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The Owlcroft Baseball-Analysis Site

Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2024 Projected Team-Performances


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Thursday, 25 July 2024.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


2024 Expected Team Performances

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

(Team names are click-on links to their player/pitcher career stats.)


Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team Pct Wins
Angels 0.463 75
Astros 0.568 92
Athletics 0.444 72
Blue Jays 0.549 89
Braves 0.593 96
Brewers 0.531 86
Cardinals 0.562 91
Cubs 0.549 89
Diamondbacks 0.531 86
Dodgers 0.623 101
Giants 0.519 84
Guardians 0.543 88
Mariners 0.562 91
Marlins 0.444 72
Mets 0.556 90
Nationals 0.457 74
Orioles 0.568 92
Padres 0.549 89
Phillies 0.593 96
Pirates 0.525 85
Rangers 0.494 80
Rays 0.512 83
Red Sox 0.549 89
Reds 0.531 86
Rockies 0.395 64
Royals 0.512 83
Tigers 0.525 85
Twins 0.562 91
White Sox 0.401 65
Yankees 0.611 99



Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team Pct Wins
Dodgers 0.623 101
Yankees 0.611 99
Phillies 0.593 96
Braves 0.593 96
Orioles 0.568 92
Astros 0.568 92
Twins 0.562 91
Mariners 0.562 91
Cardinals 0.562 91
Mets 0.556 90
Red Sox 0.549 89
Padres 0.549 89
Cubs 0.549 89
Blue Jays 0.549 89
Guardians 0.543 88
Reds 0.531 86
Diamondbacks 0.531 86
Brewers 0.531 86
Tigers 0.525 85
Pirates 0.525 85
Giants 0.519 84
Royals 0.512 83
Rays 0.512 83
Rangers 0.494 80
Angels 0.463 75
Nationals 0.457 74
Marlins 0.444 72
Athletics 0.444 72
White Sox 0.401 65
Rockies 0.395 64




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This page was last modified on Friday, 26 July 2024, at 7:42 am Pacific Time.