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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2021 Projected Team-Performances


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Thursday, 6 May 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


2021 Expected Team Performances

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

(Team names are click-on links to their player/pitcher career stats.)


Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team Pct Wins
Angels 0.586 95
Astros 0.642 104
Athletics 0.549 89
Blue Jays 0.562 91
Braves 0.543 88
Brewers 0.488 79
Cardinals 0.593 96
Cubs 0.580 94
Diamondbacks 0.469 76
Dodgers 0.642 104
Giants 0.500 81
Indians 0.512 83
Mariners 0.370 60
Marlins 0.469 76
Mets 0.586 95
Nationals 0.543 88
Orioles 0.432 70
Padres 0.568 92
Phillies 0.531 86
Pirates 0.377 61
Rangers 0.457 74
Rays 0.562 91
Red Sox 0.537 87
Reds 0.494 80
Rockies 0.451 73
Royals 0.519 84
Tigers 0.414 67
Twins 0.562 91
White Sox 0.580 94
Yankees 0.630 102



Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team Pct Wins
Dodgers 0.642 104
Astros 0.642 104
Yankees 0.630 102
Cardinals 0.593 96
Mets 0.586 95
Angels 0.586 95
White Sox 0.580 94
Cubs 0.580 94
Padres 0.568 92
Twins 0.562 91
Rays 0.562 91
Blue Jays 0.562 91
Athletics 0.549 89
Nationals 0.543 88
Braves 0.543 88
Red Sox 0.537 87
Phillies 0.531 86
Royals 0.519 84
Indians 0.512 83
Giants 0.500 81
Reds 0.494 80
Brewers 0.488 79
Marlins 0.469 76
Diamondbacks 0.469 76
Rangers 0.457 74
Rockies 0.451 73
Orioles 0.432 70
Tigers 0.414 67
Pirates 0.377 61
Mariners 0.370 60




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This page was last modified on Friday, 7 May 2021, at 1:27 pm Pacific Time.