The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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• Background  ▼
  • 
    Our Home Page
    
  • For You Rookies Here
    
  • Some Baseball Analysis Theory
    
  • Baseball Stat Definitions
    
  • Baseball Data Normalization
    
  • The “Quality of Pitching” Measure
    
  • Fielding and Defense in Baseball
    
  • About the Team-Performance Table
    
• Teams  ▼
  • 
    The Main Team-Performance Table Set
    
  • 
    By-Team Performance by Players & Pitchers   ▸
    • 
      · Showing Team & Player Current-Season Data
      
    • 
      · Showing Team & Player Career Data
      
    • 
      · Team & Player Current vs. Expected Stats, Batting
      
    • 
      · Team & Player Current vs. Expected Stats, Pitching
      
    
    
  • 
    All-Teams Table: Win Expectations From Player Career Stats
    
  • 
    All-Teams Table: Defense
    
• Players ▼
  • 
    Batters   ◂
    • 
      
      Sorted by Performance:  Current-Season Stats
       Career Stats
       Career Stats, 500 PA minimum
      
    • 
      Sorted by Name:  Current-Season Stats
       Career Stats
       Career Stats, 500 PA minimum
      
    • 
      In Performance Order by Position(s) Played, Current Season:  C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | P
      
    • 
      Alphabetically by Position(s) Played, Current Season:  C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | P
      
    • 
      In Performance Order by Position(s) Played, Career:  C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | P
      
    • 
      Alphabetically by Position(s) Played, Career:  C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | P
      
    • 
      Frequent-Use Position Players, by performance
    • 
      Frequent-Use Position Players, by name
      
  • 
    Pitchers   ◂
    • 
      
      Sorted by Performance:  Current-Season Stats
       Career Stats
       Career Stats, 100 BFP minimum
      
    • 
      Sorted by Name:  Current-Season Stats
       Career Stats
       Career Stats, 100 BFP minimum
      
    • 
      In Performance Order by Role, Current Season:  SP | RP
      
    • 
      Alphabetically by Role, Current Season:  SP | RP
      
    • 
      In Performance Order by Role, Career:  SP | RP
      
    • 
      Alphabetically by Role, Career:  SP | RP
      
    • 
      Frequent-Use Starters and Relievers, by performance
    • 
      Frequent-Use Starters and Relievers, by name
      
    
    
• Miscellaneous ▼
  • 
    The Juiced Ball
    
  • Steroids and Baseball (external site)
    
  • The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Formulae Tested
    
  • The Owlcroft “TOP” Formula: Tabular Results
    
  • Calculating the Effects of Fielding on Wins
    
  • Making Optimum Use of Players and Pitchers
    
  • About Owlcroft
    
  • Links About Eric Walker
    
  • Links To A Select Few Other Useful Baseball Sites
    
• Books ▼
  • 
    About Buying Books On Line
    
  • Some Selected Baseball Books
    
  
  

2023 Projected Team-Performances

All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Thursday, 8 June 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team	Pct	Wins
Angels	0.574	93
Astros	0.599	97
Athletics	0.364	59
Blue Jays	0.599	97
Braves	0.630	102
Brewers	0.519	84
Cardinals	0.599	97
Cubs	0.512	83
Diamondbacks	0.531	86
Dodgers	0.673	109
Giants	0.562	91
Guardians	0.549	89
Mariners	0.568	92
Marlins	0.525	85
Mets	0.580	94
Nationals	0.432	70
Orioles	0.488	79
Padres	0.623	101
Phillies	0.568	92
Pirates	0.494	80
Rangers	0.525	85
Rays	0.531	86
Red Sox	0.574	93
Reds	0.457	74
Rockies	0.414	67
Royals	0.457	74
Tigers	0.438	71
Twins	0.556	90
White Sox	0.512	83
Yankees	0.549	89

Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team	Pct	Wins
Dodgers	0.673	109
Braves	0.630	102
Padres	0.623	101
Cardinals	0.599	97
Blue Jays	0.599	97
Astros	0.599	97
Mets	0.580	94
Red Sox	0.574	93
Angels	0.574	93
Phillies	0.568	92
Mariners	0.568	92
Giants	0.562	91
Twins	0.556	90
Yankees	0.549	89
Guardians	0.549	89
Rays	0.531	86
Diamondbacks	0.531	86
Rangers	0.525	85
Marlins	0.525	85
Brewers	0.519	84
White Sox	0.512	83
Cubs	0.512	83
Pirates	0.494	80
Orioles	0.488	79
Royals	0.457	74
Reds	0.457	74
Tigers	0.438	71
Nationals	0.432	70
Rockies	0.414	67
Athletics	0.364	59

Want detailed, careful, unhysterical analysis of the effects of “Performance-Enhancing Drugs” in baseball? Click here to visit the Steroids & Baseball web site.