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The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2023 Projected Team-Performances


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Sunday, 1 October 2023.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


2023 Expected Team Performances

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

(Team names are click-on links to their player/pitcher career stats.)


Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team Pct Wins
Angels 0.519 84
Astros 0.586 95
Athletics 0.364 59
Blue Jays 0.599 97
Braves 0.617 100
Brewers 0.549 89
Cardinals 0.543 88
Cubs 0.543 88
Diamondbacks 0.519 84
Dodgers 0.654 106
Giants 0.525 85
Guardians 0.537 87
Mariners 0.574 93
Marlins 0.525 85
Mets 0.556 90
Nationals 0.407 66
Orioles 0.531 86
Padres 0.617 100
Phillies 0.586 95
Pirates 0.451 73
Rangers 0.531 86
Rays 0.525 85
Red Sox 0.537 87
Reds 0.494 80
Rockies 0.395 64
Royals 0.444 72
Tigers 0.475 77
Twins 0.568 92
White Sox 0.475 77
Yankees 0.543 88



Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team Pct Wins
Dodgers 0.654 106
Padres 0.617 100
Braves 0.617 100
Blue Jays 0.599 97
Phillies 0.586 95
Astros 0.586 95
Mariners 0.574 93
Twins 0.568 92
Mets 0.556 90
Brewers 0.549 89
Yankees 0.543 88
Cubs 0.543 88
Cardinals 0.543 88
Red Sox 0.537 87
Guardians 0.537 87
Rangers 0.531 86
Orioles 0.531 86
Rays 0.525 85
Marlins 0.525 85
Giants 0.525 85
Diamondbacks 0.519 84
Angels 0.519 84
Reds 0.494 80
White Sox 0.475 77
Tigers 0.475 77
Pirates 0.451 73
Royals 0.444 72
Nationals 0.407 66
Rockies 0.395 64
Athletics 0.364 59




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 4 February 2024, at 6:24 pm Pacific Time.