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2016 Major-League Team-Performance Results


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Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games of Friday, 30 September 2016.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and—although there are a few words farther below on this page—we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser tab or window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Chicago Cubs.696113
Boston.637103
Washington.620100
LA Dodgers.584 95
Cleveland.574 93
Toronto.560 91
San Francisco.559 91
St. Louis.551 89
Detroit.543 88
NY Mets.529 86
Seattle.527 85
Baltimore.521 84
Houston.508 82
Texas.501 81
Miami.493 80
Colorado.491 80
NY Yankees.487 79
Tampa Bay.484 78
Chicago Sox.477 77
Pittsburgh.462 75
Milwaukee.459 74
Kansas City.451 73
Arizona.440 71
LA Angels.430 70
Atlanta.423 68
Oakland.423 69
Minnesota.420 68
San Diego.406 66
Philadelphia.388 63
Cincinnati.379 61


Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)


Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .620 Chicago Cubs    .696 LA Dodgers      .584 Boston          .637 Cleveland       .574 Seattle         .527
NY Mets         .529 * St. Louis     .551 * San Francisco .559 * Toronto       .560 * Detroit       .543 Houston         .508
Miami           .493 Pittsburgh      .462 Colorado        .491 Baltimore       .521 Chicago Sox     .477 Texas           .501
Atlanta         .423 Milwaukee       .459 Arizona         .440 NY Yankees      .487 Kansas City     .451 LA Angels       .430
Philadelphia    .388 Cincinnati      .379 San Diego       .406 Tampa Bay       .484 Minnesota       .420 Oakland         .423

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .581 Chicago Cubs    .638 LA Dodgers      .569 Boston          .581 Cleveland       .579 Texas           .594
* NY Mets       .538 St. Louis       .525 * San Francisco .531 * Baltimore     .550 * Detroit       .541 Seattle         .538
Miami           .497 Pittsburgh      .488 Colorado        .469 Toronto         .544 Kansas City     .506 Houston         .519
Philadelphia    .438 Milwaukee       .444 San Diego       .425 NY Yankees      .519 Chicago Sox     .488 LA Angels       .456
Atlanta         .415 Cincinnati      .419 Arizona         .419 Tampa Bay       .413 Minnesota       .356 Oakland         .419

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the Owlcroft formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources—actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TOP/TPP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games—"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column—"Seasonal"—is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.

Team Performance Stats Table
Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona160 770 740 868 883 67 67 0 70 -3 -3
Atlanta159 657 643 767 776 66 65 1 67 -1 -1
Baltimore160 743 736 712 706 88 83 5 83 5 5
Boston160 870 874 660 688 93 98 -5102 -9 -9
Chicago Cubs160 803 797 540 545102108 -6111 -9 -10
Chicago Sox160 698 683 731 703 78 78 0 76 2 2
Cincinnati160 679 705 866 843 67 66 1 61 6 7
Cleveland159 755 768 651 671 92 89 3 91 1 1
Colorado160 817 838 832 850 75 79 -4 79 -4 -4
Detroit159 765 747 702 715 86 83 3 86 0 0
Houston160 716 720 704 693 83 83 0 81 2 2
Kansas City160 669 670 738 703 81 76 5 72 9 9
LA Angels160 667 709 768 723 73 78 -5 69 4 4
LA Dodgers160 709 724 599 628 91 91 0 93 -2 -3
Miami159 681 647 691 670 79 77 2 78 1 0
Milwaukee160 693 661 752 726 71 73 -2 73 -2 -2
Minnesota160 734 710 861 886 57 63 -6 67-10 -10
NY Mets160 701 664 662 609 86 86 0 85 1 1
NY Yankees160 682 671 700 694 83 77 6 78 5 5
Oakland160 624 641 728 751 67 68 -1 68 -1 -1
Philadelphia160 617 602 772 789 70 60 10 62 8 8
Pittsburgh160 729 722 787 744 78 78 0 74 4 4
San Diego160 628 679 759 758 68 72 -4 65 3 3
Seattle160 750 758 710 695 86 86 0 84 2 2
San Francisco160 711 705 632 630 85 88 -3 89 -4 -5
St. Louis160 767 765 692 705 84 86 -2 88 -4 -4
Tampa Bay160 692 662 714 708 66 75 -9 77-11 -11
Texas160 743 760 742 747 95 81 14 80 15 15
Toronto160 746 753 662 662 87 90 -3 90 -3 -3
Washington160 754 751 593 604 93 96 -3 99 -6 -6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP17.2 runs2.5%2.2 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP18.4 runs2.6%3 runs
Games Won from R/OR3.43 wins----0.1 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP4.57 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence—that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 20 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.




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