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Baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately.

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2021 Projected Team-Performances


All raw data supplied courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
They do a wonderful job, and deserve your support.

Through games of Saturday, 31 July 2021.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.


2021 Expected Team Performances

These tables use the data found on the Projected Team Batting and Projected Team Pitching pages, which—see the explanations on those pages for details—project expected team runs scored and yielded based on the players’ and pitchers’ career stats to date, pro-rated by their actual percentages of team play time. The runs-scored and runs-allowed stats from those are then here used to calculate “expected” wins. These tables are essentially the answer to “How good are they really?”

But…these results depend heavily on just which players and pitchers get how much play time each, things that can vary considerably depending on many things, notably injuries and managerial whim—so this is not an “ultimate measure” of a team’s potential unless player use was perfectly optimal (meaning, to slightly over-simplify, that the best players got the most time).

(Team names are click-on links to their player/pitcher career stats.)


Teams Listed Alphabetically by Name
Team Pct Wins
Angels 0.531 86
Astros 0.623 101
Athletics 0.543 88
Blue Jays 0.562 91
Braves 0.525 85
Brewers 0.549 89
Cardinals 0.543 88
Cubs 0.537 87
Diamondbacks 0.414 67
Dodgers 0.630 102
Giants 0.525 85
Indians 0.463 75
Mariners 0.383 62
Marlins 0.463 75
Mets 0.537 87
Nationals 0.531 86
Orioles 0.414 67
Padres 0.568 92
Phillies 0.531 86
Pirates 0.358 58
Rangers 0.407 66
Rays 0.556 90
Red Sox 0.525 85
Reds 0.512 83
Rockies 0.444 72
Royals 0.488 79
Tigers 0.457 74
Twins 0.531 86
White Sox 0.543 88
Yankees 0.599 97



Teams Listed by Projected Performance
Team Pct Wins
Dodgers 0.630 102
Astros 0.623 101
Yankees 0.599 97
Padres 0.568 92
Blue Jays 0.562 91
Rays 0.556 90
Brewers 0.549 89
White Sox 0.543 88
Cardinals 0.543 88
Athletics 0.543 88
Mets 0.537 87
Cubs 0.537 87
Twins 0.531 86
Phillies 0.531 86
Nationals 0.531 86
Angels 0.531 86
Red Sox 0.525 85
Giants 0.525 85
Braves 0.525 85
Reds 0.512 83
Royals 0.488 79
Marlins 0.463 75
Indians 0.463 75
Tigers 0.457 74
Rockies 0.444 72
Orioles 0.414 67
Diamondbacks 0.414 67
Rangers 0.407 66
Mariners 0.383 62
Pirates 0.358 58




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This page was last modified on Sunday, 1 August 2021, at 1:40 pm Pacific Time.