     .549 Arizona         .525 * Tampa Bay     .593 Cleveland       .574 * Oakland       .599
NY Mets         .531 Chicago Cubs    .519 San Francisco   .475 Boston          .519 Chicago Sox     .447 Texas           .481
Philadelphia    .500 Cincinnati      .463 Colorado        .438 Toronto         .414 Kansas City     .364 LA Angels       .444
Miami           .352 Pittsburgh      .426 San Diego       .432 Baltimore       .333 Detroit         .292 Seattle         .420

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 798 813 746 743 85 88 -3 86 -1 -1
Atlanta162 852 855 758 743 97 92 5 90 7 7
Baltimore162 716 729 956 981 54 58 -4 58 -4 -4
Boston162 894 901 802 828 84 87 -3 90 -6 -6
Chicago Cubs162 796 814 740 717 84 91 -7 87 -3 -3
Chicago Sox161 703 708 816 832 72 68 4 69 3 3
Cincinnati162 721 701 688 711 75 80 -5 85-10 -10
Cleveland162 758 769 669 657 93 93 0 91 2 2
Colorado162 816 835 947 958 71 70 1 69 2 2
Detroit161 611 582 915 915 47 47 0 48 -1 -2
Houston162 950 920 624 640107108 -1115 -8 -8
Kansas City162 680 691 859 869 59 63 -4 62 -3 -3
LA Angels162 758 769 852 868 72 72 0 72 0 0
LA Dodgers162 879 886 582 613106109 -3114 -8 -8
Miami162 594 615 782 808 57 60 -3 59 -2 -2
Milwaukee162 814 769 768 766 89 81 8 86 3 3
Minnesota162 933 939 740 754101 98 3100 1 1
NY Mets162 798 791 751 737 86 86 0 86 0 0
NY Yankees162 903 943 752 739103 99 4 96 7 7
Oakland162 806 845 686 680 97 97 0 94 3 3
Philadelphia162 768 774 818 794 81 79 2 76 5 5
Pittsburgh162 738 758 900 911 69 67 2 65 4 4
San Diego162 670 682 755 789 70 70 0 71 -1 -1
Seattle162 754 758 854 893 68 68 0 71 -3 -3
San Francisco162 648 678 762 773 77 71 6 68 9 9
St. Louis162 753 764 654 662 91 92 -1 92 -1 -1
Tampa Bay162 779 769 622 656 96 93 3 99 -3 -3
Texas162 777 810 883 878 78 75 3 71 7 7
Toronto162 703 726 835 828 67 71 -4 67 0 0
Washington162 855 873 716 724 93 95 -2 95 -2 -2


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP17.5 runs2.3%-8.1 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP16.1 runs2.1%-7.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.7 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.63 wins----0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20.8 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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This page was last modified on Tuesday, 1 October 2019, at 6:33 am Pacific Time.