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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2021 Projected Team-Performances


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Wednesday, 20 October 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


2021 Expected Team Performances

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

(Team names are click-on links to their player/pitcher career stats.)


Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team Pct Wins
Angels 0.488 79
Astros 0.630 102
Athletics 0.543 88
Blue Jays 0.574 93
Braves 0.531 86
Brewers 0.549 89
Cardinals 0.574 93
Cubs 0.488 79
Diamondbacks 0.414 67
Dodgers 0.667 108
Giants 0.549 89
Indians 0.488 79
Mariners 0.420 68
Marlins 0.426 69
Mets 0.531 86
Nationals 0.475 77
Orioles 0.401 65
Padres 0.549 89
Phillies 0.537 87
Pirates 0.333 54
Rangers 0.389 63
Rays 0.574 93
Red Sox 0.537 87
Reds 0.525 85
Rockies 0.444 72
Royals 0.494 80
Tigers 0.438 71
Twins 0.525 85
White Sox 0.549 89
Yankees 0.593 96



Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team Pct Wins
Dodgers 0.667 108
Astros 0.630 102
Yankees 0.593 96
Rays 0.574 93
Cardinals 0.574 93
Blue Jays 0.574 93
White Sox 0.549 89
Padres 0.549 89
Giants 0.549 89
Brewers 0.549 89
Athletics 0.543 88
Red Sox 0.537 87
Phillies 0.537 87
Mets 0.531 86
Braves 0.531 86
Twins 0.525 85
Reds 0.525 85
Royals 0.494 80
Indians 0.488 79
Cubs 0.488 79
Angels 0.488 79
Nationals 0.475 77
Rockies 0.444 72
Tigers 0.438 71
Marlins 0.426 69
Mariners 0.420 68
Diamondbacks 0.414 67
Orioles 0.401 65
Rangers 0.389 63
Pirates 0.333 54




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This page was last modified on Thursday, 21 October 2021, at 1:40 pm Pacific Time.